Cohort Size and Unemployment Rate: New Insights from Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 122-151
Author(s):  
Ademola Obafemi Young
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Cohort Size ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Pooled Data ◽  
Dynamic Framework ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

The debate on the nature of the relationship between cohort size and unemployment rate has been widely studied and generated a substantial body of literature in labor economics discourse. However, an in-depth reading of this literature suggests that, besides the fact that findings are mixed and do not provide conclusive evidences, one hardly ever comes across studies exclusively on African countries. Likewise, generalized studies across countries employing pooled data seem to dominate the literature. In light of these, the current study examines the nature of the said relationship, over the period 1970–2019, in Nigeria in a multivariate and dynamic framework. Employing Bounds testing procedure, the article finds that both the short-run and long-run impacts of cohort size on overall unemployment rate are positive and statistically significant. This suggests that aggregate unemployment rate tends to be higher when many young people supply labor. In view of these findings, the article recommends that government should collaborate with private sector to develop and implement functional microcredit schemes. Such schemes should be flexibly structured to avert institutional bottlenecks and enhance accountability and transparency in their management.

scholarly journals Unemployment Rate and Cohort Size: New Insights from Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
ADEMOLA OBAFEMI YOUNG
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Cohort Size ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Pooled Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Annual Time Series

Abstract The nature of the relationship between unemployment rate and the size of a specifically defined age group, or cohort, notably the young workers in the working-age population, has been a subject of an intense debate, widely studied and generated a sizable body of literature. However, while the debate is still inconclusive, an in-depth reading of these expansive extant and crescive literatures suggests that besides the contradictory findings, one of the major drawbacks with these literatures is that hardly any studies have been reported exclusively for African countries, as most of the extant literature principally focused on European, Asian, and American economies. Moreover, generalized studies across countries employing pooled data appears to dominate the literature. Thus, using annual time series secondary data spanning between the period 1970 and 2019, this study employs bounds testing approach to co-integration to examine the nature of the aforementioned relationship in Nigeria. Empirical results obtained revealed that cohort size has an overwhelming positive and statistically significant impact on unemployment rate both in the short- and long-run, suggesting that the size of one’s generation, has repercussions not only on (un)employment outcomes of that particular group but also on other age groups in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Tourism and economic growth in Greece: An ARDL bound testing approach in a Kaldorian framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 70 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-227
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Spinthiropoulos ◽  
Christos Nikas ◽  
Eleni Zafeiriou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThe purpose of the study is to examine the relationship between tourism development and economic growth in Greece, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-Bounds testing procedure. The present paper attempts to examine the relevance of the tourism led growth hypothesis according to the Kaldorian theory. The analysis was carried out for the period from 1963 to 2016 and involves the short-run as well as the log-run impact. As a proxy for the output of the tourism sector, its receipts are employed, while as an index for economic growth, the GDP is employed. The empirical results show that the economy of Greece can recover and return to the long-run equilibrium with a speed of adjustment 7.17% per year.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Current Account Deficits and Growth in Montenegro: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Özer ◽  
Jovana Žugić ◽  
Sonja Tomaš-Miskin
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract In this study, we investigate the relationship between current account deficits and growth in Montenegro by applying the bounds testing (ARDL) approach to co-integration for the period from the third quarter of 2011 to the last quarter of 2016. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run when growth is the dependent variable. The results also confirm a bidirectional long run and short run causal relationship between current account deficits and growth. The short run results mostly indicate a negative relationship between changes in the current account deficit GDP ratio and the GDP growth rate. This means that any increase of the value of independent variable (current account deficit GDP ratio) will result in decrease of the rate of GDP growth and vice versa. The long-run effect of the current account deficit to GDP ratio on GDP growth is positive. The constant (β0) is positive but also the (β1), meaning that with the increase of CAD GDP ratio of 1 measuring unit, the GDP growth rate would grow by 0,5459. This positive and tight correlation could be explained by overlapping structure of the constituents of CAD and the drivers of GDP growth (such as tourism, energy sector, agriculture etc.). The results offer new perspectives and insights for new policy aiming for sustainable economic growth of Montenegro.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Factors and Equity Prices: An Empirical Investigation by Using ARDL Approach

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (4II) ◽  
pp. 501-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arshad Hasan ◽  
Zafar Mueen Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between macroeconomic variables and the equity prices has attracted the curiosity of academicians and practitioners since the publication of seminal paper of Chen, et al. (1986). Many empirical studies those tested the relationship reveal that asset pricing theories do not properly identify macroeconomic factors that influence equity prices [Roll and Ross (1980); Fama (1981); Chen, et al. (1986); Hamao (1986); Faff (1988); Chen (1991); Maysami and Koh (2000) and Paul and Mallik (2001)]. In most of these studies, variable selection and empirical analyses is based on economic rationale, financial theory and investors’ intuition. These studies generally apply Eagle and Granger (1987) procedure or Johanson and Jusilieus (1990, 1991) approach in Vector Auto Regressor (VAR) Framework. In Pakistan, Fazal (2006) and Nishat (2001) explored the relationship between macroeconomic factors and equity prices by using Johanson and Jusilieus (1990, 1991) procedure. The present study tests the relationship between macroeconomic variables such as inflation, industrial production, oil prices, short term interest rate, exchange rates, foreign portfolio investment, money supply and equity prices by using Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1996, 2001). The ARDL approach in an errorcorrection setting has been widely applied to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on economic growth but it is strongly underutilised in the capital market filament of literature. This methodology has a number of advantages over the other models. First, determining the order of integration of macroeconomic factors and equity market returns is not an important issue here because the Pesaran ARDL approach yields consistent estimates of the long-run coefficients that are asymptotically normal irrespective of whether the underlying regressors are I(0) or I(1) and of the extent of cointegration. Secondly, the ARDL approach allows exploring correct dynamic structure while many econometric procedures do not allow to clearly distinguish between long run and short run relationships.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

scholarly journals Modelling the Temporal Effect of Terrorism on Tourism in Kenya

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian K. Masinde ◽  
Steven Buigut ◽  
Joseph K. Mung'atu
Keyword(s):  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

<p>Terrorist attacks have escalated over the recent years in Kenya, with adverse effects on the tourism industry. This study aims to establish if a long-run equilibrium exists between terrorism and tourism in Kenya between the years 1994 and 2014. To reinforce the robustness of the results, both Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) techniques are used to investigate the problem. A Granger causality test is also carried out to ascertain the direction of the relationship if one exists. The evidence from ARDL and the VECM testing procedure suggest that there is no long-run equilibrium between terrorism and tourism in Kenya. Terrorism does not Granger cause tourism and vice versa. However, short-run effect indicates that terrorism negatively and significantly affects tourism.</p>

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

scholarly journals Examining the Relationship between Financial Development and International Trade in Croatia

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vlatka Bilas ◽  
Mile Bosnjak ◽  
Ivan Novak
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between financial development and international trade in Croatia over the period from the first quarter of 1997 and the last quarter of 2015. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied to examine the long-run and short-run relationships among the series. The research hypothesis is accepted and the relationship between financial development and international trade in Croatia is established and confirmed. The research results reveal unidirectional Granger causality from financial development to international trade at the 10% significance level, and negative long-run and the positive short-run relationships between financial developments and international trade in Croatia.

Industry level J-curve in Turkey

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 689-706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nazif Durmaz
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Industry Level ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Curve Effect ◽  
Short Run

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the J-Curve effect in Turkey at the industry level. Design/methodology/approach – In order to find the long-run and short-run effects, 58 industries (by Standard International Trade Classification Rev.3) have been identified by using monthly data that covers the periods from January 1990 to December 2012. Present study employs bounds testing procedure, developed by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001). Findings – Although results indicate a positive satisfactory effect of real depreciation of lira in 13 industries, the J-Curve effect is detected in only 13 industries. Originality/value – The present study is one of the first studies to analyze the J-Curve effect at the industry level on Turkey. In addition to being one of the first studies, it will be an invaluable addition to the J-Curve literature.

scholarly journals Education Expenditure and Economic Growth in Mauritius: An Application of the Bounds Testing Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tafirenyika Sunde
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
The Other ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Education Expenditure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Investments In Education

This study examines the relationship between education expenditure and economic growth in Mauritius. The study employed the ARDL bounds testing methodology for the period 1976 to 2016. The study found that education expenditure Granger causes economic growth in Mauritius in the short run. In addition, the study also found that economic growth does not Granger cause education expenditure in Mauritius in the short run. However, in the long-run, the study found that there are long run relationships between education expenditure and economic growth in both equations; and this means that an increase in either of the variables will eventually lead to an increase in the other variable. The study, therefore, found support for the hypothesis that investment in education raises economic growth. This means that Mauritius has the potential to benefit from further investments in education in the future.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document