Environmental Change, Migration, and Conflict in Africa: A Critical Examination of the Interconnections

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 351-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Freeman

How should we understand the interconnections between environmental change, migration, and conflict in Africa? Should the rise of Islamic terrorism and Boko Haram in northeast Nigeria be directly linked to the drying of Lake Chad? Should cattle raiding in Kenya be seen as a result of drought across East Africa? Does the constrained migration of the pastoral Tuareg in the Sahel causally connect to desertification and their rebellion against governmental forces? Despite the compelling and often persuasive case for directly connecting environmental change to migration and conflict, there is a growing agreement in both the environment-migration and climate-conflict spheres that intervening variables determine if and how environmental change causes population movements and political violence. This article presents a case for migration as an intermediary and bidirectional causal variable. The article argues that close attention needs to be paid to local-level manifestations of conflict and (mal)adaptive forms of migration to understand the potential propensity of environmental change to lead to conflict in Africa.

Reviews: The Study of Government: Political Science and Public Administration, The Psychology of Politics, The Politics of Communication: A Study in the Political Sociology of Language, Socialization and Legitimation, The Structure of Social Science: A Philosophical Introduction, Political Learning, Political Choice and Democratic Citizenship, The Political Character of Adolescence: The Influence of Families and Schools, Mathematical Approaches to Politics, Funktionsanalyse Und Politische Theorie, The Collected Works of Walter Bagehot. Vols. V–VIII the Political Essays, The Conservative Nation, The House of Commons: Services and Facilities, Marketing Boards and Ministers: A Study of Agricultural Marketing Boards as Political and Administrative Instruments, Studies in Social Science and Planning, Politics by Pressure, The Problem of Party Government, Modern Social Politics in Britain and Sweden: From Relief to Income Maintenance, Comparative Revolutionary Movements, Mass Political Violence: A Cross-National Causal Analysis, The Communists in Spain, Amicable Agreement versus Majority Rule, Uncertain Passage—China's Transition to the Post-Mao Era, Soviet Politics and Political Science, Malaysia—New States in a New Nation, General Elections in South Africa 1943–1970, Fascism in Italy: Society and Culture 1922–1945, The History of the Nazi Party: Volume II, 1933–1945, The Aryan Myth: A History of Racist and Nationalist Ideas in Europe, Europe in Question, The Defence of Western Europe, Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy, The Foreign Policies of the Powers, Survey of Commonwealth Affairs. Problems of Expansion and Attrition 1953–1969, Testing Theories of Economic Imperialism, Daughter of a Revolutionary: Natalie Herzen and the Bakunin-Nechayev Circle, Bukharin and the Bolshevik Revolution. A Political Biography, 1888–1938, The Liberal Theory of Justice: A Critical Examination of the Principal Doctrines in A Theory of Justice, Contemporary Thought and Politics, The Essex Reference Index: British Journals on Politics and Sociology. 1950–1973

1975 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 514-571
Author(s):  
R. G. S. Brown ◽  
H. J. Eysenck ◽  
B. G. Stacey ◽  
Alan Ryan ◽  
Shawn W. Rosenberg ◽  
...  

1999 ◽  
Vol 77 (10) ◽  
pp. 1530-1539 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivian de Buffrénil ◽  
Frédérique Rimblot-Baly

Sexual maturation and ontogenetic development of gametes were studied in a sample of 481 female Nile monitor lizards (Varanus niloticus L.) (18.8-71.5 cm snout-vent length (SVL)) from the Lake Chad region in Chad and Nigeria and the central delta of the Niger River in Mali. The timing of egg maturation suggests that only one large clutch can be produced in 12 months, and that egg laying occurs between late November and early January. Each year, about 45-50% of mature females, on average, lay eggs, but local sampling shows that this proportion varies greatly. Females reach sexual maturity at 36 ± 2 cm SVL and 24 months of age. Clutch size (CS) increases from 12-13 to 53-60 eggs (average values for specimens of 36 cm and 71.5 cm SVL, respectively) with increase in SVL, according to the power function CS = 0.0049 SVL2.206 (specimens from Mali) or CS = 0.0052 SVL2.163 (specimens from the Lake Chad region). Conversely, the relative mass of the clutches (RCM) and their relative energy content (RWC) decrease during growth; hence, small (young) individuals are subjected to a much higher reproductive effort than large ones. Compared with that of most other large varanids, egg mass in the Nile monitor (38.8 g) is small, but reproductive output (CS) and effort (RCM, RWC) appear to be very high. Moreover, the specimens from Mali, where the species is heavily exploited, have a higher reproductive output and shorter longevity than those from the Lake Chad region. These data are discussed with reference to the ecology and local level of exploitation of the Nile monitor.


Author(s):  
Ruslan V. Dmitriev ◽  
Stanislav A. Gorokhov ◽  
Ivan A. Zakharov

The article discusses the expansion of the Islamic extremist groups (especially Boko Haram) in the Lake Chad basin countries. The geopolitical zones and states of Nigeria, regions of Niger and Cameroon, macro-regions of Chad were selected as the territorial range. The religious affiliation data has been compiled from the DHS-database. Income levels and literacy rates were evaluated indirectly using body mass index and the degree of age-heaping (modified Whipple's index), respectively. A hierarchical cluster analysis, has allowed us to categorize the territorial-administrative units into four groups by the probability of new Islamic extremist groups appearing there. The article clearly shows that Boko Haram may expand in the Western and North-Western directions. Meanwhile, the new cells are more likely to form inside Nigeria than outside it. Thus, in the near future, theexpansion of Islamic extremist organizations in the Lake Chad basin countries will occur at the local level. Keywords: Lake Chad basin countries, Islamic Extremism, Boko Haram, expansion.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graciela Gil-Romera ◽  
Lucas Bittner ◽  
David A. Grady ◽  
Laura S. Epp ◽  
Götz Ossendorf ◽  
...  

<p><span>The advent of pastoralism in Eastern Africa is one of the most significant cultural transformations in the continent’s history. Traditionally, herding origins and its spreading routes have been studied in the lowlands and described as a complex and lengthy process that began before 4 ka BP and lasted until 1.3 ka BP. This cultural transition has long been argued to have been a process involving both environmental change and population movements. </span><span>Given the current patchy </span><span>archaeological data, most studies studies conclude that no single factor can be identified as a driver of the onset of herding in Eastern Africa, but almost all evidence is from lowland areas. The higher elevations of the Eastern African mountains are sensitive to climate and environmental change, so may be ideal for testing hypotheses of human-environmental relationships. However, the history of pastoralism in the African highlands, especially its connection with regional herding migrations and Holocene climate change, has thus far been poorly explored with few available records. </span></p><p><span> In this contribution, we provide evidence of early pastoral activities at high altitude in the Bale Mountains of southwest Ethiopia. We present a 4000-year multiproxy palaeoecological lacustrine sequence from Garba Guracha, a cirque lake at 3950 m asl, combining palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental proxies. Our record indicates the distinctive presence of faecal fungal spores (</span><span><em>Sporormiella, Cercospora, Podospora</em></span><span>) and the expansion of pollen and </span><span><em>seda</em></span><span>DNA from ruderal plants as early as 3.5 ka. To our knowledge, this is the highest altitude record of early animal husbandry traces on the continent. Coeval with the expansion of pastoralism indicators in Garba Guracha, we find important changes in the lake’s diatom community, as well as climate fluctuations reconstructed from biomarkers; these may be critical for understanding human occupation at high altitudes. However, archaeological studies conducted in the Garba Guracha basin have proved unfruitful in finding permanent settlements of herders, </span><span>suggesting</span><span> hypothes</span><span>es</span><span> of seasonal resource use. </span></p><p><span> We discuss different scenarios of pastoral expansion on the Eastern African highlands under changing local climates, as well as the general context of pastoralist migration across Eastern Africa. </span></p>


1988 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 773-793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah H. Schlanger

In spite of considerable fluctuations in the likelihood of agricultural success from place to place and from time to time, the southern Colorado Plateaus show a smooth increase in farming populations between A.D. 1 and 1150. At the local level, however, population curves in this region often register a pattern of short-lived occupations and abandonments that are tied to specific patterns of short-term and long-term climatic conditions. The prehistoric population record from the Dolores area, in the southwestern corner of Colorado, demonstrates how localized population adjustments to climatically sensitive environments can result in long-term population increases. Here, a 600-year history of population increase was maintained primarily through population movements between environmentally complementary places. When that strategy failed, due to a combination of adverse short-term and long-term climatic conditions, agricultural methods shifted from rainfall farming to intensified agriculture supported by water-control facilities.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 8565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beatrice Asenso Barnieh ◽  
Li Jia ◽  
Massimo Menenti ◽  
Jie Zhou ◽  
Yelong Zeng

Post-classification change detection was applied to examine the nature of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) transitions in West Africa in three time intervals (1975–2000, 2000–2013, and 1975–2013). Detailed analyses at hotspots coupled with comparison of LULC transitions in the humid and arid regions were undertaken. Climate and anthropic drivers of environmental change were disentangled by the LULC transitions analyses. The results indicated that human-managed LULC types have replaced the natural LULC types. The total vegetation cover declined by −1.6%. Massive net gains in croplands (107.8%) and settlements (140%) at the expense of natural vegetation were detected in the entire period (1975–2013). Settlements expanded in parallel with cropland, which suggests the effort to increase food production to support the increasing population. Expansion of artificial water bodies were detected in the humid regions during the period of 1975–2000. Nonetheless, shrinking of water bodies due to encroachment by wetlands and other vegetation was observed in the arid regions, coupled with net loss in the whole of West Africa. The results indicate deforestation and degradation of natural vegetation and water resources in West Africa. Underlying anthropic drivers and a combination of anthropic and climate drivers were detected. LULC transitions in West Africa are location specific and have both positive and negative implications on the environment. The transitions indicate how processes at the local level, driven by human activities, lead to changes at the continental level and may contribute to global environmental change.


2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 90-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith Krause

In discussions of conflict, war and political violence, dead bodies count. Although the politics and practices associated with the collection of violent-death data are seldom subject to critical examination, they are crucial to how scholars and practitioners think about how and why conflict and violence erupt. Knowledge about conflict deaths – the who, what, where, when, why and how – is a form of expertise, created, disseminated and used by different agents. This article highlights the ways in which body counts are deployed as social facts and forms of knowledge that are used to shape and influence policies and practices associated with armed conflict. It traces the way in which conflict-death data emerged, and then examines critically some of the practices and assumptions of data collection to shed light on how claims to expertise are enacted and on how the public arena connects (or not) with scholarly conflict expertise.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (31) ◽  
pp. eabg4778
Author(s):  
Andre Python ◽  
Andreas Bender ◽  
Anita K. Nandi ◽  
Penelope A. Hancock ◽  
Rohan Arambepola ◽  
...  

Several thousand people die every year worldwide because of terrorist attacks perpetrated by non-state actors. In this context, reliable and accurate short-term predictions of non-state terrorism at the local level are key for policy makers to target preventative measures. Using only publicly available data, we show that predictive models that include structural and procedural predictors can accurately predict the occurrence of non-state terrorism locally and a week ahead in regions affected by a relatively high prevalence of terrorism. In these regions, theoretically informed models systematically outperform models using predictors built on past terrorist events only. We further identify and interpret the local effects of major global and regional terrorism drivers. Our study demonstrates the potential of theoretically informed models to predict and explain complex forms of political violence at policy-relevant scales.


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