Tests of whether candidate A or B would fare better against C—and other polling enrichments to open up party strategy

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 828-840
Author(s):  
Richard F Potthoff

Our main setting is a single-winner election contested by two major parties. A goal is to find whether candidate A or B of one party would be the stronger opponent running against candidate C of the other party. A poll (as many polls do) asks the same set of respondents to choose both between A and C and between B and C. The classical McNemar test and two novel extensions thereof can evaluate the difference between A and B regarding their strength against C. The first extension treats the case where some respondents answer one question but not both, a condition that the McNemar test itself does not handle well. The second covers the case where respondents who do not answer a question are probed further to see if they lean toward either candidate. We provide empirical examples related to the 2016 US presidential election. The A-versus-B strength difference vis-à-vis C can be statistically significant even if the difference between A’s showing against C and B’s showing against C is small. We argue finally that other insights helpful to party and candidate strategy can also emerge from novel augmentations to polling practices.

Author(s):  
Kevin Munger

Abstract I conduct an experiment which examines the impact of moral suasion on partisans engaged in uncivil arguments. Partisans often respond in vitriolic ways to politicians they disagree with, and this can engender hateful responses from partisans from the other side. This phenomenon was especially common during the contentious 2016 US Presidential Election. Using Twitter accounts that I controlled, I sanctioned people engaged partisan incivility in October 2016. I found that messages containing moral suasion were more effective at reducing incivility than were messages with no moral content in the first week post-treatment. There were no significant treatment effects in the first day post-treatment, emphasizing the need for research designs that measure effect duration. The type of moral suasion employed, however, did not have the expected differential effect on either Republicans or Democrats. These effects were significantly moderated by the anonymity of the subjects.


Author(s):  
Chris Holden

This chapter analyses the connections between Donald Trump and Brexit, particularly the role and nature of globalisation and related economic changes, asking how a socially progressive form of globalisation might respond to the challenges laid down by these two seismic political victories. The results of the UK's referendum on EU membership and the US presidential election in 2016 have caused many commentators to re-evaluate the assumptions of neoliberal globalisation. Trump's election, in particular, poses a challenge not only to neoliberal economics, but also to liberal democratic politics and the rule of law — both domestically and internationally. The chapter then argues for an alternative vision to that of neoliberal globalisation on the one hand, and a resort to reactionary nationalism on the other: a clear commitment to tackle the gross inequalities that have characterised the period of neoliberal globalisation and to work towards socially just forms of global governance.


2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-161
Author(s):  
Shah Nister Kabir

AbstractExamining the coverage of the 2016 US Presidential election of the highest circulating New Zealand newspaper—the New Zealand Herald (NZH)—this study argues that this newspaper sets agenda against Donald Trump—the Republican Party candidate in the 2016 US election. Examining all news, editorials and photographs published in NZH, it discursively argues that this newspaper overshadowed and dehumanized Trump and especially his leadership ability. The other major candidate—the Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton—was applauded in the coverage. The NZH repeatedly focused upon the activities of Trump through news, views and images to dehumanize him. The repetition, therefore, does not necessarily mean that a particular media outlet favors a particular candidate. It also argues that the media outlet of a distant nation that cannot influence its reader to vote for a particular candidate may still set the agenda in favor of a candidate.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Pettis

This thesis examines Internet memes, a unique medium that has the capability to easily and seamlessly transfer ideologies between groups. It argues that these media can potentially enable subcultures to challenge, and possibly overthrow, hegemonic power structures that maintain the dominance of a mainstream culture. I trace the meme from its creation by Matt Furie in 2005 to its appearance in the 2016 US Presidential Election and examine how its meaning has changed throughout its history. I define the difference between a meme instance and the meme as a whole, and conclude that the meaning of the overall meme is formed by the sum of its numerous meme instances. This structure is unique to the medium of Internet memes and is what enables subcultures to use them to easily transfer ideologies in order to challenge the hegemony of dominant cultures.Dick Hebdige provides a model by which a dominant culture can reclaim the images and symbols used by a subculture through the process of commodification. Using the Pepe the Frog meme as a case study, I argue that Hebdige’s commodification model does not apply to Internet memes, because traditional concepts of ownership and control affect Internet memes differently. As such, the medium enables subcultures to claim and redefine an image to challenge a dominant culture. Unlike with other forms of media, it is difficult for the dominant culture to exert its power or control over Internet memes. Internet memes, therefore, have significant real-world implications and potential to empower subcultures.


2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 357-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond Fisman ◽  
Eric Zitzewitz

We propose a stock market-based measure to capture initial beliefs about an event’s effect on firm profits, which may be used to measure whether initial expectations are subsequently realized. Our “Event Long-Short Index” is the difference in market-capitalization-weighted returns of firms that outperform versus underperform the market on the event date. We use post-event index returns to measure whether initial beliefs are reinforced or attenuated. We apply our approach to the 2016 US presidential election and Brexit referendum to illustrate the index and its interpretation and to validate it, showing that it moves as expected following subsequent political and business news. (JEL D22, D72, D83, G14, L25)


1973 ◽  
Vol 29 (02) ◽  
pp. 490-498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroh Yamazaki ◽  
Itsuro Kobayashi ◽  
Tadahiro Sano ◽  
Takio Shimamoto

SummaryThe authors previously reported a transient decrease in adhesive platelet count and an enhancement of blood coagulability after administration of a small amount of adrenaline (0.1-1 µg per Kg, i. v.) in man and rabbit. In such circumstances, the sensitivity of platelets to aggregation induced by ADP was studied by an optical density method. Five minutes after i. v. injection of 1 µg per Kg of adrenaline in 10 rabbits, intensity of platelet aggregation increased to 115.1 ± 4.9% (mean ± S. E.) by 10∼5 molar, 121.8 ± 7.8% by 3 × 10-6 molar and 129.4 ± 12.8% of the value before the injection by 10”6 molar ADP. The difference was statistically significant (P<0.01-0.05). The above change was not observed in each group of rabbits injected with saline, 1 µg per Kg of 1-noradrenaline or 0.1 and 10 µg per Kg of adrenaline. Also, it was prevented by oral administration of 10 mg per Kg of phenoxybenzamine or propranolol or aspirin or pyridinolcarbamate 3 hours before the challenge. On the other hand, the enhancement of ADP-induced platelet aggregation was not observed in vitro, when 10-5 or 3 × 10-6 molar and 129.4 ± 12.8% of the value before 10∼6 molar ADP was added to citrated platelet rich plasma (CPRP) of rabbit after incubation at 37°C for 30 second with 0.01, 0.1, 1, 10 or 100 µg per ml of adrenaline or noradrenaline. These results suggest an important interaction between endothelial surface and platelets in connection with the enhancement of ADP-induced platelet aggregation by adrenaline in vivo.


2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ida Susilowati ◽  
Zahrotunnimah Zahrotunnimah ◽  
Nur Rohim Yunus

AbstractPresidential Election in 2019 has become the most interesting executive election throughout Indonesia's political history. People likely separated, either Jokowi’s or Prabowo’s stronghold. Then it can be assumed, when someone, not a Jokowi’s stronghold he or she certainly within Prabowo’s stronghold. The issue that was brought up in the presidential election campaign, sensitively related to religion, communist ideology, China’s employer, and any other issues. On the other side, politics identity also enlivened the presidential election’s campaign in 2019. Normative Yuridis method used in this research, which was supported by primary and secondary data sourced from either literature and social phenomenon sources as well. The research analysis concluded that political identity has become a part of the political campaign in Indonesia as well as in other countries. The differences came as the inevitability that should not be avoided but should be faced wisely. Finally, it must be distinguished between political identity with the politicization of identity clearly.Keywords. Identity Politics, 2019 Presidential Election


Author(s):  
Philip Isett

This chapter presents the equations and calculations for energy approximation. It establishes the estimates (261) and (262) of the Main Lemma (10.1) for continuous solutions; these estimates state that we are able to accurately prescribe the energy that the correction adds to the solution, as well as bound the difference between the time derivatives of these two quantities. The chapter also introduces the proposition for prescribing energy, followed by the relevant computations. Each integral contributing to the other term can be estimated. Another proposition for estimating control over the rate of energy variation is given. Finally, the coarse scale material derivative is considered.


Metahumaniora ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 378
Author(s):  
Vincentia Tri Handayani

AbstrakFolklor yang menghasilkan tradisi lisan merupakan perwujudan budaya yang lahirdari pengalaman kelompok masyarakat. Salah satu bentuk tradisi lisan adalah ungkapan yangmengandung unsur budaya lokal dalam konstruksinya yang tidak dimiliki budaya lainnya.Ungkapan idiomatis memberikan warna pada bahasa melalui penggambaran mental. Dalambahasa Perancis, ungkapan dapat berupa locution dan expression. Perbedaan motif acuansuatu ungkapan dapat terlihat dari pengaruh budaya masyarakat pengguna bahasa. Sebuahleksem tidak selalu didefinisikan melalui unsur minimal, tidak juga melalui kata-kata,baik kata dasar atau kata kompleks, namun dapat melalui kata-kata beku yang maknanyatetap. Hubungan analogis dari makna tambahan yang ada pada suatu leksem muncul dariidentifikasi semem yang sama. Semem tersebut mengarah pada term yang diasosiasikan danyang diperkaya melalui konteks (dalam ungkapan berhubungan dengan konteks budaya).Kata kunci: folklor, ungkapan, struktur, makna idiomatis, kebudayaanAbstractFolklore which produces the oral tradition is a cultural manifestation born out theexperience of community groups. One form of the oral tradition is a phrase that containsthe elements of local culture in its construction that is not owned the other culture. Theidiomatic phrase gives the color to the language through the mental representation. InFrench, the expression can consist of locution and expression. The difference motivesreference of an expression can be seen from the influence of the cultural community thelanguage users. A lexeme is not always defined through a minimal element, nor throughwords, either basic or complex words, but can be through the frost words whose meaningsare fixed. The analogical connection of the additional meanings is on a lexeme arises fromthe identification of the same meaning. The meaning ‘semem’ leads to the associated termsand which are enriched through the context (in idiom related to the cultural context).Keywords : folklore, idioms, structure, idiom meaning, cultureI PENDAHULUAN


Author(s):  
Michel Meyer

Rhetoric has always been torn between the rhetoric of figures and the rhetoric of conflicts or arguments, as if rhetoric were exclusively one or the other. This is a false dilemma. Both types of rhetoric hinge on the same structure. A common formula is provided in Chapter 3 which unifies rhetoric stricto sensu and rhetoric as argumentation as two distinct but related strategies adopted according to the level of problematicity of the questions at stake, thereby giving unity to the field called “Rhetoric.” Highly problematic questions require arguments to justify their answers; non-divisive ones can be treated rhetorically through their answers as if they were self-evident. Another classic problem is how to understand the difference between logic and rhetoric. The difference between the two is due to the presence of questions explicitly answered in the premises in logic and only suggested (or remaining indeterminate) in rhetoric.


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