Adjusting the Knox test by accounting for spatio-temporal crime risk heterogeneity to analyse near-repeats

2020 ◽  
pp. 147737082090510
Author(s):  
Álvaro Briz-Redón ◽  
Francisco Martínez-Ruiz ◽  
Francisco Montes
Keyword(s):  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Statistical Tool ◽  
Temporal Effects ◽  
Space And Time ◽  
Knox Test ◽  
Temporal Intervals ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Crime Risk ◽  
Near Repeat ◽  
The City

The near-repeat phenomenon usually occurs with any crime. Hence, to implement preventive measures, it is of great interest to figure out at which spatio-temporal scale crimes are more likely to be repeated by offenders. The Knox test is the most used statistical tool for evaluating the presence of the near-repeat phenomenon given a dataset of crimes that are located in space and time. The classic version of this test assumes that crime risk is homogeneous in both space and time, although this assumption rarely holds in reality. Therefore, the main goal of this article is to highlight the necessity of adjusting the standard version of the Knox test, including spatial and temporal effects that allow for the consideration of crime risk heterogeneity. In this regard, a methodology that has already been proposed for addressing this issue is described and adapted. This methodology is then put into practice through a dataset of burglaries recorded in the city of Valencia (Spain) in 2016 and 2017. The results yielded by both versions (standard and adjusted) of the Knox test confirm that the near-repeat phenomenon took place for the burglaries that occurred in Valencia during the period under investigation. However, using the adjusted version of the Knox test leads to a reduction in the number of spatio-temporal intervals that are declared as statistically significant. This fact should be born in mind before making decisions on preventive measures.

scholarly journals Estimating relative risk for dengue disease in Peninsular Malaysia using INLA

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 721-727 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nurul Syafiah Abd Naeeim ◽  
Nuzlinda Abdul Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
Disease Mapping ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Dengue Disease ◽  
Temporal Effects ◽  
Space And Time ◽  
Time Interaction ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Mapping Models

Study in spatio-temporal disease mapping models give a great worth in epidemiology, in describing the pattern of disease incidence across geographical space and time. This paper studies generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) for the analysis of spatial and temporal variability of dengue disease rates. For spatio-temporal study, the models accommodate spatially correlated random effects as well as temporal effects together with the space time interaction. The space time interaction is used to capture any additional effects that are not explained by the main factors of space and time. However, as study including time dimension is quite complex for disease mapping, the temporal effects that only relate to structured and unstructured time pattern are considered in these models as initial screening in studying disease pattern and time trend. The models are fitted within a hierarchical Bayesian framework using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) methodology. For this study, there are three main objectives. First, to choose the best model that represent the disease phenomenon. Second, to estimate the relative risk of disease based on the model selected and lastly, to visualize the risk spatial pattern and temporal trend using graphical representation. The models are applied to monthly dengue fever data in Peninsular Malaysia reported to Ministry of Health Malaysia for year 2015 by district level.

Using augmented reality for navigation in space. Creating Visual Dictionaries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aida Khakimova ◽  
Oleg Zolotarev ◽  
Lyudmila Sharapova ◽  
Daler Mirzoev ◽  
Aleksanra Belaya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Augmented Reality ◽  
Visual Image ◽  
Cultural Codes ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The City

The image of the city is a spatio-temporal continuum in which everything is interconnected, it exists as a single monolith expressing itself in the general atmosphere. The visual image of the city may contain two planes of meanings: culturally ratified and universally valid, expressed by cultural codes, and also significant only to those who are viewing the image. Therefore, the content of the visual image depends on who the subject of perception is, what he pays attention to and in what situation the process of perception of the image occurs.

Hygienic Assessment of Factors of Learning Environment and Organization of the Educational Process at Schools in Smolensk

2020 ◽  
pp. 36-40
Author(s):  
EA Tsukareva ◽  
AV Avchinnikov ◽  
LM Sidorenkova ◽  
SO Avchinnikova ◽  
YP Korykina
Keyword(s):  
Learning Environment ◽  
Indoor Air Quality ◽  
Indoor Air ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Fourth Graders ◽  
Educational Process ◽  
Adverse Health Effects ◽  
Assessment Of Learning ◽  
Learning Conditions ◽  
The City

Relevance: Parameters of learning environment and organization of the educational process can have adverse health effects in schoolchildren. Our objective was to conduct a hygienic assessment of factors of learning environment and organization of the educational process at schools of the city of Smolensk. Materials and methods: We studied indicators of indoor learning environment and the level of organization of the educational process in ten urban comprehensive schools. A hygienic assessment of the microclimate, illuminance, indoor air quality, and organization of the educational process for third and fourth graders (aged 9–11) was given. The assessment of learning conditions and organization of the educational process was carried out according to the method generally accepted in hygienic research (Suharev AG, Kanevskaya LY, 2002). Results: We found that elementary school pupils of Smolensk were exposed to multiple adverse factors such as poor microclimate parameters and insufficient natural illumination in some school rooms, excessive daily study load and irrational distribution of the academic load during the school week. The analysis of the timetable revealed an irrational distribution of the academic load in 37.3% of school days. We established that conditions of education in the surveyed urban schools were moderately dangerous to children’s health (750–806 points). Conclusion: The results enabled us to give a hygienic assessment of the factors of learning environment and organization of the educational process at schools in Smolensk and to outline a set of appropriate preventive measures.

Forest path condition monitoring based on crowd-based trajectory data analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Francisco Arcas-Tunez ◽  
Fernando Terroso-Saenz
Keyword(s):  
Information Acquisition ◽  
Road Network ◽  
Road Networks ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Country Road ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Sport Activities ◽  
Path Condition ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The City

The development of Road Information Acquisition Systems (RIASs) based on the Mobile Crowdsensing (MCS) paradigm has been widely studied for the last years. In that sense, most of the existing MCS-based RIASs focus on urban road networks and assume a car-based scenario. However, there exist a scarcity of approaches that pay attention to rural and country road networks. In that sense, forest paths are used for a wide range of recreational and sport activities by many different people and they can be also affected by different problems or obstacles blocking them. As a result, this work introduces SAMARITAN, a framework for rural-road network monitoring based on MCS. SAMARITAN analyzes the spatio-temporal trajectories from cyclists extracted from the fitness application Strava so as to uncover potential obstacles in a target road network. The framework has been evaluated in a real-world network of forest paths in the city of Cieza (Spain) showing quite promising results.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Changes of Urban Forests and Planning Evolution in a Highly Dynamical Urban Area: The Case Study of Wrocław, Poland

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justyna Jaworek-Jakubska ◽  
Maciej Filipiak ◽  
Adam Michalski ◽  
Anna Napierała-Filipiak
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Urban Forest ◽  
Urban Forests ◽  
Spatial Dimension ◽  
Temporal Changes ◽  
City Centre ◽  
Socialist Economy ◽  
Urban Green Spaces ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The City

Knowledge about urban forests in Poland is still limited, as it is primarily based on aggregate, formal data relating to the general area, ignoring the spatial dimension and informal green areas. This article describes and analyses spatio-temporal changes in the actual urban forest resources in Wrocław in 1944–2017, which covers the first period of the city’s rebuilding after its destruction during World War II and its development during the nationalised, centrally-planned socialist economy, as well as the second period of intensive and only partly controlled growth under conditions of market economy. The study is based on current and historical orthophotomaps, which were confronted with cartographic data, as well as planning documents. We found that between 1944 and 2017, the percentage contribution of informal woodlands increased tenfold (from 0.5 to 4.9% of the present total area of the city). The area occupied by such forests has grown particularly during the most recent years of the city’s intensive development. However, the forests have been increasingly fragmented. During the first period, new forest areas were also created in the immediate vicinity of the city centre, while during the second one, only in its peripheral sections. The post-war plans regarding the urban green spaces (UGS), including the current plan, are very conservative in nature. On the one hand, this means no interference with the oldest, biggest, and most valuable forest complexes, but on the other hand, insufficient consideration of the intensive built-up area expansion on former agriculture areas. Only to a limited extent did the above-mentioned plans take into account the informal woodlands, which provide an opportunity for strengthening the functional connectivity of landscape.

scholarly journals Prediction limits of mobile phone activity modelling

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 160900 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dániel Kondor ◽  
Sebastian Grauwin ◽  
Zsófia Kallus ◽  
István Gódor ◽  
Stanislav Sobolevsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Phone ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Full Spectrum ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Social Events ◽  
Prediction Limits ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
City Structure ◽  
The City

Thanks to their widespread usage, mobile devices have become one of the main sensors of human behaviour and digital traces left behind can be used as a proxy to study urban environments. Exploring the nature of the spatio-temporal patterns of mobile phone activity could thus be a crucial step towards understanding the full spectrum of human activities. Using 10 months of mobile phone records from Greater London resolved in both space and time, we investigate the regularity of human telecommunication activity on urban scales. We evaluate several options for decomposing activity timelines into typical and residual patterns, accounting for the strong periodic and seasonal components. We carry out our analysis on various spatial scales, showing that regularity increases as we look at aggregated activity in larger spatial units with more activity in them. We examine the statistical properties of the residuals and show that it can be explained by noise and specific outliers. Also, we look at sources of deviations from the general trends, which we find to be explainable based on knowledge of the city structure and places of attractions. We show examples how some of the outliers can be related to external factors such as specific social events.

Rainfall estimates from opportunistic sensors in Germany across spatio-temporal scales – Geostatistical interpolation framework

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Micha Eisele ◽  
Maximilian Graf ◽  
Abbas El Hachem ◽  
Jochen Seidel ◽  
Christian Chwala ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Urban Catchment ◽  
Space And Time ◽  
Geostatistical Interpolation ◽  
Primary Network ◽  
Ground Measurement ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
Important Input ◽  
Spatio Temporal

<p>Precipitation - highly variable in space and time - is the most important input for many hydrological models. As these models become more and more detailed in space and time, high-resolution input data are required. Especially for modeling and prediction in fast reacting catchments, such as urban catchment areas, a higher space-time resolution is needed than the current ground measurement networks operated by national weather services usually provide. With the increasing number and availability of opportunistic sensors such as commercial microwave links (CMLs) and personal weather stations (PWS) in recent years, new opportunities for measuring meteorological data are emerging.</p><p>We developed a geostatistical interpolation framework which allows a combination of different opportunistic sensors and their specific features and geometric properties, e.g. point and line information. In this framework, a combined kriging approach is introduced, taking into account not only the point information of a reliable primary network, e.g., from national weather services, but also the higher uncertainty of the PWS- and CML-based precipitation. The path-averaged information of the CMLs is included through a block kriging-type approach.</p><p>The methodology was applied for two 7-months periods in Germany using an hourly temporal and a 1x1 km spatial resolution. By incorporating CMLs and PWS, the Pearson correlation could be increased from 0.56 to 0.73 compared to using only primary network for interpolation. The resulting precipitation maps also provided good agreement compared to gauge adjusted radar products.</p>

Die geschriebene Stadt

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-40
Author(s):  
Teresa Schröder-Stapper
Keyword(s):  
Early Modern ◽  
Middle Ages ◽  
Urban Space ◽  
Essential Role ◽  
Early Modern Period ◽  
Space And Time ◽  
Late Middle Ages ◽  
Modern Period ◽  
The City

The Written City. Inscriptions as Media of Urban Knowledge of Space and Time The article investigates the function of urban inscriptions as media of knowledge about space and time at the transition from the late Middle Ages to the early modern period in the city of Braunschweig. The article starts with the insight that inscriptions in stone or wood on buildings or monuments not only convey knowledge about space and time but at the same time play an essential role in the construction of space and time in the city by the practice of inscribing. The analysis focuses on the steadily deteriorating relationship between the city of Braunschweig and its city lord, the Duke of Braunschweig-Lüneburg, and its material manifestation in building and monument inscriptions. The contribution shows that in the course of the escalating conflict over autonomy, a change in epigraphic habit took placed that aimed at claiming both urban space and its history exclusively on behalf of the city as an expression of its autonomy.

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