Are Sports Betting Markets Prediction Markets?

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle J. Kain ◽  
Trevon D. Logan

In recent years, there has been a substantial rise in interest among academics and policymakers in the economics of gambling. A concomitant trend has been the implementation of major regulatory changes and modifications to the taxation of gambling markets in several nations. Examples include a fundamental change in the U.K. in 2001 from a turnover-based tax on betting operators to a tax based on gross profits, resulting in the effective abolition of taxation levied directly on bettors, followed in 2005 by extensive reforms to the gambling sector resulting from introduction of the Gambling Act. In the U.S., passage of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 had profound implications for the global online gambling sector. There have also been numerous regulatory changes to gambling in Europe, Asia, and Australia. These changes and rising concern regarding revenue generated from this activity have heightened interest in understanding the economics of this sector. Despite growing interest in the economics of gambling, there is no comprehensive source of path-breaking research on this topic. The purpose of this handbook is to fill this gap. Specifically, we divide the handbook into sections on casinos, sports betting, racetrack betting, betting strategy, motivation, behaviour and decision-making in betting markets, prediction markets and political betting, and lotteries and gambling machines.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Abinzano ◽  
Maria Jesus Campion ◽  
Luis Muga ◽  
Armajac Raventós-Pujol

This paper transfers and adapts the Black-Litterman portfolio management model and its subsequent generalizations to the characteristics and specificities of assets quoted on sports betting markets. The results show that these assets are suitable for the application of portfolio management models with the possible inclusion of investors’ opinions. Information based on the variability of market prices and the attention received by NBA teams in Google Trends is successfully used to simulate the opinions expressed by a hypothetical portfolio manager. Furthermore, the assets are suitable for inclusion in portfolios in which managers are seeking returns uncorrelated with other assets.


2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-109
Author(s):  
Steve Easton ◽  
Katherine Uylangco

There is a wide literature on sports betting markets, a literature that examines the informational efficiency of these markets and uses them as laboratories to test for possible impacts of psychological factors on financial markets. The innovation of this study is the examination of price behaviour in an in-play betting market – namely that for one-day cricket. Cricket provides an ideal construct in which to examine in-play market behaviour, as it is a sport where outcomes can be calibrated as good news or bad news on a play-by-play basis. The results from an examination of over 8000 balls corresponding to over 8000 “news events” shows that the in-play betting market is one in which news is impounded rapidly into betting odds. There is also evidence that odds have a level of predictive ability with respect to outcomes from balls before they are bowled. Further, there is evidence of a drift in odds subsequent to the outcome of balls being known.


2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 20-30
Author(s):  
Ludwig Chincarini ◽  
Christina Contreras

The international sports betting markets are becoming more global, but there is still a large concentration of local bettors in gambling markets of individual countries. Home loyalty and other patterns of human behavior might lead to odds for international competitions being different in different countries with less favorable odds being quoted in the home country; the home bias effect. In this paper we explain the logic of this phenomena and examine a small data set to show the existence of the bias in three different sports: tennis, golf, and European football. We also suggest ideas for a more thorough investigation of the home bias phenomenon.


2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodney J Paul ◽  
Andrew P Weinbach ◽  
Brad Humphreys

The “hot hand” hypothesis was first investigated in sports betting markets by Camerer (1989) and Brown and Sauer (1993), who examined if professional basketball teams truly could become “hot”, implying a change in their actual skill level, and if the betting market believes teams become “hot” and over bet the teams on winning streaks.   Both assumed that book makers operated a balanced book.  Recent evidence suggests that book makers do not set point spreads to balance betting on either side of games.  Book makers may price as a forecast or shade point spreads to exploit known biases.  The “hot hand” could exist, but closing point spreads may not reflect this bias due to an unbalanced book.   Using a 6 season sample of NBA betting market data, we show wagering against the “hot hand” does not win more than implied by efficiency.  However, OLS and two-stage least squares regression models show that bettors believe in the hot hand, as teams on streaks attract a significantly higher number of bets.  This illustrates that the public believes in the hot hand, reflecting an actual behavioral bias.  This bias exists even though the closing price serves as an optimal and unbiased forecast of outcomes.


ANCIENT LAND ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 03 (03) ◽  
pp. 15-19
Author(s):  
Hilal Mehti oğlu Abbasov ◽  

Knowing the negative effect of sports manipulation for the sport and society, as well as the problems that is facing the Macolin Convention in its ratification, I decided to do this research in order investigate the phenomenon of match-fixing, controversial issues about the online gambling and potential effect of ratifycation of the convention and its entry into force. I was totally surprised when I found out so many International business law issues are covered in this topic. The sports betting markets are similar to the stock market, where odds movement de- pends on the performance of the teams and players. The insider trading is similar to the match-fixing, where a pre-match information for the result is used in order to achieve a great profit. Memorandums of understanding between betting companies, sports governing bodies and public authorities are used to cover the lack of regulation in this area. In the same time there is a need of acceleration of negotiations for the ratification of the convention due to the spreading of the phenomenon of sports manipulation. Key words: major manipulations, harmful aspects, existing problems, legalizing sports gambling, ethics of sports


2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 64-74
Author(s):  
Leighton Vaughan Williams ◽  
Blake Saville ◽  
Herman Stekler

In this paper, we seek to examine how well prediction markets performed, compared to opinion polls, in forecasting the outcome of the 2010 US Senate elections. Prediction markets are speculative or betting markets created or employed for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions. To do this, we used data from the 2010 US Senate election campaigns, comparing the performance of an established prediction market with opinion polls. Overall we found no significant difference in the forecasting ability of the polls and prediction markets in the Senate races under examination.


2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-52
Author(s):  
Andy Fodor

Traveling across multiple time zones, especially from east-to-west so that hours are “lost”, has documented negative effects on athletic performance. Nichols (2012) finds mixed evidence that sports betting markets fail to account for these effects. We reconsider, for the 2005-2010 NFL regular seasons, the “jet lag” hypothesis with more direct methods. We find that closing lines of NFL contests are set irrationally such that the jet lag effect is not appreciated. More importantly, we are the first to document that betting against potential jet lag teams proves to be markedly profitable. This profitability is statistically significant, which is a standard very rarely encountered throughout the literature. Consistent with our conjectures, we find these results to be even stronger when only afternoon games are kept in the sample and when division games are omitted from the sample.


2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Arkes

There is little research on whether new information is correctly synthesized in prediction markets.  Previous studies have found evidence consistent with, but have not proved, gambler misperceptions on the existence of momentum effects in the NBA.  I use novel momentum measures that, unlike prior studies, incorporate the strengths of the opponent and the wins (or losses).  With these measures, I test whether gamblers correctly synthesize information on momentum in the NBA.  Contrary to previous studies, I find strong evidence for the existence of a momentum effect.  Furthermore, gamblers incorporate momentum into their beliefs on the game outcomes.  Gamblers, however, significantly overstate the importance of momentum. But, there is little evidence that the extent of this gambler misperception is large enough to generate market inefficiencies, or profit opportunity.  Still, the gambler mis-pricing of the information has implications for how well new information is synthesized in other types of prediction markets.


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