scholarly journals A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Patients With Spinal Chordoma: A Population-Based Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 153303382110365
Author(s):  
Zhangheng Huang ◽  
Zhiyi Fan ◽  
Chengliang Zhao ◽  
He Sun

Background: Chordoma is a rare malignant bone tumor, and the survival prediction for patients with chordoma is difficult. The objective of this study was to construct and validate a nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with spinal chordoma. Methods: A total of 316 patients with spinal chordoma were identified from the SEER database between 1998 and 2015. The independent prognostic factors for patients with spinal chordoma were determined by univariate and multivariate Cox analyses. The prognostic nomogram was established for patients with spinal chordoma based on independent prognostic factors. Furthermore, we performed internal and external validations for this nomogram. Results: Primary site, disease stage, histological type, surgery, and age were identified as independent prognostic factors for patients with spinal chordoma. A nomogram for predicting CSS in patients with spinal chordoma was constructed based on the above 5 variables. In the training cohort, the area under the curve for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS were 0.821, 0.856, and 0.920, respectively. The corresponding area under the curve in the validation cohort were 0.728, 0.804, and 0.839, respectively. The calibration curves of the nomogram showed a high degree of agreement between the predicted and the actual results, and the decision curve analysis further demonstrated the satisfactory clinical utility of the nomogram. Conclusions: The prognostic nomogram provides a considerably more accurate prediction of prognosis for patients with spinal chordoma. Clinicians can use it to categorize patients into different risk groups and make personalized treatment methods.

BMC Cancer ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Ye ◽  
Chuan Hu ◽  
Cailin Wang ◽  
Weiyang Yu ◽  
Feijun Liu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Extremity liposarcoma represents 25% of extremity soft tissue sarcoma and has a better prognosis than liposarcoma occurring in other anatomic sites. The purpose of this study was to develop two nomograms for predicting the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with extremity liposarcoma. Methods A total of 2170 patients diagnosed with primary extremity liposarcoma between 2004 and 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to explore the independent prognostic factors and establish two nomograms. The area under the curve (AUC), C-index, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), Kaplan-Meier analysis, and subgroup analyses were used to evaluate the nomograms. Results Six variables were identified as independent prognostic factors for both OS and CSS. In the training cohort, the AUCs of the OS nomogram were 0.842, 0.841, and 0.823 for predicting 3-, 5-, and 8-year OS, respectively, while the AUCs of the CSS nomogram were 0.889, 0.884, and 0.859 for predicting 3-, 5-, and 8-year CSS, respectively. Calibration plots and DCA revealed that the nomogram had a satisfactory ability to predict OS and CSS. The above results were also observed in the validation cohort. In addition, the C-indices of both nomograms were significantly higher than those of all independent prognostic factors in both the training and validation cohorts. Stratification of the patients into high- and low-risk groups highlighted the differences in prognosis between the two groups in the training and validation cohorts. Conclusion Age, sex, tumor size, grade, M stage, and surgery status were confirmed as independent prognostic variables for both OS and CSS in extremity liposarcoma patients. Two nomograms based on the above variables were established to provide more accurate individual survival predictions for extremity liposarcoma patients and to help physicians make appropriate clinical decisions.


2022 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiya Hu ◽  
Ziyi Zuo ◽  
Han Miao ◽  
Zhijie Ning ◽  
Youyuan Deng

Background: T4a gastric cancer (GC) is a subtype of advanced GC (AGC), which urgently needs a comprehensive grade method for better treatment strategy choosing. The purpose of this study was to develop two nomograms for predicting the prognosis of patients with T4a GC.Methods: A total of 1,129 patients diagnosed as T4a GC between 2010 and 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) program database. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to explore the independent predictors and to establish nomogram for overall survival (OS) of the patients, whereas competing risk analyses were performed to find the independent predictors and to establish nomogram for cancer-specific survival (CSS) of the patients. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Kaplan–Meier analysis were performed to evaluate the nomograms.Results: Older age, larger tumor size, black race, signet ring cell carcinoma (SRCC), more lymph node involvement, the absence of surgery, the absence of radiotherapy, and the absence of chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors for both OS and CSS. In the training cohort, the AUCs of the OS nomogram were 0.760, 0.743, and 0.723 for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS, whereas the AUCs of the CSS nomogram were 0.724, 0.703, and 0.713 for 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS, respectively. The calibration curve and DCA indicated that both nomograms can effectively predict OS and CSS, respectively. The abovementioned results were also confirmed in the validation cohort. Stratification of the patients into high- and low-risk groups highlighted the differences in prognosis between the two groups both in training and in validation cohorts.Conclusions: Age, tumor size, race, histologic type, N stage, surgery status, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were confirmed as independent prognostic factors for both OS and CSS in patients with T4a GC. Two nomograms based on the abovementioned variables were constructed to provide more accurate individual survival predictions for them.


BMC Cancer ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuxin Ding ◽  
Runyi Jiang ◽  
Yuhong Chen ◽  
Jing Jing ◽  
Xiaoshuang Yang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Previous studies reported cutaneous melanoma in head and neck (HNM) differed from those in other regions (body melanoma, BM). Individualized tools to predict the survival of patients with HNM or BM remain insufficient. We aimed at comparing the characteristics of HNM and BM, developing and validating nomograms for predicting the survival of patients with HNM or BM. Methods The information of patients with HNM or BM from 2004 to 2015 was obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The HNM group and BM group were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. We used the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox models to identify independent prognostic factors. Nomograms were developed via the rms and dynnom packages, and were measured by the concordance index (C-index), the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration plots. Results Of 70,605 patients acquired, 21% had HNM and 79% had BM. The HNM group contained more older patients, male sex and lentigo maligna melanoma, and more frequently had thicker tumors and metastases than the BM group. The 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) rates were 88.1 ± 0.3% and 74.4 ± 0.4% in the HNM group and 92.5 ± 0.1% and 85.8 ± 0.2% in the BM group, respectively. Eight variables (age, sex, histology, thickness, ulceration, stage, metastases, and surgery) were identified to construct nomograms of CSS and OS for patients with HNM or BM. Additionally, four dynamic nomograms were available on web. The internal and external validation of each nomogram showed high C-index values (0.785–0.896) and AUC values (0.81–0.925), and the calibration plots showed great consistency. Conclusions The characteristics of HNM and BM are heterogeneous. We constructed and validated four nomograms for predicting the 3-, 5- and 10-year CSS and OS probabilities of patients with HNM or BM. These nomograms can serve as practical clinical tools for survival prediction and individual health management.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Li ◽  
Xiaofei Xie ◽  
Yunyun Liu ◽  
Xiaoxin Huang ◽  
Haoliang Lin ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective Evidence on uterine serous cancer (USC) prognosis has been limited and inconclusive. We aim to explore the survival benefits of comprehensive lymphadenectomy in USC patients after surgery and develop a prognostic nomogram to predict survival. Materials and Methods USC patients who had undergone hysterectomy between 2010 and 2015 were identified from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The relationship between the extent of lymphadenectomy and survival, including overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS), was estimated with Kaplan-Meier (K-M) analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were utilized to determine the independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was then developed, calibrated and internally validated. Results A total of 2853 patients were identified. K-M survival analysis revealed that patients with ≥12 pelvic lymph nodes (PLNs) removed had significantly better OS and CSS than those without (both P <0.001). However, patients with ≥6 para-aortic lymph nodes removed was not associated with similar survival benefits than patients without ( P >0.1). Multivariate analyses for OS and CSS revealed that age, T stage, N stage, tumor size, adjuvant therapy and ≥12 PLNs removed were independent prognostic factors (all P<0.05) and were subsequently incorporated into the nomogram. The Harrell’s C-index of the nomogram was significantly higher than that of the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics staging system (OS: 0.739 vs 0.671, P <0.001; CSS: 0.752 vs 0.695, P <0.001). Furthermore, the nomogram was well calibrated with satisfactory consistency. Conclusions Comprehensive pelvic lymphadenectomy should be recommended to USC patients for its survival benefits. And a nomogram has been developed to predict the survivals of USC patients after surgery.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Wang ◽  
Lijie Chen ◽  
Boda Chen ◽  
Chenglong Xie ◽  
Zhenxuan Shao ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Spinal diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) was a rare and malignant tumor, while few studies researched the prognostic factors. The prognostic factors which might have impacts on spinal DLBCL was not clear. Although chemotherapy was recognized as an optimal treatment method, but the curative effect of radiotherapy and surgery were controversial. Methods: The records of patients with spinal DLBCL were selected from the SEER database from 1991 to 2016. The incidence obtained by database was analyzed by Joinpoint Regression Program. The optimal cut-off values of age and year of diagnosis were identified by X-tail program. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis were calculated to identify independent prognostic factors. Prognostic factors were included to predict the survival possibility compared with 5 years of overall (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) via the new nomograms. Results: A total of 917 patients were enrolled. Age, year of diagnosis and chemotherapy were demonstrated as independent prognostic factors for CSS and OS, and primary site was another independent prognostic factor for CSS. However, radiotherapy and surgery might be ineffective in survival. All factors were included to generate the nomograms for CSS and OS. The concordance indices (C-index) for internal validation of OS and CSS prediction were 0.697 (95%CI: 0.662-0.732) and 0.709 (95%CI: 0.692- 0.727) respectively. Conclusions: Age and year of diagnosis are closely associated with the prognosis of spinal DLBCL, and chemotherapy is an ideal treatment modality. The new nomogram is a favourable tool to evaluate the survival possibility, and is benefit for the oncologist to make clinical decisions.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deyue Liu ◽  
Jiayi Wu ◽  
Caijin Lin ◽  
Lisa Andriani ◽  
Shuning Ding ◽  
...  

BackgroundMetastatic breast cancer (MBC) is a highly heterogeneous disease and bone is one of the most common metastatic sites. This retrospective study was conducted to investigate the clinical features, prognostic factors and benefits of surgery of breast cancer patients with initial bone metastases.MethodsFrom 2010 to 2015, 6,860 breast cancer patients diagnosed with initial bone metastasis were analyzed from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and Multivariable analysis were used to identify prognostic factors. A nomogram was performed based on the factors selected from cox regression result. Survival curves were plotted according to different subtypes, metastatic burdens and risk groups differentiated by nomogram.ResultsHormone receptor (HR) positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) positive patients showed the best outcome compared to other subtypes. Patients of younger age (&lt;60 years old), white race, lower grade, lower T stage (&lt;=T2), not combining visceral metastasis tended to have better outcome. About 37% (2,249) patients received surgery of primary tumor. Patients of all subtypes could benefit from surgery. Patients of bone-only metastases (BOM), bone and liver metastases, bone and lung metastases also showed superior survival time if surgery was performed. However, patients of bone and brain metastasis could not benefit from surgery (p = 0.05). The C-index of nomogram was 0.66. Cutoff values of nomogram point were identified as 87 and 157 points, which divided all patients into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups. Patients of all groups showed better overall survival when receiving surgery.ConclusionOur study has provided population-based prognostic analysis in patients with initial bone metastatic breast cancer and constructed a predicting nomogram with good accuracy. The finding of potential benefit of surgery to overall survival will cast some lights on the treatment tactics of this group of patients.


2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (7) ◽  
pp. 930-937 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin M. Solomon ◽  
Kari G. Rabe ◽  
Susan L. Slager ◽  
Jerry D. Brewer ◽  
James R. Cerhan ◽  
...  

Purpose Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is associated with an increased risk of developing second cancers. However, it is unknown whether CLL alters the disease course of these cancers once they occur. Patients and Methods All patients with cancers of the breast (n = 579,164), colorectum (n = 412,366), prostate (n = 631,616), lung (n = 489,053), kidney (n = 95,795), pancreas (n = 82,116), and ovary (n = 61,937) reported to the SEER program from 1990 to 2007 were identified. Overall survival (OS; death resulting from any cause) and cancer-specific survival were examined, comparing patients with and without pre-existing CLL. Cancer-specific survival was evaluated for each tumor type in a site-specific manner (eg, death resulting from breast cancer in a patient with breast cancer). Results Patients with cancers of the breast (hazard ratio [HR], 1.70; P < .001), colorectum (HR, 1.65; P < .001), kidney (HR, 1.54; P < .001), prostate (HR, 1.92; P < .001), or lung (HR, 1.19; P < .001) had inferior OS if they had a pre-existing diagnosis of CLL after adjusting for age, sex, race, and disease stage. These results for OS remained significant for patients with cancers of the breast, colorectum, and prostate after excluding or censoring CLL-related deaths. Cancer-specific survival was also inferior for patients with cancers of the breast (HR, 1.41; P = .005) and colorectum (HR, 1.46; P < .001) who had pre-existing CLL after adjusting for age, sex, race, and disease stage. Conclusion Inferior OS and cancer-specific survival was observed for several common cancers in patients with pre-existing CLL. Additional studies are needed to determine the optimal management of these malignancies in patients with CLL and whether more aggressive screening or alternative approaches to adjuvant therapy are needed.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Haonan Ji ◽  
Huita Wu ◽  
Yu Du ◽  
Li Xiao ◽  
Yiqin Zhang ◽  
...  

Objective. The study was to develop and externally validate a prognostic nomogram to effectively predict the overall survival of patients with stomach cancer. Methods. Demographic and clinical variables of patients with stomach cancer in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2007–2016 were retrospectively collected. Patients were then divided into the Training Group (n = 4,456) for model development and the Testing Group (n = 4,541) for external validation. Univariate and multivariate Cox regressions were used to explore prognostic factors. The concordance index (C-index) and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) value were used to measure the discrimination, and the calibration curve was used to assess the calibration of the nomogram. Results. Prognostic factors including age, race, marital status, TNM stage, surgery, chemotherapy, grade, and the number of regional nodes positive were used to construct a nomogram. The C-index was 0.790 and the KS value was 0.45 for the Training Group, and the C-index was 0.789 for the Testing Group, all suggesting the good performance of the nomogram. Conclusion. We have developed an effective nomogram with ten easily acquired prognostic factors. The nomogram could accurately predict the overall survival of patients with stomach cancer and performed well on external validation, which would help improve the individualized survival prediction and decision-making, thereby improving the outcome and survival of stomach cancer.


Blood ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 124 (21) ◽  
pp. 4427-4427
Author(s):  
Tove Wästerlid ◽  
Erzsebet Szekely ◽  
Linda Werner Hartman ◽  
Mats Jerkeman

Abstract Background: The current standard treatment for patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is Rituximab - Cyclophosphamide, Doxorubicin, Vincristine, Prednisone (R-CHOP). Two large randomised trials have been unable to establish a significant difference in outcome between patients receiving R-CHOP at 21 versus 14 day intervals regardless of age (Cunningham et al Lancet 2013, Delarue et al Lancet 2013). Another means of intensifying R-CHOP is by the addition of etoposide (R-CHOEP-14). As of yet, no randomised study in the rituximab era has been performed specifically evaluating the addition of etoposide. The aim of this study was to compare the chemotherapy regimens used to treat DLBCL in Sweden (R-CHOP-21, R-CHOP-14, R-CHOEP-14) among patients aged ≤70 in terms of overall survival, adjusted for clinical prognostic factors. Methods: The study population was identified through the Swedish Lymphoma Registry (SLR) 2007-2012. Data was analysed using STATA and SPSS. Age was modelled as splines in the multivariable analysis. Results: A total of 1745 patients aged ≤70 were identified in the SLR during the time-frame of this study. Median age was 61 years (range 18-70). Of these, 1331 had received R-CHOP-21 (n=302), R-CHOP-14 (n=872) or R-CHOEP-14 (n=157) and were included in the study. Median follow-up time for surviving patients was 49 months. Three-year overall survival rates were 86.7%, 79.6% and 87.5% for the patients who received R-CHOP-21, R-CHOP-14 and R-CHOEP-14 respectively. There was a significant disparity in the distribution of prognostic factors among patients receiving the various chemotherapy regimens with a lower proportion of patients with elevated serum lactate dehydrogenase (S-LDH), performance status >1, stage III-IV and presence of bulky disease (>10 cm) in the R-CHOP-21 group compared to the other regimens. As expected, the most intensive regimen, R-CHOEP-14 was more frequently given to younger patients (median age 49) with high-risk prognostic features. When adjusting for significant prognostic factors (age, performance status, S-LDH, bulky disease, stage and gender) in a multivariable Cox regression model, R-CHOEP-14 was found to be significantly superior both to R-CHOP-21 (Hazard Ratio (HR): 0.53, Confidence Interval (CI):0.3-0.9, p=0.026) and R-CHOP-14 (HR:0.63, CI:0.4-1.0, p=0.048). No significant difference between R-CHOP-14 and R-CHOP-21 was found (HR: 0.84, CI: 0.6-1.2, p=0.3), consistent with findings from randomised trials performed. Conclusion: In this population based series of DLBCL, the more intensive regimen R-CHOEP-14 was associated with superior overall survival in patients aged up to 70 years, indicating that this may be considered among the standard treatment options for this patient population. R-CHOEP-14 should preferably be compared to R-CHOP-21 in a randomised setting in order to further elucidate which patient groups that benefit the most from treatment intensification. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Wang ◽  
Lijie Chen ◽  
Boda Chen ◽  
Chenglong Xie ◽  
Zhenxuan Shao ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Spinal diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is a rare and malignant tumor, while few studies researched the prognostic factors. The prognostic factors which impacts on spinal DLBCL are not clear. Although chemotherapy was recognized as an optimal treatment method, but the curative effect of radiotherapy and surgery were controversial.Methods: The records of patients with spinal DLBCL were selected from the SEER database from 1991 to 2016. The incidence obtained by database was analyzed by Joinpoint Regression Program. The optimal cut-off values of age and year of diagnosis were identified by X-tail program. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis were calculated to identify independent prognostic factors. Prognostic factors were included to predict the survival possibility compared with 5 years of overall (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) via the new nomograms. Results: A total of 917 patients were enrolled. Age, year of diagnosis and chemotherapy were demonstrated as independent prognostic factors for CSS and OS, and primary site was another independent prognostic factor for CSS. However, radiotherapy and surgery might be ineffective in survival. All factors were included to generate the nomograms for CSS and OS. The concordance indices (C-index) for internal validation of OS and CSS prediction were 0.697 (95%CI: 0.662-0.732) and 0.709 (95%CI: 0.692- 0.727) respectively.Conclusions: Age and year of diagnosis are closely associated with the prognosis of spinal DLBCL, and chemotherapy is an ideal treatment modality. The new nomogram is a favourable tool to evaluate the survival possibility, and is benefit for the oncologist to make clinical decisions.


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