scholarly journals Comparing the characteristics and predicting the survival of patients with head and neck melanoma versus body melanoma: a population-based study

BMC Cancer ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuxin Ding ◽  
Runyi Jiang ◽  
Yuhong Chen ◽  
Jing Jing ◽  
Xiaoshuang Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Head And Neck ◽  
Health Management ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Survival Prediction ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Cox Models ◽  
Lentigo Maligna Melanoma ◽  
Clinical Tools

Abstract Background Previous studies reported cutaneous melanoma in head and neck (HNM) differed from those in other regions (body melanoma, BM). Individualized tools to predict the survival of patients with HNM or BM remain insufficient. We aimed at comparing the characteristics of HNM and BM, developing and validating nomograms for predicting the survival of patients with HNM or BM. Methods The information of patients with HNM or BM from 2004 to 2015 was obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The HNM group and BM group were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. We used the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox models to identify independent prognostic factors. Nomograms were developed via the rms and dynnom packages, and were measured by the concordance index (C-index), the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration plots. Results Of 70,605 patients acquired, 21% had HNM and 79% had BM. The HNM group contained more older patients, male sex and lentigo maligna melanoma, and more frequently had thicker tumors and metastases than the BM group. The 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) rates were 88.1 ± 0.3% and 74.4 ± 0.4% in the HNM group and 92.5 ± 0.1% and 85.8 ± 0.2% in the BM group, respectively. Eight variables (age, sex, histology, thickness, ulceration, stage, metastases, and surgery) were identified to construct nomograms of CSS and OS for patients with HNM or BM. Additionally, four dynamic nomograms were available on web. The internal and external validation of each nomogram showed high C-index values (0.785–0.896) and AUC values (0.81–0.925), and the calibration plots showed great consistency. Conclusions The characteristics of HNM and BM are heterogeneous. We constructed and validated four nomograms for predicting the 3-, 5- and 10-year CSS and OS probabilities of patients with HNM or BM. These nomograms can serve as practical clinical tools for survival prediction and individual health management.

scholarly journals A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Patients With Spinal Chordoma: A Population-Based Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 153303382110365
Author(s):  
Zhangheng Huang ◽  
Zhiyi Fan ◽  
Chengliang Zhao ◽  
He Sun
Keyword(s):  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Disease Stage ◽  
Survival Prediction ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Spinal Chordoma ◽  
Prediction Of Prognosis ◽  
High Degree

Background: Chordoma is a rare malignant bone tumor, and the survival prediction for patients with chordoma is difficult. The objective of this study was to construct and validate a nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with spinal chordoma. Methods: A total of 316 patients with spinal chordoma were identified from the SEER database between 1998 and 2015. The independent prognostic factors for patients with spinal chordoma were determined by univariate and multivariate Cox analyses. The prognostic nomogram was established for patients with spinal chordoma based on independent prognostic factors. Furthermore, we performed internal and external validations for this nomogram. Results: Primary site, disease stage, histological type, surgery, and age were identified as independent prognostic factors for patients with spinal chordoma. A nomogram for predicting CSS in patients with spinal chordoma was constructed based on the above 5 variables. In the training cohort, the area under the curve for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS were 0.821, 0.856, and 0.920, respectively. The corresponding area under the curve in the validation cohort were 0.728, 0.804, and 0.839, respectively. The calibration curves of the nomogram showed a high degree of agreement between the predicted and the actual results, and the decision curve analysis further demonstrated the satisfactory clinical utility of the nomogram. Conclusions: The prognostic nomogram provides a considerably more accurate prediction of prognosis for patients with spinal chordoma. Clinicians can use it to categorize patients into different risk groups and make personalized treatment methods.

scholarly journals Nomograms Forecasting Long-Term Overall and Cancer Specific Survival of Patients With Head and Neck Neuroendocrine Carcinoma

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ouying Yan ◽  
Wenji Xie ◽  
Haibo Teng ◽  
Shengnan Fu ◽  
Yanzhu Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Head And Neck ◽  
Neuroendocrine Carcinoma ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Receiver Operating Curve ◽  
Survival Prediction ◽  
Validation Group ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
Cancer Hospital

BackgroundThe purpose of this retrospective analysis was to build and validate nomograms to predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) of head and neck neuroendocrine carcinoma (HNNEC) patients.MethodsA total of 493 HNNEC patients were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2004 and 2015, and 74 HNNEC patients were collected from the Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Xiangya School of Medicine, Central South University/Hunan Cancer Hospital (HCH) between 2008 and 2020. Patients from SEER were randomly assigned into training (N=345) and internal validation (N=148) groups, and the independent data group (N=74) from HCH was used for external validation. Independent prognostic factors were collected using an input method in a Cox regression model, and they were then included in nomograms to predict 3‐, 5‐, and 10‐year CSS and OS rates of HNNEC patients. Finally, we evaluated the internal and external validity of the nomograms using the consistency index, while assessing their prediction accuracy using calibration curves. A receiver operating curve (ROC) was also used to measure the performance of the survival models.ResultsThe 3-, 5-, and 10-year nomograms of this analysis demonstrated that M classification had the largest influence on CSS and OS of HNNEC, followed by the AJCC stage, N stage, age at diagnosis, sex/gender, radiation therapy, and marital status. The training validation C-indexes for the CSS and OS models were 0.739 and 0.713, respectively. Those for the internal validation group were 0.726 and 0.703, respectively, and for the external validation group were 0.765 and 0.709, respectively. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 3-, 5-, and 10-year CSS and OS models were 0.81, 0.82, 0.82, and 0.78, 0.81, and 0.82, respectively. The C-indexes were all higher than 0.7, indicating the high accuracy ability of our model’s survival prediction.ConclusionsIn this study, prognosis nomograms in HNNEC patients were constructed to predict CSS and OS for the first time. Clinicians can identify patients’ survival risk better and help patients understand their survival prognosis for the next 3, 5, and 10 years more clearly by using these nomograms.

scholarly journals Nomogram for predicting the overall survival and cancer-specific survival of patients with extremity liposarcoma: a population-based study

BMC Cancer ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Ye ◽  
Chuan Hu ◽  
Cailin Wang ◽  
Weiyang Yu ◽  
Feijun Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Extremity Soft Tissue Sarcoma ◽  
Individual Survival ◽  
Size Grade

Abstract Background Extremity liposarcoma represents 25% of extremity soft tissue sarcoma and has a better prognosis than liposarcoma occurring in other anatomic sites. The purpose of this study was to develop two nomograms for predicting the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with extremity liposarcoma. Methods A total of 2170 patients diagnosed with primary extremity liposarcoma between 2004 and 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to explore the independent prognostic factors and establish two nomograms. The area under the curve (AUC), C-index, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), Kaplan-Meier analysis, and subgroup analyses were used to evaluate the nomograms. Results Six variables were identified as independent prognostic factors for both OS and CSS. In the training cohort, the AUCs of the OS nomogram were 0.842, 0.841, and 0.823 for predicting 3-, 5-, and 8-year OS, respectively, while the AUCs of the CSS nomogram were 0.889, 0.884, and 0.859 for predicting 3-, 5-, and 8-year CSS, respectively. Calibration plots and DCA revealed that the nomogram had a satisfactory ability to predict OS and CSS. The above results were also observed in the validation cohort. In addition, the C-indices of both nomograms were significantly higher than those of all independent prognostic factors in both the training and validation cohorts. Stratification of the patients into high- and low-risk groups highlighted the differences in prognosis between the two groups in the training and validation cohorts. Conclusion Age, sex, tumor size, grade, M stage, and surgery status were confirmed as independent prognostic variables for both OS and CSS in extremity liposarcoma patients. Two nomograms based on the above variables were established to provide more accurate individual survival predictions for extremity liposarcoma patients and to help physicians make appropriate clinical decisions.

scholarly journals Ferroptosis-Related Long Non-Coding RNA Signature Contributes to the Prediction of Prognosis Outcomes in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinomas

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenru Jiang ◽  
Yingtao Song ◽  
Zhaowei Zhong ◽  
Jili Gao ◽  
Xiaofei Meng
Keyword(s):  
Cell Death ◽  
Programmed Cell Death ◽  
Head And Neck ◽  
Squamous Cell ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Survival Prediction ◽  
Non Coding Rna ◽  
Long Non Coding Rna

Background: Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is a malignant tumor, which makes the prognosis prediction challenging. Ferroptosis is an iron-dependent form of non-apoptotic regulated cell death, which could affect cancer development. However, the prognostic value of ferroptosis-related long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) in HNSCC is still limited.Methods: In the current study, we employed the DESeq2 method to characterize the differentially expressed ferroptosis-related genes (FEGs) between cancer and normal samples. Next, the FEG-related lncRNAs (FElncRNAs) were identified using Spearman’s correlation analysis and multiple permutation hypotheses. Subsequently, LASSO and stepwise multivariate Cox regression analyses were undertaken to recognize the prognosis-related FElncRNA signature (PFLS) and risk scores.Results: Herein, we first identified 60 dysregulated FEGs and their co-expressed FElncRNAs in HNSCC. Then, we recognized a set of six FElncRNAs PFLS (SLCO4A1-AS1, C1RL-AS1, PCED1B-AS1, HOXB-AS3, MIR9-3HG, and SFTA1P) for predicting patients’ prognostic risks and survival outcomes. We also assessed the efficiency of PFLS in the test set and an external validation cohort. Further parsing of the tumor immune microenvironment showed the PFLS was closely associated with immune cell infiltration abundances. Notably, the low-risk group of the PFLS showed a higher MHC score and cytolytic activity (CYT) score than the high-risk group, implying the low-risk group may have greater tumor surveillance and killing ability. In addition, we observed that the expression levels of two immune checkpoints (ICPs), i.e., programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) and programmed cell death 1 ligand 1 (PD-L1), showed significant associations with patients’ risk score, prompting the role of the PFLS in ICP blockade therapy. Finally, we also constructed a drug–PFLS network to reinforce the clinical utilities of the PFLS.Conclusion: In summary, our study indicated that FElncRNAs played an important role in HNSCC survival prediction. Identification of PFLS will contribute to the development of novel anticancer therapeutic strategies.

scholarly journals Development and External Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Stomach Cancer: A Population-Based Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Haonan Ji ◽  
Huita Wu ◽  
Yu Du ◽  
Li Xiao ◽  
Yiqin Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Overall Survival ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Stomach Cancer ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Training Group ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Survival Prediction ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Testing Group

Objective. The study was to develop and externally validate a prognostic nomogram to effectively predict the overall survival of patients with stomach cancer. Methods. Demographic and clinical variables of patients with stomach cancer in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2007–2016 were retrospectively collected. Patients were then divided into the Training Group (n = 4,456) for model development and the Testing Group (n = 4,541) for external validation. Univariate and multivariate Cox regressions were used to explore prognostic factors. The concordance index (C-index) and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) value were used to measure the discrimination, and the calibration curve was used to assess the calibration of the nomogram. Results. Prognostic factors including age, race, marital status, TNM stage, surgery, chemotherapy, grade, and the number of regional nodes positive were used to construct a nomogram. The C-index was 0.790 and the KS value was 0.45 for the Training Group, and the C-index was 0.789 for the Testing Group, all suggesting the good performance of the nomogram. Conclusion. We have developed an effective nomogram with ten easily acquired prognostic factors. The nomogram could accurately predict the overall survival of patients with stomach cancer and performed well on external validation, which would help improve the individualized survival prediction and decision-making, thereby improving the outcome and survival of stomach cancer.

scholarly journals Comparing the Characteristics and Predicting the Survival of Head and Neck Melanoma versus Body Melanoma: A Population-based Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuxin Ding ◽  
Runyi Jiang ◽  
Yuhong Chen ◽  
Jing Jing ◽  
Xiaoshuang Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Head And Neck ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Models ◽  
Great Consistency ◽  
Lentigo Maligna Melanoma ◽  
Head And Neck Melanoma

Abstract Background Previous studies have reported poorer survival in head and neck melanoma (HNM) than in body melanoma (BM). Individualized tools to predict the prognosis for patients with HNM or BM remain insufficient. Objectives To compare the characteristics of HNM and BM, and to establish and validate the nomograms for predicting the 3-, 5- and 10-year survival of patients with HNM or BM. Methods We studied patients with HNM or BM from 2004 to 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The HNM group and BM group were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. We performed the Kaplan-Meier method for survival analysis, and used multivariate Cox proportional hazards models to identify independent prognostic factors. Nomograms for HNM patients or BM patients were developed via the rms package, and were measured by the concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and calibration plots. Results Of 70605 patients acquired, 21% (n = 15071) had HNM and 79% (n = 55534) had BM. The HNM group contained more older patients, male patients, and lentigo maligna melanoma, and more frequently had thicker tumors and metastases than the BM group. The 5-year CSS and OS rates were 88.1 ± 0.3% and 74.4 ± 0.4% in the HNM group and 92.5 ± 0.1% and 85.8 ± 0.2% in the BM group, respectively. Eight independent prognostic factors (age, sex, histology, thickness, ulceration, stage, metastases, and surgery) were identified to construct nomograms for HNM patients or BM patients. The performance of the nomograms were excellent: the C-index of the CSS prediction for HNM patients and BM patients in the training cohort were 0.839 and 0.895, respectively; in the validation cohort, they were 0.848 and 0.888, respectively; the AUCs for the 3-, 5- and 10-year CSS rates of HNM were 0.871, 0.865 and 0.854 (training), and 0.881, 0.879 and 0.861 (validation), respectively; of BM, the AUCs were 0.924, 0.918 and 0.901 (training) and 0.916, 0.908 and 0.893 (validation), respectively; and the calibration plots showed great consistency. Conclusions The characteristics of HNM and BM are heterogeneous, and we constructed and validated specific nomograms as practical prognostic tools for patients with HNM or BM.

Obesity and its impact on outcomes in stage III colon cancer (CC) patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy (AC).

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 627-627
Author(s):  
Qirui Ding ◽  
Geoff McKinnon ◽  
Yuan Xu ◽  
Winson Y. Cheung
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Normal Weight ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Stage Iii ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Obese Patients ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Cox Models ◽  
The Impact

627 Background: Obesity may complicate CC surgery, which can result in potential AC delays. We aimed to determine the effect of body mass index (BMI) and body surface area (BSA) on CC outcomes, accounting for variations in the time interval between surgery and AC. Methods: We analyzed a population-based cohort of patients from Alberta, Canada who were diagnosed with stage III CC from 2011 to 2016 and underwent AC. Patients were grouped based on their baseline BSA (underweight, < 20 kg/m2; normal, 20-24; overweight, 25-29; obese ≥ 30) and BMI (< 2 m2 vs ≥ 2 m2). Logistic regression models were constructed to examine the effect of BMI/BSA on delays between surgery and AC. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate overall (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) and Cox proportional hazards models were developed to evaluate the impact of BMI/BSA on these outcomes, adjusting for confounders. Results: We examined 915 patients: median age was 64 years, 510 (56%) were men and 155 (17%) had a Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) ≥ 2. In this cohort, 126 (14%), 623 (68%) and 166 (18%) were stage IIIA, IIIB and IIIC, respectively. In total, 132 (14%) were underweight, 452 (49%) normal weight, 233 (26%) overweight and 98 (11%) obese. Based on the Mosteller formula, 527 (58%) patients had normal BSA and 368 (42%) had high BSA. Obese patients were more likely to be men (67% vs 56%, p < 0.001) and had worse CCI (28% vs 17% with CCI ≥ 2, p = 0.03) when compared to non-obese patients. Neither BMI (p = 0.14) nor BSA (p = 0.44) correlated with AC delays after surgery. Similar OS and CSS were observed regardless of BMI and BSA (p = 0.76 and 0.80 for OS and p = 0.60 and 0.89 for CSS, respectively). In multivariate Cox models, only worse nodal stage was associated with inferior OS and CSS (HR 4.74, 95%CI 1.96-11.47, p < 0.001 for OS; HR 4.92, 95%CI 1.42-17.00, p = 0.006 for CSS, comparing IIIC vs IIIA), but BMI and BSA were not (see Table). Conclusions: Obesity as measured by BMI and BSA did not correlate with AC delays or worse outcomes in stage III CC patients. [Table: see text]

scholarly journals Comprehensive lymphadenectomy and survival prediction in uterine serous cancer patients after surgery: a population-based analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Li ◽  
Xiaofei Xie ◽  
Yunyun Liu ◽  
Xiaoxin Huang ◽  
Haoliang Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Lymph Nodes ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Staging System ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Pelvic Lymphadenectomy ◽  
Survival Prediction ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Gynecology And Obstetrics ◽  
Objective Evidence

Abstract Objective Evidence on uterine serous cancer (USC) prognosis has been limited and inconclusive. We aim to explore the survival benefits of comprehensive lymphadenectomy in USC patients after surgery and develop a prognostic nomogram to predict survival. Materials and Methods USC patients who had undergone hysterectomy between 2010 and 2015 were identified from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The relationship between the extent of lymphadenectomy and survival, including overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS), was estimated with Kaplan-Meier (K-M) analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were utilized to determine the independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was then developed, calibrated and internally validated. Results A total of 2853 patients were identified. K-M survival analysis revealed that patients with ≥12 pelvic lymph nodes (PLNs) removed had significantly better OS and CSS than those without (both P <0.001). However, patients with ≥6 para-aortic lymph nodes removed was not associated with similar survival benefits than patients without ( P >0.1). Multivariate analyses for OS and CSS revealed that age, T stage, N stage, tumor size, adjuvant therapy and ≥12 PLNs removed were independent prognostic factors (all P<0.05) and were subsequently incorporated into the nomogram. The Harrell’s C-index of the nomogram was significantly higher than that of the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics staging system (OS: 0.739 vs 0.671, P <0.001; CSS: 0.752 vs 0.695, P <0.001). Furthermore, the nomogram was well calibrated with satisfactory consistency. Conclusions Comprehensive pelvic lymphadenectomy should be recommended to USC patients for its survival benefits. And a nomogram has been developed to predict the survivals of USC patients after surgery.

Small cell carcinoma of the head and neck: Incidence and survival trends based on the Surveillance and Epidemiologic and End Results (SEER) analysis.

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e17508-e17508
Author(s):  
Marta Bean ◽  
Michael Goodman ◽  
Conor Ernst Steuer ◽  
Mihir Patel ◽  
Mark William McDonald ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Propensity Score ◽  
Head And Neck ◽  
Salivary Glands ◽  
Tumor Grade ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Small Cell ◽  
Advanced Stage ◽  
Elderly Male ◽  
Cox Models ◽  
End Results

e17508 Background: Small cell carcinomas of the head and neck (SmCCHN) are rare neoplasms with an unfavorable prognosis. Population based data describing survival and prognostic factors for this malignancy are limited. Methods: Data was obtained from the US National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database for the period 1973-2013. Patient and tumor related characteristics for SmCCHN were compared with squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) of the same anatomic sites. Survival for the two groups was compared by constructing Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models with and without propensity score matching. Cox models results were expressed as hazard ratios (HR) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: The dataset included 609 SmCCHN and 227943 cases of SCCHN. SCCHN patients with SmCCHN included significantly greater proportions of females and whites. SmCCHN was more likely to originate in the salivary glands and present with more advanced stage and grade. The overall 5 year and 10 year survival estimates were 27% and 18%, respectively. Corresponding values for SCCHN were 46% and 31%. The multivariable analyses adjusting for age, sex, race, marital status, year of diagnosis, stage, grade and receipt of radiation, the HR comparing SmCCHN to SCCHN was 1.53 (95% CI: 1.39-1.68). Elderly, male, black and not married persons had worse prognosis compared to their respective reference groups. Other factors independently associated with lower survival included more advanced stage and tumor grade, and earlier decades of diagnosis. In the propensity score matched analyses the corresponding HR was 1.27 (95% CI: 1.15-1.40). Conclusions: Compared to SCCHN, SmCCHN in addition to carrying a worse survival, is more likely to originate in the salivary glands, present with more advanced stage, and affect females and whites.

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