scholarly journals Measures of follow-up in time-to-event studies: Why provide them and what should they be?

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca A Betensky
Keyword(s):  
2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 211-211
Author(s):  
Allison Kuipers ◽  
Robert Boudreau ◽  
Mary Feitosa ◽  
Angeline Galvin ◽  
Bharat Thygarajan ◽  
...  

Abstract Natriuretic peptides are produced within the heart and released in response to increased chamber wall tension and heart failure (HF). N-Terminal prohormone Brain Natriuretic Peptide (NT-proBNP) is a specific natriuretic peptide commonly assayed in persons at risk for HF. In these individuals, NT-proBNP is associated with future disease prognosis and mortality. However, its association with mortality among healthy older adults remains unknown. Therefore, we determined the association of NT-proBNP with all-cause mortality over a median follow-up of 10 years in 3253 individuals free from HF at baseline in the Long Life Family Study, a study of families recruited for exceptional longevity. We performed cox proportional hazards analysis (coxme in R) for time-to event (mortality), adjusted for field center, familial relatedness, age, sex, education, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, BMI, diabetes, hypertension, and cancer. In addition, we performed secondary analyses among individuals (N=2457) within the normal NT-proBNP limits at baseline (<125pg/ml aged <75 years; <450pg/ml aged ≥75 years). Overall, individuals were aged 32-110 years (median 67 years; 44% male), had mean NT-proBNP of 318.5 pg/ml (median 91.0 pg/ml) and 1066 individuals (33%) died over the follow-up period. After adjustment, each 1 SD greater baseline NT-proBNP was associated with a 1.30-times increased hazard of mortality (95% CI: 1.24-1.36; P<0.0001). Results were similar in individuals with normal baseline NT-proBNP (HR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.11-1.32; P<0.0001). These results suggest that NT-proBNP is a strong and specific biomarker for mortality in older adults independent of current health status, even in those with clinically-defined normal NT-proBNP.


PEDIATRICS ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 105 (6) ◽  
pp. 1260-1270
Author(s):  
Edward Helton ◽  
Robert Darragh ◽  
Paul Francis ◽  
F. Jay Fricker ◽  
Kenneth Jue ◽  
...  

Objectives. A multicenter retrospective study was conducted to investigate the possible metabolic causes of pediatric cardiomyopathy and evaluate the outcome of patients treated with l-carnitine. Methods. Seventy-six patients diagnosed with cardiomyopathy were treated with l-carnitine in addition to conventional cardiac treatment, and 145 patients were treated with conventional treatment only. There were 101 males and 120 females between 1 day and 18 years old. Cardiomyopathy diagnoses included dilated (148 patients), hypertrophic (42 patients), restrictive (16 patients), mixed diagnosis (11 patients), and 4 with an unknown type. Of 76 l-carnitine-treated patients, 29 (38%) had evidence to suggest a disorder of metabolism, and of 145 control patients, 15 (10%) were suspected to have a disorder of metabolism. These metabolic disorders were thought to be the cause for the cardiomyopathy of the patients. The duration of l-carnitine treatment ranged from 2 weeks to >1 year. Information was collected on length of survival (time-to-event), clinical outcome, echocardiogram parameters, and clinical assessments. Data were collected at intervals from baseline to study endpoint, death, transplant, or last known follow-up visit. Results. l-Carnitine-treated patients were younger than control patients and had poorer clinical functioning at baseline, yet they demonstrated lower mortality and a level of clinical functioning and clinical severity comparable to control patients on conventional therapy by the end of the study. An analysis of the interaction between clinical outcome and concomitant medications unexpectedly revealed that the population of patients treated with angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors (40% of patients) had significantly poorer survival (although their greater likelihood for poor survival may possibly have made them more likely to receive ACE inhibitors). Conclusion. Results suggest that l-carnitine provides clinical benefit in treating pediatric cardiomyopathy. There is a need for further exploration of potential explanatory factors for the higher mortality observed in the population of patients treated with ACE inhibitors.


BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. e024073 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Tellez-Plaza ◽  
Laisa Briongos-Figuero ◽  
Gernot Pichler ◽  
Alejandro Dominguez-Lucas ◽  
Fernando Simal-Blanco ◽  
...  

PurposeThe Hortega Study is a prospective study, which investigates novel determinants of selected chronic conditions with an emphasis on cardiovascular health in a representative sample of a general population from Spain.ParticipantsIn 1997, a mailed survey was sent to a random selection of public health system beneficiaries assigned to the University Hospital Rio Hortega’s catchment area in Valladolid (Spain) (n=11 423, phase I), followed by a pilot examination in 1999–2000 of 495 phase I participants (phase II). In 2001–2003, the examination of 1502 individuals constituted the Hortega Study baseline examination visit (phase III, mean age 48.7 years, 49% men, 17% with obesity, 27% current smokers). Follow-up of phase III participants (also termed Hortega Follow-up Study) was obtained as of 30 November 2015 through review of health records (9.5% of participants without follow-up information).Findings to dateThe Hortega Study integrates baseline information of traditional and non-traditional factors (metabolomic including lipidomic and oxidative stress metabolites, genetic variants and environmental factors, such as metals), with 14 years of follow-up for the assessment of mortality and incidence of chronic diseases. Preliminary analysis of time to event data shows that well-known cardiovascular risk factors are associated with cardiovascular incidence rates, which add robustness to our cohort.Future plansIn 2020, we will review updated health and mortality records of this ongoing cohort for a 5-year follow-up extension. We will also re-examine elder survivors to evaluate specific aspects of ageing and conduct geolocation to study additional environmental exposures. Stored biological specimens are available for analysis of new biomarkers. The Hortega Study will, thus, enable the identification of novel factors based on time to event data, potentially contributing to the prevention and control of chronic diseases in ageing populations.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
L E Juarez-Orozco ◽  
J W Benjamins ◽  
T Maaniitty ◽  
A Saraste ◽  
P Van Der Harst ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Deep Learning (DL) is revolutionizing cardiovascular medicine through complex data-pattern recognition. In spite of its success in the diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD), DL implementation for prognostic evaluation of cardiovascular events is still limited. Traditional survival models (e.g.Cox) notably incorporate the effect of time-to-event but are unable to exploit complex non-liner dependencies between large numbers of predictors. On the other hand, DL hasn't systematically incorporated time-to-event for prognostic evaluations. Long-term registries of hybrid PET/CT imaging represent a suitable substrate for DL-based survival analysis due the large amount of time-dependent structured variables that they convey. Therefore, we sought to evaluate the feasibility and performance of DL Survival Analysis in predicting the occurrence of myocardial infarction (MI) and death in a long-term registry of cardiac hybrid PET/CT. Methods Data from our PET/CT registry of symptomatic patients with intermediate CAD risk who underwent sequential CT angiography and 15O-water PET for suspected ischemia, was analyzed. The sample has been followed for a 6-year average for MI or death. Ten clinical variables were extracted from electronic records including cardiovascular risk factors, dyspnea and early revascularization. CT angiography images were evaluated segmentally for: presence of plaque, % of luminal stenosis and calcification (58 variables). Absolute stress PET myocardial perfusion data was evaluated globally and regionally across vascular territories (4 variables). Cox-Nnet (a deep survival neural network) was implemented in a 5-fold cross-validated 80:20 split for training and testing. Resulting DL-hazard ratios were operationalized and compared to the observed events developed during follow-up. The performance of Cox-Nnet evaluating structured CT, PET/CT, and PET/CT+clinical variables was compared to expert interpretation (operationalized as: normal coronaries, non-obstructive CAD, obstructive CAD) and to Calcium Score (CaSc), through the concordance (c)-index. Results There were 426 men and 525 women with a mean age of 61±9 years-old. Twenty-four MI and 49 deaths occurred during follow-up (1 month–9.6 years), while 11.5% patients underwent early revascularization. Cox-Nnet evaluation of PET/CT data (c-index=0.75) outperformed categorical expert interpretation (c-index=0.54) and CaSc (c-index=0.65), while hybrid PET/CT and PET/CT+clinical (c-index=0.75) variables demonstrated incremental performance overall independent from early revascularization. Conclusion Deep Learning Survival Analysis is feasible in the evaluation of cardiovascular prognostic data. It might enhance the value of cardiac hybrid PET/CT imaging data for predicting the long-term development of myocardial infarction and death. Further research into the implementation of Deep Learning for prognostic analyses in CAD is warranted.


2016 ◽  
Vol 115 (12) ◽  
pp. 2114-2121 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. S. Martinez ◽  
A. Campa ◽  
H. Bussmann ◽  
S. Moyo ◽  
J. Makhema ◽  
...  

AbstractAn obesity paradox has been proposed in many conditions including HIV. Studies conducted to investigate obesity and its effect on HIV disease progression have been inconclusive and are lacking for African settings. This study investigated the relationship between overweight/obesity (BMI≥25 kg/m2) and HIV disease progression in HIV+ asymptomatic adults not on antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Botswana over 18 months. A cohort study in asymptomatic, ART-naïve, HIV+ adults included 217 participants, 139 with BMI of 18·0–24·9 kg/m2 and seventy-eight participants with BMI≥25 kg/m2. The primary outcome was time to event (≥25 % decrease in cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cell count) during 18 months of follow-up; secondary outcomes were time to event of CD4 cell count<250 cells/µl and AIDS-defining conditions. Proportional survival hazard models were used to compare hazard ratios (HR) on time to events of HIV disease progression over 18 months. Higher baseline BMI was associated with significantly lower risk of an AIDS-defining condition during the follow-up (HR 0·218; 95 % CI 0·068, 0·701; P=0·011). Higher fat mass at baseline was also significantly associated with decreased risk of AIDS-defining conditions during the follow-up (HR 0·855; 95 % CI 0·741, 0·987; P=0·033) and the combined outcome of having CD4 cell count≤250/µl and AIDS-defining conditions, whichever occurred earlier (HR 0·918; 95 % CI 0·847, 0·994; P=0·036). All models were adjusted for covariates. Higher BMI and fat mass among the HIV-infected, ART-naïve participants were associated with slower disease progression. Mechanistic research is needed to evaluate the association between BMI, fat mass and HIV disease progression.


Blood ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 110 (11) ◽  
pp. 125-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre Goy ◽  
Steven Bernstein ◽  
Brad Kahl ◽  
Benjamin Djulbegovic ◽  
Michael Robertson ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: We previously reported substantial activity with single-agent bortezomib (VELCADE®; Vc) in patients (pts) with relapsed or refractory MCL in the PINNACLE study (JCO2006;24:4867–74), which resulted in approval of Vc for MCL pts following ≥1 prior therapy. All pts have now completed treatment. Here we report updated time-to-event data in all pts, and by response category, with extended follow-up. Methods: 155 pts (median age 65 yrs; 55%/41%/4% with 1/2/≥3 prior therapies; 77% Stage IV MCL; 55% positive bone marrow) received Vc 1.3 mg/m2 on days 1, 4, 8, and 11 of 21-day cycles; of these, 141 were response-evaluable. Response and progression were determined by modified International Workshop Response Criteria using independent radiology review. Results: After a median follow-up of 26.4 mo, 55 pts (35%) remained in follow-up; 93 (60%) had died, 2 (1%) had withdrawn consent, and 5 (3%) were lost to follow-up. Pts received a median of 4 treatment cycles (range 1–21; 8 in responding pts). Median time to first response was 1.3 months. Median duration of response (DOR) was 9.2 mo in all responders and has not been reached in pts achieving CR/CRu. Median time to progression (TTP), time to next therapy (TTNT; first Vc dose to start of next therapy), and overall survival (OS) are shown in the table for all pts and by response. Survival rate at 12-mo was 69% overall and 91% in responding pts. In pts refractory to their last therapy (no response or response with TTP <6 mo; n=58), median DOR was 5.9 mo, median TTP was 3.9 mo, median TTNT was 4.6 mo, and median survival was 17.3 mo. Safety profile was similar to previously reported; most common grade ≥3 AEs were peripheral neuropathy (13%), fatigue (12%), and thrombocytopenia (11%). The most common AE resulting in Vc discontinuation was peripheral neuropathy (10%). Twelve (8%) pts died on-study, including 5 (3%) considered related to Vc. Conclusions: Vc provides durable responses plus prolonged time off-therapy and survival in responding pts, suggesting substantial clinical benefit in relapsed/refractory MCL. Median TTP, TTNT, and OS (months) in all pts and by response All pts (N=155) Responders (N=45) CR/CRu (N=11) PR (N=34) SD (N=52) PD (N=34) NE, not estimable TTP 6.7 12.4 NE 9.1 6.9 1.2 TTNT 7.4 14.3 23.9 13.3 7.0 2.3 OS 23.5 35.4 36.0 35.1 27.8 13.7


Blood ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 120 (21) ◽  
pp. 393-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan R. Kahn ◽  
Stan Shapiro ◽  
Phil S Wells ◽  
Marc A. Rodger ◽  
Michael J. Kovacs ◽  
...  

Abstract Abstract 393 Background: The post-thrombotic syndrome (PTS) is a burdensome, costly complication of deep venous thrombosis (DVT). Investigating strategies to prevent PTS is important, as treatments for PTS are limited. To date, randomized trials of elastic compression stockings (ECS) to prevent PTS were small, single-center, none used a placebo control and results are conflicting. Objective: To determine whether ECS, compared with inactive (placebo) stockings, are effective to prevent PTS in patients with proximal DVT. Methods: We conducted a multicenter (24 centres, Canada and U.S.) randomized placebo controlled trial of active ECS (A-ECS) vs. placebo ECS (P-ECS) to prevent PTS after a first, symptomatic proximal DVT. A-ECS were knee length 30–40 mm Hg (Class II) graduated ECS. P-ECS were manufactured to look identical to A-ECS but lacked therapeutic compression. Stockings were mailed directly to patients and worn on the DVT-affected leg daily for up to 2 years. Patients did not wear their stockings at study follow-up visits (1, 6, 12, 18 and 24 months) to maintain study personnel blinding. The primary study outcome, PTS, was diagnosed at or after the 6 month visit using the Ginsberg measure (leg pain and swelling of 3 1 month duration and typical in character: worse end of day or after prolonged sitting/standing and improved after rest/leg elevation). All PTS diagnoses were confirmed by the local study physicians. Secondary outcomes were incidence and severity of PTS using the Villalta scale, venous ulcers, VTE recurrence and death from VTE. A sample size of 800 patients was targeted based on a hypothesized cumulative incidence of the primary outcome of 30% in P-ECS vs. 20% in A-ECS, 2-tailed a of 0.05 and 80% power, and anticipated 25% rate of death/withdrawal/lost-to-follow-up. Using a modified intent to treat approach, we performed a time-to-event analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for center to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to compare rates of the primary outcome in A-ECS vs. P-ECS. A similar time-to-event analysis was performed for Villalta PTS (Villalta score ≥ 5 at or after the 6 month visit). Results: From 2004–2010, 398 patients were randomized to A-ECS and 408 to P-ECS. 3 patients found to be ineligible soon after randomization were excluded from the analysis. Median time from DVT diagnosis to randomization was 4 days. Baseline features were similar in the 2 groups; overall, 60% were male, mean age was 55 years, and most proximal extent of DVT was iliac or femoral vein in 70% and popliteal vein in 30% of patients. The cumulative incidence of PTS (primary outcome) by 750 days was 14.8% in A-ECS vs. 12.3% in P-ECS (Figure) (HRadj 1.17; 95% CI 0.75–1.81; p=0.49). The cumulative incidence of Villalta PTS (secondary outcome) was 52.1% in A-ECS vs. 52.2% in P-ECS (HRadj 0.96; 95% CI 0.78–1.19; p=0.69). Additional outcomes were also similar in the two intervention groups (Table). Rates of loss to follow-up (5.5% vs. 5.4%) and withdrawal (8.3% vs. 9.1%) were similar in A-ECS and P-ECS. Overall, ∼70% of patients in both groups continued the intervention throughout study follow-up, and of these, >80% of patients in both groups reported use for ≥ 3 days per week. Conclusions: In a large randomized placebo-controlled trial, ECS did not prevent the occurrence of PTS after a first proximal DVT and did not influence the severity of PTS or rate of recurrent VTE. The reported benefits of ECS to prevent PTS in some prior studies could be due, at least in part, to bias from open-label design. Whether ECS may be of benefit to manage symptoms of established PTS should be evaluated in future studies. Disclosures: Kahn: NIH: Research Funding; Canadian Institutes for Health Research: Research Funding; Sigvaris: Research Funding.


2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (9) ◽  
pp. 1389-1405 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Yu ◽  
Robert S. Wilson ◽  
S. Duke Han ◽  
Sue Leurgans ◽  
David A. Bennett ◽  
...  

Objective: To quantify longitudinal change in financial and health literacy and examine the associations of declining literacy with incident Alzheimer’s disease (AD) dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Method: Data came from 799 participants of an ongoing cohort study. Literacy was measured using a battery of 32 questions. Clinical diagnoses were made annually following uniform structured procedures. The associations of declining literacy with incident AD dementia and MCI were tested using a joint model for longitudinal and time-to-event data. Results: We observed an overall decline in total literacy score over up to 6 years of follow-up ( p < .001). Faster decline in literacy was associated with higher risks for incident AD dementia (hazard ratio = 4.526, 95% confidence interval = [2.993, 6.843], p < .001) and incident MCI (hazard ratio = 2.971, 95% confidence interval = [1.509, 5.849], p = .002). Discussion: Declining literacy among community-dwelling older persons predicts adverse cognitive outcomes and serves as an early indicator of impending dementia.


1993 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 867-879 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clarice R. Weinberg ◽  
Donna Day Baird ◽  
Andrew S. Rowland

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