Risk assessment of collisions of an autonomous passenger ferry

2021 ◽  
pp. 1748006X2110507
Author(s):  
Chuanqi Guo ◽  
Stein Haugen ◽  
Ingrid B Utne
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Bayesian Belief Network ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Initial Attempt ◽  
Safety Review ◽  
Autonomous Ship ◽  
Passenger Ferry

Autonomous transportation is an increasingly popular concept and is gradually becoming a reality. This transformation also changes the way people travel. For example, the autonomous ferry is an emerging alternative for residents living in coastal areas. To evaluate the safety of an autonomous ferry, a thorough safety review is necessary. This paper makes an initial attempt by developing a model for performing a risk assessment of collisions between an autonomous ship with manned vessels and applying this to a specific ferry operating in a canal. The safety barriers to prevent a collision are identified, as well as the respective failure modes. A Bayesian belief network is employed to model the collision and to quantitively assess the collision risk of the autonomous ferry. Relevant data are collected to perform a quantitative risk analysis. By running the model, the likelihood of a collision is calculated. A sensitivity analysis is also performed to identify the most contributing causes.

scholarly journals MULTIDIMENSIONAL APPROACH TO THE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF INNOVATIVE PROJECTS RISK ASSESSMENT

2014 ◽  
pp. 72-77
Author(s):  
A. M. Pokrovskiy
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Multidimensional Approach ◽  
Priority Areas ◽  
Empirical Base ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Matrix

Article is devoted to a multidimensional approach to an important part of risk analysis of innovative projects – evaluation of the sensitivity of risk when you change their underlying caus-es. Proposed and tested on a concrete example method of forming an empirical base for modeling the sensitivity of risk evaluations of innovative projects within that do not violate the consistency of the matrix of paired statements. It is shown that this can be obtained economically significant results, including assessment of priority areas of investment elasticity of the weights of different types of risks, and identifying the most sensitive risk factors.

scholarly journals Using EWGM method to optimise the FMEA as a risk assessment methodology

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sahar AL Mashaqbeh ◽  
Jose Eduardo Munive-Hernandez ◽  
Mohammed Khurshid Khan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Risk Ranking

Failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA) is a proactive, highly structured and systematic approach for failure analysis. It has been also applied as a risk assessment tool, by ranking potential risks based on the estimation of risk priority numbers (RPNs). This article develops an improved FMEA methodology for strategic risk analysis. The proposed approach combines the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique with the exponential and weighted geometric mean method (EWGM) to support risk analysis. AHP is applied to estimate the weights of three risk factors: Severity (S), Occurrence (O) and Detection (D), which integrate the RPN for each risk. The EWGM method is applied for ranking RPNs. Combining AHP with EWGM allows avoiding repetition of FMEA results. The results of the developed methodology reveal that duplication of RPNs has been decreased, facilitating an effective risk ranking by offering a unique value for each risk. The proposed methodology not only focuses on high severity values for risk ranking but it also considers other risk factors (O and D), resulting in an enhanced risk assessment process. Furthermore, the weights of the three risk factors are considered. In this way, the developed methodology offers unique value for each risk in a simple way which makes the risk assessment results more accurate. This methodology provides a practical and systematic approach to support decision makers in assessing and ranking risks that could affect long-term strategy implementation. The methodology was validated through the case study of a power plant in the Middle East, assessing 84 risks within 9 risk categories. The case study revealed that top management should pay more attention to key risks associated with electricity price, gas emissions, lost-time injuries, bad odour and production.

scholarly journals Collision Risk Assessment Support System for MASS RO and VTSO Support in Multi-Ship Environment of Vessel Traffic Service Area

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1143
Author(s):  
Yunja Yoo ◽  
Jin-Suk Lee
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Support System ◽  
Situational Awareness ◽  
International Association ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Surface Ship ◽  
System A ◽  
Marine Accidents

The discussions by the International Maritime Organization for the introduction of a maritime autonomous surface ship (MASS) began in earnest. At the 27th ENAV meeting, the International Association of Marine Aids to Navigation and Lighthouse Authorities proposed the “sharing of a common operating picture for situational awareness of the waterway within vessel traffic service (VTS) environment” when developing a system to support MASS operation. Marine accidents caused by collisions on waterways still account for a high percentage of ship accidents that occur at sea, and many studies have investigated the risk of collision between ships. Collision risk assessment was primarily conducted in ship domain-based safety areas. This study evaluates the collision risk using the ship domain derived by the VTS operator (VTSO) and proposes a real-time collision risk assessment support system to improve the situational awareness of VTSOs and MASS remote operators (MASS ROs) regarding near-collision situations occurring in local waters. To evaluate the validity of the proposed system, a risk analysis was performed on near-collision scenarios at Busan Port. The results show that the distance to the closest point of approach (CPA), time to the CPA, and inter-ship distance converged within 0.5 nautical miles, 10 min, and 3 nautical miles, respectively.

Designing Risk Qualitative Assessment on Fiber Optic Instalation Project in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Devi Pratami
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Fiber Optic ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Quality And Safety ◽  
Project Implementation ◽  
Cost Impact ◽  
Implementation Assessment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impact Cost

A project always has risks that can lead to project failure. In the project, a risk analysis is required to provide an evaluation for the project to proceed as planned. In the event of inadequate planning and ineffective control, it will result in irregularities identified as a risk to the project. This study aims to analyze the qualitative risk on Fiber Optic Installaion project in Sukabumi, West Java, Indonesia. In addition, risk assessment is undertaken on project implementation. Assessment of risk using the impact and probability to measure the impact of risk occurrence. The impacts are more detailed by classified by time impact, cost impact, quality impact, safety and security impact, proximity. The result is there are 36 risk that may occur and mostly risks are associaated by quality and safety&security impact.

IRISK METHOD FOR SECURITY ESTIMATION OF THE SIMULATION POLYGON FOR THE PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFORMATION RESOURCES

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bogdan Korniyenko ◽  
Lilia Galata
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information System ◽  
Information Security ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Information Resources ◽  
Security System ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Automated System ◽  
Information Risk ◽  
Critical Information

In this article, the research of information system protection by ana­ ly­ zing the risks for identifying threats for information security is considered. Information risk analysis is periodically conducted to identify information security threats and test the information security system. Currently, various information risk analysis techni­ ques exist and are being used, the main difference being the quantitative or qualitative risk assessment scales. On the basis of the existing methods of testing and evaluation of the vulnerabilities for the automated system, their advantages and disadvantages, for the possibility of further comparison of the spent resources and the security of the information system, the conclusion was made regarding the deter­ mi­ nation of the optimal method of testing the information security system in the context of the simulated polygon for the protection of critical information resources. A simula­ tion ground for the protection of critical information resources based on GNS3 application software has been developed and implemented. Among the considered methods of testing and risk analysis of the automated system, the optimal iRisk methodology was identified for testing the information security system on the basis of the simulated. The quantitative method Risk for security estimation is considered. Generalized iRisk risk assessment is calculated taking into account the following parameters: Vulnerabili­ ty  — vulnerability assessment, Threat — threat assessment, Control — assessment of security measures. The methodology includes a common CVSS vul­ nerability assessment system, which allows you to use constantly relevant coefficients for the calculation of vulnerabilities, as well as have a list of all major vulnerabilities that are associated with all modern software products that can be used in the automated system. The known software and hardware vulnerabilities of the ground are considered and the resistance of the built network to specific threats by the iRisk method is calculated.

scholarly journals The use of the PN-EN 62305-2 standard to the risk assessment of losses in the equipped object in station- devices of the railway traffic controlling

2018 ◽  
Vol 180 ◽  
pp. 05006
Author(s):  
Zofia Wróbel
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Public Services ◽  
Lightning Protection ◽  
Control Panel ◽  
The Public ◽  
Railway Traffic ◽  
Correct Estimation ◽  
Atmospheric Discharges

The valuation of the risk of losses makes easy the correct estimation of resulted threats as a result of atmospheric discharges and harms connected to them. Qualifying the need of lightning protection use for the object, we ought to take into account the risk R for the object and for the public services devices. In every case of examining risks we ought to fulfill: the identification of components RX forming the risk, counting the identified components of the risk RX, the entire risk R, identify the tolerated risk RT and compare the risk R with the tolerated value RT. As a result of such analysis we can come to a decision about the use of protection resources. In the report was realized the risk analysis of devices damages for a chosen object - the signal box with installed station - relaying devices of the railway traffic controlling with a computer adjustable control panel. From the realized analysis results that DEHN Risk Tool is a useful tool for the risk analysis of lightning losses in buildings, making possible the improvement of the calculations process, especially in the range of the choice of proper protection resources.

scholarly journals A Matrix FMEA Analysis of Variable Delivery Vane Pumps

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1741
Author(s):  
Joanna Fabis-Domagala ◽  
Mariusz Domagala ◽  
Hassan Momeni
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
High Reliability ◽  
Matrix Analysis ◽  
Hydraulic Systems ◽  
Vane Pump ◽  
End Effects ◽  
Root Cause ◽  
Preventative Measures ◽  
Fmea Analysis

Hydraulic systems are widely used in the aeronautic, machinery, and energy industries. The functions that these systems perform require high reliability, which can be achieved by examining the causes of possible defects and failures and by taking appropriate preventative measures. One of the most popular methods used to achieve this goal is FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis), the foundations of which were developed and implemented in the early 1950s. It was systematized in the following years and practically implemented. It has also been standardized and implemented as one of the methods of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 9000 series standards on quality assurance and management. Apart from wide application, FMEA has a number of weaknesses, which undoubtedly include risk analysis based on the RPN (Risk Priority Number), which is evaluated as a product of severity, occurrence, and detection. In recent years, the risk analysis has been very often replaced by fuzzy logic. This study proposes the use of matrix analysis and statistical methods for performing simplified RCA (Root Cause Analysis) and for classification potential failures for a variable delivery vane pump. The presented methodology is an extension of matrix FMEA and allows for prioritizing potential failures and their causes in relation to functions performed by pump components, the end effects, and the defined symptoms of failure of the vane pump.

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