scholarly journals MULTIDIMENSIONAL APPROACH TO THE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF INNOVATIVE PROJECTS RISK ASSESSMENT

2014 ◽  
pp. 72-77
Author(s):  
A. M. Pokrovskiy
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Multidimensional Approach ◽  
Priority Areas ◽  
Empirical Base ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Matrix

Article is devoted to a multidimensional approach to an important part of risk analysis of innovative projects – evaluation of the sensitivity of risk when you change their underlying caus-es. Proposed and tested on a concrete example method of forming an empirical base for modeling the sensitivity of risk evaluations of innovative projects within that do not violate the consistency of the matrix of paired statements. It is shown that this can be obtained economically significant results, including assessment of priority areas of investment elasticity of the weights of different types of risks, and identifying the most sensitive risk factors.

Risk assessment of collisions of an autonomous passenger ferry

2021 ◽  
pp. 1748006X2110507
Author(s):  
Chuanqi Guo ◽  
Stein Haugen ◽  
Ingrid B Utne
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Bayesian Belief Network ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Initial Attempt ◽  
Safety Review ◽  
Autonomous Ship ◽  
Passenger Ferry

Autonomous transportation is an increasingly popular concept and is gradually becoming a reality. This transformation also changes the way people travel. For example, the autonomous ferry is an emerging alternative for residents living in coastal areas. To evaluate the safety of an autonomous ferry, a thorough safety review is necessary. This paper makes an initial attempt by developing a model for performing a risk assessment of collisions between an autonomous ship with manned vessels and applying this to a specific ferry operating in a canal. The safety barriers to prevent a collision are identified, as well as the respective failure modes. A Bayesian belief network is employed to model the collision and to quantitively assess the collision risk of the autonomous ferry. Relevant data are collected to perform a quantitative risk analysis. By running the model, the likelihood of a collision is calculated. A sensitivity analysis is also performed to identify the most contributing causes.

scholarly journals Investment Risk Assessment of Dispersed Wind Power in Low Wind Speed Area Using a Hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Lingyun Liu ◽  
Jianli Zhou ◽  
Haoxin Dong ◽  
Yao Tao ◽  
Yunna Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Low Wind Speed ◽  
Fuzzy Linguistic

Reducing the phenomenon of wind curtailment is essential to improve the level of wind power consumption. Wind power development in China has shifted to southeast region and dispersed wind power has developed rapidly and gradually become the new main force. However, various obstacles limit the smooth progress of dispersed wind power in low wind speed area. An important point is the absence of targeted risk analysis and evaluation methods. Therefore, the principal contribution of this paper is to find out the critical risk factors of such projects and propose the risk assessment model. First, 18 critical risk factors are identified using the constructed five-dimensional risk analysis model. Second, the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set with credibility is utilized to collect evaluation information on one hand and to improve the multicriteria decision-making methods involved on the other hand. Third, the risk evaluation and ranking for 10 provinces that mainly develop dispersed wind power is carried out. The evaluation results indicate that the risk level of dispersed wind power projects is “Relatively Low” in most study provinces and the risk levels of Guangdong and Fujian are higher. It is worth noting that the consistency between the evaluation results and the distribution of wind resources can be used to guide the formulation of stimulus policies. Besides, the ranking results show some preference for investment choice. Finally, dual sensitivity analysis tests the stability of the model and shows the ranking results under different decision preferences. Scenario analysis gives the possible risk scenarios and evaluation results in the future. This study can provide insightful inspiration to wind power investors, risk management practitioners, and policymakers.

scholarly journals Using EWGM method to optimise the FMEA as a risk assessment methodology

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sahar AL Mashaqbeh ◽  
Jose Eduardo Munive-Hernandez ◽  
Mohammed Khurshid Khan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Risk Ranking

Failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA) is a proactive, highly structured and systematic approach for failure analysis. It has been also applied as a risk assessment tool, by ranking potential risks based on the estimation of risk priority numbers (RPNs). This article develops an improved FMEA methodology for strategic risk analysis. The proposed approach combines the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique with the exponential and weighted geometric mean method (EWGM) to support risk analysis. AHP is applied to estimate the weights of three risk factors: Severity (S), Occurrence (O) and Detection (D), which integrate the RPN for each risk. The EWGM method is applied for ranking RPNs. Combining AHP with EWGM allows avoiding repetition of FMEA results. The results of the developed methodology reveal that duplication of RPNs has been decreased, facilitating an effective risk ranking by offering a unique value for each risk. The proposed methodology not only focuses on high severity values for risk ranking but it also considers other risk factors (O and D), resulting in an enhanced risk assessment process. Furthermore, the weights of the three risk factors are considered. In this way, the developed methodology offers unique value for each risk in a simple way which makes the risk assessment results more accurate. This methodology provides a practical and systematic approach to support decision makers in assessing and ranking risks that could affect long-term strategy implementation. The methodology was validated through the case study of a power plant in the Middle East, assessing 84 risks within 9 risk categories. The case study revealed that top management should pay more attention to key risks associated with electricity price, gas emissions, lost-time injuries, bad odour and production.

scholarly journals Toxicological Risk Analysis in Data-Poor Countries: A Narrative Approach to Feed an “Awareness Raising—Community Empowerment” Vortex

Medicina ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (11) ◽  
pp. 629
Author(s):  
Chiara Frazzoli
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Toxic Exposures ◽  
Awareness Raising ◽  
Toxicological Risk ◽  
Sub Saharan

Background and objectives: With globalization of culture and products, choices and behaviors associated with the unawareness of toxicological risk factors result in human and environmental toxic exposures along with health disparities. Toxic exposures are risk factors for malnutrition and diseases, impairing the chances of being healthy and having a healthy adulthood for current and next generation(s). Increasing research funds, infrastructures, analytical data and risk assessment is a reality well worth attention in sub-Saharan Africa. These countries are still unprotected nowadays and are particularly exposed and data-poor in respect to risk factors (e.g., neurotoxicants, immunotoxicants and endocrine disruptors). This paper presents how—based on scientific literature—low-resource countries may achieve more with less. As one of the world’s most important emerging markets, Africa can, and should, assess the benefits and risks of modernity versus tradition and ask for safe and quality products at affordable prices while producing safe and nutritious foods. Materials and Methods: Exempla and experiences of risk analysis based on participant observation in field anthropological research, consumer safaris and reportages in the field of food safety, environmental health and consumer products are discussed in terms of “narrative prevention” and its power to highlight previously unrecognized/overlooked real-life risk scenarios. Knowledge return initiatives are discussed in light of their power to feed awareness raising, informed choice and empowerment of communities. Results: In some cases, data exist but remain too sparse, unknown or underused; in other cases, the information is totally neglected. When there is international scientific evidence, a diagnostic risk assessment is feasible. Despite significant resource constraints, properly science-driven targeted reportages in data-poor countries can bridge the gaps between international scientific knowledge and the implementation of relevant findings in an “awareness-empowerment vortex”. When a clear message promoting healthy choices and behaviors is given, African communities are ready to respond. Conclusions: Poor skills are an avoidable consequence of low national income. Narrative prevention does not replace scientific research but stimulates scientific research and toxicological risk analysis during the ongoing risk transition in Africa. While African populations increasingly aspire to improve life expectancy in health, increasing exposure to such new health risk factors in sub-Saharan Africa needs top-down choices for diseases prevention, One Health, as well as public awareness and empowerment towards everyday habits and health protective choices.

Risk Analysis of Hydropower Construction Project Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

2013 ◽  
Vol 357-360 ◽  
pp. 2177-2181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yun Na Wu ◽  
Zi Shan Hu ◽  
Ru Hang Xu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Vector System ◽  
Hydropower Project ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Hydropower Construction

Hydropower construction projects have been faced with more complex risk factors and had higher demands on technology in recent years. It is how to do the risk assessment and management that have been the focus of hydropower project management. In the basis of the analysis of risk factors of hydropower projects, this article has adopted analytic hierarchy to construct the hydropower project risk evaluation index system, and presented 9-scale method in accordance with human experience and judgment to make quantitative risk assessment of the risk factors by weight vector system. With the construction of the risk fuzzy evaluation model and the analysis by examples, it is proved that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method has the applicability for hydropower project risk analysis, which combined qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to strengthen the regulation and evaluation effectiveness.

scholarly journals Risk Analysis at Work in Manufacturing Organization

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (5) ◽  
pp. 1493-1497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maroš Korenko ◽  
Marián Bujna ◽  
Daniela Földešiová ◽  
Petr Dostál ◽  
Peter Kyselica
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Health Hazard ◽  
Acceptable Level ◽  
Complex Method ◽  
Remedial Measures ◽  
Current State ◽  
Reduce Risk ◽  
Manufacturing Organization

Risk is virtually present everywhere around us. Nowadays, there is an increasing focus on safety at work; therefore, the organizations that want to be successful in the market try to eliminate risk factors to a minimum to avoid or prevent the health hazard of employees, damages to property or the environment. The work is focused on the risk assessment of a selected device, which is the most risky workplace according to the organization where the research was conducted. In the practical part, we became familiar with the equipment for welding and a thorough analysis of the current state of safety by a complex method was done. Consequently, corrective actions to reduce risk to an acceptable level were proposed. After that, we reassessed the risks of complex method, and the point method was used to verify the effectiveness of proposed remedial measures.

scholarly journals Identification of the Tourism Risks for Z-Value Based Risk Assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Aziz M. Nuriyev
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Project Approach ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Risks Assessment ◽  
Country Specific

The growing importance of the tourism sector to the global economy contributes to the increase of research in tourism risks assessment. In view of this tendency, the results of research in the field of the risk analysis on tourists’ travels in various countries during the last decades have been analyzed. Commonly used in these studies statistical methods allow to reveal and identify country-specific tourism risks and threats. But it is necessary to underline that relevant statistical data on risks are available not in all cases and countries. Moreover, in most cases, the reliability of the information available is questionable. In order to improve the reliability and quality of the tourist risk assessment, it is proposed to consider tourist travel as a project. The proposed project approach to tourist risk analysis provides an opportunity to go beyond assessment based on available country-specific inferior statistical data and allows to develop a more flexible and versatile method for risk evaluation. Common risk factors and sub-factors for tourists were identified for further risk assessment using suggested by L. Zadeh Z-number. A bi-component Z-number Z = (A, B) with perception-based and imprecise parts A and B, allows taking into account the reliability of the information. Risk experts deal with the prediction like this one “very likely that the level of threat N is medium” or “extremely likely that this factor is very important”. This prediction can be formalized as a Z-number based evaluation and a pack of Z-valuations is considered as Z-information. Experts evaluate identified risk factors and sub-factors and their importance weight using Z-numbers.

scholarly journals Interruption Risk Assessment and Transmission of Fresh Cold Chain Network Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Huanwan Chen ◽  
Qingnian Zhang ◽  
Jing Luo ◽  
Xiuxia Zhang ◽  
Guopeng Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Cold Chain ◽  
Transmission Model

The fresh cold chain network is complex, and the interruption risk can significantly impact it. Based on the Bayesian theory, we constructed a fresh cold chain network interruption risk topology structure. The probability of each root node was predicted and calculated based on the fuzzy set theory. The evaluation model was then validated and improved through the virus transmission model based on risk transmission. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine significant risk factors. Several strategies for minimizing interruption risks were identified.

scholarly journals Risk and Economic Analysis Methods of Commercial Aero Engines

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sherkhan Aitugan ◽  
Longbiao Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Actual State ◽  
Optimal Solutions ◽  
Economical Analysis ◽  
Financial Condition ◽  
Aero Engines ◽  
Operation Risk

This chapter outlines the results of risk analysis and economic analysis of commercial aero engines during aircraft operation. Risk analysis is the procedure for identifying risk factors and assessing their significance, in essence, analysis of the likelihood that certain undesirable events may occur and as such adversely affect operation. Risk analysis includes risk assessment and methods to reduce risks or reduce adverse effects associated with it. Furthermore, economical analysis is a scientific way of understanding the essence of economic phenomena and processes, which in turn are based on dividing them into their constituent parts. In doing so, the variety of relationships and dependencies aimed at improving the associated work through the development and implementation of optimal solutions is studied. The purpose of the economic analysis is to give management of the actual state, and for persons who are not directly working with it, but are interested in its financial condition, the information necessary for an impartial judgment.

Digital risk analysis of cardiovascular diseases: new opportunities for the patients

2008 ◽  
Vol 149 (15) ◽  
pp. 677-684 ◽  
Author(s):  
Csaba Arnold ◽  
Zoltán Englert ◽  
Csaba Szabadhegyi ◽  
Csaba Farsang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Effective Treatment ◽  
Medical History ◽  
Vascular Diseases ◽  
Coronary Risk ◽  
Risk Status ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Graphic Presentation

Authors constructed a software helping the prevention programme of coronary and vascular diseases as the classical risk factors are used for graphic presentation of coronary risk as compared to “normal” risk. By repeated estimation alterations in coronary risk status can be compared to previous ones and thereby help evaluating the changes. This programme is highlighted by the presentation of changes in coronary risk of a patient during a 4-year-long period of her medical history. It is also shown how graphic presentation of risk can support the more effective treatment and patient care.

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