National implementation of reperfusion for acute ischaemic stroke in England: How should services be configured? A modelling study

Objectives To guide policy when planning thrombolysis (IVT) and thrombectomy (MT) services for acute stroke in England, focussing on the choice between ‘mothership’ (direct conveyance to an MT centre) and ‘drip-and-ship’ (secondary transfer) provision and the impact of bypassing local acute stroke centres. Design Outcome-based modelling study. Setting 107 acute stroke centres in England, 24 of which provide IVT and MT (IVT/MT centres) and 83 provide only IVT (IVT-only units). Participants 242,874 emergency admissions with acute stroke over 3 years (2015–2017). Intervention Reperfusion delivered by drip-and-ship, mothership or ‘hybrid’ models; impact of additional travel time to directly access an IVT/MT centre by bypassing a more local IVT-only unit; effect of pre-hospital selection for large artery occlusion (LAO). Main outcome measures Population benefit from reperfusion, time to IVT and MT, admission numbers to IVT-only units and IVT/MT centres. Results Without pre-hospital selection for LAO, 94% of the population of England live in areas where the greatest clinical benefit, assuming unknown patient status, accrues from direct conveyance to an IVT/MT centre. However, this policy produces unsustainable admission numbers at these centres, with 78 out of 83 IVT-only units receiving fewer than 300 admissions per year (compared to 3 with drip-and-ship). Implementing a maximum permitted additional travel time to bypass an IVT-only unit, using a pre-hospital test for LAO, and selecting patients based on stroke onset time, all help to mitigate the destabilising effect but there is still some significant disruption to admission numbers, and improved selection of patients suitable for MT selectively reduces the number of patients who would receive IVT at IVT-only centres, challenging the sustainability of IVT expertise in IVT-only centres. Conclusions Implementation of reperfusion for acute stroke based solely on achieving the maximum population benefit potentially leads to destabilisation of the emergency stroke care system. Careful planning is required to create a sustainable system, and modelling may be used to help planners maximise benefit from reperfusion while creating a sustainable emergency stroke care system.

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Epidemiological Surveillance of the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stroke Care Using Artificial Intelligence

Stroke ◽

10.1161/strokeaha.120.031960 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Raul G. Nogueira ◽

Jason M. Davies ◽

Rishi Gupta ◽

Ameer E. Hassan ◽

Thomas Devlin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Artificial Intelligence ◽

Acute Stroke ◽

Systems Of Care ◽

Ct Perfusion ◽

Stroke Care ◽

Large Vessel ◽

Large Vessel Occlusion ◽

Vessel Occlusion ◽

Number Of Patients ◽

The Impact

Background and Purpose: The degree to which the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected systems of care, in particular, those for time-sensitive conditions such as stroke, remains poorly quantified. We sought to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 in the overall screening for acute stroke utilizing a commercial clinical artificial intelligence platform. Methods: Data were derived from the Viz Platform, an artificial intelligence application designed to optimize the workflow of patients with acute stroke. Neuroimaging data on suspected patients with stroke across 97 hospitals in 20 US states were collected in real time and retrospectively analyzed with the number of patients undergoing imaging screening serving as a surrogate for the amount of stroke care. The main outcome measures were the number of computed tomography (CT) angiography, CT perfusion, large vessel occlusions (defined according to the automated software detection), and severe strokes on CT perfusion (defined as those with hypoperfusion volumes >70 mL) normalized as number of patients per day per hospital. Data from the prepandemic (November 4, 2019 to February 29, 2020) and pandemic (March 1 to May 10, 2020) periods were compared at national and state levels. Correlations were made between the inter-period changes in imaging screening, stroke hospitalizations, and thrombectomy procedures using state-specific sampling. Results: A total of 23 223 patients were included. The incidence of large vessel occlusion on CT angiography and severe strokes on CT perfusion were 11.2% (n=2602) and 14.7% (n=1229/8328), respectively. There were significant declines in the overall number of CT angiographies (−22.8%; 1.39–1.07 patients/day per hospital, P <0.001) and CT perfusion (−26.1%; 0.50–0.37 patients/day per hospital, P <0.001) as well as in the incidence of large vessel occlusion (−17.1%; 0.15–0.13 patients/day per hospital, P <0.001) and severe strokes on CT perfusion (−16.7%; 0.12–0.10 patients/day per hospital, P <0.005). The sampled cohort showed similar declines in the rates of large vessel occlusions versus thrombectomy (18.8% versus 19.5%, P =0.9) and comprehensive stroke center hospitalizations (18.8% versus 11.0%, P =0.4). Conclusions: A significant decline in stroke imaging screening has occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. This analysis underscores the broader application of artificial intelligence neuroimaging platforms for the real-time monitoring of stroke systems of care.

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Impact of National Lockdown on the Hyperacute Stroke Care and Rapid Transient Ischaemic Attack Outpatient Service in a Comprehensive Tertiary Stroke Centre During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Frontiers in Neurology ◽

10.3389/fneur.2021.627493 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

Author(s):

Lucio D'Anna ◽

Maddison Brown ◽

Sikdar Oishi ◽

Natalya Ellis ◽

Zoe Brown ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Acute Stroke ◽

Outpatient Service ◽

Stroke Care ◽

Reperfusion Therapy ◽

Long Term Effects ◽

Number Of Patients ◽

Stroke Center ◽

Ischemic Attack ◽

The Uk ◽

The Impact

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is having major implications for stroke services worldwide. We aimed to study the impact of the national lockdown period during the COVID-19 outbreak on stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) care in London, UK.Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from a quality improvement registry of consecutive patients presenting with acute ischemic stroke and TIA to the Stroke Department, Imperial College Health Care Trust London during the national lockdown period (between March 23rd and 30th June 2020). As controls, we evaluated the clinical reports and stroke quality metrics of patients presenting with stroke or TIA in the same period of 2019.Results: Between March 23rd and 30th June 2020, we documented a fall in the number of stroke admissions by 31.33% and of TIA outpatient referrals by 24.44% compared to the same period in 2019. During the lockdown, we observed a significant increase in symptom onset-to-door time in patients presenting with stroke (median = 240 vs. 160 min, p = 0.020) and TIA (median = 3 vs. 0 days, p = 0.002) and a significant reduction in the total number of patients thrombolysed [27 (11.49%) vs. 46 (16.25%, p = 0.030)]. Patients in the 2020 cohort presented with a lower median pre-stroke mRS (p = 0.015), but an increased NIHSS (p = 0.002). We registered a marked decrease in mimic diagnoses compared to the same period of 2019. Statistically significant differences were found between the COVID and pre-COVID cohorts in the time from onset to door (median 99 vs. 88 min, p = 0.026) and from onset to needle (median 148 vs. 126 min, p = 0.036) for thrombolysis whilst we did not observe any significant delay to reperfusion therapies (door-to-needle and door-to-groin puncture time).Conclusions: National lockdown in the UK due to the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a significant decrease in acute stroke admission and TIA evaluations at our stroke center. Moreover, a lower proportion of acute stroke patients in the pandemic cohort benefited from reperfusion therapy. Further research is needed to evaluate the long-term effects of the pandemic on stroke care.

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Abstract 42: Epidemiological Surveillance of the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Stroke Care Using Artificial Intelligence

Stroke ◽

10.1161/str.52.suppl_1.42 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 52 (Suppl_1) ◽

Author(s):

Raul Nogueira ◽

Jason Davies ◽

Rishi Gupta ◽

Ameer E Hassan ◽

Thomas G Devlin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Artificial Intelligence ◽

Acute Stroke ◽

Real Time ◽

Systems Of Care ◽

Stroke Care ◽

Epidemiological Surveillance ◽

Day Hospital ◽

Stroke Patients ◽

Number Of Patients ◽

The Impact

Background: The degree to which the COVID-19 pandemic has affected systems of care, in particular those for time-sensitive conditions such as stroke, remains poorly quantified. We sought to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 in the overall screening for acute stroke utilizing a commercial clinical artificial intelligence (AI) platform. Methods: Data were derived from the Viz Platform, an AI application designed to optimize the workflow of acute stroke patients. Neuroimaging data on suspected stroke patients across 97 hospitals in 20 US states were collected in real-time and retrospectively analyzed with the number of patients undergoing imaging screening serving as a surrogate for the amount of stroke care. The main outcome measures were the number of CTA, CTP, Large vessel occlusions (LVOs) (defined according to the automated software detection), and severe strokes on CTP (defined as those with hypoperfusion volumes>70mL) normalized as number of patients per day per hospital. Data from the pre-pandemic (November 4, 2019 to February 29, 2020) and pandemic (March 1 to May 10, 2020) periods were compared at national and state levels. Correlations were made between the inter-period changes in imaging screening, stroke hospitalizations, and thrombectomy procedures using state-specific sampling. Results: A total of 23,223 patients were included. The incidence of LVO on CTA and severe strokes on CTP were 11.2%(n=2,602) and 14.7%(n=1,229/8,328), respectively. There were significant declines in the overall number of CTAs (-22.8%;1.39 to 1.07 patients/day/hospital,p<0.001) and CTPs (-26.1%;0.50 to 0.37 patients/day/hospital,p<0.001) as well as in the incidence of LVO (-17.1%;0.15 to 0.13 patients/day/hospital,p<0.001) and severe strokes on CTP (-16.7%;0.12 to 0.10 patients/day/hospital, p<0.005). The sampled cohort showed similar declines in the rates of LVOs versus thrombectomy (18.8%vs.19.5%, p=0.9) and CSC hospitalizations (18.8%vs.11.0%, p=0.4). Conclusions: A significant decline in stroke imaging screening has occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. This underscores the broader application of AI neuroimaging platforms for the real-time monitoring of stroke systems of care.

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Bottlenecks in the Acute Stroke Care System during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Catalonia

Cerebrovascular Diseases ◽

10.1159/000516309 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-9

Author(s):

Anna Ramos-Pachón ◽

Álvaro García-Tornel ◽

Mònica Millán ◽

Marc Ribó ◽

Sergi Amaro ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Acute Stroke ◽

Functional Outcome ◽

Stroke Care ◽

Care Quality ◽

Point Of View ◽

Stroke Severity ◽

Acute Stroke Care ◽

Vessel Occlusion ◽

Prehospital Delays ◽

The Impact

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in significant healthcare reorganizations, potentially striking standard medical care. We investigated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on acute stroke care quality and clinical outcomes to detect healthcare system’s bottlenecks from a territorial point of view. Methods: Crossed-data analysis between a prospective nation-based mandatory registry of acute stroke, Emergency Medical System (EMS) records, and daily incidence of COVID-19 in Catalonia (Spain). We included all stroke code activations during the pandemic (March 15–May 2, 2020) and an immediate prepandemic period (January 26–March 14, 2020). Primary outcomes were stroke code activations and reperfusion therapies in both periods. Secondary outcomes included clinical characteristics, workflow metrics, differences across types of stroke centers, correlation analysis between weekly EMS alerts, COVID-19 cases, and workflow metrics, and impact on mortality and clinical outcome at 90 days. Results: Stroke code activations decreased by 22% and reperfusion therapies dropped by 29% during the pandemic period, with no differences in age, stroke severity, or large vessel occlusion. Calls to EMS were handled 42 min later, and time from onset to hospital arrival increased by 53 min, with significant correlations between weekly COVID-19 cases and more EMS calls (rho = 0.81), less stroke code activations (rho = −0.37), and longer prehospital delays (rho = 0.25). Telestroke centers were afflicted with higher reductions in stroke code activations, reperfusion treatments, referrals to endovascular centers, and increased delays to thrombolytics. The independent odds of death increased (OR 1.6 [1.05–2.4], p 0.03) and good functional outcome decreased (mRS ≤2 at 90 days: OR 0.6 [0.4–0.9], p 0.015) during the pandemic period. Conclusion: During the COVID-19 pandemic, Catalonia’s stroke system’s weakest points were the delay to EMS alert and a decline of stroke code activations, reperfusion treatments, and interhospital transfers, mostly at local centers. Patients suffering an acute stroke during the pandemic period had higher odds of poor functional outcome and death. The complete stroke care system’s analysis is crucial to allocate resources appropriately.

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Development of the Madrid Stroke Programme: Milestones and Changes in Stroke Trends and Mortality from 1997 to 2017

Neuroepidemiology ◽

10.1159/000514077 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-6

Author(s):

Silvia Pastor ◽

Elena de Celis ◽

Itsaso Losantos García ◽

María Alonso de Leciñana ◽

Blanca Fuentes ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hospital Mortality ◽

Hospital Admissions ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Intravenous Thrombolysis ◽

Stroke Care ◽

Care Organization ◽

Stroke Units ◽

Health Region ◽

Number Of Patients ◽

The Impact

Introduction: Stroke is a serious health problem, given it is the second leading cause of death and a major cause of disability in the European Union. Our study aimed to assess the impact of stroke care organization measures (such as the development of stroke units, implementation of a regional stroke code, and treatment with intravenous thrombolysis and mechanical thrombectomy) implemented from 1997 to 2017 on hospital admissions due to stroke and mortality attributed to stroke in the Madrid health region. Methods: Epidemiological data were obtained from the National Statistics Institute public website. We collected data on the number of patients discharged with a diagnosis of stroke, in-hospital mortality due to stroke and the number of inhabitants in the Madrid health region each year. We calculated rates of discharges and mortality due to stroke and the number of inhabitants per SU bed, and we analysed temporal trends in in-hospital mortality due to stroke using the Daniels test in 2 separate time periods (before and after 2011). Figures representing annual changes in these data from 1997 to 2017 were elaborated, marking stroke care organizational measures in the year they were implemented to visualize their temporal relation with changes in stroke statistics. Results: Hospital discharges with a diagnosis of stroke have increased from 170.3/100,000 inhabitants in 1997 to 230.23/100,000 inhabitants in 2017. However, the in-hospital mortality rate due to stroke has decreased (from 33.3 to 15.2%). A statistically significant temporal trend towards a decrease in the mortality percentage and rate was found from 1997 to 2011. Conclusions: Our study illustrates how measures such as the development of stroke units, implementation of a regional stroke code and treatment with intravenous thrombolysis coincide in time with a reduction in in-hospital mortality due to stroke.

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Abstract NS6: To Rest or Mobilize... When to Start Early Mobilization in Acute Stroke: a Systematic Review

Stroke ◽

10.1161/str.47.suppl_1.ns6 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 47 (suppl_1) ◽

Author(s):

Michelle Whaley ◽

Wendy Dusenbury ◽

Andrei V Alexandrov ◽

Georgios Tsivgoulis ◽

Anne W Alexandrov

Keyword(s):

Systematic Review ◽

Ischemic Stroke ◽

Acute Stroke ◽

Early Mobilization ◽

Future Research ◽

Cochrane Central Register ◽

Large Artery ◽

Stroke Subtype ◽

Vascular Insufficiency ◽

The Impact

Background: Recent nursing initiatives encourage early mobilization of neurocritical care patients, but whether this intervention can be safely generalized to acute stroke is debatable. We performed a systematic review of findings from recent studies to provide direction for patient management and future research. Methods: An exhaustive literature search was performed in Medline, SCOPUS and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials to identify published clinical trial research using a very early mobility intervention (within 24 hours) in acute ischemic stroke patients. The primary efficacy outcome supporting the search was neurologic disability reduction or improved functional outcomes, and the primary safety outcome was neurologic deterioration. Studies were critically reviewed for inclusion by 3 separate investigators, findings were synthesized, and an overall recommendation for very early mobilization use in acute stroke was assigned according to GRADE criteria. Results: We initially identified 12 papers focused on early mobilization in acute stroke; of these, 6 observational studies were excluded, 1 study was excluded due to an ambiguous population, and 3 studies were excluded due to first initial mobilization out of bed occurring greater than 24 hours after admission. Two prospective randomized outcome blinded evaluation (PROBE) studies were retained, consisting of a total 2160 patients; ischemic stroke subtype was not disclosed in either study, limiting an understanding of the impact of very early mobilization on small versus large artery occlusion. Slower mobilization occurring beyond the first 24 hours was associated with higher rates of favorable outcome (mRS 0-2) at 90 days, whereas very early mobilization within the first 24 hours was associated with a number needed to harm of 25. Conclusions: In acute stroke, evidence supports a rested approach to care within the first 24 hours of hospitalization (GRADE: Strong recommendation, high quality of evidence). Similar to acute myocardial infarction, vascular insufficiency experienced in stroke likely warrants a more guarded approach to mobility. Additional studies exploring timing beyond 24 hours and dose of mobility interventions are warranted in discreet populations.

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Abstract P141: Global Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Acute Stroke and Mechanical Thrombectomy - An International Survey

Stroke ◽

10.1161/str.52.suppl_1.p141 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 52 (Suppl_1) ◽

Author(s):

Dileep R Yavagal ◽

Vasu Saini ◽

Violiza Inoa ◽

Hannah E Gardener ◽

Sheila O Martins ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Acute Stroke ◽

Mechanical Thrombectomy ◽

High Volume ◽

Stroke Care ◽

Acute Stroke Care ◽

Treatment Practices ◽

Global Impact ◽

Significant Difference ◽

The World ◽

The Impact

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has strained the healthcare systems across the world but its impact on acute stroke care is just being elucidated. We hypothesized a major global impact of COVID-19 not only on stroke volumes but also on thrombectomy practice. Methods: A 19-item questionnaire survey aimed to identify the changes in stroke volumes and treatment practices seen during COVID-19 pandemic was designed using Qualtrics software. It was sent to stroke and neuro-interventional physicians around the world who are part of the executive committee of a global coalition, Mission Thrombectomy 2020 (MT2020) between April 5 th to May 15 th , 2020. Results: There were 113 responses across 25 countries. Globally there was a median 33% decrease in stroke admissions and a 25% decrease in mechanical thrombectomy (MT) procedures during COVID-19 pandemic compared to immediately preceding months (Figure 1A-B). This overall median decrease was despite a median increase in stroke volume in 4 European countries which diverted all stroke patients to only a few selected centers during the pandemic. The intubation policy during the pandemic for patients undergoing MT was highly variable across participating centers: 44% preferred intubating all patients, including 25% centers that changed their policy to preferred-intubation (PI) vs 27% centers that switched to preferred-conscious-sedation (PCS). There was no significant difference in rate of COVID-19 infection between PI vs PCS (p=0.6) or if intubation policy was changed in either direction (p=1). Low-volume (<10 stroke/month) compared with high-volume stroke centers (>20 strokes/month) are less likely to have neurointerventional suite specific written personal protective equipment protocols (74% vs 88%) and if present, these centers are more likely to report them to be inadequate (58% vs 92%). Conclusion: Our data provides a comprehensive snapshot of the impact on acute stroke care observed worldwide during the pandemic.

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Abstract 3446: Inpatient Code Stroke Protocol: A Quality Improvement and Knowledge Translation Strategy for a Challenging Scenario

Stroke ◽

10.1161/str.43.suppl_1.a3446 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 43 (suppl_1) ◽

Author(s):

Jacqueline D Willems ◽

Krsytyna Skrabka ◽

Roseane Nisenbaum ◽

Judith Barnaby ◽

Pawel Kostyrko ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Quality Improvement ◽

Acute Stroke ◽

Robust Regression ◽

Stroke Care ◽

Initial Assessment ◽

Stroke Severity ◽

Care Hospital ◽

Presenting Symptoms ◽

Number Of Patients ◽

Assessment And Treatment

Background: Stroke care faces a clinical challenge in treating inhospital strokes, which account for about 15% of all strokes. Prior studies showed an inequity in the assessment and treatment of inpatients who suffer a stroke versus out-of hospital. For example, inpatients have longer time to initial assessment, CT and are less likely (wait longer) to receive tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA). There is limited research evaluating the efficacy of inpatient code stroke protocols (ICSP) on access to and quality of hyper-acute stroke care. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of the ICSP in a large tertiary care hospital. Methods: This prospective study evaluated a quality improvement strategy involving ICSP implementation at St Michael’s Hospital in 2009. The ICSP focuses on the identification of stroke symptoms and timely notification of most responsible physician, then leverages the Emergency Department code stroke process. A 3-month hospital-wide implementation period involved 60 min. education sessions with a minimum of 2 sessions per unit. Demographic factors, presenting symptoms, stroke severity, vascular risk factors as well as time of: symptoms onset, CT; and physician assessment were collected by chart abstraction after ethics approval. The primary outcomes was time from last seen normal (LSN) to CT scan. Secondary outcomes include time from LSN to initial assessment (IA), medical complications and number of patients receiving endovascular interventions or intravenous thrombolysis. The analysis was completed by comparing unadjusted and adjusted outcomes pre and post implementation of the ICSP. Descriptive statistics and robust regression was completed using SAS 9.0. Results: Overall, there were 245 inhospital strokes during the study period (152 pre and 93 post ICSP implementation). Mean age was 69.8 yrs, 60% were male. Most inpatient strokes occurred on cardiovascular services (42.9%). Main results summarized in table . There was no difference in the number of patients receiving thrombolysis or endovascular treatment. After adjustment for covariates, the ICS was associated with a significant reduction of 288 minutes (95%CI -566, -10) in time from LSN to CT. Similarly, there was significant reduction of 307 (95%CI -532, -82) in time from LSN to IA. Conclusions: Implementation of the ICSP resulted in improvements in the process indicators related to assessment and treatment of hyper-acute stroke. Similar quality improvement strategies can be implemented to ameliorate disparities between care for inpatients and outpatient presenting with an acute ischemic stroke.

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Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Incidence, Prehospital Evaluation, and Presentation of Ischemic Stroke at a Nonurban Comprehensive Stroke Center

Stroke Research and Treatment ◽

10.1155/2021/6624231 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2021 ◽

pp. 1-5

Author(s):

Cesar Velasco ◽

Brandon Wattai ◽

Scott Buchle ◽

Alicia Richardson ◽

Varun Padmanaban ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Urban Areas ◽

Stroke Care ◽

Final Diagnosis ◽

Medical Attention ◽

Presenting Symptoms ◽

Number Of Patients ◽

Community Transmission ◽

Comprehensive Stroke Center ◽

Stroke Center ◽

The Impact

Introduction. Many reports have described a decrease in the numbers of patients seeking medical attention for typical emergencies during the COVID-19 pandemic. These reports primarily relate to urban areas with widespread community transmission. The impact of COVID-19 on nonurban areas with minimal community transmission is less well understood. Methods. Using a prospectively maintained prehospital quality improvement database, we reviewed our hospital EMS transports with a diagnosis of stroke from January to April 2019 (baseline) and January to April 2020 (pandemic). We compared the volume of patients, transport/presentation times, severity of presenting symptoms, and final diagnosis. Results. In January, February, March, and April 2019, 10, 11, 17, and 19 patients, respectively, were transported in comparison to 19, 14, 10, and 8 during the same months in 2020. From January through April 2019, there was a 53% increase in transports, compared to a 42% decrease during the same months in 2020, constituting significantly different trend-line slopes (3.30; 95% CI 0.48–6.12 versus -3.70; 95% CI -5.76–-1.64, p = 0.001 ). Patient demographics, comorbidities, and symptom severity were mostly similar over the two time periods, and the number of patients with a final diagnosis of stroke was also similar. However, the median interval from EMS dispatch to ED arrival for patients with a final diagnosis of stroke was significantly longer in January to April 2020 ( 50 ± 11.7 min ) compared to the same time period in 2019 ( 42 ± 8.2 min , p = 0.01 ). Discussion/Conclusion. Our data indicate a decrease in patient transport volumes and longer intervals to EMS activation for suspected stroke care. These results suggest that even in a nonurban location without widespread community transmission, patients may be delaying or avoiding care for severe illnesses such as stroke. Clinicians and public health officials should not ignore the potential impact of pandemic-like illnesses even in areas of relatively low disease prevalence.

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