Challenges and opportunities in New Zealand seismic hazard and risk modeling using OpenQuake

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. 210-225
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Abbott ◽  
Nick Horspool ◽  
Matt Gerstenberger ◽  
Rand Huso ◽  
Chris Van Houtte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Legacy Code ◽  
Fortran Code ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Kaikoura Earthquake ◽  
Post Disaster

The corrected 2010 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model has been adapted for use in the Global Earthquake Model’s OpenQuake engine through an extensive benchmarking exercise with GNS Science’s legacy Fortran code. Resolution of differences between the legacy code and OpenQuake result in hazard curve output comparisons with discrepancies of less than 3% nationally and remaining discrepancies highlight challenges faced when moving away from in-house legacy code. OpenQuake’s multiple and varied computation options for both hazard and risk and OpenQuake’s consistent, software-friendly output formats allow for exploration and development of innovative approaches to future seismic hazard and risk modeling in New Zealand. The end-to-end seismic hazard-to-risk capabilities already enabled by the inclusion of New Zealand seismic hazard, vulnerability, and building exposure models in OpenQuake have already had significant impact on post-disaster response to the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake.

Forecasting for a Fractured Land: A Case Study of the Communication and Use of Aftershock Forecasts from the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake in Aotearoa New Zealand

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (6) ◽  
pp. 3343-3357
Author(s):  
Julia S. Becker ◽  
Sally H. Potter ◽  
Sara K. McBride ◽  
Emma E. H. Doyle ◽  
Matthew C. Gerstenberger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
The Public ◽  
Aotearoa New Zealand ◽  
Future Earthquake ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Additional Support ◽  
Kaikoura Earthquake

Abstract Operational earthquake forecasts (OEFs) are represented as time-dependent probabilities of future earthquake hazard and risk. These probabilities can be presented in a variety of formats, including tables, maps, and text-based scenarios. In countries such as Aotearoa New Zealand, the U.S., and Japan, OEFs have been released by scientific organizations to agencies and the public, with the intent of providing information about future earthquake hazard and risk, so that people can use this information to inform their decisions and activities. Despite questions being raised about the utility of OEF for decision-making, past earthquake events have shown that agencies and the public have indeed made use of such forecasts. Responses have included making decisions about safe access into buildings, cordoning, demolition safety, timing of infrastructure repair and rebuild, insurance, postearthquake building standards, postevent land-use planning, and public communication about aftershocks. To add to this body of knowledge, we undertook a survey to investigate how agencies and GNS Science staff used OEFs that were communicated following the Mw 7.8 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in Aotearoa New Zealand. We found that agencies utilized OEFs in many of the ways listed previously, and we document individual employee’s actions taken in their home-life context. Challenges remain, however, regarding the interpretation of probabilistic information and applying this to practical decision-making. We suggest that science agencies cannot expect nontechnical users to understand and utilize forecasts without additional support. This might include developing a diversity of audience-relevant OEF information for communication purposes, alongside advice on how such information could be utilized.

scholarly journals Does Leadership Style Differ between a Post-Disaster and Non-Disaster Response Project? A Study of Three Major Projects in New Zealand

Buildings ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 195
Author(s):  
Frederick Witton ◽  
Eziaku Onyeizu Rasheed ◽  
James Olabode Bamidele Rotimi
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Leadership Styles ◽  
Leadership Style ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Disaster Recovery ◽  
Staff Retention ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Transformational And Transactional Leadership ◽  
Post Disaster

Purpose–The leadership styles of three major infrastructure projects within New Zealand were determined and comparatively analysed to ascertain whether the leadership style employed in a post-disaster recovery project would differ significantly from a normal infrastructure project. A multifactor leadership questionnaire was administered to project leaders and personnel of the three infrastructure projects. The statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) in leadership styles were determined using one-way ANOVA analytical tool in STATISTICA 13. Results showed all three projects have strong transformational and transactional leadership traits. There were similarities in leadership style amongst the projects. None of the projects had a significant laissez-faire leadership style. Hence there is no significant difference in leadership style between a disaster recovery project and a normal project. Plausible reasons and implications are provided to support these findings. This study provides insight into leadership styles employed in projects in New Zealand, which could assist in the decision-making process for new and existing projects. Future studies could investigate the effect a combination of leadership styles will have on project success and staff retention. More studies are required across New Zealand to verify the generalizability of the current study findings.

Challenges and Opportunities in Turning Large U.S. Archives of Analog Seismograms into a Modern Usable Resource

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (3) ◽  
pp. 1531-1541
Author(s):  
Paul G. Richards ◽  
Margaret Hellweg
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Practical Experience ◽  
Earthquake Physics ◽  
Timing Information ◽  
Earthquake Sources ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Test Ban ◽  
Level Of Effort

Abstract Quantitative seismology is based firmly on the analysis of actual ground motions, and the transition to digital recording in the 1980s enabled sophisticated new capabilities to extract useful results from waveforms. With some effort, these tools can also be applied to analog records. Focusing on assets available within U.S. institutions, we review the necessary steps and the challenges in enabling “data rescue”—that is, preserving the scientific information latent in large analog seismogram archives and making it usable. They include: determining what assets are available (the analog seismogram archives held by various institutions, with associated metadata on instrument responses, station locations, and timing information); developing a consensus on the top level of a triage process (which analog records most definitely should be rescued?); deciding the level of quality needed in copying original seismograms to media suitable for digitizing; assessing the relative merits of scanning and digitizing; and, the need for a community service in distributing scans and digital records, as they accumulate. The necessary level of effort can benefit from practical experience. For example, specific studies have used digitized versions of analog recordings to model earthquake sources and assess seismic hazard. Other studies have used them to gain experience with nuclear explosion signals recorded at regional distances, noting that regional signals enable explosions to be monitored down to levels much lower than those attainable teleseismically. The opportunities presented by large archives of analog seismograms include the insights they present to current and future seismologists studying earthquakes and explosions, into the practical areas of assessing seismic hazard, monitoring for test ban compliance down to low explosion yields—and prompt characterization of actual explosions should they occur, as well the traditional academic pursuit of a better understanding of earthquake physics.

Framework for a Ground-Motion Model for Induced Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis in the Groningen Gas Field, The Netherlands

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 481-498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian J. Bommer ◽  
Peter J. Stafford ◽  
Benjamin Edwards ◽  
Bernard Dost ◽  
Ewoud van Dedem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Quantitative Estimation ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Small Magnitude ◽  
Ground Motion Model ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Groningen Gas Field

The potential for building damage and personal injury due to induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field is being modeled in order to inform risk management decisions. To facilitate the quantitative estimation of the induced seismic hazard and risk, a ground motion prediction model has been developed for response spectral accelerations and duration due to these earthquakes that originate within the reservoir at 3 km depth. The model is consistent with the motions recorded from small-magnitude events and captures the epistemic uncertainty associated with extrapolation to larger magnitudes. In order to reflect the conditions in the field, the model first predicts accelerations at a rock horizon some 800 m below the surface and then convolves these motions with frequency-dependent nonlinear amplification factors assigned to zones across the study area. The variability of the ground motions is modeled in all of its constituent parts at the rock and surface levels.

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