scholarly journals Impact of risk stratification on outcome among patients with multiple myeloma receiving initial therapy with lenalidomide and dexamethasone

Blood ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 114 (3) ◽  
pp. 518-521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prashant Kapoor ◽  
Shaji Kumar ◽  
Rafael Fonseca ◽  
Martha Q. Lacy ◽  
Thomas E. Witzig ◽  
...  

Abstract The outcome of patients with multiple myeloma is dictated primarily by cytogenetic abnormalities and proliferative capacity of plasma cells. We studied the outcome after initial therapy with lenalidomide-dexamethasone among 100 newly diagnosed patients, risk-stratified by genetic abnormalities and plasma cell labeling index. A total of 16% had high-risk multiple myeloma, defined by the presence of hypodiploidy, del(13q) by metaphase cytogenetics, del(17p), IgH translocations [t(4;14), or t(14;16)] or plasma cell labeling index more than or equal to 3%. Response rates were 81% vs 89% in the high-risk and standard-risk groups, respectively. The median progression-free survival was shorter in the high-risk group (18.5 vs 36.5 months, P < .001), but overall survival was comparable. Because of unavailability of all tests for every patient, we separately analyzed 55 stringently classified patients, and the results were similar. In conclusion, high-risk patients achieve less durable responses with lenalidomide-dexamethasone compared with standard-risk patients; no significant differences in overall survival are apparent so far. These results need confirmation in larger, prospectively designed studies.

Blood ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 126 (23) ◽  
pp. 2991-2991
Author(s):  
Peter A. Forsberg ◽  
Tomer M Mark ◽  
Sujitha Yadlapati ◽  
Adriana C Rossi ◽  
Roger N Pearse ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Assessment of malignant plasma cell cycling via plasma cell labeling index (PCLI) has been a validated prognostic tool in multiple myeloma (MM) for years but utilization remains limited. We recently developed a novel immunohistochemical (IHC) co-staining technique for CD138 and Ki67 expression to quantify plasma cells in active cycling. Previously presented results from newly diagnosed patients demonstrate that having an elevated ratio of plasma cells in active cycle by co-expression of CD138 and Ki67 (>5%) is associated with aggressive disease and poor outcomes including shorter overall survival (OS). The expansion of subclones with higher proliferative capacity following initial therapy may be an indicator of a higher risk relapse event and indicate poor prognosis. Here we assess MM patients (pts) with Ki67/CD138 co-staining on bone marrow samples both at diagnosis and relapse to assess the impact of changes in cell cycling ratio on outcomes with subsequent therapy and overall clinical course. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of pts with treated symptomatic MM was performed by interrogation of the clinical database at the Weill Cornell Medical College / New York Presbyterian Hospital (WCMC/NYPH). For inclusion in the analysis, pts must have had bone marrow evaluation with double-staining for Ki67 and CD138 by immunohistochemistry both at diagnosis and relapse. Pts must have completed their first line and relapse treatments at WCMC/NYPH. The Ki67% was calculated as the ratio of plasma cells expressing CD138 that were also found to express Ki67. Treatment outcomes were stratified and compared based on alterations in Ki67% between diagnosis and relapse. Results: We identified 37 pts with bone marrow sampling that was evaluated for CD138 and Ki67 co-expression both at diagnosis and at the time of relapse. These pts had undergone a median of 2 lines of prior treatment at the time of relapse bone marrow biopsy (range 1-7). 19 pts were identified to have a rising Ki67% between diagnosis and relapse defined at a 5% or greater increase, the other 18 pts had stable or decreased Ki67%. Pts with a rising Ki67% at relapse had a shorter OS with a median of 72 months vs not reached (p=0.0069), Figure 1. Pts who had rising Ki67% at relapse had shorter progression free survival (PFS) on first line treatment with a median of 25 vs 47 months (p=0.036), Figure 2. Additionally pts with rising Ki67% had a trend towards shorter PFS with the treatment they received after relapse with median of 12.5 vs 3.5 months (p=0.09). Relapse regimens were most commonly carfilzomib (n=9), pomalidomide (5) or ixazomib (4) based. 37% of pts (7/19) with rising Ki67% achieved PR or better on relapsed treatment vs 67% (12/18) with stable Ki67%. Discussion: The presence of clonal evolution and selection of higher risk clones under therapeutic pressure in multiple myeloma is a key feature of disease progression. The ability to improve risk stratification at the time of relapse may help guide clinical decision making to best suit individual patient needs. We have identified rising plasma cell proliferation through quantification of Ki67/CD138 co-expression at relapse to be a useful marker of high risk disease evolution. This appears to help identify the emergence of higher risk clones which are ultimately responsible for treatment resistant disease. Patients with rising Ki67% were more likely than patients with stable Ki67% to have early relapses to initial therapy, were less likely to achieve responses to relapse regimens or to maintain their response and had shorter overall survival. Further evaluation is needed to identify if different approaches to patients with increasing proliferation may improve outcomes in these patients. Figure 1. Figure 1. Figure 2. Figure 2. Disclosures Mark: Calgene: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau. Rossi:Calgene: Speakers Bureau. Pearse:Celegen: Consultancy. Pekle:Celgene: Speakers Bureau; Takeda: Speakers Bureau. Perry:Celgene: Speakers Bureau; Takeda: Speakers Bureau. Coleman:Celgene: Speakers Bureau; Takeda: Speakers Bureau. Niesvizky:Celgene: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau.


Blood ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 119 (9) ◽  
pp. 2100-2105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaji Kumar ◽  
Rafael Fonseca ◽  
Rhett P. Ketterling ◽  
Angela Dispenzieri ◽  
Martha Q. Lacy ◽  
...  

Abstract Routine incorporation of FISH into multiple myeloma (MM) diagnostic testing has led to a better appreciation of the heterogeneity of genetic abnormalities associated with this disease. We studied a group of 484 patients with newly diagnosed symptomatic MM to better understand the prevalence of the various abnormalities and the prognostic significance of the overlapping abnormalities. A translocation involving the IgH locus and 1 of the 5 recurrent partner chromosomes was seen in 161 (33%) patients, and 275 (57%) had trisomy of at least 1 odd-numbered chromosome. High-risk FISH, defined as the presence of t(4;14), t(14;16), t(14;20), or loss of P53, was seen in 115 (24%) patients; the median overall survival for this group was 3.9 years, compared with “not reached” for standard-risk patients (P < .001). Among the patients with high-risk FISH, 49 patients who also had at least 1 trisomy had a median overall survival that was not reached, compared with 3 years for high-risk patients without a concurrent trisomy (P = .01). Based on the current findings, we conclude that the presence of trisomies in patients with t(4;14), t(14;16), t(14;20), or p53 deletion abnormalities in MM ameliorates the usual adverse impact associated with these prognostic markers.


1991 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 444-448 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Boccadoro ◽  
F Marmont ◽  
M Tribalto ◽  
G Avvisati ◽  
A Andriani ◽  
...  

The efficacy of alternating vincristine, melphalan (M), cyclophosphamide, prednisone/vincristine, carmustine, doxorubicin, and prednisone (VMCP/VBAP) polychemotherapy was compared with the M and prednisone (MP) regimen as induction treatment in multiple myeloma (MM). Three hundred four MM patients entered this study between March 1983 and July 1986; the analysis was performed in December 1989. The treatment groups did not show significant differences with respect to major prognostic factors. Median overall survival was 33.8 months. In the VMCP/VBAP and MP arms, after 12 induction chemotherapy cycles, 59.0% and 47.3% (P less than .068) of the patients achieved an M component reduction greater than 50%. No significant difference was observed in the two treatment arms in terms of remission duration (21.3 v 19.6 months, P less than .66) and survival (31.6 v 37.0 months, P less than .28). Patients younger than 65 years did not show any advantage from the alternating polychemotherapy. At diagnosis, the plasma cell labeling index (LI) and serum beta-2 microglobulin (beta 2-m) were evaluated in 173 and 183 patients, respectively. A significantly reduced survival was observed for patients with LI greater than or equal to 2% (16.4 months) or beta 2-m greater than or equal to 6 mg/L (20.4 months). Even in these poor-risk subgroups, VMCP/VBAP was not superior to MP.


Blood ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 118 (16) ◽  
pp. 4359-4362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaji K. Kumar ◽  
Hajime Uno ◽  
Susanna J. Jacobus ◽  
Scott A. Van Wier ◽  
Greg J. Ahmann ◽  
...  

Abstract Detection of specific chromosomal abnormalities by FISH and metaphase cytogenetics allows risk stratification in multiple myeloma; however, gene expression profiling (GEP) based signatures may enable more specific risk categorization. We examined the utility of 2 GEP-based risk stratification systems among patients undergoing initial therapy with lenalidomide in the context of a phase 3 trial. Among 45 patients studied at baseline, 7 (16%) and 10 (22%), respectively, were high-risk using the GEP70 and GEP15 signatures. The median overall survival for the GEP70 high-risk group was 19 months versus not reached for the rest (hazard ratio = 14.1). Although the medians were not reached, the GEP15 also predicted a poor outcome among the high-risk patients. The C-statistic for the GEP70, GEP15, and FISH based risk stratification systems was 0.74, 0.7, and 0.7, respectively. Here we demonstrate the prognostic value for GEP risk stratification in a group of patients primarily treated with novel agents. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00098475.


Blood ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 112 (11) ◽  
pp. 95-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prashant Kapoor ◽  
Shaji Kumar ◽  
Rafael Fonseca ◽  
Martha Q. Lacy ◽  
Thomas E Witzig ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Multiple myeloma (MM) is a heterogeneous disease with very divergent outcomes that are dictated in a large part by specific cytogenetic abnormalities, as well as other prognostic factors such as the proliferative rate of marrow plasma cells. Prognostic systems incorporating these factors have shown clinical utility in identifying high-risk patients, and are increasingly being utilized for treatment decision-making. However, the prognostic relevance of these factors may change with the application of novel therapies. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of risk-stratification (incorporating plasma cell metaphase cytogenetics, interphase fluorescent in-situ hybridization (FISH) and the slide-based plasma cell labeling index (PCLI)) in a cohort of patients with newly diagnosed MM treated initially with lenalidomide + dexamethasone (Rev-Dex). Methods: From March 2004 to November 2007, 100 consecutive patients treated with Rev (25mg/day) on days 1 through 21 of a 4-week cycle in combination with dexamethasone as initial therapy for newly diagnosed myeloma, were identified. High-risk MM was defined as presence of any one or more of the following: hypodiploidy, monoallelic loss of chromosome 13 or its long arm (by metaphase cytogenetics only), deletion of p53 (locus 17p13) or PCLI ≥ 3% or immunoglobulin heavy chain (IgH) translocations, t(4;14) (p16.3;q32) or t(14;16)(q32;q23) on FISH. PFS and OS survival estimates were created using the Kaplan Meier method, and compared by log-rank tests. Results: The median estimated follow-up of the entire cohort (N=100) was 36 months. The median PFS was 31 months; the median OS has not been reached. The 2- and 3-year OS estimates were 93% and 83%, respectively. 16% patients were deemed high-risk by at least one of the 3 tests (cytogenetics, FISH or PCLI). Response rates (PR or better) were 81% versus 89% in the high-risk and standard risk groups, respectively, P=NS; corresponding values for CR plus VGPR rates were 38% and 45% respectively. The median PFS was 18.5 months in high-risk patients compared to 37 months in the standard-risk patients (n=84), P<0.001(Figure). Corresponding values for TTP were 18.5 months and 36.5 months, respectively, P=<0.001. OS was not statistically significant between the two groups; 92% 2-year OS was noted in both the groups. Overall, 95 patients had at least one of the 3 tests to determine risk, while 55 patients could be adequately stratified based on the availability of all the 3 tests, or at least one test result that led to their inclusion in the high-risk category. The significant difference in PFS persisted even when the analysis was restricted to the 55 patients classified using this stringent criterion; 18.5 months vs. 36.5 months in the high-risk and standard- risk groups respectively; P<0.001. In a separate analysis, patients who underwent SCT before the disease progression were censored on the date of SCT to negate its effect, and PFS was still inferior in the high-risk group (p=0.002). Conclusion: The TTP and PFS of high-risk MM patients are inferior to that of the standard-risk patients treated with Rev-Dex, indicating that the current genetic and proliferation-based risk-stratification model remains prognostic with novel therapy. However, the TTP, PFS, and OS obtained in high-risk patients treated with Rev-Dex in this study is comparable to overall results in all myeloma patients reported in recent phase III trials. In addition, no significant impact of high-risk features on OS is apparent so far. Longer follow-up is needed to determine the impact of risk stratification on the OS of patients treated with Rev-Dex. Figure Figure


Blood ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 116 (21) ◽  
pp. 170-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dieter Hoelzer ◽  
Andreas Huettmann ◽  
Felix Kaul ◽  
Sebastian Irmer ◽  
Nadja Jaekel ◽  
...  

Abstract Abstract 170 The effect of Rituximab in conjunction with a chemo induction and consolidation therapy was studied in CD20+, Ph/BCR-ABL negative B-precursor ALL (Pre-B/Common) in the GMALL Study 07/2003. The rationale were encouraging results with combined intensive chemotherapy and Rituximab in CD20+ adult Burkitt lymphoma / leukemia. Furthermore that in previous GMALL studies, improvement of B-precursor ALL by intensification of chemotherapy was limited and the observation that patients with CD20+ cells (antigen expression >20%) had an inferior outcome in adult ALL (Thomas et al. Blood 2009. 113;6330). Aim: In standard risk (SR) patients the aim was to increase the rate of molecular remission (Mol. CR) thereby decreasing the relapse rate and in high risk (HR) patients to reduce the pre-transplant tumour-load and thereby reducing the relapse rate after SCT which was 30–40% in previous GMALL studies. Materials and Methods: Adult ALL patients (15 – 55 years) with standard risk B-precursor ALL being CD20 pos. received Rituximab 375 mg/m2 at day -1 before each induction course (phase I and II), the re-induction course and before each of the six consolidations for a total of 8 doses. High Risk patients, defined as WBC > 30.000 and/or late CR > 4 weeks, which are candidates for a stem cell transplantation in CR 1 after wk 16, received Rituximab three times (d -1 ind. I/II and Cons. I) before SCT. Patients receiving Rituximab were compared with earlier CD20+ patients in the GMALL study 07/2003 with identical chemo- and supportive therapy but no Rituximab. MRD method and chemo backbone was described earlier [Brüggemann, Blood 2006: 107;1116]. Results: A total of 263 CD20 pos. patients were analyzed in the GMALL study 07/2003; 196 were SR and 67 HR patients. 181 received Rituximab (R+ arm) and were compared to a cohort of 82 patients earlier recruited without Rituximab (R- arm). In the SR there was no difference in the results of induction therapy with a CR rate of 94 % and 91 % in the R+ vs. R- patients. There was also no difference in ED rate 5% vs. 3% or failure/PR 1% vs. 5%. However, MRD course differed substantially. Decrease in MRD load in the R+ vs. R- arm was faster with a Mol CR (MRD <10-4) rate of 57% vs. 27% at day 24 and of 90% vs. 59% at wk 16. Probability for continuous complete remission (CCR) at 5 years was 80% vs. 47% for R+ vs. R- pts. and for overall survival 71% vs. 57%. In the cohort of 67 HR patients the CR rate for R+ vs. R- was 81% vs. 88% due to a higher rate of failure/PR 12% vs. 8%. The ED rates in the R+ vs. R- arm were 7% vs. 4%. There was a higher Mol CR rate at wk 16 in the R+ arm vs. R- with 64% vs. 40%. Overall survival for HR patients at 5 yrs was 55% vs. 36% in the R+ vs. R- group. When only the HR cohort with SCT in CR1 is considered (in 69 % +R and 90% -R SCT in CR1 were performed) the CCR probability was superior for the R+ vs. R- with 67% vs. 37%, due to a lower relapse rate. Conclusion: Intensive chemo- plus immunotherapy with Rituximab is feasible in adult patients with B-precursor ALL in the context of the GMALL protocol 07/2003. In standard risk patients, the complete remission rate was comparable. There was however a faster and higher Mol. CR rate in the Rituximab cohort, with an improvement in remission duration and overall survival. In high risk patients the Mol. CR rate was also higher in the R+ arm and the relapse rate after SCT lower, but probably more Rituximab doses are needed in this patient cohort to reduce the tumour load before SCT further. Supported by Deutsche Krebshilfe 70–2657-Ho2 and in part by Hoffmann La Roche. Disclosures: Off Label Use: Rituximab: activity against CD20 pos. ALL cells.


Blood ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 128 (22) ◽  
pp. 4784-4784
Author(s):  
Huamao Mark Lin ◽  
Keith L Davis ◽  
James A. Kaye ◽  
Katarina Luptakova ◽  
Lu Gao ◽  
...  

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Multiple Myeloma (MM) is an incurable hematologic cancer characterized by multiple recurrences. With each recurrence, patients have a lower probability of response and duration of response is shorter. Therefore, there is an unmet need to improve outcomes in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM). There is a shortage of data describing clinical features and outcomes in these patients in real-world practice, particularly with regard to differences in outcomes by baseline cytogenetic risk. To help address this information gap, this study analyzed data from a cohort of RRMM patients in France. METHODS: A retrospective observational review of medical records was conducted in a cohort of 200 patients with RRMM in France. Patients were selected (based on randomly generated first letter of last name) from the caseloads of 40 hematology/oncology providers across France practicing mainly in academic hospitals. Inclusion criteria were: ≥18 years of age at initial MM diagnosis; first determined to have RRMM between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2011, where RRMM was defined by (1) first-line (induction) regimen of chemotherapy with or without stem cell transplant (SCT) and with or without other post-induction/SCT therapy and (2) disease progression while on or at any time after completion of first-line therapy. Patients could be alive or deceased at the time of record abstraction. Baseline cytogenetic risk was defined as follows: high-risk: cytogenetic abnormalities del(17p), t(4:14), or t(14;16); unknown/unassessed risk: patients for whom cytogenetics were unavailable; or standard-risk: all patients with known cytogenetics not classified as high-risk. Patients were assessed for treatment response, overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) from date of first relapse (study index date). All analyses were descriptive. Survival was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) method. RESULTS: Demographic and clinical characteristics of the study sample are presented in Table 1. A total of 55 high-risk and 113 standard-risk patients were identified; risk category was unknown or unassessed for 32 patients. Among all patients, mean (SD) age at RRMM diagnosis was 66.3 (8.9) years and 62% of the sample was male. Lenalidomide + dexamethasone was the most common second-line systemic regimen initiated (50% of high-risk patients, 59.5% of standard-risk patients receiving second-line treatment). A total of 114 patients (57%) initiated a third-line treatment. Despite clinical response in second-line treatment occurring sooner in high-risk patients (median: 106 days) than in standard-risk patients (median: 237 days), physician-assessed overall response rate (ORR) was lower in high-risk patients (63%: 17% complete response, 46% partial response) than standard-risk patients (91%: 26% complete response, 65% partial response) across all second-line treatments combined (Table 2).. For third-line treatment, ORR was lower in high-risk patients (54%: 12% complete response, 42% partial response) than standard-risk patients (74%: 9% complete response, 65% partial response). Among patients who initiated a second-line treatment (n = 192), 47.4% were deceased at the time of data collection. From second-line initiation, K-M estimates of 1- to 5-year OS and PFS were substantially lower for high-risk patients versus standard-risk. Specifically, the proportions of patients still alive 1, 3, and 5 years after second-line treatment initiation were 73%, 51%, and 36%, respectively, for high-risk patients and 94%, 73%, and 61% for standard-risk patients. The proportions of patients without disease progression at 1, 3, and 5 years after second-line initiation were 48%, 13.5%, and 5% for high-risk patients and 82%, 42%, and 14% for standard-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: The importance of cytogenetic risk classification as a prognostic factor in RRMM was apparent in this retrospective review, in which patients with high-risk cytogenetics had less favorable outcomes in terms of ORR, OS, and PFS than standard-risk patients. Decreased response rate and lower PFS and OS was documented among patients with high-risk cytogenetics, which is in contrast to shorter time needed to achieve best clinical response in this subgroup. Results from this real-world study provide further confirmation of the unmet medical need presented by RRMM, especially for patients with high-risk cytogenetics. Disclosures Lin: Takeda: Employment. Davis:Takeda: Research Funding. Kaye:Takeda: Research Funding. Luptakova:Takeda Oncology: Employment. Gao:Takeda: Employment. Nagar:Takeda: Research Funding. Seal:Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited: Employment, Equity Ownership.


2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 8591-8591 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Kapoor ◽  
C. Snozek ◽  
C. L. Colby ◽  
D. R. Larson ◽  
J. A. Katzmann ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e20557-e20557
Author(s):  
Eric Leon Tam ◽  
David Joseph Iberri ◽  
Michaela Liedtke ◽  
Lori S. Muffly ◽  
Parveen Shiraz ◽  
...  

e20557 Background: The ideal choice of maintenance therapy in patients with HRMM high-risk multiple myeloma remains unknown. We analyzed the outcomes of patients with HRMM undergoing transplant receiving different maintenance approaches. Methods: Patients with MM undergoing their first ASCT from 2012-19 within 1 year of diagnosis were identified from the prospectively maintained database of patients undergoing ASCT. HRMM was defined as having t(4;14), t(14;16), t(14;20), del17p13, or gain 1q detected on fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH). Results: Of the 412 patients undergoing ASCT within 1 year of diagnosis, 333 had FISH data available and of these, 37% (124/333) patients had high-risk cytogenetics. Distribution of HR cytogenetics was as follows: deletion 17p: 37% (n = 46), t(4;14): 27% (n = 34), t(14;16) or t(14;20): 12% (n = 26), gain1q: 31% (n = 41). 9% (n = 12) had more than one HR abnormality. In patients with HRMM, median age at transplant was 59 years (range: 39 to 73), and 61% (n = 103) were males. 64% (n = 107) of high-risk patients received post-transplant maintenance therapy. Maintenance therapy in this group included a proteasome inhibitor (PI) in 34% (n = 29), immunomodulatory drug (IMiD) in 59% (n = 51), or both in 7% (n = 6). There was no difference in baseline characteristics of HRMM patients receiving PI vs. IMiD maintenance, except that patients with del17p were more likely to receive PI maintenance therapy (55% vs 28%, p = 0.01). (Table) After a median follow-up of 3.1 years from diagnosis, patients with HRMM had inferior PFS compared to patients with standard risk disease, with median PFS of 3 vs. 4.8 years, p < 0.001. Amongst the 86 HRMM patients receiving maintenance therapy, median PFS in patients receiving PI vs. IMiD vs. both PI + IMiD maintenance was 3 vs. 3.2 vs. 2.2 years, respectively, log-rank p = 0.7. In the sub-group of patients with 17p deletion, median PFS in the three groups was 3 vs. 2.9 vs. 2.2 years, respectively, log-rank p = 0.7. Conclusions: Patients with HRMM have inferior PFS compared to patients with standard risk disease. We observed similar outcomes in HRMM patients post-transplant regardless of the choice of maintenance therapy. [Table: see text]


PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e11911
Author(s):  
Lei Liu ◽  
Huayu He ◽  
Yue Peng ◽  
Zhenlin Yang ◽  
Shugeng Gao

Background The prognosis of patients for lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is known to vary widely; the 5-year overall survival rate is just 63% even for the pathological IA stage. Thus, in order to identify high-risk patients and facilitate clinical decision making, it is vital that we identify new prognostic markers that can be used alongside TNM staging to facilitate risk stratification. Methods We used mRNA expression from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) cohort to identify a prognostic gene signature and combined this with clinical data to develop a predictive model for the prognosis of patients for lung adenocarcinoma. Kaplan-Meier curves, Lasso regression, and Cox regression, were used to identify specific prognostic genes. The model was assessed via the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and validated in an independent dataset (GSE50081) from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). Results Our analyses identified a four-gene prognostic signature (CENPH, MYLIP, PITX3, and TRAF3IP3) that was associated with the overall survival of patients with T1-4N0-2M0 in the TCGA dataset. Multivariate regression suggested that the total risk score for the four genes represented an independent prognostic factor for the TCGA and GEO cohorts; the hazard ratio (HR) (high risk group vs low risk group) were 2.34 (p < 0.001) and 2.10 (p = 0.017). Immune infiltration estimations, as determined by an online tool (TIMER2.0) showed that CD4+ T cells were in relative abundance in the high risk group compared to the low risk group in both of the two cohorts (both p < 0.001). We established a composite prognostic model for predicting OS, combined with risk-grouping and clinical factors. The AUCs for 1-, 3-, 5- year OS in the training set were 0.750, 0.737, and 0.719; and were 0.645, 0.766, and 0.725 in the validation set. The calibration curves showed a good match between the predicted probabilities and the actual probabilities. Conclusions We identified a four-gene predictive signature which represents an independent prognostic factor and can be used to identify high-risk patients from different TNM stages of LUAD. A new prognostic model that combines a prognostic gene signature with clinical features exhibited better discriminatory ability for OS than traditional TNM staging.


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