scholarly journals Shock and awe or incentive-compatible harm reduction? Graphic health warnings on tobacco packages

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Irvine ◽  
Hai V. Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Health Warnings ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Incentive Compatible ◽  
The Us ◽  
Reduced Products ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Suitable Treatment ◽  
Alternative Type ◽  
Alternative Approaches ◽  
Statistics Canada

Abstract Background Graphic Health Warnings (GHWs) on cigarette packages were first introduced in Canada in 2001 and will become mandatory in the US as of January 2022. While previous studies have evaluated the impacts of GHWs, the data used in these studies have several shortcomings. The objective of this paper was to investigate the likely impact of such warnings in the US based upon the experience of Canada using hitherto unexplored monthly cigarette sales data, and to explore if alternative approaches involving risk-reduced products might be more successful in reducing smoking. Methods We used quasi-experimental segmented regression and difference-in-differences analyses. Data on monthly sales (i.e., shipments) of cigarettes from Canadian manufacturers to Canadian retailers during 1995–2005 were obtained from Statistics Canada. Results We found that GHWs did not have a significant impact on the sales of cigarettes in Canada. We propose an alternative type of graphical health messaging that actively combines information on how to quit with the legally required messaging. The novelty of the proposal is that it is incentive compatible for the supply side of the market and if adopted in several states, the measure could be tested by using a suitable treatment–control design. Conclusions Our findings imply that we should not expect any notable decline in sales or consumption as a result of implementation of GHWs in the US. The main impact of GHWs will be to add to the anti-smoking culture that has grown steadily over several decades, and this may impact smoking in the longer term.

Effect of Pokémon GO on incidence of fatal traffic injuries: a population-based quasi-experimental study using the national traffic collisions database in Japan

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 448-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sachiko Ono ◽  
Yosuke Ono ◽  
Nobuaki Michihata ◽  
Yusuke Sasabuchi ◽  
Hideo Yasunaga
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Study ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Population Based ◽  
National Data ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Accident Research ◽  
Pokémon Go ◽  
Augmented Reality Game

Pokémon GO (Niantic Labs, released on 22 July 2016 in Japan) is an augmented reality game that gained huge popularity worldwide. Despite concern about Pokémon GO–related traffic collisions, the effect of playing Pokémon GO on the incidence of traffic injuries remains unknown. We performed a population-based quasi-experimental study using national data from the Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis, Japan. The outcome was incidence of traffic injuries. Of 127 082 000 people in Japan, 886 fatal traffic injuries were observed between 1 June and 31 August in 2016. Regression discontinuity analysis showed a non-significant change in incidence of fatal traffic injuries after the Pokémon GO release (0.017 deaths per million, 95%CI −0.036 to 0.071). This finding was similar to that obtained from a difference-in-differences analysis. Effect of Pokémon GO on fatal traffic injuries may be negligible.

Asset recovery in corruption cases

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Leasure
Keyword(s):  
Vice President ◽  
Comparative Case Study ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Case Study Analysis ◽  
Asset Recovery ◽  
The Us ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Republic

Purpose – Asset recovery proceedings increasingly target corrupt foreign officials who acquire lavish assets as a result of capital gained through criminal acts. One extremely difficult issue arising in asset recovery proceedings is whether the capital used to acquire the assets can be traced to a criminal act. The purpose of this paper is to critique US tracing procedure through comparative analysis. Design/methodology/approach – A prominent series of cases brought by the USA and France against assets owned by Teodoro “Teodorín” Nguema Obiang, second Vice President of the Republic of Equatorial Guinea, produced mixed results on the tracing element. This paper utilizes a qualitative comparative case analysis to examine the US and French cases. Findings – The US results reflect serious weaknesses in the US law as compared to more effective French asset recovery procedure. Originality/value – Though this paper is certainly a comparative case study analysis, nearly identical facts and two different jurisdictions reaching separate conclusions bring us in the legal community as close as we can realistically come to quasi-experimental research. Comparative research in this area is severely lacking and sorely needed. The mechanisms identified in the French system clearly show flaws that are present in the US system.

scholarly journals Influence of Warning Statements on Understanding of the Negative Health Consequences of Smoking

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 1805-1815 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica K Pepper ◽  
Anh Nguyen Zarndt ◽  
Matthew E Eggers ◽  
James M Nonnemaker ◽  
David B Portnoy
Keyword(s):  
Cigarette Smoking ◽  
Treatment Condition ◽  
Public Understanding ◽  
Health Warnings ◽  
Health Consequences ◽  
Follow Up Study ◽  
New Information ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Fda

Abstract Introduction Pursuant to the Tobacco Control Act (TCA), the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is developing new cigarette health warnings to convey the negative health consequences of cigarette smoking. Aims and Methods This study assessed which of 15 revised warning statements (10 on topics similar to TCA statements and 5 on other topics) promoted greater understanding of cigarette smoking risks relative to TCA statements. In February 2018, adolescent and adult smokers and adolescents susceptible to smoking (n = 2505) completed an online experiment. Control condition participants viewed TCA statements; treatment condition participants viewed combinations of TCA and revised statements. Analyses compared revised statements to TCA statements on the same health topic or to randomly selected TCA statements if there were no statements on the same topic. Results Relative to TCA statements, 12 of 15 revised statements were more likely to be considered new information, and 12 resulted in more self-reported learning. Three revised statements made participants think more about health risks than TCA statements; the reverse was true for one revised statement. Participants rated most TCA and revised statements as moderately believable and informative. Seven revised statements were found to be less believable and factual, and one revised statement more believable and factual. Treatment condition participants correctly selected more smoking-related health conditions than control condition participants (13.79 versus 12.42 of 25). Conclusions Findings suggest that revised statements can promote greater understanding of cigarette smoking risks. Results informed FDA’s selection of warning text that was paired with images for testing in a follow-up study. Implications The US FDA may adjust the text of the cigarette warning statements provided in the TCA if the revised statements promote greater public understanding of the negative health consequences of cigarette smoking. Most of the revised warning statements tested were more likely to be considered new information and resulted in more self-reported learning compared with paired TCA statements, providing support for using revised statements as part of cigarette health warnings. These results informed the development of pictorial cigarette warnings by FDA that were tested in a follow-up study and included in a proposed rule.

Campaign finance legislation and the supply-side of the revolving door

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Simon Weschle
Keyword(s):  
Campaign Finance ◽  
Campaign Spending ◽  
Revolving Door ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Institutional Factor ◽  
Citizens United ◽  
Us States ◽  
The Us

Abstract Existing research on the revolving door examines why employers hire former politicians. I complement this demand-side approach by demonstrating the importance of the supply-side. In particular, I argue that one important institutional factor that shapes politicians' willingness to leave office for a private sector job is campaign finance legislation. Less restrictive rules increase campaign spending for incumbents, which makes revolving door employment less attractive. Empirically, I use novel data from the US states and a difference-in-differences design to show that the exogenous removal of campaign finance legislation through Citizens United reduced the probability that incumbents left office to work as lobbyists. The supply-side approach provides insights into comparative differences in the prevalence of the revolving door.

Employing a Quasi-Experimental Technique to Measure the Effects of Conditional Admissions

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Zilvinskis ◽  
Victor Borden ◽  
Ronald E. Severtis
Keyword(s):  
Grade Point Average ◽  
Labeling Theory ◽  
Admission Policy ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Grade Point ◽  
Admission Policies ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Conditional Admission ◽  
Additional Support ◽  
Academic Qualifications

Colleges and universities employ conditional admission policies to identify students with subpar academic qualifications, who may need additional support to succeed. Using institutional data of more than 2,000 students, the study applies labeling theory to a quasi-experimental design (difference-in-differences testing), measuring the effects of a new conditional admission policy. The policy did not affect grade point average, number of credits attempted, or persistence for students with lower academic credentials but yielded a 16% decrease in credits completed. The results of this study question the value of policies that label students as conditional admits without providing comprehensive support for those students.

Designs of Empirical Evaluations of Nonexperimental Methods in Field Settings

2018 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 176-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivian C. Wong ◽  
Peter M. Steiner
Keyword(s):  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Randomized Experiment ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Threats To Validity ◽  
Series Design ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Design

Over the last three decades, a research design has emerged to evaluate the performance of nonexperimental (NE) designs and design features in field settings. It is called the within-study comparison (WSC) approach or the design replication study. In the traditional WSC design, treatment effects from a randomized experiment are compared to those produced by an NE approach that shares the same target population. The nonexperiment may be a quasi-experimental design, such as a regression-discontinuity or an interrupted time-series design, or an observational study approach that includes matching methods, standard regression adjustments, and difference-in-differences methods. The goals of the WSC are to determine whether the nonexperiment can replicate results from a randomized experiment (which provides the causal benchmark estimate), and the contexts and conditions under which these methods work in practice. This article presents a coherent theory of the design and implementation of WSCs for evaluating NE methods. It introduces and identifies the multiple purposes of WSCs, required design components, common threats to validity, design variants, and causal estimands of interest in WSCs. It highlights two general approaches for empirical evaluations of methods in field settings, WSC designs with independent and dependent benchmark and NE arms. This article highlights advantages and disadvantages for each approach, and conditions and contexts under which each approach is optimal for addressing methodological questions.

Estimating the Effects of Police Technology Using Quasi-Experimental Methods

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 360-368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jillian B. Carr
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Public Safety ◽  
License Plate ◽  
Law Enforcement Agencies ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
The Public ◽  
Fast Pace ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Police Technology ◽  
License Plate Readers

Law enforcement agencies are adopting a variety of new surveillance technologies at a fast pace. These technologies could have substantial benefits in terms of public safety, but, for many of them, their ability to reduce crime is unknown. Although a small experimental literature addresses some of these technologies, many of the implementations have been too small to provide an accurate measurement of their potential. In this paper, I explore the advantages and make general suggestions about the use of quasi-experimental methodologies in estimating the public safety benefits of police technology. I also consider the specific case of license plate readers and provide some examples of difference-in-differences approaches that could be used to study their efficacy.

scholarly journals GDP-B: Accounting for the Value of New and Free Goods in the Digital Economy

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Brynjolfsson ◽  
Avinash Collis ◽  
W. Erwin Diewert ◽  
Felix Eggers ◽  
Kevin J. Fox
Keyword(s):  
Choice Experiments ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Welfare Gains ◽  
Incentive Compatible ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Us

The welfare contributions of the digital economy, characterized by the proliferation of new and free goods, are not well-measured in our current national accounts. We derive explicit terms for the welfare contributions of these goods and introduce a new metric, GDP-B which quantifies their benefits, rather than costs. We apply this framework to several empirical examples including Facebook and smartphone cameras and estimate their valuations through incentive-compatible choice experiments. For example, including the welfare gains from Facebook would have added between 0.05 and 0.11 percentage points to GDP-B growth per year in the US.

scholarly journals Estimated Prevalence of Smoking and Smoking-Attributable Mortality Associated With Graphic Health Warnings on Cigarette Packages in the US From 2022 to 2100

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (9) ◽  
pp. e212852
Author(s):  
Jamie Tam ◽  
Jihyoun Jeon ◽  
James F. Thrasher ◽  
David Hammond ◽  
Theodore R. Holford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Health Warnings ◽  
The Us

scholarly journals Optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic with non-pharmaceutical interventions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Perkins ◽  
Guido Espana
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Control Analysis ◽  
Optimal Controls ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Hospital Capacity ◽  
The Us ◽  
Alternative Approaches ◽  
High Level ◽  
Reduced Time

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced societies across the world to resort to social distancing to slow the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Due to the economic impacts of social distancing, there is growing desire to relax these measures. To characterize a range of possible strategies for control and to understand their consequences, we performed an optimal control analysis of a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Given that the pandemic is already underway and controls have already been initiated, we calibrated our model to data from the US and focused our analysis on optimal controls from May 2020 through December 2021. We found that a major factor that differentiates strategies that prioritize lives saved versus reduced time under control is how quickly control is relaxed once social distancing restrictions expire in May 2020. Strategies that maintain control at a high level until summer 2020 allow for tapering of control thereafter and minimal deaths, whereas strategies that relax control in the short term lead to fewer options for control later and a higher likelihood of exceeding hospital capacity. Our results also highlight that the potential scope for controlling COVID-19 until a vaccine is available depends on epidemiological parameters about which there is still considerable uncertainty, including the basic reproduction number and the effectiveness of social distancing. In light of those uncertainties, our results do not constitute a quantitative forecast and instead provide a qualitative portrayal of possible outcomes from alternative approaches to control.

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