Transmission frequency of COVID-19 through pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic patients in AJK: a report of 201 cases

Abstract Background: Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, declared as “once-in-a-century” pandemic, has affected about entire human population. Till now, the most promising control strategy is to block the transmission which will never be effective without completely knowing the transmission patterns.Methods: This was a retrospective case to case study aiming to estimate and calculate the transmission rate of COVID-19 through pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. Contact history of included positive cases during the period of 24 hours before appearance of symptoms and infection confirmation for symptomatic and asymptomatic cases respectively was traced for disease transmission. Results: Overall, a total of 201 cases had contacted with 7168 people in last 24 hours with an average of 35.66 contacts per patient ranging from a minimum of 4 to maximum of 87 contacts (Meetings). Out of 7168 meeting persons, the infection was traced in 64 (0.89%) persons. For 155 symptomatic patients, a total of 5611 contacting persons were traced before appearance of symptoms (pre-symptomatic) in last 24 hours with an average of 36.20 meetings per patient. The infection was transmitted in 63 (1.12%) people and remaining 5548 (98.88%) were remained uninfected. Out of the 63 transmissions, 62 (98.4%) were traced within last 6 hours before the onset of symptoms while only 1 was traced from 6-12 hours before symptoms. A total of 1557 persons were traced having meeting/contacts with asymptomatic cases in last 24 hours before their infection confirmation. Out of these 1557 persons, only 1 was found to be infected and the infection rate was calculated to be 0.06%. Conclusion: The study concludes that the risk of pre-symptomatic transmission of infection is low (1.12%) and it becomes very rare in contacts made longer than 6 hours before onset of symptoms. The infection transmission is traced as long as about 9 hours before the appearance of clear symptoms in the patients but the incidence was as low as about 0.02% of the total contacts in that period. Transmission frequency by asymptomatic patients is also rare (0.06%) in the studied population.

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Transmission frequency of COVID-19 through pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic patients in AJK: A report of 201 cases

10.21203/rs.3.rs-152710/v3 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Majid Mahmood ◽

Noor-ul-ain Ilyas ◽

Muhammad Faraz Khan ◽

Muhammad Naseem Hasrat

Keyword(s):

Disease Transmission ◽

Human Population ◽

Virus Disease ◽

Transmission Rate ◽

Retrospective Case ◽

Transmission Frequency ◽

Infection Transmission ◽

Asymptomatic Patients ◽

History Of

Abstract Background: Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, declared as “once-in-a-century” pandemic, has affected about entire human population. Till now, the most promising control strategy is to block the transmission which will never be effective without completely knowing the transmission patterns.Methods: This was a retrospective case to case study aiming to estimate and calculate the transmission rate of COVID-19 through pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. Contact history of included positive cases during the period of 24 hours before appearance of symptoms and infection confirmation for symptomatic and asymptomatic cases respectively was traced for disease transmission. Results: Overall, a total of 201 cases had contacted with 7168 people in last 24 hours with an average of 35.66 contacts per patient ranging from a minimum of 4 to maximum of 87 contacts (Meetings). Out of 7168 meeting persons, the infection was traced in 64 (0.89%) persons. For 155 symptomatic patients, a total of 5611 contacting persons were traced before appearance of symptoms (pre-symptomatic) in last 24 hours with an average of 36.20 meetings per patient. The infection was transmitted in 63 (1.12%) people and remaining 5548 (98.88%) were remained uninfected. Out of the 63 transmissions, 62 (98.4%) were traced within last 6 hours before the onset of symptoms while only 1 was traced from 6-12 hours before symptoms. A total of 1557 persons were traced having meeting/contacts with asymptomatic cases in last 24 hours before their infection confirmation. Out of these 1557 persons, only 1 was found to be infected and the infection rate was calculated to be 0.06%. Conclusion: The study concludes that the risk of pre-symptomatic transmission of infection is low (1.12%) and it becomes very rare in contacts made longer than 6 hours before onset of symptoms. The infection transmission is traced as long as about 9 hours before the appearance of clear symptoms in the patients but the incidence was as low as about 0.02% of the total contacts in that period. Transmission frequency by asymptomatic patients is also rare (0.06%) in the studied population.

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Transmission frequency of covid-19 through pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic patients in AJK: A report of 201 cases

10.21203/rs.3.rs-198847/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Majid Mahmood ◽

Noor-ul-ain Ilyas ◽

Muhammad Faraz Khan ◽

Muhammad Naseem Hasrat

Keyword(s):

Disease Transmission ◽

Human Population ◽

Virus Disease ◽

Transmission Rate ◽

Retrospective Case ◽

Transmission Frequency ◽

Infection Transmission ◽

Asymptomatic Patients ◽

History Of

Abstract Background: Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, declared as “once-in-a-century” pandemic, has affected about entire human population. Till now, the most promising control strategy is to block the transmission which will never be effective without completely knowing the transmission patterns.Methods: This was a retrospective case to case study aiming to estimate and calculate the transmission rate of COVID-19 through pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. Contact history of included positive cases during the period of 24 hours before appearance of symptoms and infection confirmation for symptomatic and asymptomatic cases respectively was traced for disease transmission. Results: Overall, a total of 201 cases had contacted with 7168 people in last 24 hours with an average of 35.66 contacts per patient ranging from a minimum of 4 to maximum of 87 contacts (Meetings). Out of 7168 meeting persons, the infection was traced in 64 (0.89%) persons. For 155 symptomatic patients, a total of 5611 contacting persons were traced before appearance of symptoms (pre-symptomatic) in last 24 hours with an average of 36.20 meetings per patient. The infection was transmitted in 63 (1.12%) people and remaining 5548 (98.88%) were remained uninfected. Out of the 63 transmissions, 62 (98.4%) were traced within last 6 hours before the onset of symptoms while only 1 was traced from 6-12 hours before symptoms. A total of 1557 persons were traced having meeting/contacts with asymptomatic cases in last 24 hours before their infection confirmation. Out of these 1557 persons, only 1 was found to be infected and the infection rate was calculated to be 0.06%. Conclusion: The study concludes that the risk of pre-symptomatic transmission of infection is low (1.12%) and it becomes very rare in contacts made longer than 6 hours before onset of symptoms. The infection transmission is traced as long as about 9 hours before the appearance of clear symptoms in the patients but the incidence was as low as about 0.02% of the total contacts in that period. Transmission frequency by asymptomatic patients is also rare (0.06%) in the studied population.

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Transmission frequency of covid-19 through pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic patients in AJK: A report of 201 cases

10.21203/rs.3.rs-152710/v2 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Majid Mahmood ◽

Noor-ul-ain Ilyas ◽

Muhammad Faraz Khan ◽

Muhammad Naseem Hasrat

Keyword(s):

Disease Transmission ◽

Human Population ◽

Virus Disease ◽

Transmission Rate ◽

Retrospective Case ◽

Transmission Frequency ◽

Infection Transmission ◽

Asymptomatic Patients ◽

History Of

Abstract Background: Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, declared as “once-in-a-century” pandemic, has affected about entire human population. Till now, the most promising control strategy is to block the transmission which will never be effective without completely knowing the transmission patterns.Methods: This was a retrospective case to case study aiming to estimate and calculate the transmission rate of COVID-19 through pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. Contact history of included positive cases during the period of 24 hours before appearance of symptoms and infection confirmation for symptomatic and asymptomatic cases respectively was traced for disease transmission. Results: Overall, a total of 201 cases had contacted with 7168 people in last 24 hours with an average of 35.66 contacts per patient ranging from a minimum of 4 to maximum of 87 contacts (Meetings). Out of 7168 meeting persons, the infection was traced in 64 (0.89%) persons. For 155 symptomatic patients, a total of 5611 contacting persons were traced before appearance of symptoms (pre-symptomatic) in last 24 hours with an average of 36.20 meetings per patient. The infection was transmitted in 63 (1.12%) people and remaining 5548 (98.88%) were remained uninfected. Out of the 63 transmissions, 62 (98.4%) were traced within last 6 hours before the onset of symptoms while only 1 was traced from 6-12 hours before symptoms. A total of 1557 persons were traced having meeting/contacts with asymptomatic cases in last 24 hours before their infection confirmation. Out of these 1557 persons, only 1 was found to be infected and the infection rate was calculated to be 0.06%. Conclusion: The study concludes that the risk of pre-symptomatic transmission of infection is low (1.12%) and it becomes very rare in contacts made longer than 6 hours before onset of symptoms. The infection transmission is traced as long as about 9 hours before the appearance of clear symptoms in the patients but the incidence was as low as about 0.02% of the total contacts in that period. Transmission frequency by asymptomatic patients is also rare (0.06%) in the studied population.

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History of the Military Nurse Corps and the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Lessons for the 2019 Coronavirus Pandemic

Military Medicine ◽

10.1093/milmed/usaa544 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Laura A Talbot ◽

E Jeffrey Metter ◽

Heather King

Keyword(s):

World War I ◽

Patient Outcomes ◽

Influenza Pandemic ◽

Treatment Options ◽

Primary Therapy ◽

World War ◽

Military Nursing ◽

History Of ◽

1918 Influenza ◽

The Military

ABSTRACT During World War I, the 1918 influenza pandemic struck the fatigued combat troops serving on the Western Front. Medical treatment options were limited; thus, skilled military nursing care was the primary therapy and the best indicator of patient outcomes. This article examines the military nursing’s role in the care of the soldiers during the 1918 flu pandemic and compares this to the 2019 coronavirus pandemic.

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Schools as Vectors of Infectious Disease Transmission during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic

Cartographica The International Journal for Geographic Information and Geovisualization ◽

10.3138/cart-2020-0025 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. e20200025

Author(s):

Don Lafreniere ◽

Timothy Stone ◽

Rose Hildebrandt ◽

Richard C. Sadler ◽

Michael Madison ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Disease Transmission ◽

Influenza Pandemic ◽

Infectious Disease Transmission ◽

1918 Influenza

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COVID-19 in Newborns and Infants—Low Risk of Severe Disease: Silver Lining or Dark Cloud?

American Journal of Perinatology ◽

10.1055/s-0040-1710512 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 37 (08) ◽

pp. 845-849 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Munmun Rawat ◽

Praveen Chandrasekharan ◽

Mark D. Hicar ◽

Satyan Lakshminrusimha

Keyword(s):

Influenza Pandemic ◽

Severe Disease ◽

The United States ◽

Dark Cloud ◽

Symptomatic Infection ◽

Key Points ◽

High Incidence ◽

1918 Influenza ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Low Prevalence

One hundred years after the 1918 influenza pandemic, we now face another pandemic with the severe acute respiratory syndrome–novel coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). There is considerable variability in the incidence of infection and severe disease following exposure to SARS-CoV-2. Data from China and the United States suggest a low prevalence of neonates, infants, and children, with those affected not suffering from severe disease. In this article, we speculate different theories why this novel agent is sparing neonates, infants, and young children. The low severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection in this population is associated with a high incidence of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic infection making them efficient carriers. Key Points

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Long-Term Prognosis of Febrile Individuals with Right Precordial Coved-Type ST-Segment Elevation Brugada Pattern: A 10-Year Prospective Follow-Up Study

Journal of Clinical Medicine ◽

10.3390/jcm10214997 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (21) ◽

pp. 4997

Author(s):

Chin-Feng Tsai ◽

Yao-Tsung Chuang ◽

Jing-Yang Huang ◽

Kwo-Chang Ueng

Keyword(s):

Family History ◽

Sudden Death ◽

Previous History ◽

Asymptomatic Patients ◽

Arrhythmic Event ◽

History Of ◽

Asymptomatic Individuals

A febrile state may provoke a Brugada electrocardiogram (ECG) pattern and trigger ventricular tachyarrhythmias in susceptible individuals. However, the prognostic value of fever-induced Brugada ECG pattern remains unclear. We analyzed the clinical and extended long-term follow-up data of consecutive febrile patients with a type 1 Brugada ECG presented to the emergency department. A total of 21 individuals (18 males; mean age, 43.7 ± 18.6 years at diagnosis) were divided into symptomatic (resuscitated cardiac arrest in one, syncope in two) and asymptomatic (18, 86%) groups. Sustained polymorphic ventricular tachycardias were inducible in two patients with previous syncope. All 18 asymptomatic patients had no spontaneous type 1 Brugada ECG recorded at second intercostal space and no family history of sudden death. Among asymptomatic individuals, 4 had a total 12 of repeated non-arrhythmogenic febrile episodes all with recurrent type 1 Brugada ECGs, and none had a ventricular arrhythmic event during 116 ± 19 months of follow-up. In the symptomatic group, two had defibrillator shocks for a new arrhythmic event at 31- and 49 months follow-up, respectively, and one without defibrillator therapy died suddenly at 8 months follow-up. A previous history of aborted sudden death or syncope was significantly associated with adverse outcomes in symptomatic compared with asymptomatic individuals (log-rank p < 0.0001). In conclusion, clinical presentation or history of syncope is the most important parameter in the risk stratification of febrile patients with type 1 Brugada ECG. Asymptomatic individuals with a negative family history of sudden death and without spontaneous type 1 Brugada ECG, have an exceptionally low future risk of arrhythmic events. Careful follow-up with timely and aggressive control of fever is an appropriate management option.

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News from the front: Estimation of excess mortality and life expectancy in the major epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

10.1101/2020.04.29.20084335 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Simone Ghislandi ◽

Raya Muttarak ◽

Markus Sauerberg ◽

Benedetta Scotti

Keyword(s):

Life Expectancy ◽

Excess Mortality ◽

Human Life ◽

Influenza Pandemic ◽

National Level ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Substantial Impact ◽

Lombardy Region ◽

1918 Influenza ◽

The Impact

AbstractExisting studies on the mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic commonly rely on national official reports. However, in a pandemic, deaths from COVID-19 can be miscounted due to under-reporting and inaccurate death registration. Official statistics on COVID-19 mortality are sensitive to classification, estimation and reporting practice which are not consistent across countries. Likewise, the reported mortality is often provided at the national level which results in underestimation of the true scale of the human life impact given that the outbreaks are localised.This study overcomes the problem of under-reporting of COVID-19-related deaths by using all cause daily death registrations data provided by the Italian Statistical Office (ISTAT) from January 1 to April 30, 2020 in comparison with official figures reported by the Civil Protection Department. The study focuses on the five most severely hit provinces in Italy (Bergamo, Brescia, Cremona, Lodi and Piacenza) and Lombardy region. We calculate excess mortality in 2020 compared to the average of the years 2015 to 2019 and estimate life expectancy for the first wave of the epidemic and for the rest of the year 2020. Not only is life expectancy a reliable measure of a country’s health status and development, it also allows us to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on human life.The estimated excess deaths show significantly higher mortality than COVID-19 official mortality statistics, particularly during the peak of the epidemic and amongst people aged 60 years and over. We find that for the first wave of the epidemic, life expectancy in the five provinces reduced by 5.1 to 7.8 and 3.2 to 5.8 years for men and women, respectively. For annual life expectancy for the year 2020, in a scenario with no harvesting effect i.e. mortality rates resume to an average level of the years 2015-2019 after the end of the first epidemic wave, the years of life lost is equivalent to 2 to 3.5 years for men and 1.1. to 2.5 years for women in the five provinces.The COVID-19 pandemic posed a substantial impact on population health in Italy as it represents the largest decline in life expectancy after the 1918 influenza pandemic and the Second World War.

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Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.0610941104 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 104 (18) ◽

pp. 7582-7587 ◽

Cited By ~ 287

Author(s):

Richard J. Hatchett ◽

Carter E. Mecher ◽

Marc Lipsitch

Keyword(s):

Disease Transmission ◽

Early Phase ◽

Influenza Pandemic ◽

Death Rates ◽

Viral Spread ◽

Early Implementation ◽

The Difference ◽

1918 Influenza ◽

The Impact ◽

Multiple Interventions

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) intended to reduce infectious contacts between persons form an integral part of plans to mitigate the impact of the next influenza pandemic. Although the potential benefits of NPIs are supported by mathematical models, the historical evidence for the impact of such interventions in past pandemics has not been systematically examined. We obtained data on the timing of 19 classes of NPI in 17 U.S. cities during the 1918 pandemic and tested the hypothesis that early implementation of multiple interventions was associated with reduced disease transmission. Consistent with this hypothesis, cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic had peak death rates ≈50% lower than those that did not and had less-steep epidemic curves. Cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic also showed a trend toward lower cumulative excess mortality, but the difference was smaller (≈20%) and less statistically significant than that for peak death rates. This finding was not unexpected, given that few cities maintained NPIs longer than 6 weeks in 1918. Early implementation of certain interventions, including closure of schools, churches, and theaters, was associated with lower peak death rates, but no single intervention showed an association with improved aggregate outcomes for the 1918 phase of the pandemic. These findings support the hypothesis that rapid implementation of multiple NPIs can significantly reduce influenza transmission, but that viral spread will be renewed upon relaxation of such measures.

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