scholarly journals International trade barriers and regional employment: the case of a no-deal Brexit

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch ◽  
Oliver Holtemöller
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
National Level ◽  
Global Value Chains ◽  
Trade Costs ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Regional Employment ◽  
Employment Effects ◽  
The Eu

AbstractWe use the World Input–Output Database (WIOD) combined with regional sectoral employment data to estimate the potential regional employment effects of international trade barriers. We study the case of a no-deal Brexit in which imports to the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) would be subject to tariffs and non-tariff trade costs. First, we derive the decline in UK final goods imports from the EU from industry-specific international trade elasticities, tariffs and non-tariff trade costs. Using input–output analysis, we estimate the potential output and employment effects for 56 industries and 43 countries on the national level. The absolute effects would be largest in big EU countries which have close trade relationships with the UK, such as Germany and France. However, there would also be large countries outside the EU which would be heavily affected via global value chains, such as China, for example. The relative effects (in percent of total employment) would be largest in Ireland followed by Belgium. In a second step, we split up the national effects on the NUTS-2 level for EU member states and additionally on the county (NUTS-3) level for Germany. The share of affected workers varies between 0.03% and 3.4% among European NUTS-2 regions and between 0.15% and 0.4% among German counties. A general result is that indirect effects via global value chains, i.e., trade in intermediate inputs, are more important than direct effects via final demand.

ON THE RELEVANCE OF GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS AND THE INTRA-EUROPEAN DIVISION OF LABOUR

2020 ◽  
Vol 252 ◽  
pp. R4-R18
Author(s):  
Manuel Fritsch ◽  
Jürgen Matthes
Keyword(s):  
Member State ◽  
Global Value Chains ◽  
Division Of Labour ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Employment Effects ◽  
The Eu

This article first introduces the concept, the rationale, the causes and the genesis of global value chains from a worldwide perspective in the form of a brief overview. In the second empirical section, a closer look is taken at the intermediate trade integration in the EU. In particular, the employment effects of the intermediate trade connections for each EU member state and for selected sectors are highlighted. In the concluding section, it is explained why global value chains are particularly susceptible to rising protectionism. Moreover, tentative implications of the current coronavirus pandemic are pointed out.

PRODUCTION SHARING, DEMAND SPILLOVERS AND CO2 EMISSIONS: THE CASE OF CHINESE REGIONS IN GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (02) ◽  
pp. 275-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
JIANSUO PEI ◽  
BO MENG ◽  
FEI WANG ◽  
JINJUN XUE ◽  
ZHONGXIU ZHAO
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Global Value Chains ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Input Output ◽  
National Academy Of Sciences ◽  
Trade Patterns ◽  
Production Sharing ◽  
Production Pattern

Recent trade literature highlights production sharing among economies [Johnson, R and G Noguera (2012). Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added. Journal of International Economics, 86(2), 224–236), and some studies report that 20–25% of CO2 emissions can be attributed to international trade [Peters, G, J Minx, C Weber and O Edenhofer (2011). Growth in emission transfers via international trade from 1990 to 2008. Proceedings the National Academy of Sciences USA, 108(21), 8903–8908.]. However, the mechanism explaining how and to what extent production sharing affects CO2 emissions remains unclear. This study, as an extension of [Meng, B, J Xue, K Feng, D Guan and X Fu (2013a). China’s interregional spillover of carbon emissions and domestic supply chains. Energy Policy, 61, 1305–1321.], adopts the perspective of demand spillovers to provide new insights regarding the position of Chinese domestic-regions’ production in Global Value Chains (GVCs) and their associated CO2 emissions. To this end, we employed a new type of World Input-Output Database (WIOD) in which China’s domestic interregional input–output table for 2007 is endogenously embedded. The pattern of China’s regional demand spillovers across both domestic regions and countries is revealed by employing this new database. These results were then connected to endowments theory, which helps to make sense of the empirical results. It is found that China’s regions are located relatively upstream in GVCs, and had CO2 emissions in net exports, which were entirely predicted by the environmental extended Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek (HOV) model. Our study points to micro policy instruments to combat climate change: for example, tax reform for energy inputs that helps to change the production pattern, which then has an impact on trade patterns and so forth.

scholarly journals On the Geography of Global Value Chains

Econometrica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 88 (4) ◽  
pp. 1553-1598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pol Antràs ◽  
Alonso Gortari
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Marginal Cost ◽  
Global Value Chains ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Optimal Location ◽  
Trade Costs ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Multi Stage

This paper develops a multi‐stage general‐equilibrium model of global value chains (GVCs) and studies the specialization of countries within GVCs in a world with barriers to international trade. With costly trade, the optimal location of production of a given stage in a GVC is not only a function of the marginal cost at which that stage can be produced in a given country, but is also shaped by the proximity of that location to the precedent and the subsequent desired locations of production. We show that, other things equal, it is optimal to locate relatively downstream stages of production in relatively central locations. We also develop and estimate a tractable, quantifiable version of our model that illustrates how changes in trade costs affect the extent to which various countries participate in domestic, regional, or global value chains, and traces the real income consequences of these changes.

scholarly journals VALUE CHAINS AND DOMESTIC COMPETITIVENESS

2020 ◽  
Vol 252 ◽  
pp. R45-R51
Author(s):  
Michael Gasiorek ◽  
Alasdair Smith ◽  
Nicolo Tamberi
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Costs ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Domestic Output ◽  
Export Competitiveness ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

With international trade increasingly undertaken within vertically fragmented supply chains, this paper considers the impact of changes in trade costs on domestic output. In the context of the UK’s exit from the EU we show that the negative impact on UK output will depend on changes in both domestic and export competitiveness. Since for many firms the majority of their sales are to the domestic market, the domestic competitiveness impact may be quantitatively more important. The impact on output will be more significant the greater the integration of firms in international supply chains, and the greater the asymmetric impact of leaving the EU on UK firms relative to EU firms.

International trade: Research of the reasons for the fall

2019 ◽  
pp. 79-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. S. Nazarov ◽  
S. S. Lazaryan ◽  
I. V. Nikonov ◽  
A. I. Votinov
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Global Value Chains ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Negative Contribution ◽  
Basic Commodity ◽  
The Impact

The article assesses the impact of various factors on the growth rate of international trade. Many experts interpreted the cross-border flows of goods decline against the backdrop of a growing global economy as an alarming sign that indicates a slowdown in the processes of globalization. To determine the reasons for the dynamics of international trade, the decompositions of its growth rate were carried out and allowed to single out the effect of the dollar exchange rate, the commodities prices and global value chains on the change in the volume of trade. As a result, it was discovered that the most part of the dynamics of international trade is due to fluctuations in the exchange rate of the dollar and prices for basic commodity groups. The negative contribution of trade within global value chains in 2014 was also revealed. During the investigated period (2000—2014), such a picture was observed only in the crisis periods, which may indicate the beginning of structural changes in the world trade.

scholarly journals Low-carbon development via greening global value chains: a case study of Belarus

2020 ◽  
Vol 476 (2239) ◽  
pp. 20200024
Author(s):  
Huiqing Wang ◽  
Yixin Hu ◽  
Heran Zheng ◽  
Yuli Shan ◽  
Song Qing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Global Value Chains ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Energy Structure ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Low Carbon Development ◽  
Plastic Products

The rise of global value chains (GCVs) has seen the transfer of carbon emissions embodied in every step of international trade. Building a coordinated, inclusive and green GCV can be an effective and efficient way to achieve carbon emissions mitigation targets for countries that participate highly in GCVs. In this paper, we first describe the energy consumption as well as the territorial and consumption-based carbon emissions of Belarus and its regions from 2010 to 2017. The results show that Belarus has a relatively clean energy structure with 75% of Belarus' energy consumption coming from imported natural gas. The ‘chemical, rubber and plastic products' sector has expanded significantly over the past few years; its territorial-based emissions increased 10-fold from 2011 to 2014, with the ‘food processing' sector displaying the largest increase in consumption-based emissions. An analysis of regional emissions accounts shows that there is significant regional heterogeneity in Belarus with Mogilev, Gomel and Vitebsk having more energy-intensive manufacturing industries. We then analysed the changes in Belarus' international trade as well as its emission impacts. The results show that Belarus has changed from a net carbon exporter in 2011 to a net carbon importer in 2014. Countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, such as Russia, China, Ukraine, Poland and Kazakhstan, are the main trading partners and carbon emission importers/exporters for Belarus. ‘Construction’ and ‘chemical, rubber and plastic products' are two major emission-importing sectors in Belarus, while ‘electricity' and ‘ferrous metals' are the primary emission-exporting sectors. Possible low-carbon development pathways are discussed for Belarus through the perspectives of global supply and the value chain.

scholarly journals The similarity of global value chains: A network-based measure

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 607-632 ◽  
Author(s):  
ZHEN ZHU ◽  
GREG MORRISON ◽  
MICHELANGELO PULIGA ◽  
ALESSANDRO CHESSA ◽  
MASSIMO RICCABONI
Keyword(s):  
Global Value Chains ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Input Output ◽  
The World ◽  
Average Similarity ◽  
Node Similarity ◽  
Node Attributes ◽  
Measure Of Similarity ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Over Time

AbstractInternational trade has been increasingly organized in the form of global value chains (GVCs). In this paper, we provide a new method for comparing GVCs across countries and over time. First, we use the World Input–Output Database (WIOD) to construct both the upstream and the downstream global value networks. Second, we introduce a network-based measure of node similarity to compare the GVCs between any pair of countries for each sector and each year available in the WIOD. Our network-based similarity is a better measure for node comparison than the existing ones because it takes into account all the direct and indirect relationships between the country–sector pairs, is applicable to both directed and weighted networks with self-loops, and takes into account externally defined node attributes. As a result, our measure of similarity reveals the most intensive interactions among the GVCs across countries and over time. From 1995 to 2011, the average similarity between sectors and countries have clear increasing trends, which are temporarily interrupted by the recent economic crisis. This measure of the similarity of GVCs provides quantitative answers to important questions about dependency, sustainability, risk, and competition in the global production system.

scholarly journals CORONAVIRUS BIAS OF THE MODERN WORLD ECONOMY : SCALES , RISKS, CONSEQUENCES

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-17
Author(s):  
E. N. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Economic ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Global Value Chains ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Economic Relations

The objective of our article is to analyze the risks of a new coronavirus pandemic with impact on the dynamics of the modern world economy, as well as to assess the corresponding consequences and risks that will lead to the formation of a new model for organizing interactions in international trade, foreign direct investment and a revision of the determinants of global economic growth. The nature of the impact of the current pandemic on the existing system of international economic relations, in contrast to the previous global crises, is unprecedentedly tough, which has led to a number of contradictions in the development of global value chains, international trade flows, and  the  transformation  of  external  financing  conditions.  The  author  believes  that  the  most important  challenge  of  the  pandemic  is  not  only  the  recovery  of  the  economy  and  economic activity, maintaining the growth rate of labor productivity, but also in preventing the growth of inequality, in shaping the ability to manage global risks and imbalances. The trends towards the localization of international trade and the repatriation of global  value chains act as a risk of a significant slowdown in international exchange, which contradicts the canons and strategies for the development of foreign economic relations  of those countries  that ensured their economic growth by expanding participation in international trade and attracting foreign direct investment. According to the author, a new wave of international economic cooperation between countries can bring a new impetus to the development of international trade, capital movement and the dynamics of economic mobility.

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