Assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change based on climate exposure, vegetation stability and productivity

The increase in asthma incidence, prevalence, and morbidity over recent decades presents a significant challenge to public health. Pollen is an important trigger of some types of asthma, and both pollen quantity and season depend on climatic and meteorological variables. Over the same period as the global rise in asthma, there have been considerable increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and global average surface temperature. We hypothesize anthropogenic climate change as a plausible contributor to the rise in asthma. Greater concentrations of carbon dioxide and higher temperatures may increase pollen quantity and induce longer pollen seasons. Pollen allergenicity can also increase as a result of these changes in climate. Exposure in early life to a more allergenic environment may also provoke the development of other atopic conditions, such as eczema and allergic rhinitis. Although the etiology of asthma is complex, the recent global rise in asthma could be an early health effect of anthropogenic climate change.

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Livelihood vulnerability and climate change: a comparative analysis of smallholders in the Indo-Gangetic plains

Environment Development and Sustainability ◽

10.1007/s10668-021-01516-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Terese E. Venus ◽

Stephanie Bilgram ◽

Johannes Sauer ◽

Arun Khatri-Chettri

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Adaptive Capacity ◽

Information And Communication Technologies ◽

Alternative Energy ◽

Conservation Agriculture ◽

Vulnerability Index ◽

Weather Data ◽

Gangetic Plains ◽

Alternative Energy Sources ◽

Climate Exposure

AbstractIn the Indo-Gangetic Plains, one of India’s most productive agricultural regions, smallholder livelihood vulnerability can inhibit sustainable development. As there are significant differences in economic development, natural resources and agricultural productivity within the region, we estimate the Livelihood Vulnerability Index in two districts (Vaishali, Bihar and Karnal, Haryana) to determine suitable adaptation strategies under diverse conditions. To reflect different aspects of climate exposure, we include both self-reported climate shocks and spatially interpolated weather data. The assessment of 1127 households shows that while both districts have similar exposure and adaptive capacity levels, the sensitivity dimension makes Vaishali more vulnerable to climate change. To reduce sensitivity, decision-makers should focus on improving infrastructure (e.g., permanent housing, latrines, health centers, alternative energy sources). To improve adaptive capacity and reduce climate risk in both regions, policymakers should promote the expansion of extension training for livelihood diversification, information and communication technologies as well as conservation agriculture.

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A Method for the Definition of Local Vulnerability Domains to Climate Change and Relate Mapping. Two Case Studies in Southern Italy

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12229454 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (22) ◽

pp. 9454

Author(s):

Mauro Francini ◽

Lucia Chieffallo ◽

Annunziata Palermo ◽

Maria Francesca Viapiana

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Case Studies ◽

Southern Italy ◽

Early Stage ◽

Local Level ◽

Urban Context ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation ◽

Climate Exposure ◽

Definition Of

Climate change is contributing to raising disaster risk, with variable impacts depending on the local level of vulnerability. This paper describes a method for the definition of local vulnerability domains to climate change. The application of the methodology is aimed at building local vulnerability maps. The set of indicators of climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, theoretically identified and practically tested on two case studies in southern Italy, contributes to support the territories in identifying the main local vulnerabilities, as well as define, subsequently, a systematic framework for identifying the most suitable mitigation and adaptation measures to climate change according to the specificities of the contexts of interest. In this regard, we consider the framework of risks and related impacts due to climate change on urban infrastructure proposed by the European Commission in order to face common challenges in the EU territories. Specifically, reference is made to three thematic focuses, which are “transport infrastructures”, “energy infrastructures” and “buildings and construction sector”. Although still at an early stage, the results of the research contribute to identifying useful elements of interrelation with the urban context for guiding resilient planning choices and reducing risks.

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Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index Applied to Major Vegetation Types of the Western Interior United States

Land ◽

10.3390/land8070108 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 8 (7) ◽

pp. 108 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Patrick J. Comer ◽

Jon C. Hak ◽

Marion S. Reid ◽

Stephanie L. Auer ◽

Keith A. Schulz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Adaptive Capacity ◽

21St Century ◽

Fire Regime ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Vegetation Types ◽

Ecosystem Sensitivity ◽

Climate Change Vulnerability ◽

Climate Exposure

We applied a framework to assess climate change vulnerability of 52 major vegetation types in the Western United States to provide a spatially explicit input to adaptive management decisions. The framework addressed climate exposure and ecosystem resilience; the latter derived from analyses of ecosystem sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Measures of climate change exposure used observed climate change (1981–2014) and then climate projections for the mid-21st century (2040–2069 RCP 4.5). Measures of resilience included (under ecosystem sensitivity) landscape intactness, invasive species, fire regime alteration, and forest insect and disease risk, and (under adaptive capacity), measures for topo-climate variability, diversity within functional species groups, and vulnerability of any keystone species. Outputs are generated per 100 km2 hexagonal area for each type. As of 2014, moderate climate change vulnerability was indicated for >50% of the area of 50 of 52 types. By the mid-21st century, all but 19 types face high or very high vulnerability with >50% of the area scoring in these categories. Measures for resilience explain most components of vulnerability as of 2014, with most targeted vegetation scoring low in adaptive capacity measures and variably for specific sensitivity measures. Elevated climate exposure explains increases in vulnerability between the current and mid-century time periods.

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Impacts of Global and Climate Change Uncertainties for Disaster Risk Projections: A Case Study on Rainfall-Induced Flood Risk in Bangladesh

Journal of Extreme Events ◽

10.1142/s2345737616500044 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 03 (01) ◽

pp. 1650004 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler ◽

Junko Mochizuki ◽

Georg Pflug

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Extreme Events ◽

Risk Model ◽

Epistemic Uncertainty ◽

Uncertainty Assessment ◽

Economic Losses ◽

Country Level ◽

Extreme Flood ◽

Climate Exposure ◽

Scenario Uncertainty

Future risks linked to extreme events and options for managing them are receiving increasing attention in the research and policy arena, where uncertainty is considered to be one of the most challenging aspects in regard to disasters triggered by natural hazards. To shed more light on this issue, this study conducts a detailed uncertainty assessment of a forward-looking country level catastrophe risk model for extreme flood events in Bangladesh and identifies how various sources of uncertainties contribute to the variability in modeling results. Alternative assumptions of climate, exposure and vulnerability parameters show that scenario uncertainty regarding socio-economic development — and exposure in particular — seems to dominate other sources of uncertainty. Importantly, this trend is particularly notable for the estimate of extreme events rather than annual average losses and for the prediction over the longer-time horizons rather than near future. It is concluded that there is ample need to better understand how future vulnerability and exposure will develop as they found to be core determinants of risk, apart from climate change, for increases in extreme losses. One viable way is the incorporation of bottom-up assessment of exposure asset build-up and further analysis of vulnerability drivers, which could reduce epistemic uncertainty regarding projection of catastrophic economic losses into future. It is suggested that the concept of “iterative risk management” may provide a feasible way to achieve reduction of these uncertainties in a step-by-step basis.

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Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index Applied to Major Vegetation Types of the Western Interior United States

10.20944/preprints201905.0272.v1 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Patrick J. Comer ◽

Jon C. Hak ◽

Marion S. Reid ◽

Stephanie Auer ◽

Keith Schulz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Adaptive Capacity ◽

21St Century ◽

Fire Regime ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Vegetation Types ◽

Ecosystem Sensitivity ◽

Climate Change Vulnerability ◽

Climate Exposure

We applied a framework to assess climate change vulnerability of 52 major vegetation types in the western United States to provide spatially-explicit input to adaptive management decisions. The framework addressed climate exposure and ecosystem resilience; the latter derived from analyses of ecosystem sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Measures of climate change exposure used observed climate change (1981-2014) and then climate projections for the mid-21st century (2040-2069 RCP 4.5). Measures of resilience included (under ecosystem sensitivity) landscape intactness, invasive species, fire regime alteration, and forest insect & disease risk, and (under adaptive capacity), measures for topo-climate variability, diversity with functional species groups, and vulnerability of any keystone species. Outputs are generated per 100km2 hexagonal area for each type. As of 2014, moderate climate change vulnerability was indicated for >50% of the area of 50 of 52 types. By the mid-21st century, all but 19 types face high or very high vulnerability with >50% of the area scoring in these categories. Measures for resilience explain most components of vulnerability as of 2014, with most targeted vegetation scoring low in adaptive capacity measures and variably for specific sensitivity measures. Elevated climate exposure explains increases in vulnerability between the current and mid-century time periods.

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Averting robo-bees: why free-flying robotic bees are a bad idea

Emerging Topics in Life Sciences ◽

10.1042/etls20190063 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (6) ◽

pp. 723-729

Author(s):

Roslyn Gleadow ◽

Jim Hanan ◽

Alan Dorin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Computer Simulation ◽

Food Security ◽

European Countries ◽

Plant Interactions ◽

Plant Insect Interactions ◽

Native Habitat ◽

Insect Pollinators ◽

Insect Interactions

Food security and the sustainability of native ecosystems depends on plant-insect interactions in countless ways. Recently reported rapid and immense declines in insect numbers due to climate change, the use of pesticides and herbicides, the introduction of agricultural monocultures, and the destruction of insect native habitat, are all potential contributors to this grave situation. Some researchers are working towards a future where natural insect pollinators might be replaced with free-flying robotic bees, an ecologically problematic proposal. We argue instead that creating environments that are friendly to bees and exploring the use of other species for pollination and bio-control, particularly in non-European countries, are more ecologically sound approaches. The computer simulation of insect-plant interactions is a far more measured application of technology that may assist in managing, or averting, ‘Insect Armageddon' from both practical and ethical viewpoints.

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Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

Emerging Topics in Life Sciences ◽

10.1042/etls20180113 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 221-231 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Rebecca Millington ◽

Peter M. Cox ◽

Jonathan R. Moore ◽

Gabriel Yvon-Durocher

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Diffusion Rate ◽

Individual Species ◽

Genetic Evolution ◽

Rates Of Change ◽

Rapid Climate Change ◽

Warming Climate ◽

Intraspecies Competition ◽

High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

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