scholarly journals Sensitivity and mathematical model analysis on secondhand smoking tobacco

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Birliew Fekede ◽  
Benyam Mebrate
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Primary Case ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Relative Change ◽  
Well Posed ◽  
Mathematical Model Analysis

AbstractIn this paper, we are concerned with a mathematical model of secondhand smoker. The model is biologically meaningful and mathematically well posed. The reproductive number $$R_{0}$$ R 0 is determined from the model, and it measures the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a fully susceptible population. If $$R_{0}<1,$$ R 0 < 1 , the smoking-free equilibrium point is stable, and if $$R_{0}>1,$$ R 0 > 1 , endemic equilibrium point is unstable. We also provide numerical simulation to show stability of equilibrium points. In addition, sensitivity analysis of parameters involving in the dynamic system of the proposed model has been included. The parameters involving in reproductive number measure the relative change in $$R_{0}$$ R 0 when the value of the parameter changes.

scholarly journals SEIPR-Mathematical Model of the Pneumonia Spreading in Toddlers with Immunization and Treatment Effects

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 202-218
Author(s):  
Rusniwati S. Imran ◽  
Resmawan Resmawan ◽  
Novianita Achmad ◽  
Agusyarif Rezka Nuha
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Treatment Success ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Reproductive Number

This research discussed the SEIPR mathematical model on the spread of pneumonia among children under five years old. The development of the model was done by considering factors of immunization and treatment factors, in an effort to reduce the rate of spread of pneumonia. In this research, mathematical model construction, stability analysis, and numerical simulation were carried out to see the dynamics of pneumonia cases in the population. The model analysis produces two equilibrium points, which are the equilibrium point without the disease, the endemic equilibrium point, and the basic reproduction number ( ) as the threshold value for disease spread. The point of equilibrium without disease reaches a stable state at the moment , which indicates that pneumonia will disappear from the population, while the endemic equilibrium point reaches a stable state at that time , which indicates that the disease will spread in the population. Furthermore, numerical simulations show that increasing the rate parameters of infected individuals undergoing treatment ( ), the treatment success rate ( ), and the immunization proportion ( ), could suppress the basic reproductive number so that control of the disease spread rate can be accelerated.

MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF THE ENDEMIC EQUILIBRIUM OF MALARIAHYGIENE MODEL

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oluwafemi Temidayo J. ◽  
Azuaba E. ◽  
Lasisi N. O.
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Globally Stable ◽  
Well Posed ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Invariant Principle

In this study, we analyzed the endemic equilibrium point of a malaria-hygiene mathematical model. We prove that the mathematical model is biological and meaningfully well-posed. We also compute the basic reproduction number using the next generation method. Stability analysis of the endemic equilibrium point show that the point is locally stable if reproduction number is greater that unity and globally stable by the Lasalle’s invariant principle. Numerical simulation to show the dynamics of the compartment at various hygiene rate was carried out.

scholarly journals Analysis of Smooth Implementation of Industry Poverty Alleviation considering Government Supervision

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Haifeng Yao ◽  
Jiangyue Fu
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Evolutionary Game Theory ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Evolutionary Game ◽  
Parameter Design ◽  
Game Model ◽  
Government Supervision ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Government

Vigorous implementation of industrial poverty alleviation is the fundamental path and core power of poverty alleviation in impoverished areas. Enterprises and poor farmers are the main participants in industry poverty alleviation. Government supervision measures regulate their behaviors. This study investigates how to smoothly implement industry poverty alleviation projects considering government supervision. A game model is proposed based on the evolutionary game theory. It analyses the game processes between enterprises and poor farmers with and without government supervision based on the proposed model. It is shown that poverty alleviation projects will fail without government supervision given that the equilibrium point (0, 0) is the ultimate convergent point of the system but will possibly succeed with government supervision since the equilibrium points (0, 0) and (1, 1) are the ultimate convergent point of the system, where equilibrium point (1, 1) is our desired results. Different supervision modes have different effects on the game process. This study considers three supervision modes, namely, only reward mode, only penalty mode, and reward and penalty mode, and investigates the parameter design for the reward and penalty mode. The obtained results are helpful for the government to develop appropriate policies for the smooth implementation of industry poverty alleviation projects.

scholarly journals A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission between frontliners and the general public

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Alvin H. Buhat ◽  
Monica C. Torres ◽  
Yancee H. Olave ◽  
Maica Krizna A. Gavina ◽  
Edd Francis O. Felix ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Customer Service ◽  
General Public ◽  
Food Service ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Primary Case ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Community Effort

ABSTRACTThe number of COVID-19 cases is continuously increasing in different countries (as of March 2020) including the Philippines. It is estimated that the basic reproductive number of COVID-19 is around 1.5 to 4. The basic reproductive number characterizes the average number of persons that a primary case can directly infect in a population full of susceptible individuals. However, there can be superspreaders that can infect more than this estimated basic reproductive number. In this study, we formulate a conceptual mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 between the frontliners and the general public. We assume that the general public has a reproductive number between 1.5 to 4, and frontliners (e.g. healthcare workers, customer service and retail personnel, food service crews, and transport or delivery workers) have a higher reproduction number. Our simulations show that both the frontliners and the general public should be protected or resilient against the disease. Protecting only the frontliners will not result in flattening the epidemic curve. Protecting only the general public may flatten the epidemic curve but the infection risk faced by the frontliners is still high, which may eventually affect their work. Our simple model does not consider all factors involved in COVID-19 transmission in a community, but the insights from our model results remind us of the importance of community effort in controlling the transmission of the disease. All in all, the take-home message is that everyone in the community, whether a frontliner or not, should be protected or should implement preventive measures to avoid being infected.

scholarly journals A Simplified Mathematical Model for Two-Sided Market Systems With an Intervening Engineered Platform

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaushik Sinha ◽  
Edoardo F. Colombo ◽  
Narek R. Shougarian ◽  
Olivier L. de Weck
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Side Effects ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Stochastic Choice ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Value Propositions ◽  
User Groups ◽  
Behavioral Asymmetry ◽  
Simplified Mathematical Model

A two-sided market involves two different user groups whose interactions are enabled over a platform that provides a distinct set of values to either side. In such market systems, one side’s participation depends on the value created by presence of the other side over the platform. Two-sided market platforms must acquire enough users on both sides in appropriate proportions to generate value to either side of the user market. In this paper, we present a simplified, generic mathematical model for two-sided markets with an intervening platform that enables interaction between the two different sets of users with distinct value propositions. The proposed model captures both the same side as well as cross-side effects (i.e., network externalities) and can capture any behavioral asymmetry between the different sides of the two-sided market system. The cross-side effects are captured using the notion of affinity curves while same side effects are captured using four rate parameters. We demonstrate the methodology on canonical affinity curves and comment on the attainment of stability at the equilibrium points of two-sided market systems. Subsequently a stochastic choice-based model of consumers and developers is described to simulate a two-sided market from grounds-up and the observed affinity curves are documented. Finally we discuss how the two-sided market model links with and impacts the engineering characteristics of the platform.

scholarly journals The Dynamical Analysis of a Prey-Predator Model with a Refuge-Stage Structure Prey Population

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raid Kamel Naji ◽  
Salam Jasim Majeed
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Stage Structure ◽  
Dynamical Analysis ◽  
Local Bifurcation ◽  
Structure Population ◽  
Global Stability Analysis ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Predator Model ◽  
Predator System

We proposed and analyzed a mathematical model dealing with two species of prey-predator system. It is assumed that the prey is a stage structure population consisting of two compartments known as immature prey and mature prey. It has a refuge capability as a defensive property against the predation. The existence, uniqueness, and boundedness of the solution of the proposed model are discussed. All the feasible equilibrium points are determined. The local and global stability analysis of them are investigated. The occurrence of local bifurcation (such as saddle node, transcritical, and pitchfork) near each of the equilibrium points is studied. Finally, numerical simulations are given to support the analytic results.

scholarly journals The Dynamics of a Single Species in a Polluted Environment

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Raid Kamel Naji ◽  
Mona Ghassan Younis ◽  
Mohammad Naeemullah
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Local Stability ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Polluted Environment ◽  
Nonlinear Mathematical Model ◽  
Proposed Model

This article proposed and analysed a nonlinear mathematical model that consist of a single species in a polluted environment (PE). The proposed model was also discussed in terms of its uniqueness, existence, and boundedness of the solution. Also, each possible equilibrium point was analysed for local stability, followed by investigation of the global dynamics of the system using the Lypanov functions. The effects of the presence of toxicants on the dynamics of a single species in the PE was numerically investigated

scholarly journals Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Khat-Chewing Dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Kahsay Godifey Wubneh ◽  
Fitsum Mulaw Desta ◽  
Hafte Amsalu Kahsay
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Religious Leaders ◽  
Modeling And Analysis ◽  
Khat Chewing ◽  
Parameter Estimations ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Khat Chewer

Khat is a green leaf and greenish plant where its branches and leaves are chewed to discharge liquid having active chemicals that change the user’s mood. The purpose of this article is to develop and analyze a mathematical model that can be used to understand the dynamics of chewing Khat. The proposed model monitors the dynamics of five compartments, namely, a group of people who do not chew Khat, designated as N t ; a group of people who are surrounded by Khat chewers but do not chew at present and may chew Khat in the future, denoted this as Σ t ; a group of people who chew Khat, which is represented in C t ; a group of people contains individuals who consumed Khat quite temporarily for social, spiritual, and recreational purposes, and we describe this group in T t ; and a group of people those who constantly chew Khat, and they are denoted by H t . We determined the Khat chewing generation number R c 0 using the next-generation matrix method, and we have examined the biological meaningfulness, mathematical wellposedness, and stability of both Khat chewing-free and Khat chewing-present equilibrium points of the model analytically. Numerical simulations were presented by solving our dynamical system using Matlabode45 to check the analytical results by considering parameter estimations. The results of this study show that, for R c 0 = .00039 , the Khat chewing-free equilibrium point is stable, and it is unstable for R c 0 = 1.194 , and the Khat chewing-present equilibrium point is stable if R c 0 = 1.194 , and it is unstable if R c 0 = .00039 . The stability of both equilibrium points implies that, for a high rate of conversion from non-Khat chewer to exposed groups ρ , the inflow of an insignificant number of Khat chewers to the community produces a significant number of Khat chewers , and if the return back from Khat chewing to the exposed group because of socio-economic, environmental, and religious influences α 2 grows exponentially, the inflow of an insignificant number of Khat chewers to the community produces an insignificant number of Khat chewers. It is found that increasing the rate of conversion from non-Khat chewer to exposed groups ρ makes the disease eradication more challenging. We, therefore, strongly urge religious leaders, social committee leaders, elders, and health experts to teach their followers to reduce their Khat-chewing habits.

scholarly journals Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number and its uncertainty: framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang Woo Park ◽  
Benjamin M. Bolker ◽  
David Champredon ◽  
David J. D. Earn ◽  
Michael Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Similar Data ◽  
Primary Case ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
Generation Interval ◽  
Statistical Framework ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Global Threat

AbstractA novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has recently emerged as a global threat. As the epidemic progresses, many disease modelers have focused on estimating the basic reproductive number ℛ0– the average number of secondary cases caused by a primary case in an otherwise susceptible population. The modeling approaches and resulting estimates of ℛ0 vary widely, despite relying on similar data sources. Here, we present a novel statistical framework for comparing and combining different estimates of ℛ0 across a wide range of models by decomposing the basic reproductive number into three key quantities: the exponential growth rate r, the mean generation interval , and the generation-interval dispersion κ. We then apply our framework to early estimates of ℛ0 for the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. We show that many early ℛ0 estimates are overly confident. Our results emphasize the importance of propagating uncertainties in all components of ℛ0, including the shape of the generation-interval distribution, in efforts to estimate ℛ0 at the outset of an epidemic.

scholarly journals Dynamics of COVID-19 Epidemic Model with Asymptomatic Infection, Quarantine, Protection and Vaccination

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-124
Author(s):  
Raqqasyi Rahmatullah Musafir ◽  
Agus Suryanto ◽  
Isnani Darti
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

We discuss the dynamics of new COVID-19 epidemic model by considering asymptomatic infections and the policies such as quarantine, protection (adherence to health protocols), and vaccination. The proposed model contains nine subpopulations: susceptible (S), exposed (E), symptomatic infected (I), asymptomatic infected (A), recovered (R), death (D), protected (P), quarantined (Q), and vaccinated (V ). We first show the non-negativity and boundedness of solutions. The equilibrium points, basic reproduction number, and stability of equilibrium points, both locally and globally, are also investigated analytically. The proposed model has disease-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point. The disease-free equilibrium point always exists and is globally asymptotically stable if basic reproduction number is less than one. The endemic equilibrium point exists uniquely and is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is greater than one. These properties have been confirmed by numerical simulations using the fourth order Runge-Kutta method. Numerical simulations show that the disease transmission rate of asymptomatic infection, quarantine rates, protection rate, and vaccination rates affect the basic reproduction number and hence also influence the stability of equilibrium points.

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