scholarly journals The impact of government policies on Nigeria economic growth (case of fiscal, monetary and trade policies)

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olufemi Samuel Adegboyo ◽  
Sunday Anderu Keji ◽  
Oluwadamilola Tosin Fasina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bound Test

AbstractThis study examines the impact of fiscal, monetary and trade policies on Nigerian economic growth from 1985 to 2020. This study adopts endogenous growth model (AK model) as its theoretical framework. The unit root test results reveal that there is mixed level of stationarity in the variables. The bound test result shows that the variables cointegrate. The ARDL long-run result shows that fiscal policies stimulate economic growth, while on the contrary, trade policies deter Nigerian economic growth. The short-run result shows that the fiscal policies has an inconsistent impact on Nigerian economic growth and thus differs from the long-run result; while government spending continues to drive economic growth in Nigeria, government revenues have no effect on the growth of the economy. The result of the impact of monetary policies shows that interest rate impels growth of the economy while money supply deters growth of Nigeria’s economy; lastly, the trade policies maintain her negative influence on the economy in both the long run and short run. Sequel to the findings, the study recommends the following: Policymakers should place more emphasis on using fiscal policy which was found to be stimulating the country's growth rate. Whenever it is expedient to use monetary policy to stimulate economic growth, policy makers should make use of interest rates as it stimulates the growth of the economy in the short run. The government should review her trade policies to reduce import by encouraging consumption of local products and motivate exporters of goods (raw material) to refine the products before exporting such.

SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ahmadi Murjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

 Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly. 

scholarly journals Relative Impact of Domestic and Foreign Public Debt on Economic Growth in South Africa

2020 ◽  
pp. 193672442098041
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Relative Impact ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the debt-growth nexus by testing both the impact of aggregate public debt on economic growth and the relative impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth using South Africa as the case study—from 1970 to 2017. Based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique, the findings reveal that the impact of aggregated public debt on economic growth in South Africa is statistically significant and negative, both in the short run and in the long run. The results further reveal that domestic public debt and economic growth have a statistically significant and positive relationship in the short run only. Furthermore, foreign public debt has a statistically significant and negative relationship with economic growth but only in the long run. Therefore, the study recommends the government to manage effectively its debt and to finance long-term high-returning productive investments that should translate into economic growth. Finally, the study cautions the country against growing public debt, predominantly foreign debt, to finance its increasing recurrent expenditure needs.

scholarly journals Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in Brunei: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Issa Moh’d Hemed ◽  
Suleiman Malik Faki ◽  
Salim Hamad Suleiman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Environmental Pollution ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Bound Test

Aims: This study examined the short run and long run dynamic relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in Brunei. We adoptedAuto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to scrutinize the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) among the studying variables by using time series data cover the period of 1974 to 2014. Methodology: The ARDL bound test revealed the existence of long-run relationship among the integrated variables when CO2 chosen as a dependent variable. Results: The results support the existences of EKC hypotheses in the long-run whereas in the short-run an inverted U-shaped curve was not confirmed between GDP and CO2 in Brunei. The results of Granger causality based on VECM analysis have shown unidirectional causality runs from economic growth to CO2 in the short run. Further analysis through stability test indicates the coefficients in the model are stable and do not suffers with structural break within the time taken in the study. Conclusion: The government of Brunei should proceed to target the sustainable means of production, which has an environmental friendly and consumes less energy to enhance economic growth and maintain environmental quality in the long run.

scholarly journals Inflationary Effect on Nigeria Economic Growth: The ARDL Bound Test Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 25-36
Author(s):  
B. U. K. Farouk ◽  
I. J. David ◽  
N. S. Agog
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Sampled Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Stable Estimation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bound Test

The expectation of any country is to experience a high output but in the presence of increasing inflation such expectation becomes blurring because high inflation is a sign of a low working economic system. In this research the impact of inflation rate (InfR) on Nigeria economic growth (EcoG) is studied for the period of 1986 to 2018 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test approach to determine the co-integration existence between InfR and EcoG and determine the long run effect through the approach of Error Correction Model (ECM). The results obtained showed that an ARDL (2, 2) model was the best fitted model for the sampled data based on the smallest Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) value obtained. Also, it was found that InfR significantly impacted on Nigeria EcoG negatively on the long and short run dynamics with a stable estimation as portrayed by the CUSUM square chart.

scholarly journals Causal Relationship Among Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions, Renewable Energy, Population and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: An Empirical Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 196
Author(s):  
Shanjida Chowdhury ◽  
K. B. M. Rajibul Hasan ◽  
Mahfujur Rahman ◽  
K. M. Anwarul Islam ◽  
Nurul Mohammad Zayed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
Bound Test

Developing countries face environmental degradation crisis due to the consumption of nonrenewable energy for economic development induces ecological destruction. However, the consequences of environmental deterioration can no longer be overlooked. Using data from 1990 from 2018, this study scrutinized the long-run equilibrium along with the trend among consumption of renewable energy, carbon dioxide emissions, Population, and economic growth in Bangladesh. This study reveals the significant cointegration of renewable energy with controlled variables using the ARDL bound test. Also, ECM with ARDL unrestricted version enables us to decide the speed of adjustment is 27.647% addressed for short-run elasticity in the long run. Stability and further diagnostic tests are performed for model post estimation and validation. Also, it needs further steps from the government side to promote renewable energy that boosts economic development.

Impact Of Demonetization On The Economic Parameters That Affect The Growth Of Nonperforming Asset Of Indian Banks

GIS Business ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 176-184
Author(s):  
Sanjoy Laha ◽  
Rabin Mazumder
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Indian Banks ◽  
Public And Private Sector ◽  
The Impact

The demonetization decision by the government of India affected almost all service sectors of Indian economy, out of which the banking sectors were affected the most. Due to demonetization bulk amount of old currency notes of INR 500 and INR 1000 were deposited to banks; that not only increased the capital base of banks, but those un-used cash boosted the liability of loan disbursement. Again the reducing interest rates, providing account opening facility and issuing loan to the depositors by banks without judging their repayment ability resulted a chance of increasing number of defaulters and the value of nonperforming assets. Considering the scenario the present research work tried to focus on the impact of demonetization towards the movement of nonperforming assets of Indian banks. A multivariate regression analysis was performed by considering income, expenditure and net profit ratio as internal and the percentage change of India’s GDP, inflation and foreign exchange rate as external independent variables towards the net nonperforming assets changes of Indian public and private sector banks as dependent variable from financial year 2016-17 to 2018-19. Though the outcome of the study revealed that demonetization helped to reduce the nonperforming asset values in short run but in long run it would stimulate the growth of nonperforming assets.

scholarly journals The Performances of insurance industry and the Nigerian economic growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 06-12
Author(s):  
Emeka Nkoro ◽  
NenuBari Ikue-John ◽  
Chidinma Mary Nwantah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Adf Test ◽  
Bound Test

This research analyzed the insurance industry and economic growth in Nigeria between 1980 and 2015. Secondary data ranging from real gross domestic product, the premium of the insurance business, claim expenditure of insurance industry and inflation rate were utilized and sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) multiple regression techniques, Descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test of stationarity and ARDL Bound Test Co-Integration were adopted for the model in the Study. The findings revealed that the premium of the insurance industry (PMI) impacts negatively on economic growth both in the extended and short run period. The claim expenditure of the insurance industry (CEX) revealed a progressive relationship with economic growth in the long run and a negative relation with growth in the short run. We therefore conclude following the Keynesian theory of aggregate demand which states that, ‘’if we will have to wait till the long run, we will all be dead’’, that insurance industry in Nigeria has not impacted positively on economic growth of Nigeria within the period under review and its operations and investment have not been prominent and contributory to the growth and development of Nigeria. Based on these outcomes, we recommend amongst others, that more investment ought to be made towards the insurance industry in Nigeria especially in terms of proper policy formulation by the government that would channel funds and encourage competition among the players in the industry and invariably contribute to the growth of the economy.

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

scholarly journals Economic Development, CO2 Emissions and Energy Use Nexus-Evidence from the Danube Region Countries

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3165
Author(s):  
Eva Litavcová ◽  
Jana Chovancová
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Mutual Cooperation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Danube Region ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to examine the empirical cointegration, long-run and short-run dynamics and causal relationships between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in 14 Danube region countries over the period of 1990–2019. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing methodology was applied for each of the examined variables as a dependent variable. Limited by the length of the time series, we excluded two countries from the analysis and obtained valid results for the others for 26 of 36 ARDL models. The ARDL bounds reliably confirmed long-run cointegration between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Economic growth and energy consumption have a significant impact on carbon emissions in the long-run in all of these four countries; in the short-run, the impact of economic growth is significant in Austria. Likewise, when examining cointegration between energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in the short-run, a significant contribution of CO2 emissions on energy consumptions for seven countries was found as a result of nine valid models. The results contribute to the information base essential for making responsible and informed decisions by policymakers and other stakeholders in individual countries. Moreover, they can serve as a platform for mutual cooperation and cohesion among countries in this region.

scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

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