Nomograms for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC): Construction from 19,678 ARCAD patients.

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 659-659
Author(s):  
Katrin Marie Sjoquist ◽  
Lindsay A. Renfro ◽  
John Simes ◽  
Niall C. Tebbutt ◽  
Stephen John Clarke ◽  
...  

659 Background: Prospective survival prediction of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer is difficult. Prognosis estimation based on readily available clinicopathologic factors has the potential to inform clinical practice and improve risk stratification for clinical trials. We constructed prognostic nomograms for OS and PFS in mCRC using the multi-trial ARCAD database. Methods: Data from 19,678 mCRC pts accrued to 24 first line randomized phase III clinical trials since 1997 were used to construct and validate Cox models for PFS and OS, stratified by treatment arm within each study. Candidate variables included age, gender, BMI, performance status, colon vs. rectal cancer, prior chemotherapy, number of metastatic sites, sites of metastases (liver, lung, lymph nodes), and baseline bilirubin, albumin, white blood cell count, hemoglobin, platelets, absolute neutrophil count, and derived neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio (dNLR). Missing data (<11%) were imputed, continuous variables modeled with splines, and clinically relevant pairwise interactions considered if p<0.001. Final models were internally validated via bootstrapping to obtain optimism-corrected calibration and discrimination C-indices, and externally validated using a 10% holdout sample from each trial. Results: Nomograms for OS and PFS including remaining variables were well calibrated with C-indices of 0.66 and 0.60, respectively. Evaluation of external validity revealed good concordance; 71% and 67% respectively between predicted (> vs. <50% probability) and actual (yes/no) 1-year OS and 6-month PFS, and median 1-year OS and 6-month PFS predictions fell within the actual 95% Kaplan-Meier intervals. Gender, liver and lung metastases, and dNLR were not prognostic for OS; prior chemo, colon vs. rectum, dNLR, liver and lymph node metastases, and gender did not predict for PFS. No clinically relevant pairwise interactions were identified. Conclusions: The proposed nomograms are well calibrated and internally and externally valid. These tools have the potential to aid prognostication and patient/physician communication, and balance risk in randomized trials in mCRC.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 108-108
Author(s):  
Benjamin Adam Weinberg ◽  
Manel Rakez ◽  
Benoist Chibaudel ◽  
Tim Maughan ◽  
Richard Adams ◽  
...  

108 Background: Primary tumor sidedness has emerged as a prognostic and predictive biomarker for patients (pts) with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Tumor bulk has also been postulated to predict response to anti-EGFR therapy. We sought to evaluate the role of tumor bulk as a predictive biomarker to anti-EGFR therapy in pts with left- (LS) and right-sided (RS) mCRC. Methods: Data from 476 pts with mCRC enrolled across 2 first-line trials of anti-EGFR plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy were pooled. Pts were included if there was available information on tumor sidedness and tumor bulk. All were KRAS wild-type and BRAF wild-type or unknown BRAF status. The right colon was defined as the cecum through the transverse colon, and the left colon as the splenic flexure through the rectum. Tumor bulk was the mean tumor size of target lesions at baseline, bulky defined as > 3.5 cm. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were assessed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox models adjusting for performance status (PS), platelet count, primary tumor (PT) resection, number of metastatic sites, and stratified by study. Results: Pts with bulky tumors (211, 44%) had higher PS, white blood cell and platelet counts, higher CEA, fewer sites of metastatic disease, more liver than lung metastases, and fewer had PT resection. OS and PFS medians in months (mos) are presented in the table with 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs). Bulky tumors had inferior median OS compared with non-bulky (mOS, 17.9 vs. 21.3 mos, HRadj 1.33, 95% CI 1.05-1.69, P = 0.016) although median PFS was similar (mPFS, 8.6 vs. 8.7 mos, HRadj 1.15, 95% CI 0.92-1.42, P = 0.21). Conclusions: Tumor bulk is an independent prognostic factor for OS in KRAS wild-type and BRAF wild-type or unknown BRAF status pts. Pts with non-bulky RS tumors have survival outcomes similar to pts with bulky LS tumors. Although the mPFS for pts with RS tumors treated with anti-EGFR therapy was the lowest across subgroups, this finding was not statistically significant. Further research is warranted into whether pts with bulky RS tumors benefit from anti-EGFR therapy. Clinical trial information: NCT00182715, NCT00640081. [Table: see text]


2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (17) ◽  
pp. 1929-1937 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lindsay A. Renfro ◽  
Richard M. Goldberg ◽  
Axel Grothey ◽  
Alberto Sobrero ◽  
Richard Adams ◽  
...  

Purpose Factors contributing to early mortality after initiation of treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer are poorly understood. Materials and Methods Data from 22,654 patients enrolled in 28 randomized phase III trials contained in the ARCAD (Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive) database were pooled. Multivariable logistic regression models for 30-, 60-, and 90-day mortality were constructed, including clinically and statistically significant patient and disease factors and interaction terms. A calculator (nomogram) for 90-day mortality was developed and validated internally using bootstrapping methods and externally using a 10% random holdout sample from each trial. The impact of early progression on the likelihood of survival to 90 days was examined with time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models. Results Mortality rates were 1.4% at 30 days, 3.4% at 60 days, and 5.5% at 90 days. Among baseline factors, advanced age, lower body mass index, poorer performance status, increased number of metastatic sites, BRAF mutant status, and several laboratory parameters were associated with increased likelihood of early mortality. A multivariable model for 90-day mortality showed strong internal discrimination (C-index, 0.77) and good calibration across risk groups as well as accurate predictions in the external validation set, both overall and within patient subgroups. Conclusion A validated clinical nomogram has been developed to quantify the risk of early death for individual patients during initial treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer. This tool may be used for patient eligibility assessment or risk stratification in future clinical trials and to identify patients requiring more or less aggressive therapy and additional supportive measures during and after treatment.


2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (21) ◽  
pp. 1887-1896 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clement Chung ◽  
Nisha Pherwani

Abstract Purpose The pharmacology, pharmacokinetics, clinical efficacy, safety, and administration of ziv-aflibercept in combination therapy for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) are reviewed. Summary Ziv-aflibercept (Zaltrap, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals and sanofi-aventis) is a novel recombinant fusion protein that targets the angiogenesis signaling pathway of tumor cells by blocking vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptors that play a key role in tumor growth and metastasis; it is a more potent VEGF blocker than bevacizumab. Ziv-aflibercept is approved by the Food and Drug Administration for use in combination with fluorouracil, irinotecan, and leucovorin (the FOLFIRI regimen) for second-line treatment of patients with mCRC who have disease progression during first-line oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy. A Phase III trial demonstrated that relative to FOLFIRI therapy alone, the use of ziv-aflibercept was associated with significantly improved patient response, overall survival, and progression-free survival in patients with good performance status at baseline, including some who had received prior bevacizumab therapy. The most common grade 3 or 4 adverse effects associated with ziv-aflibercept use in clinical studies were neutropenia, hypertension, and diarrhea; the U.S. product labeling warns of potential hemorrhage and other treatment-related risks. Conclusion Current clinical data are insufficient to directly compare ziv-aflibercept and bevacizumab when used with standard combination chemotherapy as first- or second-line regimens for mCRC. The role of ziv-aflibercept is currently limited to the second-line setting in combination with irinotecan-based regimens in mCRC patients who have not received irinotecan previously. The role of ziv-aflibercept in chemotherapy for other tumor types is yet to be determined.


2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (7) ◽  
pp. 674-681 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Aparicio ◽  
Francois Ghiringhelli ◽  
Valérie Boige ◽  
Karine Le Malicot ◽  
Julien Taieb ◽  
...  

Purpose Conflicting results are reported for maintenance treatment with bevacizumab during chemotherapy-free intervals (CFI) in metastatic colorectal cancer after induction chemotherapy. Patients and Methods In this open-label, phase III, randomized controlled trial, we compared the tumor control duration (TCD) observed with bevacizumab maintenance and with no treatment (observation) during CFI subsequent to induction chemotherapy with 12 cycles of fluorouracil, leucovorin, and irinotecan plus bevacizumab. After disease progression, the induction regimen was repeated for eight cycles, followed by a new CFI. Results From March 2010 to July 2013, 491 patients were randomly assigned. Disease progression or death occurred during induction chemotherapy in 85 patients (17%); 261 patients (53%) had at least one reinduction, 107 (22%) had two reinductions, and 56 (11%) had three or more reinductions. The median TCD was 15 months in both groups; the median progression-free survival (PFS) from randomization was 9.2 and 8.9 months in the maintenance group and observation groups, respectively. The TCD observed in both groups was higher compared with the TCD hypotheses of the trial. The median overall survival (OS) was 21.7 and 22.0 months in the maintenance and observation groups, respectively. In the per-protocol population, defined as patients with at least one reinduction after the first progression, the median duration of the first CFI was 4.3 months in both arms; the median TCD was 17.8 and 23.3 months ( P = .339), the median PFS was 9.9 and 9.5 months, and the median OS was 27.6 and 28.5 months in the maintenance and observation groups, respectively. Multivariable analysis revealed that female gender, WHO performance status ≥ 2, and unresected primary tumors were associated with a shorter TCD. Conclusion Bevacizumab maintenance monotherapy did not improve TCD, CFI duration, PFS, or OS.


2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e14677-e14677
Author(s):  
Svend Erik Nielsen

e14677 Background: Patients, with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), participating in clinical trials are a selected group with a better performance status compared to all patients, who are referred to oncological treatment. The aim of the study was to evaluate the benefit of standard treatment modalities, offered to an unselected group of patients, referred to our Dept. of Oncology. Methods: Consecutive patients treated with more than one cycle of chemotherapy, registrated in our database from May 2003 to July 2012, were included. Clinical information was obtained from patient files. The outcome was overall survival for various groups. Following parameters were collected: Gender, age, primary tumor site, resection status of primary tumor, number of metastic sites, liver-only mets, number of chemotherapy regimens, +/- Bevazicumab and rate of palliative radiation. Results: 266 consequtive patients, treated with more than one cycle of chemotherapy, were included. Median age 67 (31-86) years, 150 male (59%). Distribution of the primary tumor was 35/37/28% for rectum/left colon/right colon. 192/59/15 (72/22/6%) had the primary tumor resected/not resected/stent. 54/37/9% had one metastic site/ two sites/three or more sites. 24% had liver only. As first line chemotherapy 29% received Capecitabine (CAP), 55% CAP + Oxaliplatin, and 8% CAP + Irinotecan. 44% received Bevacizumab. 69%/27% received either second and third line chemotherapy. 19% received palliative radiotherapy. Median OS for the whole population was 17 months CI ( 15-19). Patients with one, two or three, or more mets sites had a OS of 21(CI: 16-26)/17 (14-20)/9 (4-149) months, respectively. For patients receiving one, two, or three lines of chemotherapy OS was respectively 8/16/28 months. Addition of Bevacizumab to chemotherapy regimens had an OS of 27 months CI (24-30), compared to 20 months (16-24) for chemotherapy alone. Conclusions: Unselected mCRC patients, treated with standard chemotherapy regimens, seem to obtain the same OS benefit as seen in clinical trials. Survival benefit was dependent on the number of metastatic sites, the number of cht. regimens received and addition of Bevacizumab to the treatment.


2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 673-673
Author(s):  
Ziwei Wang ◽  
Lindsay Hwang ◽  
James Don Murphy

673 Background: Randomized clinical trials play a central role in clinical research though only a small fraction of patients partake in clinical studies. Questions thus arise regarding the generalizability of clinical trial results to the remainder of the population. This study evaluated whether patient survival from randomized clinical trials in metastatic colorectal cancer reflects real world outcomes. Methods: A Pubmed search was used to identify randomized phase III clinical trials of first-line treatment for metastatic colorectal cancer published between 2005 and 2010. We excluded secondary or pooled analyses, second-line treatments, non-metastatic patients, non-English language, and non-randomized studies. Thirty-one clinical trials met these criteria, comprised of 79 distinct clinical trial arms. Overall survival among clinical trial patients was compared to metastatic colorectal cancer patients within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. Within SEER, we restricted the analysis time-period and age of patients to match the enrollment period and age of patients within each individual clinical trial. Results: The clinical trials enrolled a total of 16,614 patients. Among all clinical trial arms the median survival ranged from 6.7-62 months, 1-year survival ranged from 30-97%, and 2-year survival ranged from 6-88%. Compared to SEER, the median survival was higher in 95% of the individual clinical trial arms by an average of 5.4 months (p<0.0001). The 1-year survival was higher in 94% of the clinical trial arms by an average of 16.7% (p<0.0001). The 2-year survival was higher in 71% of the clinical trial arms by an average of 7.2% (p<0.0001). Conclusions: This study found substantially improved survival among clinical trial participants compared to patients in the SEER database suggesting that survival estimates from clinical trials may not generalize to the “real world.” Potential patient factors such as differences in underlying comorbidity, performance status, disease burden, as well as variation in treatment could not be addressed in this study, though these factors likely explain some of the observed survival differences.


2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. TPS776-TPS776 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takayuki Yoshino ◽  
Hiroyuki Uetake ◽  
Katsuya Tsuchihara ◽  
Kohei Shitara ◽  
Kentaro Yamazaki ◽  
...  

TPS776 Background: Optimal combination of monoclonal antibody (anti-VEGF vs. anti-EGFR antibody) with standard chemotherapy as first-line treatment in patients (pts) with RAS (KRAS/NRAS) wild-type metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) remains controversial. FIRE-3 study demonstrated a significant improvement in overall survival (OS) with anti-EGFR over bevacizumab in pts with KRAS exon 2 wild type mCRC, while CALGB 80405 study did not. PARADIGM study is designed to compare panitumumab vs. bevacizumab combined with mFOLFOX6 in pts with RAS wild-type chemotherapy-naive mCRC. Methods: Eligible pts are aged 20-79 years with ECOG performance status (PS) 0-1 and histologically/cytologically confirmed RAS wild-type mCRC. 800 pts will be randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to mFOLFOX6 plus panitumumab or bevacizumab, and stratified according to institution, age (20-64 vs. 65-79 years), and liver metastases (present vs. absent). Each treatment regimen includes oxaliplatin 85 mg/m2, l-leucovorin 200 mg/m2, 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) iv 400 mg/m2 at day 1, 5-FU civ 2400 mg/m2 at day 1-3, and either panitumumab 6 mg/kg or bevacizumab 5 mg/kg at day 1 every two weeks. The primary endpoint is the OS; the study was designed to detect the OS hazard ratio of 0.76, with a one-sided type I error of 0.025 and 80% power. Secondary efficacy endpoints include progression-free survival, response rate, duration of response, and curative resection rate. One interim analysis is planned for the OS when approximately 70% of the targeted 570 events has been observed. Exploratory endpoint is to investigate possible biomarkers including oncogenic mutations using tumor tissue and circulating tumor DNA (Study ID: NCT02394834). As of August 2015, 21 pts have been randomized and recruitment is ongoing. Clinical trial information: NCT02394795.


2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 3540-3540 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shota Fukuoka ◽  
Toshikazu Moriwaki ◽  
Hiroya Taniguchi ◽  
Atsuo Takashima ◽  
Yosuke Kumekawa ◽  
...  

3540 Background: It is unclear which drug of REG or TAS-102 should be used earlier for the patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) who have access to both drugs. This study investigated the comparison of the efficacy between REG and TAS-102 in patients with refractory to standard chemotherapies. Methods: The clinical data of patients who were treated with REG or TAS-102 among these drugs naive mCRC patients between Jun 2014 and Sep 2015 were retrospectively delivered from 24 institutions of Japanese Society for Cancer of the Colon and Rectum (JSCCR). The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS). Propensity score (PS) was calculated with a logistic regression, in which using baseline parameters were included. Two methods, adjusted and matched analysis, to take propensity score were used. The clinical outcomes were evaluated with Kaplan-Meier method and Cox models based on PS adjustment and matching. Results: Total of 589 patients were enrolled and 550 patients (223 patients in the REG group and 327 patients in the TAS-102 group) met criteria for inclusion in the analysis. The results from PS adjusted analyses showed that OS was similar between the two groups (HR of TAS-102 to REG, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.78–1.18). There were also no statistically significant differences between two groups for progression-free survival (HR 0.94) and time to ECOG Performance status≥2 (HR 1.00), expect for time to treatment failure (HR 0.81; P = 0.025). In the subgroup analysis, REG showed favorable survival compared with TAS-102 in the age of < 65 years patients and unfavorable survival in ≥65 years patients (P for interaction = 0.012). In the PS matched sample (174 patients in each group), the clinical outcomes were similar to the results of the PS adjusted analysis. Conclusions: Although REG and TAS-102 showed a similar efficacy in mCRC patients with refractory to standard chemotherapies, the choice of the drug by age might affect the survival. Supported by JSCCR. Clinical trial information: UMIN000020416


2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. TPS780-TPS780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kei Muro ◽  
Tae Won Kim ◽  
Young Suk Park ◽  
Hiroyuki Uetake ◽  
Tomohiro Nishina ◽  
...  

TPS780 Background: Life-prolonging systemic therapy such as chemotherapy (FOLFOX, XELOX, FOLFIRI, 5-FU/LV) with / without molecular targeted agents (bevacizumab, afilibercept, cetuximab, panitumumab) are important treatment for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). On the other hand, it is required to establish an evidence of convenient therapy including oral anticancer agent which is expected lower risk of safety. XELIRI was already examined by various doses in this decade, and result of AIO 0604 was regarded as one of the most appropriate regimen. The BIX phase II study showed the tolerability and promising efficacy of the AIO regimen for Japanese mCRC patients (Hamamoto Y, et al. Oncologist 2014). Methods: Asian XELIRI Project (AXEPT) is an East Asian collaborated, open label, randomized phase III clinical trial designed to demonstrate the non-inferiority of XELIRI (+bevacizumab) to the standard of care FOLFIRI (+bevacizumab) as the second-line chemotherapy in patients with mCRC. The primary endpoint is median overall survival. The secondary endpoints are progression-free survival, time to treatment failure, overall response rate, disease control rate, relative dose intensity, safety, correlation between UGT1A1 polymorphisms (*28, *6) and safety. Eligible patients were 20 years of age and older, had histologically proven CRC, ECOG performance status 0-2, adequate organ function, progression or difficult to continue after first line regimen. Patients were randomized 1:1 to standard FOLFIRI (+bevacizuamb 5mg/kg day1), repeated every 14 days (Group A) or XELIRI, Irinotecan 200mg/m2 day1, and capecitabine 1600mg/m2 day 1-14 (+bevacizumab 7.5mg/kg day1), repeated every 21 days (Group B). A Total of 464 events were needed to show non-inferiority with a two-sided α of 0·05 and a power of 80%, a target sample size of 600 patients was required. (The 95% CI upper limit of the hazard ratio was pre-specified as less than 1.3.). Enrollment has started in December 2013. As of August 2015, 98 centers in the Japan, South Korea and China are participating in this trial. Clinical trial information: NCT01996306. UMIN000012263. Clinical trial information: NCT01996306.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document