Disparities in cancer premature mortality in Brazil: Predictions up to 2030 and sustainable development goals.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e13614-e13614
Author(s):  
Marianna De Camargo Cancela ◽  
Leonardo Borges Lopes de Souza ◽  
Luis Felipe Leite Martins ◽  
Arthur Correa Schilithz ◽  
Dyego Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Colorectal Cancer Mortality

e13614 Background: Premature mortality affects the economy directly due to the loss of productivity of individuals who decease, thus ceasing to contribute economically to the country. The 1/3 reduction in premature mortality (30-69 years) from chronic noncommunicable diseases is goal 3.4 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Although cancer is a chronic disease, it comprises more than 100 different conditions, with different risk factors and prognosis. This study aimed to calculate current and predicted premature mortality by 2030 for Brazil and regions, compare with SDG 3.4 target and identify regional progress and future needs. Methods: Mortality data were extracted from the National Mortality Information System of Brazil (SIM) and subsequently corrected for ill-defined causes. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants were calculated. NordPred package by software R was used to calculate predictions up to 2030 and compared with the goal of 1/3 reduction of premature deaths. Results: Comparison of observed (2011-2015) and predicted (2016-2030) mortality rates show a 12.0% reduction in the likelihood of death among men and 4.6% among women nationally. Although predicted rates for 2026-2030 are lower than those observed in 2011-2015 predicted number of deaths increases by 75,341 for men and 90,513 for women. Lung cancer mortality rates are predicted to decrease more among men than women, while colorectal cancer mortality will increase for both sexes. Conclusions: The profile of cancer premature mortality is diverse in Brazil. Nationally, only male lung cancer will be close to reaching SDG 3.4 target, endorsing government’s long term efforts to reduce tobacco consumption. Colorectal cancer mortality increases in most regions, reflecting the epidemiological transition. Despite progress in cervical cancer control, it will continue to be a major challenge, especially in the North and Northeast. Our results provide a baseline for public policies for both prevention and access to treatment to reduce premature mortality in Brazil. Differences in cancer patterns show the need to plan and to adapt regionally for each reality.

OP513 Disparities In Cancer Premature Mortality In Brazil: Predictions Up To 2030 And Sustainable Development Goals

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (S1) ◽  
pp. 12-12
Author(s):  
Marianna De Camargo Cancela ◽  
Arthur Correa Schilithz ◽  
Leonardo Borges de Souza ◽  
Luís Felipe Martins ◽  
Dyego Bezerra de Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Colorectal Cancer Mortality

IntroductionPremature mortality affects the economy directly due to the loss of productivity of individuals who die, thus ceasing to contribute economically to the country. The one-third reduction in premature mortality (30–69 years) from chronic noncommunicable diseases is goal 3.4 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDG). Although cancer is a chronic disease, it comprises more than 100 different conditions, with different risk factors and prognosis. This study aimed to calculate current and predicted premature mortality by 2030 for Brazil and regions, compared with the SDG 3.4 target and identify regional progress and future needs.MethodsMortality data were extracted from the National Mortality Information System of Brazil (SIM) and subsequently corrected for ill-defined causes. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants were calculated. NordPred package by software R was used to calculate predictions up to 2030 and compared with the goal of one-third reduction of premature deaths.ResultsComparison of observed (2011–2015) and predicted (2026–2030) mortality rates show a 12.0% reduction in the likelihood of death among men and 4.6 percent among women nationally. Although predicted rates for 2026–2030 are lower than those observed in 2011–2015, the predicted number of deaths increases by 75,341 for men and 90,513 for women. Lung cancer mortality rates are predicted to decrease more among men than women, while colorectal cancer mortality will increase for both sexes.ConclusionsThe profile of cancer premature mortality is diverse in Brazil. Nationally, only male lung cancer will be close to reaching the SDG 3.4 target, endorsing the government's long-term efforts to reduce tobacco consumption. Colorectal cancer mortality increases in most regions, reflecting the epidemiological transition. Despite progress in cervical cancer control, it will continue to be a major challenge, especially in the North and Northeast. Our results provide a baseline for public policies for both prevention and access to treatment to reduce premature mortality in Brazil. Differences in cancer patterns show the need to plan and to adapt regionally for each reality.

scholarly journals Sustainable Development Goal 3.4: Regional disparities in cancer premature mortality in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
M De Camargo Cancela ◽  
L Borges Lopes de Souza ◽  
L F Leite Martins ◽  
A Correa Schilithz ◽  
D L Bezerra de Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Cervical Cancer ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Sustainable Development Goal ◽  
Development Goal ◽  
Colorectal Cancer Mortality

Abstract Background The Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 has a target of 1/3 reduction in premature mortality (30-69 years) from chronic noncommunicable diseases. Although cancer is a chronic disease, it comprises more than 100 different conditions, with different risk factors and prognosis. This study aimed to calculate current and predicted premature mortality by 2030 for Brazil and regions, compare with SDG 3.4 target and identify regional progress and future needs. Methods Mortality data were extracted from the National Mortality Information System of Brazil (SIM) and subsequently corrected for ill-defined causes. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants were calculated. NordPred package by software R was used to calculate predictions up to 2030 and compared with the goal of 1/3 reduction of premature deaths. Results Comparison of observed (2011-2015) and predicted (2016-2030) mortality rates show a 12.0% reduction in the likelihood of death among men and 4.6% among women nationally. Although predicted rates for 2026-2030 are lower than those observed in 2011-2015 predicted number of deaths increases by 75,341 for men and 90,513 for women. Lung cancer mortality rates are predicted to decrease more among men than women, while colorectal cancer mortality will increase for both sexes, in all regions (except in the Southeast). Conclusions The profile of premature cancer mortality is diverse in Brazil. Nationally, only male lung cancer will be close to reaching SDG 3.4 target, endorsing government's long-term efforts to reduce tobacco consumption. The increase in colorectal cancer mortality reflects the epidemiological transition. Despite progress in cervical cancer control, it will continue to be a major challenge. Our results provide a baseline for public policies for both prevention and access to treatment to reduce premature mortality in Brazil. Differences in mortality patterns highlight the need to adapt cancer prevention policies regionally. Key messages Cancer premature mortality decrease in Brazil is expected to occur, but far from the SDG 3.4 target – including preventable cancers as cervical cancer. An increase is expected to occur in colorectal premature cancer mortality rates and strategies to face it need to be developed regionally.

Effect of healthcare fragmentation on breast, stomach, and colorectal cancer mortality in Colombia: A measurement estimated through administrative databases.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e18808-e18808
Author(s):  
Nicolás Rozo Agudelo ◽  
Laura Estefania Saldaña Espinel ◽  
Andres Felipe Patiño Benavidez ◽  
Oscar Andres Gamboa Garay ◽  
Giancarlo Buitrago
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Survival Time ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Administrative Databases ◽  
Primary Tumor Site ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Incident Cases ◽  
Colorectal Cancer Mortality

e18808 Background: Fragmentation in healthcare leads to adverse outcomes in cancer patients. Currently there is no fragmentation measurement that has been acknowledged to reliably assess healthcare fragmentation across different health systems. We aimed to measure cancer healthcare fragmentation through administrative databases in Colombia and to calculate its effect on breast, stomach and colorectal cancer mortality. Methods: We conducted a cohort study based on health administrative databases from 2013 to 2017. We combined data from two Colombian national health databases (Capitation Payment Unit database and Vital Statistics from DANE). We developed an algorithm based on ICD-10 codes and oncological procedures to select incident cases of breast, stomach and colorectal cancer. To measure healthcare fragmentation, we identified the number of providers between the dates of the first and last registered services. For patients who died during observation we adjusted the number of providers for survival time in days, otherwise survival time was set to 31 december, 2017. We categorized fragmentation in quartiles and evaluated its effect on mortality rate by Kaplan Meier estimates. Results: We identified three cohorts of patients based on primary tumor site. Age distribution was similar in stomach and colorectal cancer. Fragmentation measured as a continuous variable has a non-parametric distribution in all cohorts. The median of follow-up time ranged between 2.4 to 4.4 years. All-cause mortality rates were highest in stomach cancer, lowest in breast cancer. When measured as quartiles, fragmentation has a consistent dose-response effect increasing all-cause mortality rates. Conclusions: Healthcare fragmentation can be measured through algorithms applied to administrative databases in Colombia. Fragmentation is a predictor for all-cause mortality across different oncologic populations. This measurement based on real-world national administrative data could be used as an indicator of high-quality oncological healthcare for the Colombian healthcare system.[Table: see text]

scholarly journals How to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals in the field of noncommunicable diseases by 2030, according to research in 49 countries

Public Health ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 13-25
Author(s):  
N. G. Khaltaev ◽  
S. V. Axelrod
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Bronchial Asthma ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Mortality Decline ◽  
Noncommunicable Diseases ◽  
Diabetes Mortality ◽  
Development Goals

Goal. To analyze chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCD) mortality dynamics and associated efforts to reach UN sustainable development goals (SDG) in the area of NCD “by 2030, reduce by one third premature mortality from NCD through prevention and treatment“.Methods. WHO statistics, based on the unified mortality and cause -of- death reports of Member-States countries along with the latest information from global WHO programmes, were used to evaluate NCD mortality trends in 49 countries in 2000, 2010 and 2016 and make comparisons and assessments of different types of community -based, country-wide interventions. Only countries with multiple years of national death registration data and high completeness and quality of cause-of-death assignments were included in the analysis. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, chronic respiratory disease (CRD) bronchial asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) lung cancer and diabetes mortality were analysed in 36 high income countries (HIC) and 13 middle income countries (MIC).Results. The most visible decline was achieved for bronchial asthma 54%, stroke 43% IHD 30% and COPD 29%. Lung cancer and diabetes mortality decline were not statistically significant. Prevalence of tobacco smoking gradually declined in 84% of countries, 55% of countries demonstrated declining prevalence of raised blood pressure. Obesity prevalence was increasing in all countries. CVD and CRD mortality were higher in MIC. HIC better implemented tobacco and diet reduction measures. Same concerns NCD management approach. Air pollution level was higher in MIC.Conclusions. NCD mortality decline is associated with multiple WHO global life style modifications campaigns, global coordinated prevention and control programmes for hypertension, asthma and COPD and WHO developed “best buy” approach. In order to achieve better results in lung cancer mortality together with early detection, more efforts should be concentrated on early diagnosis, strengthening tobacco cessation, clean air and diet actions. Diet and physical activities along with adequate management and patient education remain key elements to improve diabetes prognosis by the year 2030. Air pollution control could also facilitate achievement of the UN SDG 3.4.

scholarly journals MORTALITY RISK OF COLORECTAL CANCER IN BRAZIL FROM 1980 TO 2013

2016 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 76-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronaldo Coimbra OLIVEIRA ◽  
Marco Antônio Vasconcelos RÊGO
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
The Us ◽  
Colorectal Cancer Mortality

ABSTRACT Background - Colorectal cancer is one of the most common cancer worldwide, and variation in its mortality rates indicates the importance of environmental factors in its occurrence. While trend studies have indicated a reduction in colorectal cancer mortality rates in most developed countries, the same trends have not been observed in developing countries. Moreover, trends may differ when analyzed by age and sex. Objective - The present study aimed to analyze the trends in risk of colorectal cancer death in Brazil based on sex and age group. Methods - Death records were obtained from the Mortality Information System of the Ministry of Health. The risk of death and the average annual percent changes (AAPC) in the mortality rates were estimated using joinpoint analysis of long-term trends from 1980 to 2013. All of the statistical tests were two-sided and had a significance level of 5%. Results - Colorectal cancer mortality rates were found to have increased in the last 15 years for both sexes and for all age ranges. The rate ratio (RR) was statistically higher at ages 70 to 79 for men (RR: 1.37; 95% CI: 1.26; 1.49) compared to women (RR: 1.14; 95% CI: 1.06; 1.24). Increases in AAPC were observed in both sexes. Although men presented higher percent changes (AAPC: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.1; 2.6) compared to women (AAPC: 1.2; 95% CI: 0.4; 2.0), this difference was not statistically significant. Growth trends in mortality rates occurred in all age groups except for in women over 70. Conclusion - Unlike Europe and the US, Brazil has shown increases in death rates due to colorectal cancer in the last three decades; however, more favorable trends were observed in women over 70 years old. The promotion of healthier lifestyles in addition to early diagnosis and improved treatment should guide the public health policies targeting reductions in colorectal cancer.

scholarly journals Colorectal cancer mortality in Mato Grosso, Brazil: Spatiotemporal trends

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christiane Maria Meurer Alves ◽  
Vitor Gabriel Barra Souza ◽  
Ronaldo Rocha Bastos
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Mato Grosso ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Spatiotemporal Trends ◽  
Screening And Prevention ◽  
Colorectal Cancer Mortality

Mortality due to colorectal cancer is increasing in Brazil, but an organised approach to screening and prevention is lacking. Considering the importance of this disease, the present study examines recent mortality trends of colorectal cancer mortality in the meso- and microregions in the state of Mato Grosso with the objective of analysing spatiotemporal trends to help guide the allocation of health services related to this type of cancer. Mortality data from the Brazilian national public health system from 1996 to 2015 were analysed investigating spatiotemporal trends using Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) models, a class of Bayesian hierarchical models that rely on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Convergence issues arose with several types of CAR models, but notably not with the linear variant, which models the mortality within each spatial region as a linear function of time. Men and women of all ages displayed higher and increasing mortality rates in the Cuiabá and Rondonópolis microregions. Additional regions of increasing mortality were found for specific age and gender strata. It was concluded that spatiotemporal modelling is a useful tool for the characterisation of diseases, including cancer, which are influenced by several factors and need to be monitored over space and time. The combination of spatial and temporal analyses of mortality shown in this paper unveils important information regarding the small areas dynamics, which may guide discussions, regulation and application of decentralised public health policies.

scholarly journals CALCULATION OF LOSS OF CHILD MORTALITY IN UKRAINE AS AN INSTRUMENT FOR ESTIMATION OF ACHIEVEMENTS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN UKRAINE

2019 ◽  
Vol 72 (5) ◽  
pp. 1145-1149
Author(s):  
Natalia O. Rynhach ◽  
Raisa O. Moiseenko
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Absolute Number ◽  
World Health ◽  
Chromosomal Anomalies ◽  
Under Five ◽  
Development Goals

Introduction: Ukraine has made a commitment to reduce preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years of age, within the framework of the relevant task of the Sustainable Development Goals. For a purposeful and effective struggle, it is necessary to realize the scope and structure of losses. The aim: Identify differences in child mortality rates in Ukraine compared to other countries, to calculate and estimate the number of years of potential life lost (YPLL) due toinfant mortality. Materials and methods: The information base of the study was official data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on the distribution of the deceased by age and causes of death in 2017 and World Health Statistics 2016 data. The method of potential demography was used to estimate demographic losses. Review: In Ukraine, in 2017 the absolute number of years of potential life lost (YPLL) was estimated to be almost 217,000 person-years due to under-five mortality, most of them - more than 179,000 person-years - due to infant mortality. The rest were losses due to mortality within the interval of 1-4 years - almost 40 thousand person-years. 55.6% of all potential life losses due to infant mortality determined Certain conditions occurring in the perinatal period, Congenital malformations, deformities and chromosomal anomalies - 23.4%. Conclusions: Ukraine has significant reserves for reducing under five mortality rates, primarily through minimization of preventable mortality. KEY WORDS: Sustainable Development Goals: Ukraine, child mortality; years of potential life lost, person-years, health-related goals, targets, and SDG indicators Wiad Lek 2019, 72, 5 cz. II, -

scholarly journals Assessing Changes in Inequality for Millennium Development Goals among Countries: Lessons for the Sustainable Development Goals

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fuller ◽  
Dwivedi
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Millennium Development Goals ◽  
Gini Index ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
School Enrollment ◽  
Global Development ◽  
Enrollment Rates ◽  
Development Goals

In 2000, the United Nations adopted the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), a set of eight global development goals to be achieved between 2000 and 2015. We estimated the Lorenz Curve and Gini Index for determining any changes in inequality at the global level with countries as a unit of analysis for eight development indicators (proportion of population undernourished, school enrollment rates, the percentage of women in parliament, infant mortality rates, maternal mortality rates, HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) rates, access to improved water sources, and access to a cellular device), representing one MDG each. All of the selected indicators improved on average between 2000 and 2015. An average improvement in an indicator does not necessarily imply a decrease in inequality. For instance, the average infant mortality rate decreased from 39.17 deaths per 1000 births in 2000 to 23.40 in 2015, but the Gini Index remained almost stable over the same period, suggesting no reduction in inequality among countries. For other indicators, inequality among countries decreased at varying rates. A significant data gap existed across countries. For example, only 91 countries had data on primary school enrollment rates in 2000 and 2015. We emphasize developing a global data collection and analysis protocol for measuring the impacts of global development programs, especially in reducing inequality across social, economic, and environmental indicators. This study will feed into currently enacted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for ensuring more inclusive and equitable growth worldwide.

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