Risk Acceptability Analysis Based on Quantitative Psychology of Intuitive Judgments

2014 ◽  
pp. 240-269
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Psychology ◽  
Intuitive Judgments ◽  
Risk Acceptability

DIRECTIONS OF IMPROVEMENT OF RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM IN THE FIELD OF LOGISTICS ACTIVITIES

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Lytvynenko ◽  
◽  
Taisiya Kozlova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Practical Experience ◽  
Logistics System ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Rational Management ◽  
Enterprise Logistics ◽  
Risk Acceptability ◽  
Logistics Activity

The changeable and unpredictable development of the enterprises’ external environment is one of the appearance causes of various types of business activities' risks, including logistics. The purpose of this article is to develop recommendations on improving the risk management of enterprises’ logistics activities in the context of instability. Achieving this goal requires consideration of the main stages of this process regarding the logistics activities' risks, providing advices on improving the process of risk management of logistics orientation. The article explores the process of analyzing the logistics activities' risks of the enterprise. Proceeding from the theoretical provisions of management and summarizing the practical experience of research in the field of systematic analysis of the enterprises' logistics activities risks, there are traced the organization's peculiarities of such analysis, and the main directions of its further improvement are proposed. All actions in the article, which are related to the analysis of the risk of enterprise logistics activity, are proposed to carry out in a certain sequence in the article. This sequence is given in the form of a structural scheme of systematic analysis of the risks of the enterprise logistics activities. Based on the objectivity of the existence of logistics activities' risks and the need to ensure the rational management of them, the algorithm of the risk management in the enterprise logistics system covers the stages of risks' identification, their qualitative and quantitative assessment, diagnostics, assessment of risk acceptability and application of neutralization measures to unacceptable logistical risks. It is concluded that the logistics activities risks combine different types of risks of all components and elements both in the process of changing material, financial and information flows, as well as in the process of managing the risks arising in the logistics system

The Psychology of Knowledge Ascriptions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikkel Gerken
Keyword(s):  
Mental State ◽  
Dual Process ◽  
Empirical Psychology ◽  
Knowledge Ascription ◽  
Knowledge Ascriptions ◽  
Process Framework ◽  
Intuitive Judgments ◽  
Ordinary Knowledge

Chapter 5 surveys some empirical psychology and outlines some folk epistemological principles. By considering the heuristic and biases tradition, it is argued that ordinary knowledge ascriptions are standardly driven by heuristic processes and, therefore, associated with biases. This idea is integrated with a dual process framework for mental state ascriptions. On this basis, some of the central heuristic principles that govern intuitive judgments about knowledge ascriptions are articulated, and some of the biases associated with these principles are identified. The result is an account of an epistemic focal bias in intuitive judgments about knowledge ascription. Thus, Chapter 5 provides both a survey of relevant psychology and a development of the folk psychological principles governing knowledge ascriptions.

scholarly journals Cognitive Enhancement and Motivation Enhancement: An Empirical Comparison of Intuitive Judgments

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadira S. Faber ◽  
Thomas Douglas ◽  
Felix Heise ◽  
Miles Hewstone
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Enhancement ◽  
Empirical Comparison ◽  
Motivation Enhancement ◽  
Intuitive Judgments

The Twenty-Five-Year FDA Approval Controversy

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Green
Keyword(s):  
Population Control ◽  
Obstetrics And Gynecology ◽  
Marketing Approval ◽  
Approval Process ◽  
Control Programs ◽  
Drug Risk ◽  
Fda Approval ◽  
Political Controversy ◽  
Long Acting ◽  
Risk Acceptability

Judith Weisz's story of the politics of drug risk management shifts its focus to Depo-Provera's lengthy FDA marketing approval process. Here her story explores the scientific and political controversy over the FDA's assessment of the drug's risk and its policy judgments about the risk acceptability of its marketing approval. The controversy was dominated by the fear that the drug could cause breast, endometrial, and cervical cancer, and by Depo-Provera's uniqueness as a long-acting contraceptive and its use in international population control programs. The controversy began when the FDA relied on its Obstetrics and Gynecology Advisory Committee to grant the drug limited marketing approval in 1974, which it withdrew after congressional criticism, and then, following an intra-agency review, disapproved the drug for general contraceptive marketing which, once again, brought congressional scrutiny because of its impact on international family planning programs. An FDA Public Board of Inquiry, convened at Upjohn's request and chaired by Judith Weisz, conducted an intensive scientific assessment of the drug's animal and human studies at its 1983 hearings and then made a recommendation, accepted by the FDA in 1986, to disapprove the drug for general contraceptive marketing.

The Place of Expert Intuition in Philosophy

2020 ◽  
pp. 184-207
Author(s):  
Elijah Chudnoff
Keyword(s):  
Current Practice ◽  
Philosophical Methodology ◽  
Traditional Philosophy ◽  
Standard Picture ◽  
Intuitive Judgments ◽  
Historical Antecedents ◽  
Expertise Defense

The Standard Picture of philosophical methodology includes the following claims: (A) Intuitive judgments form an epistemically distinctive kind; (B) Intuitive judgments play an epistemically privileged role in philosophical methodology; (C) If intuitive judgments play an epistemically privileged role in philosophical methodology, then their role is to be taken as given inputs into generally accepted forms of reasoning; (D) Philosophical methodology is reasonable. Negative experimental philosophers accept claims (A), (B), and (C), but challenge (D). This chapter develops a variant on the expertise defense of traditional philosophy. The defense hinges on denying (C) in the Standard Picture: philosophers do not treat their intuitions as data; they treat their intuitions as observations that can be improved through reasoning. The chapter explores both historical antecedents in the rationalist tradition, and descriptive accuracy with respect to current practice.

Physician judgment in clinical settings: methodological influences and cognitive performance

1993 ◽  
Vol 39 (7) ◽  
pp. 1468-1480 ◽  
Author(s):  
N V Dawson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Critical Evaluation ◽  
Medical Decision ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Cognitive Limitations ◽  
Intuitive Judgments ◽  
Analytical Approaches

Abstract Understanding the quality of physicians' intuitive judgments is essential in determining the appropriate use of their judgments in medical decision-making (vis-a-vis analytical or actuarial approaches). As part of this process, the quality of physicians' predictions must be assessed because prediction is fundamental to common clinical tasks: determining diagnosis, prognosis, and therapy; establishing monitoring intervals; performing screening and preventive maneuvers. Critical evaluation of predictive capabilities requires an assessment of the components of the prediction process: the data available for prediction, the method used for prediction, and the accuracy of prediction. Although variation in and uncertainty about the underlying data elements are often acknowledged as a source of inaccurate predictions, prediction also can be confounded by both methodological and cognitive limitations. During the past two decades, numerous factors have been recognized that may bias test characteristics (sensitivity and specificity). These same factors may also produce bias in intuitive judgments. The use of cognitive processes to simplify judgment tasks (e.g., the availability and representativeness heuristics) and the presence of certain biases in the judgment process (e.g., ego, regret) may present obstacles to accurate estimation of probabilities by physicians. Limitations on the intuitive use of information (cognitive biases) have been demonstrated in both medical and nonmedical decision-making settings. Recent studies have led to a deepening understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of intuitive and analytical approaches to decision making. Here, many aspects of the basis for this understanding are reviewed.

scholarly journals Comparison between seismic and domestic risk in moderate seismic hazard prone region: the Grenoble City (France) test site

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 511-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Dunand ◽  
P. Gueguen
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Local Policy ◽  
Seismic Risk Analysis ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Risk Acceptability ◽  
Social Importance

Abstract. France has a moderate level of seismic activity, characterized by diffuse seismicity, sometimes experiencing earthquakes of a magnitude of more than 5 in the most active zones. In this seismicity context, Grenoble is a city of major economic and social importance. However, earthquakes being rare, public authorities and the decision makers are only vaguely committed to reducing seismic risk: return periods are long and local policy makers do not have much information available. Over the past 25 yr, a large number of studies have been conducted to improve our knowledge of seismic hazard in this region. One of the decision-making concerns of Grenoble's public authorities, as managers of a large number of public buildings, is to know not only the seismic-prone regions, the variability of seismic hazard due to site effects and the city's overall vulnerability, but also the level of seismic risk and exposure for the entire city, also compared to other natural or/and domestic hazards. Our seismic risk analysis uses a probabilistic approach for regional and local hazards and the vulnerability assessment of buildings. Its applicability to Grenoble offers the advantage of being based on knowledge acquired by previous projects conducted over the years. This paper aims to compare the level of seismic risk with that of other risks and to introduce the notion of risk acceptability in order to offer guidance in the management of seismic risk. This notion of acceptability, which is now part of seismic risk consideration for existing buildings in Switzerland, is relevant in moderately seismic-prone countries like France.

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