scholarly journals The Role of Electoral Incentives for Policy Innovation: Evidence from the US Welfare Reform

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 26-57
Author(s):  
Andreas Bernecker ◽  
Pierre C. Boyer ◽  
Christina Gathmann
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
State Legislature ◽  
Electoral Incentives ◽  
Policy Experimentation ◽  
Preferences For Redistribution ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
The Us ◽  
State Learning ◽  
Dramatic Shift ◽  
The New Deal

How do governors’ reelection motives affect policy experimentation? We develop a theoretical model of this situation, and then test the predictions in data on US state-level welfare reforms from 1978 to 2007. This period marked the most dramatic shift in social policy since the New Deal. Our findings indicate that governors with strong electoral support are less likely to experiment than governors with little support. Yet, governors who cannot be reelected actually experiment more than governors striving for reelection. These findings are robust to controlling for ideology, preferences for redistribution, the state legislature, and cross-state learning. (JEL D72, H75, I32, I38)

Anti-System Politics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Hopkin
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Approach ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Us ◽  
Long Term Result ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Dramatic Shift ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Right

Recent elections in the advanced Western democracies have undermined the basic foundations of political systems that had previously beaten back all challenges—from both the Left and the Right. The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency, only months after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, signaled a dramatic shift in the politics of the rich democracies. This book traces the evolution of this shift and argues that it is a long-term result of abandoning the postwar model of egalitarian capitalism in the 1970s. That shift entailed weakening the democratic process in favor of an opaque, technocratic form of governance that allows voters little opportunity to influence policy. With the financial crisis of the late 2000s, these arrangements became unsustainable, as incumbent politicians were unable to provide solutions to economic hardship. Electorates demanded change, and it had to come from outside the system. Using a comparative approach, the text explains why different kinds of anti-system politics emerge in different countries and how political and economic factors impact the degree of electoral instability that emerges. Finally, it discusses the implications of these changes, arguing that the only way for mainstream political forces to survive is for them to embrace a more activist role for government in protecting societies from economic turbulence.

The Liberalizers: Justifying Free-Market Finance

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louçã Francisco ◽  
Ash Michael
Keyword(s):  
Public Discourse ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Second World War ◽  
Economic Regulation ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Second World ◽  
The New Deal

Chapter 5 traces how free market ideology displaced the apparent consensus on economic regulation that emerged from the Depression, the New Deal, and the Second World War. Viewed as cranks within economics through the 1960s, Milton Friedman and his supporters built an apparatus of ideas, publications, students, think tanks, and rich supporters, establishing outposts in Latin America and the UK. When developed economies faltered in the 1970s, Friedman’s neoliberal doctrine was ready. With citizens, consumers, and workers feeling worked over by monopolies, inflation, unemployment, and taxes, these strange bedfellows elected Reagan in the US and Thatcher in the UK and rolled to power in academia and in public discourse with a doctrine of privatization, liberalization, and deregulation. Friedman, Eugene Fama, and James Buchanan whose radical free market views triumphed at the end of the 1970s are profiled. A technical appendix, “Skeptics and Critics vs. True Believers” explores the economic debates.

scholarly journals Analysis of 220 Years of Floodplain Population Dynamics in the US at Different Spatial Scales

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Firoza Akhter ◽  
Maurizio Mazzoleni ◽  
Luigia Brandimarte
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
National Level ◽  
State Level ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Management Planning ◽  
The Us ◽  
Over Time

In this study, we explore the long-term trends of floodplain population dynamics at different spatial scales in the contiguous United States (U.S.). We exploit different types of datasets from 1790–2010—i.e., decadal spatial distribution for the population density in the US, global floodplains dataset, large-scale data of flood occurrence and damage, and structural and nonstructural flood protection measures for the US. At the national level, we found that the population initially settled down within the floodplains and then spread across its territory over time. At the state level, we observed that flood damages and national protection measures might have contributed to a learning effect, which in turn, shaped the floodplain population dynamics over time. Finally, at the county level, other socio-economic factors such as local flood insurances, economic activities, and socio-political context may predominantly influence the dynamics. Our study shows that different influencing factors affect floodplain population dynamics at different spatial scales. These facts are crucial for a reliable development and implementation of flood risk management planning.

scholarly journals Bill Content, Legislative Outcomes, and State-Level Resistance to National Policies

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Timothy Callaghan ◽  
Andrew Karch
Keyword(s):  
Intergovernmental Relations ◽  
State Level ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
State Legislature ◽  
Specific Domain ◽  
Original Dataset ◽  
Party Control ◽  
Legislative Outcomes ◽  
Contemporary United States ◽  
Level Resistance

Abstract Recently, scholars of the lawmaking process have urged their colleagues to devote more attention to the potential impact of bill content on legislative outcomes. Heeding their call, this paper builds an original dataset of over 5,000 pieces of state-level legislation addressing issues that span the ideological spectrum. It compares proposals that challenge the authority of the national government in a specific domain to proposals that lack federalism-related implications and finds that the former, all else being equal, make less legislative progress toward enactment. In addition, it categorizes the measures that resist national laws based on the specific nature of the challenge they pose. Its analysis finds that measures that are inconsistent with existing national law but work within the law’s legal framework make more legislative progress than measures that seek to nullify the national law or that vow not to cooperate with it. It also confirms that sponsor characteristics such as majority status, the number of cosponsors, institutional rules such as hearing requirements, and state-level factors like party control of the state legislature affect how much progress proposals make toward enactment. Thus, the paper demonstrates the importance of legislative content as an explanatory factor and sheds light on the nature of intergovernmental relations in the contemporary United States.

scholarly journals Associations between Google Search Trends for Symptoms and COVID-19 Confirmed and Death Cases in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 4560
Author(s):  
Mostafa Abbas ◽  
Thomas B. Morland ◽  
Eric S. Hall ◽  
Yasser EL-Manzalawy
Keyword(s):  
Functional Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Functional Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Google Search

We utilize functional data analysis techniques to investigate patterns of COVID-19 positivity and mortality in the US and their associations with Google search trends for COVID-19-related symptoms. Specifically, we represent state-level time series data for COVID-19 and Google search trends for symptoms as smoothed functional curves. Given these functional data, we explore the modes of variation in the data using functional principal component analysis (FPCA). We also apply functional clustering analysis to identify patterns of COVID-19 confirmed case and death trajectories across the US. Moreover, we quantify the associations between Google COVID-19 search trends for symptoms and COVID-19 confirmed case and death trajectories using dynamic correlation. Finally, we examine the dynamics of correlations for the top nine Google search trends of symptoms commonly associated with COVID-19 confirmed case and death trajectories. Our results reveal and characterize distinct patterns for COVID-19 spread and mortality across the US. The dynamics of these correlations suggest the feasibility of using Google queries to forecast COVID-19 cases and mortality for up to three weeks in advance. Our results and analysis framework set the stage for the development of predictive models for forecasting COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths using historical data and Google search trends for nine symptoms associated with both outcomes.

scholarly journals Voting Rights for Non-Citizens: The European Multilevel and the US Federal Constitutional Systems Compared

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 392-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Fabbrini
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
Voting Rights ◽  
The State ◽  
Comparative Perspective ◽  
Federal System ◽  
Future Prospects ◽  
The Us ◽  
Comparative Methodology ◽  
Federal Constitutional ◽  
Regulatory Models

Voting rights – Citizens and aliens – European multilevel architecture – US federal system – Comparative methodology – Different regulatory models for non-citizens suffrage at the state level in Europe – Impact of supranational law – Challenges and tensions – Analogous dynamics in the US constitutional experience – Recent European legal and jurisprudential developments in comparative perspective – What future prospects for citizenship and democracy in Europe?

The Effect of New Deal Policies Revisited

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yangyang Ji
Keyword(s):  
New Deal ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
American Economic Review ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Jel Codes ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The New Deal

Abstract Eggertsson (2012, American Economic Review, 102, 524–55) finds that when the nominal interest rate hits the zero lower bound, the aggregate demand (AD) curve becomes upward-sloping and supply-side policies that reduce the natural rate of output, such as the New Deal implemented in the 1930s, are expansionary. His analysis is restricted to a conventional equilibrium where the AD curve is steeper than the aggregate supply (AS) curve. Recent research, however, demonstrates that an alternative equilibrium arises if the AD curve is flatter than the AS curve. In that case, the same policies become contractionary. In this article, I allow for both possibilities, and let data decide which equilibrium the US economy actually resided in during the Great Depression. Following the work of Blanchard and Quah (1989, American Economic Review, 79, 655–73), I find that there is a high probability that New Deal policies were contractionary. (JEL codes: E32, E52, E62, N12).

scholarly journals Fiscal Resilience Building

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (94) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasmané Ouedraogo ◽  
Rene Tapsoba ◽  
Moussé Sow ◽  
Ali Compaoré
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
State Level ◽  
Theil Index ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Revenue Diversification ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Revenue Sources ◽  
The Us ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Revenue Volatility

Does the reliance on diversified tax structure enhance resilience to fiscal risks? This paper gives an answer to this question by proposing a new cross-country tax revenue diversification index (RDI). The RDI builds on the Theil index, and unlike the few existing tax diversification indices, which are constructed only at the state level for the US, is computed at the national level, covering a broad panel of 127 countries over the period 2000-15. We find suggestive evidence that tax revenue diversification reduces tax revenue volatility, thus bringing to the data long-held views about the prominence of tax revenue diversification for fiscal resilience strengthening. While exploring the drivers of the RDI, we find that tax revenue diversification is not just a reflection of economic diversification, but also an outcome of macroeconomic, political and institutional factors. Interestingly, a non-monotone relationship is also at play between the RDI and economic development, with countries’ portfolio of tax sources getting more diversified as their economy develops, until a tipping point, where richer countries start finding it harder to diversify further their tax revenue sources.

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