Surviving the Black Swan Event: How Much Reserves Should Nonprofit Organizations Hold?

Organizational survival is a primary current focus, as the unforeseen economic effects of the pandemic ravage the civil sector. Over time, however, we turn to questions of resilience: How can organizations prepare for rare, but devastating, financial shocks? Three months of funds to cover operating expenses are often described as a suitable savings target. However, organizations differ greatly in their revenue volatility, which suggests that “3 months” may severely underestimate the reserves that certain organizations should hold. We measure revenue volatility and calculate reserve fund targets for 25 nonprofit subsectors, showing sharp differences in optimal savings levels ranging up to 1 year of total expenses. We also explore organizational characteristics associated with revenue volatility. We argue for a resilience strategy that goes beyond optimizing the contents of the revenue portfolio. Funders and nonprofit practitioners should consider the broader context of financial resilience that includes correctly sized reserves as a stabilizing force.

The speed of change and performance risk: examining the impacts of IT spending in the US hotel industry

Purpose This study aims to investigate the impact of the speed of change (trend) in information technology (IT) expenditures on performance risk indicated by revenue volatility in the US hotel industry. Design/methodology/approach To systematically investigate the impacts of IT expenditures on hotel performance risks, this study collects the same store proprietary data of 1,471 hotel properties from CBRE, a leading hotel consulting firm in the USA, from 2011 to 2017, with a total of 10,297 observations. Findings Econometric analyses are performed and results indicate a significant and positive impact of the speed of change of IT systems expenditures on the performance risk after comprehensively controlling for confounding factors following prior research. Originality/value With the increased importance of IT in day-to-day activities, hospitality business owners have started to quickly adjust their investment in IT infrastructure and superstructure to enhance their business performance. However, their fast-changing expenditures may introduce more risks to their businesses based on the speed–accuracy tradeoff, systems theory and the Schumpeterian Growth Model. This study is one of the pioneer projects that ever assessed the impact of IT expenditure and speed of change on performance risks of hotels.

Charter Schools Have Rainy Days Too! But Are They Ready for When It Pours?

Nearly 30 years since their inception in the United States, charter schools are now a well-established educational option for parents and students. Although they are an important education provider schooling more than 3.1 million students nationwide, we know little about their ability to accumulate fiscal savings for weathering rainy days and sustaining smooth service. Unlike most other fiscal savings studies focusing on the unrestricted fund balance, we examine both restricted and unrestricted fund balances across Pennsylvania charter schools, this study’s unit of analysis. Using a Newey-West regression and data spanning the years 2011–2019, we show that charter schools consider all fund balance classifications when making savings decisions; albeit the unrestricted was their primary savings vehicle. Given their limited revenue portfolio, they are left with only a few options for accumulating fiscal savings. Surplus from tuition payments and additional revenues from private funding sources appear as main fund balance boosters. Surprisingly, special education enrollment significantly increases the unrestricted fund balance, a finding that requires further attention from legislators and policy makers. Concerns are also raised about participation in the state pension system as it absorbs a significant amount of slack that otherwise could be used for other purposes. Overall, most charter schools retain inadequate fiscal savings not capable of insulating their operation from revenue volatility and other contingencies. Statutory fund balance minimums and the adoption of formal fund balance policies articulating how savings are accumulated, used, and replenished should, therefore, be considered.

Impact of the volatility of resource revenue on non-resource revenue volatility

PurposeThis paper investigates the effect of the volatility of resource revenue on the volatility of non-resource revenue.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical analysis has utilized an unbalanced panel data set comprising 54 countries over the period 1980–2015. The two-step system generalized methods of moments (GMM) is the main economic approach used to carry out the empirical analysis.FindingsResults show that resource revenue volatility generates lower non-resource revenue volatility only when the share of resource revenue in total public revenue is lower than 18%. Otherwise, higher resource revenue volatility would result in a rise in non-resource revenue volatility.Research limitations/implicationsIn light of the adverse effect of volatility of non-resource revenue on public spending, and hence on economic growth and development prospects, countries whose total public revenue is highly dependent on resource revenue should adopt appropriate policies to ensure the rise in non-resource revenue, as well as the stability of the latter.Practical implicationsEconomic diversification in resource-rich countries (particularly in developing countries among them) could contribute to reducing the dependence of economies on natural resources, and hence the dependence of public revenue on resource revenue. Therefore, policies in favour of economic diversification would contribute to stabilizing non-resource revenue, which is essential for financing development needs.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this topic has not been addressed in the literature.

Effect of volatility of foreign direct investment inflows on corporate income tax revenue volatility

Purpose This paper aims to examine how the volatility of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows affects the volatility of corporate income tax revenue. Design/methodology/approach The study has used an unbalanced panel data set of 129 countries over the period 1981–2016 and the two-step system generalized methods of moment approach to perform the empirical analysis. Findings The main findings are that FDI volatility enhances the volatility of corporate income tax revenue in less advanced economies, but reduces it in relatively advanced countries. The positive corporate income tax revenue volatility effect of FDI inflows is far higher in non-tax haven countries than in tax haven countries. Additionally, FDI volatility exerts a higher positive effect on corporate income tax revenue volatility as countries experience greater dependence on natural resources. Finally, the positive effect of FDI volatility on corporate income tax revenue volatility is further amplified by higher FDI volatility. Research limitations/implications One important limitation of the present analysis is the use of aggregate FDI inflows because of the lack of data over a long period on greenfield FDI inflows and cross-border mergers and acquisitions FDI inflows. Therefore, an avenue for future research could be to explore separately the effect of the volatility greenfield FDI inflows and the volatility of cross-border mergers and acquisitions FDI inflows on the volatility of corporate income tax revenue, when long-time series data (covering many countries) would be available. Practical implications These outcomes particularly shed light on the role of FDI volatility on the volatility of corporate income tax revenue, particularly in countries that are highly dependent on natural resources. Foreign capital flows, notably FDI flows, play an essential role for countries’ economic development through, inter alia, technology transfer, jobs creation and economic growth. Policymakers should aim to attract FDI, while also reducing their volatility, by designing and implementing policies and measures (such as those in favor of business environment improvement, property rights enforcement and political stability) that would assure foreign investors of the continuous high returns of their investments. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first time this topic is being addressed empirically in the literature.

Assessing the progress of exports diversification in Saudi Arabia: growth-share matrix approach

High dependence on a particular category of exports results in fluctuations in income as the price of the export item fluctuates. In Saudi Arabia, a single category of mineral exports forms over 78% of the total exports, exposing the country to revenue volatility. The study aims to assess the magnitude of diversification of the export basket for the country. It uses data from 1984 to 2018 to study the importance of non-mineral exports in total exports. It applies Granger causality, variance decomposition, and impulse response function in the vector autoregressive framework. The study also uses the growth-share matrix to evaluate individual items of non-mineral exports. The results show a long-run relationship with a 1% increase in non-mineral exports, leading to a 0.30% increase in total exports. Non-mineral exports Granger-cause total exports. In the long run, non-mineral exports have a share of 64% of the forecast error variance in total exports. Moreover, a 1% shock in non-mineral exports creates a huge initial impact on total exports. Also, the growth rate of non-mineral products is higher than mineral products. The results indicate the importance of non-mineral exports for a predominantly oil-exporting country. Finally, the study attempts to classify its non-mineral export categories based on growth rates and market shares. Targeted emphasis on export category with a strong growth rate and low market share can be an effective strategy for further export diversification.

Financial Conglomerate Affiliation, Insurance Companies’ Performance, and Risk

This study analyzes the relationship between financial conglomerate affiliation, insurance companies’ performance, and risk. For verification, a univariate analysis was conducted using a propensity score matching technique and an ordinary least squares regression model was estimated. As a robustness check, the Heckman two-stage regression model, which is known for correcting self-selection bias, was also estimated. The main results are as follows. First, as a result of belonging to a financial conglomerate, insurers’ profitability and simple equity ratio are significantly lower than that of stand-alone insurers, while revenue volatility and insolvency risk are significantly higher. Second, statistically significant negative relationships among insurance companies’ profitability, earnings volatility, and insolvency risks are greater if they belong to a mixed conglomerate rather than a financial holding company. Finally, the results reveal that this negative effect is caused by the adverse impacts of equity investments of affiliates owned by insurance companies belonging to mixed conglomerates. These findings indicate that the expansion of affiliates’ shareholding by an insurer can increase fluctuations in the insurer’s earnings by transferring the change in management performance, consequently increasing the risk of insolvency as measured by the Z-score.

Fiscal Resilience Building

Does the reliance on diversified tax structure enhance resilience to fiscal risks? This paper gives an answer to this question by proposing a new cross-country tax revenue diversification index (RDI). The RDI builds on the Theil index, and unlike the few existing tax diversification indices, which are constructed only at the state level for the US, is computed at the national level, covering a broad panel of 127 countries over the period 2000-15. We find suggestive evidence that tax revenue diversification reduces tax revenue volatility, thus bringing to the data long-held views about the prominence of tax revenue diversification for fiscal resilience strengthening. While exploring the drivers of the RDI, we find that tax revenue diversification is not just a reflection of economic diversification, but also an outcome of macroeconomic, political and institutional factors. Interestingly, a non-monotone relationship is also at play between the RDI and economic development, with countries’ portfolio of tax sources getting more diversified as their economy develops, until a tipping point, where richer countries start finding it harder to diversify further their tax revenue sources.