Transport and Energy Demand in the Developing World: The Urgent Alternatives

The appeal of individual mobility provided today by automobiles and light trucks with internal combustion engines, makes transportation the sector most resilient to a fuel substitution away from its dependence on oil. While the number of vehicles per capita and the distance traveled per vehicle are approaching saturation levels in the industrialized countries (IEA 2002), increases in population and income per capita, economic reforms and industry globalization can result in an off-trend accelerated growth of vehicles in the economies in transition (FSU and EE) and in the developing world (China, India and Latin America, mainly). The corresponding world road use energy consumption could reach a 200 percent increase from present levels by the year 2020, instead of an already worrisome “business as usual” projection of 75 percent (BAUER 2003, 2004). This paper analyses the mitigation effect on world oil demand and on its environmental impact that a policy of leapfrogging towards energy efficient internal combustion technologies and/or alternative vehicles – hybrid or fully electric – could have.

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Energies

Grand Transitions ◽

10.1093/oso/9780190060664.003.0004 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 114-151

Author(s):

Vaclav Smil

Keyword(s):

Energy Supply ◽

Internal Combustion Engines ◽

Energy Transition ◽

Internal Combustion ◽

Combustion Engines ◽

Human Labor ◽

Traditional Societies ◽

Prime Movers ◽

Per Capita ◽

Entire Economy

Traditional societies depended on biofuels and animate power from draft animals and human labor. The energy transition reduced biomass fuels to a globally marginal role, as fossil fuel extraction and electricity generation provided abundant and affordable energy. Consequences of this supply were magnified by conversions of fuels and electricity in new prime movers (first steam engines, and then internal combustion engines, electric lights, and motors). Indeed, they have nearly eliminated animate power, resulting in mechanization of agriculture and industrial production, in the rise of mass mobility, and in the deployment of electronic devices throughout the entire economy. Higher average per capita energy supply has been even more impressive when steady gains in conversion efficiency, and the resulting declines of energy intensities of products and services, are taken into account.

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Three municipal solid waste gasification technologies analysis for electrical energy generation in Brazil

Waste Management & Research ◽

10.1177/0734242x19841126 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 37 (6) ◽

pp. 631-642 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Ana Carolina Medina Jimenez ◽

Reynaldo Palacios- Bereche ◽

Silvia Nebra

Keyword(s):

Municipal Solid Waste ◽

Solid Waste ◽

Electricity Generation ◽

Internal Combustion Engines ◽

Combustion Engine ◽

Electrical Energy ◽

Internal Combustion ◽

Electricity Production ◽

Per Capita ◽

Waste Gasification

In Brazil, in 2016, 196,050 tonnes day-1 of municipal solid waste (MSW) were collected, which means a waste generation of 1.035 kg per capita per day. Only 59.1% of the waste has adequate destination in sanitary landfills, whereas the remaining 40.9% has inadequate destination in controlled landfills and open dumps (ABRELPE, 2018). Among all the states in the country, the State of São Paulo has the biggest per capita generation: 2.290 kg. Today, the only waste destination practiced in the country is deposition in landfills, but other possibilities can be considered. Among thermal treatment routes, the gasification of MSW is an interesting alternative to be studied, because of its versatility and relatively low emissions. The aim of this work is to evaluate the potential of electricity generation through MSW gasification in Santo André city, Brazil, comparing three waste gasification technologies: TPS Termiska Processer AB, Carbogas and Energos. These alternatives have operated commercially for a few years, and data are available. Specific characteristics of each technology were taken into account, such as the reactor type and fuel properties. For the electricity production scheme, two energy conversion systems were assumed: an internal combustion engine and a steam power cycle. From the process parameters adopted, the results showed that Carbogas technology, coupled to internal combustion engines, presents the highest efficiency of electricity generation (30%) and also the lowest cost of electrical energy produced (US$65.22 MWh-1) when Santo André’s gate fee is applied.

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Commercial Energy Demand Forecasting in Bangladesh

Energies ◽

10.3390/en14196394 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (19) ◽

pp. 6394

Author(s):

Asif Reza Anik ◽

Sanzidur Rahman

Keyword(s):

Sensitivity Analysis ◽

Natural Gas ◽

Population Growth ◽

Total Energy ◽

Energy Demand ◽

Energy Sources ◽

Per Capita ◽

Business As Usual ◽

Future Demand ◽

Commercial Energy

Although both aggregate and per capita energy consumption in Bangladesh is increasing rapidly, its per capita consumption is still one of the lowest in the world. Bangladesh gradually shifted from petroleum-based energy to domestically sourced natural-gas-based energy sources, which are predicted to run out within next two decades. The present study first identified the determinants of aggregate commercial energy and its three major components of oil, natural gas, and coal demand for Bangladesh using a simultaneous equations framework on an annual database covering a period of 47 years (1972–2018). Next, the study forecast future demand for aggregate commercial energy and its three major components for the period of 2019–2038 under the business-as-usual and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic scenarios with some assumptions. As part of a sensitivity analysis, based on past trends, we also hypothesized four alternative GDP and population growth scenarios and forecast corresponding changes in total energy demand forecast. The results revealed that while GDP and lagged energy demand are the major drivers of energy demand in the country, we did not see strong effects of own- and cross-price elasticities of energy sources, which we attributed to three reasons: subsidized low energy prices, time and cost required to switch between different energy-mix technologies, and suppressed energy demand. The aggregate energy demand is expected to increase by 400% by the end of the forecasting period in 2038 from its existing level in 2018 under the business-as-usual scenario, whereas the effect of COVID-19 could suppress it down to 300%. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the highest increase will occur for coal (3.94-fold), followed by gas (2.64-fold) and oil (2.37-fold). The COVID-19 pandemic will suppress the future demand of all energy sources at variable rates. The ex ante forecasting errors were small, varying within the range of 3.6–3.7% of forecast values. Sensitivity analysis of changes in GDP and population growth rates showed that forecast total energy demand will increase gradually from 3.58% in 2019 to 8.79% by 2038 from original forecast values. Policy recommendations include capacity building of commercial energy sources while ensuring the safety and sustainability of newly proposed coal and nuclear power installations, removing inefficiency of production and distribution of energy and its services, shifting towards renewable and green energy sources (e.g., solar power), and redesigning subsidy policies with market-based approaches.

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