Commercial Energy Demand Forecasting in Bangladesh

Although both aggregate and per capita energy consumption in Bangladesh is increasing rapidly, its per capita consumption is still one of the lowest in the world. Bangladesh gradually shifted from petroleum-based energy to domestically sourced natural-gas-based energy sources, which are predicted to run out within next two decades. The present study first identified the determinants of aggregate commercial energy and its three major components of oil, natural gas, and coal demand for Bangladesh using a simultaneous equations framework on an annual database covering a period of 47 years (1972–2018). Next, the study forecast future demand for aggregate commercial energy and its three major components for the period of 2019–2038 under the business-as-usual and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic scenarios with some assumptions. As part of a sensitivity analysis, based on past trends, we also hypothesized four alternative GDP and population growth scenarios and forecast corresponding changes in total energy demand forecast. The results revealed that while GDP and lagged energy demand are the major drivers of energy demand in the country, we did not see strong effects of own- and cross-price elasticities of energy sources, which we attributed to three reasons: subsidized low energy prices, time and cost required to switch between different energy-mix technologies, and suppressed energy demand. The aggregate energy demand is expected to increase by 400% by the end of the forecasting period in 2038 from its existing level in 2018 under the business-as-usual scenario, whereas the effect of COVID-19 could suppress it down to 300%. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the highest increase will occur for coal (3.94-fold), followed by gas (2.64-fold) and oil (2.37-fold). The COVID-19 pandemic will suppress the future demand of all energy sources at variable rates. The ex ante forecasting errors were small, varying within the range of 3.6–3.7% of forecast values. Sensitivity analysis of changes in GDP and population growth rates showed that forecast total energy demand will increase gradually from 3.58% in 2019 to 8.79% by 2038 from original forecast values. Policy recommendations include capacity building of commercial energy sources while ensuring the safety and sustainability of newly proposed coal and nuclear power installations, removing inefficiency of production and distribution of energy and its services, shifting towards renewable and green energy sources (e.g., solar power), and redesigning subsidy policies with market-based approaches.

Influencing Factors of Commercial Energy Consumption Intention of Rural Residents: Evidence from Rural Chengdu

With rapid rural urbanization and new rural construction, the commercial energy consumption of rural residents shows a trend of rapid growth, and China’s rural areas are also faced with environmental challenges brought by the increase of commercial energy consumption. China’s commercial energy consumption behavior of rural residents has also undergone tremendous changes. However, scholars have neglected the research on rural residents’ commercial energy consumption intention from a micro perspective. Therefore, this study takes the 5 villages in Chengdu out of the 100 representative villages in the Sichuan province as examples. From the perspective of the head of a family of permanent rural residents, extended planned behavior theory, exploratory factor analysis, and structural equation modeling are used to explore the influencing factors of rural resident commercial energy consumption intention and their relationship. Findings show that subjective norm, perceived behavioral control (PBC), and habit significantly affect residents’ behavioral intention. Habits significantly influence subjective norms and PBC. Therefore, in the new rural construction, rural residents are the main body and participants of energy consumption. Local government departments should plan reasonably according to the needs and characteristics of residents, constantly improve commercial energy infrastructure, improve service level, and further strengthen farmers’ attitude and satisfaction toward commercial energy. Moreover, they should increase the publicity and education of commercial energy, advocate green housing, and promote energy saving consumption reduction, and sustainable development in new rural areas.

Biomass-Derived Polymeric Binders in Silicon Anode for Battery Energy Storage Applications

The demand for portable electronic devices has increased rapidly during past decade, which has driven a concordant growth in battery production. Since their development as a commercial energy storage solution...

Training commercial energy users in behavior change: A case study

Within the commercial sector, energy managers and building operators have a large impact over their organizations’ energy use. However, they mostly focus on technology solutions and retrofits, rather than human or corporate behaviors, and how to change them. This gap in targeted commercial sector research and behavioral interventions provides a great opportunity which is currently not being addressed. This paper presents a field research pilot where an empirical behavior change research process was applied and taught to commercial energy users in Ontario, Canada. This course served to fill an identified market gap and to improve commercial energy managers’ literacy in behavioral science theory and techniques. A needs assessment identified a clear gap in behavioral training for energy managers, and high interest in the course further proved out the market opportunity for professional training on how to design, implement and evaluate behavior change interventions. Evaluation results identified positive feedback in terms of course reaction, self-reported learning and behavioral outcomes, and tangible results when course participants returned to work to apply their learnings. Evaluation results suggest that such training fills a vital gap in the current Strategic Energy Management (SEM) landscape, and could unlock significant savings in the commercial energy sector.

Software product to reduce commercial energy losses

The personnel of electric grid companies spend considerable amount of time searching for noncontractual and non-meteredelectricity consumption. The raids carried out by personnel of electric grid companies to detect electricity theft are not always effective, as they are carried out selectively and often do not take into account many factors that could affect the number of detected cases of electricity theft. The article proposes a software product that allows, on the basis ofconsumers’ registration, who have already stolen electricity, have arrears in payment for consumed electricity, made uncontrolled consumption, carry out a process of technological connection or have non-meter accounting, to send personnel conducting a raid to identify electricity theft. It also makes possible to generate the necessary acts, certificates, etc.in real time, which allows staff to reduce the time to fill out paper versions and transfer the necessary documents to the police. The software product allows to increase the efficiency of raids by electric grid companies, by reducing the time of inspections. In turn, the implementation of the proposed software product will allow electric grid companies to significantly reduce energy losses by increasing the territoriality of raids.