scholarly journals Commercial Energy Demand Forecasting in Bangladesh

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (19) ◽  
pp. 6394
Author(s):  
Asif Reza Anik ◽  
Sanzidur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Total Energy ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
Future Demand ◽  
Commercial Energy

Although both aggregate and per capita energy consumption in Bangladesh is increasing rapidly, its per capita consumption is still one of the lowest in the world. Bangladesh gradually shifted from petroleum-based energy to domestically sourced natural-gas-based energy sources, which are predicted to run out within next two decades. The present study first identified the determinants of aggregate commercial energy and its three major components of oil, natural gas, and coal demand for Bangladesh using a simultaneous equations framework on an annual database covering a period of 47 years (1972–2018). Next, the study forecast future demand for aggregate commercial energy and its three major components for the period of 2019–2038 under the business-as-usual and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic scenarios with some assumptions. As part of a sensitivity analysis, based on past trends, we also hypothesized four alternative GDP and population growth scenarios and forecast corresponding changes in total energy demand forecast. The results revealed that while GDP and lagged energy demand are the major drivers of energy demand in the country, we did not see strong effects of own- and cross-price elasticities of energy sources, which we attributed to three reasons: subsidized low energy prices, time and cost required to switch between different energy-mix technologies, and suppressed energy demand. The aggregate energy demand is expected to increase by 400% by the end of the forecasting period in 2038 from its existing level in 2018 under the business-as-usual scenario, whereas the effect of COVID-19 could suppress it down to 300%. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the highest increase will occur for coal (3.94-fold), followed by gas (2.64-fold) and oil (2.37-fold). The COVID-19 pandemic will suppress the future demand of all energy sources at variable rates. The ex ante forecasting errors were small, varying within the range of 3.6–3.7% of forecast values. Sensitivity analysis of changes in GDP and population growth rates showed that forecast total energy demand will increase gradually from 3.58% in 2019 to 8.79% by 2038 from original forecast values. Policy recommendations include capacity building of commercial energy sources while ensuring the safety and sustainability of newly proposed coal and nuclear power installations, removing inefficiency of production and distribution of energy and its services, shifting towards renewable and green energy sources (e.g., solar power), and redesigning subsidy policies with market-based approaches.

Transport and Energy Demand in the Developing World: The Urgent Alternatives

2005 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 825-843 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariano Bauer ◽  
Elizabeth Mar
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Internal Combustion Engines ◽  
Developing World ◽  
Internal Combustion ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Economies In Transition ◽  
Light Trucks ◽  
Fuel Substitution ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Business As Usual

The appeal of individual mobility provided today by automobiles and light trucks with internal combustion engines, makes transportation the sector most resilient to a fuel substitution away from its dependence on oil. While the number of vehicles per capita and the distance traveled per vehicle are approaching saturation levels in the industrialized countries (IEA 2002), increases in population and income per capita, economic reforms and industry globalization can result in an off-trend accelerated growth of vehicles in the economies in transition (FSU and EE) and in the developing world (China, India and Latin America, mainly). The corresponding world road use energy consumption could reach a 200 percent increase from present levels by the year 2020, instead of an already worrisome “business as usual” projection of 75 percent (BAUER 2003, 2004). This paper analyses the mitigation effect on world oil demand and on its environmental impact that a policy of leapfrogging towards energy efficient internal combustion technologies and/or alternative vehicles – hybrid or fully electric – could have.

scholarly journals Future energy scenarios of household in Bhaktapur District

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 36-43
Author(s):  
Yogesh Bajracharya
Keyword(s):  
Total Energy ◽  
Urban Area ◽  
Rural Area ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Energy Planning ◽  
District Energy ◽  
Ghg Reduction ◽  
Co2 Equivalent ◽  
Business As Usual

Energy plays a pervasive and critically important role in economic and social development. So, energy planning is important area of study. For Bhaktapur district energy plan, the survey was done by using the questionnaire. Total of 91 samples from rural area and 112 samples from urban area were taken to prepare primary database. The total energy demand was 952 TJ in rural area and 458 TJ in urban area in 2013. LEAP (Long-Range Energy Alternative Planning System) software was used for energy planning. Five scenarios, Business as Usual (BAU), Reference (REF), Accelerated Growth Rate (ACC), and Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) in REF and ACC case scenarios were developed. Total energy demand in 2030 will be 2,748 TJ for BAU, 3,799 TJ for REF and 6,203 TJ for ACC case whereas total demand limits from 766 TJ and 1,241 TJ in SE4ALL scenario in REF and ACC case respectively. Again the total energy demand for 2045 will be 4,945 TJ, 9,104 TJ and 22,592 TJ for BAU, REF and ACC case respectively. Total energy demand for SE4ALL scenario will be 1,807 TJ and 4,381 TJ for REF and ACC case respectively. The GHG reduction up to 2045 by SE4ALL approach is 1.79 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent in REF and 3.54 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent in ACC Scenario.

scholarly journals Mathematical analysis of a self-service car wash in the aspect of application of renewable energy sources

2021 ◽  
Vol 2130 (1) ◽  
pp. 012004
Author(s):  
M J Geca
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Solar Collectors ◽  
Photovoltaic Panels ◽  
Public Network ◽  
Car Wash ◽  
Self Service

Abstract The paper presents a model of a self-service car wash. Sub-models of water, electricity and natural gas consumption were developed. Heated water is used to wash vehicles and in winter to heat the floor. Electricity is mainly used to power high pressure pumps. The data to develop submodels were based on a time series of 1 year from a 5-station car wash located in central Poland. Chemical consumption and costs were not analyzed in this paper. Generally, this data is quite difficult to access and not provided by car wash manufacturers or owners. The developed model allowed estimating the possibility of using renewable energy sources in the form of solar collectors and photovoltaic panels to balance the energy demand of a car wash depending on the number of washing stands and car wash load. Application of solar collectors allows saving 334 m3 of natural gas per year and 11.2 MWh of electricity in the case of applying photovoltaic panels. The amount of electricity consumed by the carwash is so large that mounting the panels on the whole available area will not provide the required amount anyway. Installation of photovoltaic installation on the premises of touchless car wash is justified in the case of connecting the installation to the public network, which was treated as a battery. The cost of maintaining such a battery is 20% of each stored kWh. As a result of the applied solutions, the CO2 emission will be reduced.

scholarly journals Projection of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions in Coming Decades in Indian Context

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-22
Author(s):  
I. Nawaz
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Indian Context ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2

Every observable movement involves energy. Hence, energy is obviously an important determinant in the development of a nation. To be specific, the standard of living is directly related to the per capita energy consumption in the region. The per capita energy consumption is mostly due to consumption of electricity. Therefore, electric power is one of the key factors in development of a country. The combined effect of population growth and increase in industrial, domestic and agricultural activities are inevitable and the basic reason for the increase in the worldwide energy demand. Particularly in the Indian context, the power demand is likely to increase by 7% per annum in the next few decades; assuming a GDP growth of 9%. The major resources of electricity generation are the conventional fossil fuels: coal, oil and natural gas. At present, 55% of electricity generated in India is from coal. However, use of coal for electricity generation results in increase of CO2 concentration in atmosphere. In this study, an attempt has been made to estimate the increase in CO2 emission on the basis of statistical analysis using the available data of power production and projected population growth.

scholarly journals A Flexible Operation and Sizing of Battery Energy Storage System Based on Butterfly Optimization Algorithm

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 109
Author(s):  
Basit Olakunle Alawode ◽  
Umar Taiwo Salman ◽  
Muhammad Khalid
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Storage ◽  
Total Energy ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Storage System ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Energy Storage System ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Flexible Operation

There is a surge in the total energy demand of the world due to the increase in the world’s population and the ever-increasing human dependence on technology. Conventional non-renewable energy sources still contribute a larger amount to the total energy production. Due to their greenhouse gas emissions and environmental pollution, the substitution of these sources with renewable energy sources (RES) is desired. However, RES, such as wind energy, are uncertain, intermittent, and unpredictable. Hence, there is a need to optimize their usage when they are available. This can be carried out through a flexible operation of a microgrid system with the power grid to gradually reduce the contribution of the conventional sources in the power system using energy storage systems (ESS). To integrate the RES in a cost-effective approach, the ESS must be optimally sized and operated within its safe limitations. This study, therefore, presents a flexible method for the optimal sizing and operation of battery ESS (BESS) in a wind-penetrated microgrid system using the butterfly optimization (BO) algorithm. The BO algorithm was utilized for its simple and fast implementation and for its ability to obtain global optimization parameters. In the formulation of the optimization problem, the study considers the depth of discharge and life-cycle of the BESS. Simulation results for three different scenarios were studied, analyzed, and compared. The resulting optimized BESS connected scenario yielded the most cost-effective strategy among all scenarios considered.

scholarly journals Evolution of Energy Strategies in Turkey: Forecasts by Time Series

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Soner Top ◽  
Hüseyin Vapur
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Greenhouse Emissions ◽  
Increasing Demand

As a developing country with over 70% external dependence on energy, there is an increasing demand for electricity in Turkey. In this study, energy resources strategies in Turkey have been investigated and the historical development of its energy usage was summarised. Turkey's energy demand has increased as a result of industrial development and the various energy sources have been selected in different periods to meet this need. In all periods, fossil fuels have taken the lead in energy production. Although investments in renewable and nuclear energy sources have increased, fossil energy sources will not be replaced in the near future. The future fossil fuel production, the electricity production and the greenhouse emissions have been calculated and interpreted by time series (ARIMA), statistically. The forecasts mainly show that natural gas based electricity generation will decrease to 9.3% and renewable energy based electricity generation will increase to 25.6% in the next decade. It is obvious that the fossil fuels based greenhouse emissions will be 375.61 million tons CO2 equivalent in 2026 and the largest share of this emission will be derived from the natural gas by 66.3 billion m3.

scholarly journals Energy Scenarios of Household Sector In Panauti Municipality For Sustainable Development and Energy Security

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 89-100
Author(s):  
Pramila Dhaubanjar ◽  
Amrit Man Nakarmi ◽  
Sushil B. Bajracharya
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Total Energy ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Animal Feed ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Total Energy Consumption ◽  
Residential Sector ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
End Use

This study aims to analyse energy scenarios of residential sector in Panauti Municipality for sustainable energy development and energy security. This study was done by conducting a questionnaire survey, and was supported by secondary data from various sources. Data analysis was carried out with the help of excel and LEAP software. From the results, total energy consumption of Panauti Municipality is 147 TJ in year 2016 with per capita is 4.72GJ and per capita emission 82kg. The main fuel for consumption in residential sector is firewood with share 44% then followed by LPG with 26% of total energy. Cooking is the most energy intensive end-use, accounting 60% of total energy consumption, followed by animal feed preparation 28%. It was seen that total electrification in all end-use can reduce energy demand by 57% and 35% respectively in AEL and SUD scenario and saved fuel import cost about NRs.235 million. in year 2050. Using nationally available electricity ensures energy security and has co-benefit of emission reduction.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Impact of the Assumed Moment of Meeting Total Energy Demand on the Profitability of Photovoltaic Installations for Households in Poland

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1637
Author(s):  
Natalia Iwaszczuk ◽  
Mariusz Trela
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Total Energy ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
First Year ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
The Future ◽  
Installed Capacity ◽  
The Impact

In this article, the authors analyzed two extreme investment variants considering the installed capacity of Poland’s residential pv installation: (a) pv installation meets electricity demand only in the first year of operation, and in each subsequent year it is necessary to purchase electricity at market prices; (b) installation meets electricity demand even in the last year of operation, and in each previous year, the excess of generated electricity needs to be transferred back to the grid, with the limited (by law) right of drawing it from the grid for free in the future. In the article, a sensitivity analysis was performed, and profitability changes were established based on the NPV value, depending on case (a) or (b). The performed analyses showed that the pv installation profitability should not be analyzed, assuming only one moment when it meets 100% of the household’s electricity demand. It was shown that the choice of such a moment, depending on the value of particular technical and financial parameters, can lead to a change in the NPV value, even over 10%. Although the studies were done for Poland, such an approach can be implemented in other countries.

scholarly journals A Study on Energy Consumption Pattern in Developing Areas of Western Himalayan State

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 903-911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lalit Kumar ◽  
Rajeev Aggarwal ◽  
Parminder Baweja
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Total Energy ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Consumption Pattern ◽  
Daily Energy ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Fuelwood Consumption ◽  
Energy Consumption Pattern

A study was carried out on energy consumption and carbon emission in growth oriented Dharmpur block of Solan district of Himachal Pradesh. The energy consumption pattern revealed that fuelwood consumption contributed highest (80.43%) proportion of total energy mix followed by electricity (11.55%), kerosene (2.87%), dung cake (2.79%), LPG (2.31%) and diesel (0.08%). The daily energy consumption pattern in kg of coal equivalent for fuelwood, electricity, kerosene, dung cake, LPG and diesel was worked to be as 10.09, 1.45, 0.36, 0.35, 0.29 and 0.01, respectively. The per capita annual energy consumption of electricity was estimated to be 160 kWh, kerosene (1.29 liters), dung cake (0.07 tonnes) and fuelwood (0.76 tonnes). Annual CO2 emission from households in Dharmpur block was estimated as 86,603 tonnes out of which 74,275 tonnes (80.64%) was emitted from the fuelwood consumption only. The annual per capita energy consumption from all sources for Dharmpur block was estimated to be 12.5 tonnes of coal equivalent. The per capita CO2 emission from different energy sources in Dharmpur block was 1.1 tonnes.

A Successful Population Policy: Potentials and Constraints (Distinguishedl Lecture)

1993 ◽  
Vol 32 (4I) ◽  
pp. 411-431
Author(s):  
Hans-Rimbert Hemmer
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Capita Income ◽  
Population Policy ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Per Capita Income ◽  
Access To Health Services ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
Per Capita

The current rapid population growth in many developing countries is the result of an historical process in the course of which mortality rates have fallen significantly but birthrates have remained constant or fallen only slightly. Whereas, in industrial countries, the drop in mortality rates, triggered by improvements in nutrition and progress in medicine and hygiene, was a reaction to economic development, which ensured that despite the concomitant growth in population no economic difficulties arose (the gross national product (GNP) grew faster than the population so that per capita income (PCI) continued to rise), the drop in mortality rates to be observed in developing countries over the last 60 years has been the result of exogenous influences: to a large degree the developing countries have imported the advances made in industrial countries in the fields of medicine and hygiene. Thus, the drop in mortality rates has not been the product of economic development; rather, it has occurred in isolation from it, thereby leading to a rise in population unaccompanied by economic growth. Growth in GNP has not kept pace with population growth: as a result, per capita income in many developing countries has stagnated or fallen. Mortality rates in developing countries are still higher than those in industrial countries, but the gap is closing appreciably. Ultimately, this gap is not due to differences in medical or hygienic know-how but to economic bottlenecks (e.g. malnutrition, access to health services)

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