scholarly journals Studying the prominence effect amid the COVID-19 crisis: implications for public health policy decision-making.

F1000Research ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 1356
Author(s):  
Yossi Maaravi ◽  
Ben Heller

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has brought with it crucial policy- and decision-making situations, especially when making judgments between financial and health concerns. One particularly relevant decision-making phenomenon is the prominence effect, where decision-makers base their decisions on the most prominent attribute of the object at hand (e.g., health concerns) rather than weigh all the attributes together. This bias diminishes when the decision-making mode inhibits heuristic processes. In this study, we tested the prominence of health vs. financial concerns across two decision-making modes - choice (prone to heuristics) and matching (mitigates heuristics) - during the peak of the COVID-19 in the UK using Tversky et al.’s classic experimental paradigm. We added to the classic experimental design a priming condition. Participants were presented with two casualty-minimization programs, differing in lives saved and costs: program X would save 100 lives at the cost of 55-million-pound sterling, whereas program Y would save 30 lives at the cost of 12-million-pound sterling. Half of the participants were required to choose between the programs (choice condition). The other half were not given the cost of program X and were asked to determine what the cost should be to make it as equally attractive as the program Y. Participants in both groups were primed for either: a) financial concerns; b) health concerns; or c) control (no priming). Results showed that in the choice condition, unless primed for financial concerns, health concerns are more prominent. In the matching condition, on the other hand, the prominence of health concerns did not affect decision-makers, as they all “preferred” the cheaper option. These results add further support to the practical relevance of using the proper decision-making modes in times of consequential crises where multiple concerns, interests, and parties are involved.

F1000Research ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 1356
Author(s):  
Yossi Maaravi ◽  
Ben Heller

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has brought with it crucial policy- and decision-making situations, especially when making judgments between economic and health concerns. One particularly relevant decision-making phenomenon is the prominence effect, where decision-makers base their decisions on the most prominent attribute of the object at hand (e.g., health concerns) rather than weigh all the attributes together. This bias diminishes when the decision-making mode inhibits heuristic processes. In this study, we tested the prominence of health vs. economic concerns across two decision-making modes - choice (prone to heuristics) and matching (mitigates heuristics) - during the peak of the COVID-19 in the UK using Tversky et al.’s classic experimental paradigm. We added to the classic experimental design a priming condition. Participants were presented with two casualty-minimization programs, differing in lives saved and costs: program X would save 100 lives at the cost of 55-million-pound sterling, whereas program Y would save 30 lives at the cost of 12-million-pound sterling. Half of the participants were required to choose between the programs (choice condition). The other half were not given the cost of program X and were asked to determine what the cost should be to make it as equally attractive as the program Y. Participants in both groups were primed for either: a) economic concerns; b) health concerns; or c) control (no priming). Results showed that in the choice condition, unless primed for economic concerns, health concerns are more prominent. In the matching condition, on the other hand, the prominence of health concerns did not affect decision-makers, as they all “preferred” the cheaper option. These results add further support to the practical relevance of using the proper decision-making modes in times of consequential crises where multiple concerns, interests, and parties are involved.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yossi Maaravi ◽  
Ben Heller

Background: The novel COVID-19 has brought upon crucial policy- and decision-making situations, especially when making judgments between economic and healthconcerns. One particularly relevant decision-making phenomenon is the prominenceeffect, where decision-makers base their decisions on the most prominent attribute ofthe object at hand (e.g., health concerns) rather than weigh all the attributes together.This bias diminishes when the decision-making mode inhibits heuristic processes. Inthis study, we tested the prominence of health vs. economic concerns across twodecision-making modes - choice (prone to heuristics) and matching (mitigatesheuristics) - during the peak of the COVID-19 in the UK using Tversky et al.’s classicexperimental paradigm. We added to the classic experimental design a primingcondition. Methods and Findings: Four hundred twenty participants from the UK wererecruited via a crowd-working platform. They were presented with two casualty-minimization programs, differing in lives saved and costs: program X would save 100lives at the cost of 55-million-pound sterling, whereas program Y would save 30 lives atthe cost of 12-million-pound sterling. Half of the participants were required to choosebetween the programs (choice condition). The other half were not given the cost ofprogram X and were asked to determine what the cost should be to make it as equallyattractive as the program Y. Participants in both groups were primed for either: a)economic concerns; b) health concerns; or c) control (no priming). Results showed thatin the choice condition, unless primed for economic concerns, health concerns aremore prominent (only under economic priming was there a significant preference forprogram Y, p<0.001). In the matching condition, on the other hand, the prominence ofhealth concerns did not affect decision-makers, as they all “preferred” the cheaperoption. Conclusions: These results add further support to the practical relevance ofusing the proper decision-making modes in times of consequential crises wheremultiple concerns, interests, and parties are involve


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Edward Johnson

<p><b>The gold mining industry in Ghana is characterised by complexity in terms of its extended/sequential operations, its system-wide reach, its multiple stakeholders, and the variety of formal and informal organisations that constitute the industry. Perceptions of the industry differ considerably amongst stakeholders, depending on their stakes and interests, knowledge, understanding, involvement and agency within or without the sector. Studies of the industry to date have overlooked these diverse viewpoints and used limited-scope, single-frame analyses. However, they have highlighted wide-ranging industry issues that impact the diversity of stakeholders, which could benefit from a fuller and more comprehensive analysis.</b></p> <p>This study addresses this need by adopting a multi-framing systems-based approach. Data was examined and analysed through a variety of systems-based lenses and frames, including a stakeholder analysis (SA) frame, a causal loop modelling (CLM) frame, supply chain analysis (SCA) frame and the Theory of Constraints (TOC) Thinking Processes analytical frames lenses. First the Current Reality Tree (CRT) tool of the Theory of Constraints (TOC) was used to synthesise information from the literature examined, providing an initial provisional CRT model. Interview data was collected by sharing and seeking feedback to the CRT model at multiple levels of the industry, giving voice to stakeholders throughout the sector. Subsequent analysis used all the modelling frameworks mentioned above in a multi-framing analysis.</p> <p>In particular, the evaporating cloud (EC) tool from TOC was used to structure and develop potential solutions to conflict highlighted by the literature review, the SA, SCA and CLM. Building on this, a final CRT was developed, and a goal tree (GT) used to design the desired future whilst employing the future reality tree (FRT) to test the plausibility of solutions from the EC to deliver the desired future. The prerequisite tree (PRT) was then used to identify obstacles and intermediate objectives that must be overcome for successful transition to the desired future.</p> <p>Insights from the research shows a desire by multi-national large scale-gold mining companies and government alike to minimise adverse impacts and maximise the sector’s outcomes for key stakeholders, including those at the community level. However, the research has documented many instances of actions taken to address issues and improve outcomes that have instead resulted in unresolved dilemmas and paradoxes, failing to achieve desired outcomes.</p> <p>A number of factors have been identified as being responsible for these situations. Key amongst them is a limited understanding to deliver desired outcome for stakeholders without compromises, a focus on short-term goals, no collective effort, and arms-length/win-lose relationships amongst the Ghanaian stakeholders of the industry.</p> <p>The study’s concluding findings and results allow decision makers to benefit significantly from the study through its recommendations and showcasing of tools that may allow them to make sound decisions and address endogenous and exogenous cause-effect relationships limiting desirable outcomes from actions taken.</p> <p>Theoretical and knowledge-based contributions are made by conceptualising and offering evidence for three key factors or dimensions that can explain a significant number of issues limiting desirable outcomes for stakeholders of the gold mining industry. These include difficulty to transition from theory (espoused aims) to practice, a relative focus on local optima (silo thinking), poor monitoring (lack of evaluation), and a control culture. Methodological contributions are made by demonstrating the application of a multi-framing approach in a more organic and iterative manner as opposed to its use in a designed sequence, working down through layers of various systemic levels of an industry (in this case, the gold mining industry in Ghana). By so doing, the study builds on and extends the practicality of the multi-framing approach and stimulates further research in the field.</p> <p>In terms of its contribution to practice, the study provides Government, political and mining sector policy decision makers, and other interested actors, with a platform for understanding the sector in order to support their decision making about the industry to ultimately improve outcomes for key stakeholders. In particular, the study allows mining sector policy decision makers and other stakeholders to recognise complexity, uncertainty and conflicts that are embedded in the mining system and in their everyday decision-making activities about the industry. It also allows these stakeholders to become more aware that such issues can be addressed and improved by identifying and focusing on one or few underlying causes.</p> <p>This thesis draws on systems-based frameworks drawn both from functional management, for example, the supply chain and value chain frameworks of operations management and the stakeholder framework of strategic management, and from the broad domain of systems thinking (ST) and systems-based methodologies; and then focuses on the intersection of these frameworks in relation to the gold mining sector in Ghana. Due to the wide range of techniques applied, none are over-explored, creating potential for further research. On the other hand, with regard to explanations, depending on background, practitioners, and researchers familiar with some techniques may consider those sections over-explained. The researcher has sought a balance for the purpose of this study. Whilst limiting the scope of this work has been necessary in the context of doctoral study, topics ripe for future research are set out in the conclusion.</p>


Complexity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Friederike Wall

Coordination among decision-makers of an organization, each responsible for a certain partition of an overall decision-problem, is of crucial relevance with respect to the overall performance obtained. Among the challenges of coordination in distributed decision-making systems (DDMS) is to understand how environmental conditions like, for example, the complexity of the decision-problem to be solved, the problem’s predictability and its dynamics shape the adaptation of coordination mechanisms. These challenges apply to DDMS resided by human decision-makers like firms as well as to systems of artificial agents as studied in the domain of multiagent systems (MAS). It is well known that coordination for increasing decision-problems and, accordingly, growing organizations is in a particular tension between shaping the search for new solutions and setting appropriate constraints to deal with increasing size and intraorganizational complexity. Against this background, the paper studies the adaptation of coordination in the course of growing decision-making organizations. For this, an agent-based simulation model based on the framework of NK fitness landscapes is employed. The study controls for different levels of complexity of the overall decision-problem, different strategies of search for new solutions, and different levels of cost of effort to implement new solutions. The results suggest that, with respect to the emerging coordination mode, complexity subtly interferes with the search strategy employed and cost of effort. In particular, results support the conjecture that increasing complexity leads to more hierarchical coordination. However, the search strategy shapes the predominance of hierarchy in favor of granting more autonomy to decentralized decision-makers. Moreover, the study reveals that the cost of effort for implementing new solutions in conjunction with the search strategy may remarkably affect the emerging form of coordination. This could explain differences in prevailing coordination modes across different branches or technologies or could explain the emergence of contextually inferior modes of coordination.


Author(s):  
James M. Goldgeier

Decision makers, acting singly or in groups, influence the field of international relations by shaping the interactions among nations. It is therefore important to understand how those decision makers are likely to behave. Some scholars have developed elegant formal theories of decision making to demonstrate the utility of rational choice approaches in the study of international relations, while others have chosen to explain the patterns of bias that exist when leaders face the difficult task of making decisions and formulating policy. Among them are Herbert Simon, who introduced “bounded rationality” to allow leaders to short-circuit the decision process, and Elizabeth Kier, who has shown how organizational cultures shaped the development of military doctrine during the interwar period. The literature on foreign policy decision making during the Cold War looked inside the black box to generate analyses of bureaucratic politics and individual mindsets. Because decision making involves consensus seeking among groups, leaders will often avoid making choices so that they will not antagonize key members of the bureaucracy. Scholars have also investigated the role of “policy entrepreneurs” in the decision-making process, bringing individual agents into organizational, diplomatic and political processes. Over time, the field of policy decision making has evolved to help us understand not only why leaders often calculate so poorly but even more importantly, why systematic patterns of behavior are more or less likely under certain conditions.


2009 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-124
Author(s):  
Chulwon Lee

The future direction of China's approach to energy policy making is, of course, difficult to predict. This is due not only to the opaque and fragmented nature of Chinese energy policy decision-making, but also to the fact that energy policy is a new topic for China's leaders and the individuals they rely on for advice to master that impinges on the interests of actors throughout the Chinese bureaucracy. The wide range of participants in the energy policy debate indicates that more diversified views on it probably reach the top leadership. The impact of the multiplicity of opinions is two-fold. It can result in more informed decision-making, but it can also delay the process as decision makers must assess a larger number of competing and sometimes contradictory views.


2005 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-210
Author(s):  
Marie-José Longtin ◽  
Mario Bouchard

In this study, the authors examine various models for reviewing the system and procedural framework of administrative action in Québec. Firstly, they explore the solutions previously advanced as far as Québec is concerned, then those that have been adopted in other jurisdictions. Next, after identifying the principle decision-making agents of the administration, they enumerate the other factors to be considered in devising a model system, such as the assigned powers of the decision-makers, their procedure, the rules controlling their decision-making, and the establishement by the decision-makers of norms governing the exercise of their discretionary powers. These parameters having been determined the authors go on to evaluate, from various aspects, those solutions that have already been proposed and also others which offer themselves for consideration. In that regard, after discussing the classification of administrative bodies, they analyse the merits of a single or dual jurisdictional authority from the structural and constitutional perspective ; they pause to examine the very notion of administrative authority before going on to deal with the issue of an overall control of administrative bodies, such control being exercised by means of an Administrative Council. Then, after discussing the power given to an administrative body or agency to review its own decisions, they analyse the controversial issue of administrative procedure ant the codification of those rules, and go on to propose, as a possible solution, a flexible codification that is restrictive in part yet adaptable to the individual circumstances of the bodies concerned. In concluding that the existing patchwork of administrative decisionmaking must be satisfactorily resolved, and before indicating what corrective action should be studied, they attempt to identify the questions that have to be answered before undertaking review of the system and procedural framework of administrative action, the need for which review having been seen as imperative right from the outset.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Reda M. S. Abdulaal ◽  
Omer A. Bafail

When decision-makers’ judgments are uncertain, they often express their opinions using grey linguistic variables. Once used, the data often retains its grey nature throughout all subsequent decision-making iterations. Multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) is a tool used when making complicated decisions and in circumstances where several criteria require evaluation to choose the most desirable option. Grey data serves as the basis for several MCDM methods. This paper compares two MCDM methods, Grey-Linear-Programming (GLP) and Grey-Best-Worst-Method (GBWM), in terms of the weights of decision criteria and their rankings. Moreover, Grey-The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (GTOPSIS) was used to rank the weights of the two methods. Study findings demonstrated that GBWM requires more mathematical calculations than GLP, based on linear programming's classic simplex method. On the other hand, when GTOPSIS follows GLP, the alternative rank does not change compared to when GTOPSIS followed GBWM. For the applications used in this comparison, GLP procedure is considered simpler than GBWM procedure.


1983 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 80-87
Author(s):  
S. S. Brand

Private and public decision-making The interaction between the private and public sectors is important in South Africa. Much criticism is expressed by the one sector against the other. This can be partly attributed to an incomplete understanding of the processes of decision-making in the two sectors, and of the differences between them. A comparison is drawn between the most important elements of the decision-making processes in the two sectors. Public decision-making deals mostly with matters concerning the community and the economy as a whole, whereas private decision-making is concerned mostly with parts of the whole. The aims at which decision-making in the two sectors are directed, differ accordingly, as do the perceptions of the respective decision-makers of the environment in which they make decisions. As a consequence, the criteria for the success of a decision also differ substantially between the two sectors. The implications of these differences between private and public decision-making for the approach to inflation and the financing of housing, are dealt with as examples. Finally, differences between the ways in which decisions are implemented in the two sectors, also appear to be an important cause of much of the criticism from the private sector about decision-making in the public sector.


1978 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 345-365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack L. Snyder

Decision makers in international crises seek to reconcile two values: on the one hand, avoiding the loss of prestige and credibility that capitulation would entail and, on the other, avoiding war. These values conflict with each other, in the sense that any policy designed to further one of them will jeopardize the other. Cognitive theory suggests that in ambiguous circumstances a decision maker will suppress uncomfortable value conflicts, conceptualizing his dilemma in such a way that the values appear to be consonant. President Kennedy's process of decision and rationalization in the Cuban missile crisis fits this pattern. He contended that compromise would allay the risk of war in the short run only at the cost of increasing it in the long run. Thus, he saw his policy of no compromise as furthering both the goal of maintaining U.S. prestige and credibility and the goal of avoiding war.


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