Rationality at the Brink: The Role of Cognitive Processes in Failures of Deterrence

1978 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 345-365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack L. Snyder
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Other ◽  
International Crises ◽  
Value Conflicts ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The One ◽  
The Cost

Decision makers in international crises seek to reconcile two values: on the one hand, avoiding the loss of prestige and credibility that capitulation would entail and, on the other, avoiding war. These values conflict with each other, in the sense that any policy designed to further one of them will jeopardize the other. Cognitive theory suggests that in ambiguous circumstances a decision maker will suppress uncomfortable value conflicts, conceptualizing his dilemma in such a way that the values appear to be consonant. President Kennedy's process of decision and rationalization in the Cuban missile crisis fits this pattern. He contended that compromise would allay the risk of war in the short run only at the cost of increasing it in the long run. Thus, he saw his policy of no compromise as furthering both the goal of maintaining U.S. prestige and credibility and the goal of avoiding war.

scholarly journals El impacto de los costes de despido sobre el empleo en España: Una estimación con datos de panel

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Marta Martínez Matute ◽  
Carlos Pérez Domínguez
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
The Other ◽  
Global Effect ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Firing Costs ◽  
Period 2 ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The One ◽  
Firing Cost

This paper examines the effect of firing costs on the Spanish employment. On the basis of a theoretical model with two periods of time and firing costs, a regional dynamic panel data is estimated for the period 2005-2011. According to this model, two opposite effects take place: on the one hand, the presence of firing cost makes the employer more careful to hire new workers in the first period; but, on the other hand, the firing penalty makes the firm more reluctant to reduce employment in period 2. Then, the global effect of mandatory firing costs remains unclear. The main result obtained in our estimations is that higher firing costs would negatively affect employment in the short run, but in the long run this effect vanishes.

ECONOMIC GROWTH OF SELECTED EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES: A MACROECONOMIC VIEW OF THEIR DEPENDENCE ON THE US AND EUROPE

2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (05) ◽  
pp. 1550066
Author(s):  
EU CHYE TAN ◽  
CHOR FOON TANG
Keyword(s):  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The One

This paper aims to ascertain whether direct macroeconomic linkages exist between some East Asian (EA) countries on the one hand and the United States (US) and Europe on the other, based upon quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) series spanning from the early 1990s. Long-run and short-run lead-lag relations are explored within a trivariate modeling framework. Contrary to popular belief, the empirical evidence suggests generally either very nominal or no direct links at all between these EA countries and the US in terms of GDP. Direct links with Europe are completely ruled out. All these would allude to a very limited susceptibility of these EA economies to shocks in the US and Europe, barring a global economic crisis of catastrophic proportions. The growing belief that if China sneezes, the world catches the flu is also not borne out by the empirical results.

scholarly journals Can We Understand Non-Tourism as a Form of Sustainable Tourism? The Role of Lifestyle and Motivations behind Non-Traveling Based on the Hungarian Example

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 7353
Author(s):  
Lóránt Dénes Dávid ◽  
János Csapó ◽  
Ákos Nagy ◽  
Mária Törőcsik
Keyword(s):  
Online Survey ◽  
Sustainable Tourism ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Other ◽  
Market Segments ◽  
Cross Tabulation ◽  
Tourism Potential ◽  
The One ◽  
Unique Potential

This paper aims to study non-travelers in order to try to understand why they are absent from tourism and what the causes are for their decision. Our research showed that the study of postmodern causes apart from classic ones holds unique potential in the research of sustainable tourism processes as well. The results of cross-tabulation and correspondence analysis show that postmodern and classic causes are tightly connected to lifestyle, which represents the central theme of the current study based on the results of a Hungarian representative online survey. A certain limitation is that our research is based on the case of Hungary; however, the introduced methodology can be used in general for identifying and evaluating non-travelers. As research implications, the authors believe that the methodology and results can be used by the actors of the tourism supply market and by decision makers as well, especially for segmenting purposes. If we understand who the non-tourists or non-travelers are, we can, on the one hand, determine the latent tourism potential of a tourism destination; on the other hand, we can also receive information on specific market segments, which could contribute to sustainable tourism mostly because of the postmodern causes for non-traveling.

scholarly journals The Impacts of Globalization on Human Resource Development Management

2019 ◽  
pp. 5-10
Author(s):  
Ali Gunawan ◽  
Stephen Gregorius Kurnia ◽  
Hasan Ghazali
Keyword(s):  
Popular Culture ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Human Resource Development ◽  
Human Resource ◽  
The Other ◽  
Digital Era ◽  
The World ◽  
The One ◽  
The Cost

The terms “Globalization” and “The Digital Era” are familiar words that sound in our ears which mean progress or development.  The term globalization is a term that has links to increase interdependence among nations and people around the world through trade, investment, travel, popular culture and other forms of interaction so that the boundaries of a country become biased.  Globalization can bring about changes in all areas such as culture, economy, social, politics, ideology and so on.  On the one hand, globalization brings with its positive consequences and on the other hand also carries negative sides.  The Digital Era supports the process of Globalization to make it easier to accomplish, which makes it all easy to communicate with anyone and anytime, accessing data and information easily and quickly wherever we are especially supported by the tools of modern softwares and hardwares.  The Digital Era can also develop the capabilities of human resources must be able to adjust to use it.  For human resources who are unable to compete will be replaced with more capable ones.  However, currently Human Resources in Indonesia have not been fully encouraged to enter the Digital Era due to the constraints of several factors, such as the availability of infrastructure, the cost of digital is still inadequate when associated with the number of people with the level education and low technological understanding so they are accustomed to do jobs that do not require special skills.  Here ther role of all groups, communities and governments, to further improve the skills of human resources so as to be able to improve the economy and welfare.

scholarly journals Role of Economic Development and Governance in Mitigating Insurgency: A Case Study of Tripura, India

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Sanjib Banik ◽  
Gurudas Das
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
The Other ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Scale Down ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The One

The purpose of this paper is two folds: firstly, to analyze the short run and long run relationship between insurgency on the one hand and economic development and governance on the other and secondly, to determine the direction of causality between these three variables in Tripura, one of the conflict-ridden states in India during 1980-2005. With the application of auto-regressive distributed lag model (ARDL), an inverse relationship has been established which formalises the descriptive notions about the cointegration between insurgency on the one hand and economic development and governance on the other in the long run. No short run relationship was established between them. Going one step ahead, an endeavour has been made to capture both the economic development and governance as diagnostics for peace in our model. The study suggests that economic development brings down insurgency faster than that of governance. However, improvement in governance is more certain to scale down insurgency. Furthermore, the application of Granger Causality test suggests that there exists bidirectional causality between insurgency, economic development and governance taking 6 lag and onwards.

Migration and US agricultural competitiveness

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip L. Martin
Keyword(s):  
Farm Workers ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Foreign Born ◽  
Guest Workers ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lower Wage ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One

Agriculture has one of the highest shares of foreign-born and unauthorized workers among US industries; over three-fourths of hired farm workers were born abroad, usually in Mexico, and over half of all farm workers are unauthorized. Farm employers are among the few to openly acknowledge their dependence on migrant and unauthorized workers, and they oppose efforts to reduce unauthorized migration unless the government legalizes currently illegal farm workers or provides easy access to legal guest workers. The effects of migrants on agricultural competitiveness are mixed. On the one hand, wages held down by migrants keep labour-intensive commodities competitive in the short run, but the fact that most labour-intensive commodities are shipped long distances means that long-run US competitiveness may be eroded as US farmers have fewer incentives to develop labour-saving and productivity-improving methods of farming and production in lower-wage countries expands.

The problem of woman’s emansipation in the feuilleton “Amazonia: a very inept story” by Mykola Chirsky

2020 ◽  
pp. 71-76
Author(s):  
Iryna Rusnak
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Understanding ◽  
The Other ◽  
Literary Studies ◽  
Ethical Guidelines ◽  
Compositional Structure ◽  
Urgent Task ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The One ◽  
Artistic Heritage

The author of the article analyses the problem of the female emancipation in the little-known feuilleton “Amazonia: A Very Inept Story” (1924) by Mykola Chirsky. The author determines the genre affiliation of the work and examines its compositional structure. Three parts are distinguished in the architectonics of associative feuilleton: associative conception; deployment of a “small” topic; conclusion. The author of the article clarifies the role of intertextual elements and the method of constantly switching the tone from serious to comic to reveal the thematic direction of the work. Mykola Chirsky’s interest in the problem of female emancipation is corresponded to the general mood of the era. The subject of ridicule in provocative feuilleton is the woman’s radical metamorphoses, since repulsive manifestations of emancipation becomes commonplace. At the same time, the writer shows respect for the woman, appreciates her femininity, internal and external beauty, personality. He associates the positive in women with the functions of a faithful wife, a caring mother, and a skilled housewife. In feuilleton, the writer does not bypass the problem of the modern man role in a family, but analyses the value and moral and ethical guidelines of his character. The husband’s bad habits receive a caricatured interpretation in the strange behaviour of relatives. On the one hand, the writer does not perceive the extremes brought by female emancipation, and on the other, he mercilessly criticises the male “virtues” of contemporaries far from the standard. The artistic heritage of Mykola Chirsky remains little studied. The urgent task of modern literary studies is the introduction of Mykola Chirsky’s unknown works into the scientific circulation and their thorough scientific understanding.

THE PECULIARITIES OF CRIME PREVENTION BY OPERATIONAL UNITS IN PENAL INSTITUTIONS

2020 ◽  
pp. 27-32
Author(s):  
Ксения Ивановна Голубцова
Keyword(s):  
Crime Prevention ◽  
Complete Information ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
The Other ◽  
Correctional Institutions ◽  
Meaningful Information ◽  
Penal Institutions ◽  
The One ◽  
Negative Factors

Статья посвящена рассмотрению проблем профилактики преступлений оперативными подразделениями исправительных учреждений (далее - ИУ). Автор, раскрывая роль оперативных отделов ИУ в общей профилактике правонарушений, указывает на ее двоякость, поскольку, с одной стороны, рассматриваемые подразделения обладают значительным преимуществом перед другими службами учреждения в выявлении негативных факторов (негласный метод получения оперативно значимой информации), с другой стороны - далеко не все условия, которые способствуют совершению преступлений в ИУ, можно устранить оперативным путем. Изучение специальной литературы позволило выявить в деятельности начальников ИУ определенные проблемы, связанные с оценкой состояния оперативной обстановки в ИУ, сложившейся ситуации; с отсутствием прогноза развития криминогенной ситуации в ИУ, а также с профессиональной некомпетентностью руководителей, неумением объективно оценивать результаты деятельности структурных подразделений. Автор особое внимание уделяет анализу статистических данных о совершенных и предотвращенных преступлениях лицами, находящимися в местах лишения свободы. The article is devoted to the consideration of problems of crime prevention by operational units of correctional institutions (hereinafter referred to as IA). The author, revealing the role of the operational departments of the IA in the general prevention of offences, points to its twofold. On the one hand, the units under consideration have significant advantages over other services of the institution in identifying negative factors (these are tacit methods of obtaining promptly meaningful information). On the other hand, not all conditions conducive to the commission of crimes in IA can be eliminated by operational means: For example, shortcomings in the activities of other departments and services (security department, duty shift, etc.). The study of special literature has made it possible to identify problems in the activities of heads of correctional institutions in the sphere of implementation of solutions in case of lack of objective and complete information on the state of the operational situation in IA, the current situation, the results of the activities of structural subdivisions; No forecast of the development of the crime situation in IE; Professional incompetence of managers, inability to objectively assess the results of activities of structural subdivisions. The author pays particular attention to the analysis of statistics on crimes committed and prevented by persons in detention.

JOHN JOHNSONS LETTERS: THE ACCOUNTING ROLE OF TUDOR MERCHANTS' CORRESPONDENCE

1998 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Oldroyd
Keyword(s):  
Time Delays ◽  
The Other ◽  
Business Decisions ◽  
Accounting Systems ◽  
Agency Relationships ◽  
The One

This article examines the role that correspondence played in the accounting systems of Tudor merchants. Merchants relied heavily on letters as a means of controlling their businesses at a distance by making agents accountable. Written accountability, as well as information for business decisions, was encouraged by agency relationships in mercantile enterprises. The system could be undermined by the breakdown of communication through the negligence of a factor or the lack of involvement by the principal. The time delays between the sending and the receipt of letters, on the one hand, and the procurement and conveyance of goods, on the other, were additional problems.

Metaphor, Cognition, Culture

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zoltán Kövecses
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Metaphor ◽  
The Other ◽  
Conceptual Metaphor Theory ◽  
Conceptual Metaphors ◽  
Culture And Cognition ◽  
Metaphor Theory ◽  
The One ◽  
Cultural Reality ◽  
Metaphor And Metonymy

The chapter reports on work concerned with the issue of how conceptual metaphor theory (CMT) functions as a link between culture and cognition. Three large areas are investigated to this effect. First, work on the interaction between conceptual metaphors, on the one hand, and folk and expert theories of emotion, on the other, is surveyed. Second, the issue of metaphorical universality and variation is addressed, together with that of the function of embodiment in metaphor. Third, a contextualist view of conceptual metaphors is proposed. The discussion of these issues leads to a new and integrated understanding of the role of metaphor and metonymy in creating cultural reality and that of metaphorical variation across and within cultures, as well as individuals.

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