scholarly journals Insights from quantitative analysis and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goals for soil-transmitted helminths

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 1632 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Guidelines ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Infection Intensity ◽  
Preschool Age ◽  
Diagnostic Methods ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Reproductive Age ◽  
World Health ◽  
Soil Transmitted Helminths ◽  
The Impact

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a group of parasitic worms that infect humans, causing a wide spectrum of disease, notably anaemia, growth retardation, and delayed cognitive development. The three main STHs are Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm (Necator americanus and Ancylostoma duodenale). Approximately 1.5 billion people are infected with STHs worldwide. The World Health Organization goal for 2030 is morbidity control, defined as reaching <2% prevalence of medium-to-high intensity infections in preschool-age children and school-age children (SAC). Treatment guidelines for achieving this goal have been recommended. The Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical and statistical models to quantify, predict, and evaluate the impact of control measures on STHs. These models show that the morbidity target can be achieved following current guidelines in moderate prevalence settings (20-50% in SAC). In high prevalence settings, semi-annual preventive chemotherapy (PC) ideally including adults, or at least women of reproductive age, is required. For T. trichiura, dual therapy with albendazole and ivermectin is required. In general, stopping PC is not possible without infection resurgence, unless effective measures for improved access to water, hygiene, and sanitation have been implemented, or elimination of transmission has been achieved. Current diagnostic methods are based on egg counts in stool samples, but these are known to have poor sensitivity at low prevalence levels. A target threshold for novel, more sensitive diagnostics should be defined relative to currently preferred diagnostics (Kato-Katz). Our analyses identify the extent of systematic non-access to treatment and the individual patterns of compliance over multiple rounds of treatment as the biggest unknowns and the main impediment to reaching the target. Moreover, the link between morbidity and infection intensity has not been fully elucidated. By providing more insights on all the above, we aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for STHs.

scholarly journals Insights from quantitative analysis and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goals for soil-transmitted helminths

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 1632
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Guidelines ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Infection Intensity ◽  
Preschool Age ◽  
Diagnostic Methods ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Reproductive Age ◽  
World Health ◽  
Soil Transmitted Helminths ◽  
The Impact

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a group of parasitic worms that infect humans, causing a wide spectrum of disease, notably anaemia, growth retardation, and delayed cognitive development. The three main STHs are Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm (Necator americanus and Ancylostoma duodenale). Approximately 1.5 billion people are infected with STHs worldwide. The World Health Organization goal for 2030 is morbidity control, defined as reaching <2% prevalence of medium-to-high intensity infections in preschool-age children and school-age children (SAC). Treatment guidelines for achieving this goal have been recommended. The Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical and statistical models to quantify, predict, and evaluate the impact of control measures on STHs. These models show that the morbidity target can be achieved following current guidelines in moderate prevalence settings (20-50% in SAC). In high prevalence settings, semi-annual preventive chemotherapy (PC) ideally including adults, or at least women of reproductive age, is required. For T. trichiura, dual therapy with albendazole and ivermectin is required. In general, stopping PC is not possible without infection resurgence, unless effective measures for improved access to water, hygiene, and sanitation have been implemented, or elimination of transmission has been achieved. Current diagnostic methods are based on egg counts in stool samples, but these are known to have poor sensitivity at low prevalence levels. A target threshold for novel, more sensitive diagnostics should be defined relative to currently preferred diagnostics (Kato-Katz). Our analyses identify the extent of systematic non-access to treatment and the individual patterns of compliance over multiple rounds of treatment as the biggest unknowns and the main impediment to reaching the target. Moreover, the link between morbidity and infection intensity has not been fully elucidated. By providing more insights on all the above, we aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for STHs.

scholarly journals Deworming women of reproductive age during adolescence and pregnancy: what is the impact on morbidity from soil-transmitted helminths infection?

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolin Vegvari ◽  
Federica Giardina ◽  
Sumali Bajaj ◽  
Veronica Malizia ◽  
Robert J. Hardwick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Adolescent Girls ◽  
Egg Production ◽  
Reproductive Age ◽  
World Health ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Women Of Reproductive Age ◽  
Soil Transmitted Helminths ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Pregnancy And Lactation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a major cause of poor health in low- and middle-income countries. In particular, hookworm is known to cause anaemia in children and women of reproductive age (WRA). One goal of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) 2030 roadmap for neglected tropical diseases is to reduce STH-related morbidity in WRA. As a minimal intervention, the WHO recommends deworming adolescent girls annually during human papilloma virus vaccination programmes and WRA during pregnancy and lactation. These routine interventions are low cost and can be implemented even by the most basic health services in endemic countries. In this study we use a cohort model to investigate the potential impact on STH-related morbidity in WRA. Results Annual deworming treatment of adolescent girls reduces the prevalence of moderate- and heavy-intensity infections in this age group by up to 60% in moderate transmission settings and by 12–27% in high transmission settings. Treatment of WRA during pregnancy and lactation on its own has a small (< 20%) but significant effect on morbidity although it does not lead to the achievement of the morbidity target (< 2% moderate- to high-intensity infections) in this age group. However, depending on the age-intensity profile of infection, which may vary geographically, and assumptions on the density-dependence of egg production by fertilised female worms, continued school-based treatment may be able to reduce the force of infection acting on WRA, both through an indirect effect on the overall population-based force of infection and via reducing the burden of infection as children age and move into the WRA age classes. As a result, morbidity in WRA may be eliminated. Conclusion While deworming during pregnancy and lactation does not lead to the achievement of the morbidity target in WRA and its efficacy may vary by setting, it is still expected to be beneficial for maternity and child health. Monitoring of any WRA-based intervention is recommended to evaluate its effectiveness.

scholarly journals Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goal for schistosomiasis

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 1517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Guidelines ◽  
Neglected Tropical Diseases ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
School Aged Children ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Current Guidelines

Schistosomiasis remains one of the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) impacting millions of people around the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently proposed a goal of elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) for schistosomiasis to be reached by 2030. Current WHO treatment guidelines for achieving EPHP focus on targeting school-aged children. The NTD Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical models to study schistosomiasis transmission dynamics and the impact of control measures. Our modelling insights on Schistosoma mansoni have shown that EPHP is likely to be attainable in low to moderate prevalence settings using the current guidelines. However, as prevalence rises within higher settings, EPHP is less likely to be achieved unless both school-aged children and adults are treated (with coverage levels increasing with the adult burden of infection). We highlight the challenges that are faced by treatment programmes, such as non-adherence to treatment and resurgence, which can hinder progress towards achieving and maintaining EPHP. Additionally, even though EPHP may be reached, prevalence can still be high due to persisting infections. Therefore, without elimination of transmission, treatment will likely have to continue to maintain EPHP. Further modelling work is being carried out, including extending our results to S. haematobium. By providing these modelling insights, we aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for schistosomiasis.

scholarly journals Deworming women of reproductive age during adolescence and pregnancy: what is the impact on morbidity from soil-transmitted helminths infection?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolin Vegvari ◽  
Federica Giardina ◽  
Sumali Bajaj ◽  
Veronica Malizia ◽  
Robert J. Hardwick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Adolescent Girls ◽  
Egg Production ◽  
Reproductive Age ◽  
World Health ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Women Of Reproductive Age ◽  
Soil Transmitted Helminths ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Pregnancy And Lactation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a major cause of poor health in low- and middle-income countries. In particular, hookworm is known to cause anaemia in children and women of reproductive age (WRA). One goal of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) 2030 roadmap for neglected tropical diseases is to reduce STH-related morbidity in WRA. As a minimal intervention the WHO recommends deworming adolescent girls annually during human papilloma virus vaccination programmes and women of reproductive age (WRA) during pregnancy and lactation. These routine interventions are low cost can be implemented even from the most basic health services in endemic countries. In this study we use a cohort model to investigate the potential impact on STH-related morbidity in WRA.Results: Annual deworming treatment of adolescent girls reduces the prevalence of moderate- and heavy-intensity infections in this age group by up to 60% in moderate transmission settings and by 12-27% in high-transmission settings. Treatment of WRA during pregnancy and lactation on its own has a small (<20%) but significant effect on morbidity although it does not lead to the achievement of the morbidity target (<2% moderate-to-high intensity infections) in this age group. However, depending on the age-intensity profile of infection, which may vary geographically, and assumptions on the density-dependence of egg production by fertilised female worms, continued school-based treatment may be able to reduce the force of infection acting on WRA, both through an indirect effect on the overall population based force of infection and via reducing the burden of infection as children age and move into the WRA age classes. As a result, morbidity in WRA may be eliminated.Conclusion: While deworming during pregnancy and lactation does not lead to the achievement of the morbidity target in WRA and its efficacy may vary by setting, it is still expected to be beneficial for maternity and child health. Monitoring of any WRA-based intervention is recommended to evaluate its effectiveness.

scholarly journals Deworming women of reproductive age during adolescence and pregnancy: what is the impact on morbidity from soil-transmitted helminths infection?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolin Vegvari ◽  
Federica Giardina ◽  
Sumali Bajaj ◽  
Veronica Malizia ◽  
Robert J. Hardwick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Adolescent Girls ◽  
Egg Production ◽  
Reproductive Age ◽  
World Health ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Women Of Reproductive Age ◽  
Soil Transmitted Helminths ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Pregnancy And Lactation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a major cause of poor health in low- and middle-income countries. In particular, hookworm is known to cause anaemia in children and women of reproductive age (WRA). One goal of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) 2030 roadmap for neglected tropical diseases is to reduce STH-related morbidity in WRA. As a minimal intervention the WHO recommends deworming adolescent girls annually during human papilloma virus vaccination programmes and women of reproductive age (WRA) during pregnancy and lactation. These routine interventions are low cost can be implemented even from the most basic health services in endemic countries. In this study we use a cohort model to investigate the potential impact on STH-related morbidity in WRA.Results: Annual deworming treatment of adolescent girls reduces the prevalence of M&HI infections in this age group by up to 60% in moderate transmission settings and by 12-27% in high-transmission settings. Treatment of WRA during pregnancy and lactation on its own has a small but significant effect on morbidity although it does not lead to the achievement of the morbidity target (<2% moderate-to-high intensity infections) in this age group. However, depending on the age-intensity profile of infection, which may vary geographically, and assumptions on the density-dependence of egg production by fertilised female worms, continued school-based treatment may be able to reduce the force of infection acting on WRA, both through an indirect effect on the overall population based force of infection and via reducing the burden of infection as children age and move into the WRA age classes. As a result, morbidity in WRA may be eliminated.Conclusion: While deworming during pregnancy and lactation does not lead to the achievement of the morbidity target in WRA and its efficacy may vary by setting, it is still expected to be beneficial for maternity and child health. Monitoring of any WRA-based intervention is recommended to evaluate its effectiveness.

scholarly journals Deworming Women of Reproductive Age During Adolescence and Pregnancy: What is the Impact on Morbidity From Soil-transmitted Helminths Infection?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolin Vegvari ◽  
Federica Giardina ◽  
Sumali Bajaj ◽  
Veronica Malizia ◽  
Robert J. Hardwick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Adolescent Girls ◽  
Egg Production ◽  
Reproductive Age ◽  
World Health ◽  
School Age ◽  
Women Of Reproductive Age ◽  
Soil Transmitted Helminths ◽  
Force Of Infection ◽  
Pregnancy And Lactation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a major cause of poor health in low- and middle-income countries. In particular, hookworm is known to cause anaemia in children and women of reproductive age (WRA). One goal of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) 2030 roadmap for neglected tropical diseases is to reduce STH-related morbidity in WRA. As a minimal intervention the WHO recommends deworming adolescent girls annually during human papilloma virus vaccination programmes and women of reproductive age (WRA) during pregnancy and lactation. These routine interventions are low cost can be implemented even from the most basic health services in endemic countries. In this study we use a cohort model to investigate the potential impact on STH-related morbidity in WRA.Results: We find that annual deworming of adolescent girls reduces morbidity in a similar way treatment programmes for pre-school-age and school-age children (pSAC and SAC). Treatment of WRA during pregnancy and lactation on its own has a small but significant effect on morbidity although it does not achieve the morbidity target (<2% moderate-to-high intensity infections) in this age group. However, depending on the age-intensity profile of infection, which may vary geographically, and assumptions on the density-dependence of egg production by fertilised female worms, continued school-based treatment may be able to reduce the force of infection acting on WRA, both through an indirect effect on the overall population based force of infection and via reducing the burden of infection as children age and move into the WRA age classes. As a result, morbidity in WRA may be eliminated.Conclusion: While deworming during pregnancy and lactation does not achieve the morbidity target in WRA and its efficacy may vary by setting, it is still expected to be beneficial for maternity and child health. Monitoring of any WRA-based intervention is recommended to evaluate its effectiveness.

scholarly journals Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goal for schistosomiasis

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 1517
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Guidelines ◽  
Neglected Tropical Diseases ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
School Aged Children ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Schistosomiasis remains one of the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) impacting millions of people around the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently proposed a goal of elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) for schistosomiasis to be reached by 2030. Current WHO treatment guidelines for achieving EPHP focus on targeting school-aged children. The NTD Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical models to study schistosomiasis transmission dynamics and the impact of control measures. Our modelling insights on Schistosoma mansoni have shown that EPHP is likely to be attainable in low to moderate prevalence settings using the current guidelines. However, as prevalence rises within high prevalence settings, EPHP is less likely to be achieved unless both school-aged children and adults are treated (with coverage levels increasing with the adult burden of infection). We highlight the challenges that are faced by treatment programmes, such as non-adherence to treatment and resurgence, which can hinder progress towards achieving and maintaining EPHP. Additionally, even though EPHP may be reached, prevalence can still be high due to persisting infections. Therefore, without interruption of transmission, treatment will likely have to continue to maintain EPHP. Further modelling work is being carried out, including extending our results to S. haematobium. By providing these modelling insights, we aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for schistosomiasis.

Characterizing the effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation measures: A data-centric approach (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman Olagoke ◽  
Ahmet E. Topcu
Keyword(s):  
Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
The World ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND COVID-19 represents a serious threat to both national health and economic systems. To curb this pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a series of COVID-19 public safety guidelines. Different countries around the world initiated different measures in line with the WHO guidelines to mitigate and investigate the spread of COVID-19 in their territories. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of these control measures using a data-centric approach. METHODS We begin with a simple text analysis of coronavirus-related articles and show that reports on similar outbreaks in the past strongly proposed similar control measures. This reaffirms the fact that these control measures are in order. Subsequently, we propose a simple performance statistic that quantifies general performance and performance under the different measures that were initiated. A density based clustering of based on performance statistic was carried out to group countries based on performance. RESULTS The performance statistic helps evaluate quantitatively the impact of COVID-19 control measures. Countries tend show variability in performance under different control measures. The performance statistic has negative correlation with cases of death which is a useful characteristics for COVID-19 control measure performance analysis. A web-based time-line visualization that enables comparison of performances and cases across continents and subregions is presented. CONCLUSIONS The performance metric is relevant for the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 control measures. This can help caregivers and policymakers identify effective control measures and reduce cases of death due to COVID-19. The interactive web visualizer provides easily digested and quick feedback to augment decision-making processes in the COVID-19 response measures evaluation. CLINICALTRIAL Not Applicable

scholarly journals Investigating the effectiveness of re-opening policies before vaccination during a pandemic: SD modelling research based on COVID-19 in Wuhan

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Qian ◽  
Wei Xie ◽  
Jidi Zhao ◽  
Ming Xue ◽  
Shiyong Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Simulation ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Infection Prevention And Control ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Medical Resources ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels

Abstract Background Lockdown policies were widely adopted during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic to control the spread of the virus before vaccines became available. These policies had significant economic impacts and caused social disruptions. Early re-opening is preferable, but it introduces the risk of a resurgence of the epidemic. Although the World Health Organization has outlined criteria for re-opening, decisions on re-opening are mainly based on epidemiologic criteria. To date, the effectiveness of re-opening policies remains unclear. Methods A system dynamics COVID-19 model, SEIHR(Q), was constructed by integrating infection prevention and control measures implemented in Wuhan into the classic SEIR epidemiological model and was validated with real-world data. The input data were obtained from official websites and the published literature. Results The simulation results showed that track-and-trace measures had significant effects on the level of risk associated with re-opening. In the case of Wuhan, where comprehensive contact tracing was implemented, there would have been almost no risk associated with re-opening. With partial contact tracing, re-opening would have led to a minor second wave of the epidemic. However, if only limited contact tracing had been implemented, a more severe second outbreak of the epidemic would have occurred, overwhelming the available medical resources. If the ability to implement a track-trace-quarantine policy is fixed, the epidemiological criteria need to be further taken into account. The model simulation revealed different levels of risk associated with re-opening under different levels of track-and-trace ability and various epidemiological criteria. A matrix was developed to evaluate the effectiveness of the re-opening policies. Conclusions The SEIHR(Q) model designed in this study can quantify the impact of various re-opening policies on the spread of COVID-19. Integrating epidemiologic criteria, the contact tracing policy, and medical resources, the model simulation predicts whether the re-opening policy is likely to lead to a further outbreak of the epidemic and provides evidence-based support for decisions regarding safe re-opening during an ongoing epidemic. Keyords COVID-19; Risk of re-opening; Effectiveness of re-opening policies; IPC measures; SD modelling.

scholarly journals Stimulation and Development of Intellectual Abilities in Preschool-Age Children

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Ľubomíra Valovičová ◽  
Jana Trníková ◽  
Eva Sollárová ◽  
Boris Katrušín
Keyword(s):  
School Readiness ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Preschool Age ◽  
Scientific Programme ◽  
Physics Teaching ◽  
Psychological Variables ◽  
Intellectual Abilities ◽  
Preschool Age Children ◽  
Intellectual Level ◽  
The Impact

The paper is focused on the investigation of impact of created experimental natural scientific programme for preschool-age children. Our programme concentrates on physics teaching adapted for preschool age in which children have possibilities to make experiments themselves—empirical cognition. Its innovation with respect to other stimulation programmes implemented in the past consists of including connection and thus developing a wide spectrum of intellectual abilities. Primarily, we are focusing on the impact of stimulation programme research on selected psychological variables, specifically intellectual abilities—intellectual maturity. Its second aim is to compare and test the validity of drawing tests designed for intellectual-level investigation of preschool-age children, school maturity, and school readiness. The obtained results do not provide evidence in support of the stimulation programme on developing intellectual/conceptual maturity. The results of the second part of the research (i.e., drawing) shows that the indicative level of intellect, perception, and motor maturity are closely related.

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