scholarly journals Testing and tracking in the UK: A dynamic causal modelling study

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 144
Author(s):  
Karl J. Friston ◽  
Thomas Parr ◽  
Peter Zeidman ◽  
Adeel Razi ◽  
Guillaume Flandin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Parameters ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Causal Modelling ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Serological Studies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Dynamic Causal Model ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Face Validation ◽  
Dynamic Causal Modelling

By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal modelling of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we were able to model the effects of self-isolation consequent on testing and tracking. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by people who believe they might be infected but are asymptomatic—and could only leave if they test negative. We recovered maximum posteriori estimates of the model parameters using time series of new cases, daily deaths, and tests for the UK. These parameters were used to simulate the trajectory of the outbreak in the UK over an 18-month period. Several clear-cut conclusions emerged from these simulations. For example, under plausible (graded) relaxations of social distancing, a rebound of infections is highly unlikely. The emergence of a second wave depends almost exclusively on the rate at which we lose immunity, inherited from the first wave. There exists no testing strategy that can attenuate mortality rates, other than by deferring or delaying a second wave. A testing and tracking policy—implemented at the present time—will defer any second wave beyond a time horizon of 18 months. Crucially, this deferment is within current testing capabilities (requiring an efficacy of tracing and tracking of about 20% of asymptomatic infected cases, with 50,000 tests per day). These conclusions are based upon a dynamic causal model for which we provide some construct and face validation—using a comparative analysis of the United Kingdom and Germany, supplemented with recent serological studies.

scholarly journals Testing and tracking in the UK: A dynamic causal modelling study

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl J. Friston ◽  
Thomas Parr ◽  
Peter Zeidman ◽  
Adeel Razi ◽  
Guillaume Flandin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Parameters ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Causal Modelling ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Serological Studies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Dynamic Causal Model ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Face Validation ◽  
Dynamic Causal Modelling

By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal modelling of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we were able to model the effects of self-isolation consequent on testing and tracking. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by people who believe they might be infected but are asymptomatic—and could only leave if they test negative. We recovered maximum posteriori estimates of the model parameters using time series of new cases, daily deaths, and tests for the UK. These parameters were used to simulate the trajectory of the outbreak in the UK over an 18-month period. Several clear-cut conclusions emerged from these simulations. For example, under plausible (graded) relaxations of social distancing, a rebound of infections is highly unlikely. The emergence of a second wave depends almost exclusively on the rate at which we lose immunity, inherited from the first wave. There exists no testing strategy that can attenuate mortality rates, other than by deferring or delaying a second wave. A testing and tracking policy—implemented at the present time—will defer any second wave beyond a time horizon of 18 months. Crucially, this deferment is within current testing capabilities (requiring an efficacy of tracing and tracking of about 20% of asymptomatic infected cases, with 50,000 tests per day). These conclusions are based upon a dynamic causal model for which we provide some construct and face validation—using a comparative analysis of the United Kingdom and Germany, supplemented with recent serological studies.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies in Dogs and Cats in the United Kingdom

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shirley Smith ◽  
Enyia Anderson ◽  
Cintia Cansado Utrilla ◽  
Tessa Prince ◽  
Sean Farrell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Companion Animals ◽  
Human Infection ◽  
Neutralising Antibodies ◽  
Diagnostic Laboratory ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Human Infections ◽  
Second Wave

Companion animals are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection and sporadic cases of pet infections have occurred in the United Kingdom. Here we present the first large-scale serological survey of SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies in dogs and cats in the UK. Results are reported for 688 sera (454 canine, 234 feline) collected by a large veterinary diagnostic laboratory for routine haematology during three time periods; pre-COVID-19 (January 2020), during the first wave of UK human infections (April-May 2020) and during the second wave of UK human infections (September 2020-February 2021). Both pre-COVID-19 sera and those from the first wave tested negative. However, in sera collected during the second wave, 1.4% (n=4) of dogs and 2.2% (n=2) cats tested positive for neutralising antibodies. The low numbers of animals testing positive suggests pet animals are unlikely to be a major reservoir for human infection in the UK. However, continued surveillance of in-contact susceptible animals should be performed as part of ongoing population health surveillance initiatives.

scholarly journals Effective immunity and second waves: a dynamic causal modelling study

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 204
Author(s):  
Karl J. Friston ◽  
Thomas Parr ◽  
Peter Zeidman ◽  
Adeel Razi ◽  
Guillaume Flandin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Causal Model ◽  
Therapeutic Interventions ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Causal Modelling ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Technical Report ◽  
Dynamic Causal Model ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Modelling Study

This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak; namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lost following the first wave of the pandemic. This is a crucial epidemiological parameter that speaks to both the consequences of relaxing lockdown and the propensity for a second wave of infections. Using a dynamic causal model of reported cases and deaths from multiple countries, we evaluated the evidence models of progressively longer periods of immunity. The results speak to an effective population immunity of about three months that, under the model, defers any second wave for approximately six months in most countries. This may have implications for the window of opportunity for tracking and tracing, as well as for developing vaccination programmes, and other therapeutic interventions.

scholarly journals Covid-19 Pandemic and Independent Convenience Stores in the United Kingdom

2021 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 258-265
Author(s):  
Maria Rybaczewska ◽  
Łukasz Sułkowski ◽  
Yuriy Bilan
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Consumer Behaviour ◽  
Convenience Store ◽  
Product Categories ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Convenience Stores ◽  
Shopping Behaviour ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Second Wave

Covid-19 brought the new reality into every-day life, global economy, and various sectors, including independent convenience stores. After the first and during the second wave of Coronavirus in the United Kingdom (mid-November 2020), the overall situation was very dynamic and turbulent. This paper is thus aimed at answering the question how the independent convenience stores sector in the United Kingdom functions in the Covid-19 reality. We analyse such issues as the recession phase in the global economy, and challenges the independent convenience stores sector in the UK faces, including the changing aspects of the consumer shopping behaviour. We identify the changes in the footfall, basket spend, sale, product categories, etc. Finally, we conclude that the convenience store sector in the UK is relatively resistant to Covid-19 pandemic and emphasise the most challenging consumer behaviour aspects in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Effective immunity and second waves: a dynamic causal modelling study

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 204
Author(s):  
Karl J. Friston ◽  
Thomas Parr ◽  
Peter Zeidman ◽  
Adeel Razi ◽  
Guillaume Flandin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Causal Model ◽  
Therapeutic Interventions ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Causal Modelling ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Technical Report ◽  
Dynamic Causal Model ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Modelling Study

This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak; namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lost following the first wave of the pandemic. This is a crucial epidemiological parameter that speaks to both the consequences of relaxing lockdown and the propensity for a second wave of infections. Using a dynamic causal model of reported cases and deaths from multiple countries, we evaluated the evidence models of progressively longer periods of immunity. The results speak to an effective population immunity of about three months that, under the model, defers any second wave for approximately six months in most countries. This may have implications for the window of opportunity for tracking and tracing, as well as for developing vaccination programmes, and other therapeutic interventions.

scholarly journals A twelve-month projection to September 2022 of the Covid-19 epidemic in the UK using a Dynamic Causal Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cam Bowie ◽  
Karl Friston
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Causal Model ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Dynamic Causal Model

Objectives Predicting the future UK Covid-19 epidemic allows other countries to compare their epidemic with one unfolding without public health measures except a vaccine programme. Methods A Dynamic Causal Model (DCM) is used to estimate the model parameters of the epidemic such as vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility of alpha and delta variants, the vaccine programme roll-out and changes in contact rates. The model predicts the future trends in infections, long-Covid, hospital admissions and deaths. Results Two dose vaccination given to 66% of the UK population prevents transmission following infection by 44%, serious illness by 86% and death by 93%. Despite this, with no other public health measures used, cases will increase from 37 million to 61 million, hospital admission from 536,000 to 684,000 and deaths from 136,000 to 142,000 over twelve months. Discussion Vaccination alone will not control the epidemic. Relaxation of mitigating public health measures carries several risks including overwhelming the health services, the creation of vaccine resistant variants and the economic cost of huge numbers of acute and chronic cases.

scholarly journals Modelling the effect of an improved trace and isolate system in the wake of a highly transmissible Covid-19 variant with potential vaccine escape

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cam Bowie
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Isolate System ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Modest Improvement ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Dynamic Causal Model ◽  
The Impact

Objective: How helpful would a properly functioning find, test, trace, isolate and support (FTTIS) system be now in the UK with new Covid19 infections at a low level and half the adult population immunised but with a highly transmissible variant becoming predominant? Design: a dynamic causal model of Covid-19 supplied with the latest available empirical data is used to assess the impact of a new highly transmissible variant. Setting: the United Kingdom. Participants: a population based study. Interventions: scenarios are used to explore a Covid-19 transmission rate 50% more and twice the current rate with or without a more effective FTTIS system. Main outcome measures: incidence, death rate and reproductive ratio Results: a small short third wave of infections occurs which does not occur if FTTIS effectiveness is improved from 25% to 30%. Conclusion: a modest improvement in FTTIS would prevent a third wave caused by a highly transmissible virus.

scholarly journals COVID-19 War: United Kingdom’s Strategy During the First Wave

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 355-358
Author(s):  
Mrigesh Bhatia ◽  
Charusheela Bhatia ◽  
Vilomi Bhatia
Keyword(s):  
Personal Protective Equipment ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Protective Equipment ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Equipment Availability ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Second Wave

This opinion piece is a reflection on the UK government’s policy response to the war against the COVID-19 pandemic. In the initial stages, concerns were raised with respect to a lack of effective personal protective equipment, availability of ventilators and diagnostic tests. The early defective strategy based on the flawed assumption of building herd immunity in the population was quickly replaced with isolation and social distancing. Subsequently, testing and contact tracing were adopted which too has been criticised for being ‘too little, too late’. With the possibility of the second wave, the concern is the extent to which the United Kingdom has learnt lessons from the first wave and is in a position to effectively respond to the second wave of COVID-19.

İngiltere’den Türkiye’ye ‘Düzensiz’ Göçmen Dövizi Gönderme Davranışının Nedenleri Üzerine Nitel Bir İnceleme

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-190
Author(s):  
Fethiye Tilbe
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Values ◽  
Host Country ◽  
Regulatory Framework ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Migrant Communities ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
Money Transfers ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Migrant Groups

Bu makale, göçmen dövizi  akımlarında “düzensizlik” olarak ifade ettiğimiz, Türkiye’ye resmi kanallar dışında gönderilen enformel  göçmen dövizlerini, Birleşik Krallık’ta (özellikle Londra’da) yaşayan Türkiye kökenli göçmenler açısından incelemektedir. Her göçmen grubu, gerek ev sahibi ülkedeki düzenleyici çerçeve ve sosyo-ekonomik koşullar, gerek göçmen topluluğunun sosyo-kültürel değerleri tarafından belirlenen biçimde, farklı göçmen dövizi transfer biçimlerine eğilim sergilemektedir. Dolayısıyla farklı ülkelerdeki aynı kökenden göçmen toplulukları, ev sahibi ülkedeki dinamikler nedeniyle göçmen dövizlerinin formel ya da enformel (düzenli ya da düzensiz) gönderiminde farklılaşabilirken, aynı ülkedeki farklı ülke kökenli göçmen grupları da pek çok örüntünün etkisiyle farklı eğilim gösterebilmektedir. Nitel araştırma tasarımı kapsamında 27 göçmen ve 7 anahtar statüdeki katılımcıyla gerçekleştirilen yüz yüze görüşmelere dayalı olan bu çalışma, Birleşik Krallık’tan Türkiye’ye göçmen dövizi gönderimindeki düzensizlik olgusunu, her iki ülkenin sosyal, ekonomik ve kültürel dinamikleriyle ilişkilendirerek incelemeyi ve nedenlerini ortaya çıkarmayı amaç edinmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, göçmenlik statüsü, gönderilen para miktar ve sıklığı ile geleneksel ilişki ağlarına olan güvenin yanında, Birleşik Krallık’taki sosyal yardım ve çalışma biçimine ilişkinin düzenleyici çerçevenin ve göçmenlerin sosyo-ekonomik durumlarının Türkiye’ye enformel göçmen dövizi gönderiminde temel belirleyici olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.ABSTRACT IN ENGLISHA Qualitative Examination of Determinants of Remittances Sending Behaviour Among Immigrants from Turkey in the UKThis article examines the causes of irregularity in remittances flows from the United Kingdom (UK) to Turkey, from the perspective of migrants from Turkey living in the UK. Each group of migrants prefers different types of remittance sending methods, as determined by the regulatory framework and socio-economic conditions in the host country and the socio-cultural values of the migrant community. Therefore, migrant communities of the same origin in different countries may differ in using formal or informal sending methods of remittances due to the dynamics in the host country. Similarly, migrant groups of different nationalities in the same country may show different tendencies due to the influence of many patterns. Similarly, migrant groups of different nationalities in the same country may show different tendencies due to the influence of many patterns. This study aims to examine the phenomenon of irregularities in sending remittances by associating with the social, economic and cultural dynamics of both countries. For this purpose, face-to-face in-depth interviews were conducted with 27 immigrants and 7 key status participants by using qualitative research method. The obtained results reveal that the regulatory framework relating to social assistance and labour market in the UK, immigration status, the frequency and the amount of money sent and confidence in traditional relationship networks is the main determinants of informal money transfers to Turkey.

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