scholarly journals The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 213
Author(s):  
Trystan Leng ◽  
Connor White ◽  
Joe Hilton ◽  
Adam Kucharski ◽  
Lorenzo Pellis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Alternative Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Exit Strategy ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Additional Risk ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemic Risk

Background: ​ During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated the impact of such strategies on epidemic and mortality risk using the UK as a case study. Methods: ​ We used an individual based model for a synthetic population similar to the UK, stratified into transmission risks from the community, within the household and from other households in the same social bubble. The base case considers a situation where non-essential shops and schools are closed, the secondary household attack rate is 20% and the initial reproduction number is 0.8. We simulate social bubble strategies (where two households form an exclusive pair) for households including children, for single occupancy households, and for all households. We test the sensitivity of results to a range of alternative model assumptions and parameters. Results:  Clustering contacts outside the household into exclusive bubbles is an effective strategy of increasing contacts while limiting the associated increase in epidemic risk. In the base case, social bubbles reduced fatalities by 42% compared to an unclustered increase of contacts. We find that if all households were to form social bubbles the reproduction number would likely increase to above the epidemic threshold of R=1. Strategies allowing households with young children or single occupancy households to form social bubbles increased the reproduction number by less than 11%. The corresponding increase in mortality is proportional to the increase in the epidemic risk but is focussed in older adults irrespective of inclusion in social bubbles. Conclusions: ​ If managed appropriately, social bubbles can be an effective way of extending contacts beyond the household while limiting the increase in epidemic risk.

scholarly journals The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trystan Leng ◽  
Connor White ◽  
Joe Hilton ◽  
Adam Kucharski ◽  
Lorenzo Pellis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Alternative Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Exit Strategy ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Additional Risk ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemic Risk

Background: ​ During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated the impact of such strategies on epidemic and mortality risk using the UK as a case study. Methods: ​ We used an individual based model for a synthetic population similar to the UK, stratified into transmission risks from the community, within the household and from other households in the same social bubble. The base case considers a situation where non-essential shops and schools are closed, the secondary household attack rate is 20% and the initial reproduction number is 0.8. We simulate social bubble strategies (where two households form an exclusive pair) for households including children, for single occupancy households, and for all households. We test the sensitivity of results to a range of alternative model assumptions and parameters. Results:  Clustering contacts outside the household into exclusive bubbles is an effective strategy of increasing contacts while limiting the associated increase in epidemic risk. In the base case, social bubbles reduced fatalities by 42% compared to an unclustered increase of contacts. We find that if all households were to form social bubbles the reproduction number would likely increase to above the epidemic threshold of R=1. Strategies allowing households with young children or single occupancy households to form social bubbles increased the reproduction number by less than 11%. The corresponding increase in mortality is proportional to the increase in the epidemic risk but is focussed in older adults irrespective of inclusion in social bubbles. Conclusions: ​ If managed appropriately, social bubbles can be an effective way of extending contacts beyond the household while limiting the increase in epidemic risk.

scholarly journals The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trystan Leng ◽  
Connor White ◽  
Joe Hilton ◽  
Adam Kucharski ◽  
Lorenzo Pellis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Exit Strategy ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Base Case Scenario ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemic Risk

AbstractBackgroundDuring the Covid-19 lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated the impact of such strategies on epidemic and mortality risk using the UK as a case study.MethodsWe used an individual based model for a synthetic population similar to the UK, that is stratified into transmission risks from the community, within the household and from other households in the same social bubble. The base case considers a situation where non-essential shops and schools are closed, the secondary household attack rate is 20% and the initial reproduction number is 0.8. We simulate a number of strategies including variations of social bubbles, i.e. the forming of exclusive pairs of households, for particular subsets of households (households including children and single occupancy households), as well as for all households. We test the sensitivity of the results to a range of alternative model assumptions and parameters.ResultsClustering contacts outside the household into exclusive social bubbles is an effective strategy of increasing contacts while limiting some of the associated increase in epidemic risk. In the base case scenario social bubbles reduced cases and fatalities by 17% compared to an unclustered increase of contacts. We find that if all households were to form social bubbles the reproduction number would likely increase to 1.1 and therefore beyond the epidemic threshold of one. However, strategies that allow households with young children or single occupancy households to form social bubbles only increased the reproduction number by less than 10%. The corresponding increase in morbidity and mortality is proportional to the increase in the epidemic risk but is largely focussed in older adults independently of whether these are included in the social bubbles.ConclusionsSocial bubbles can be an effective way of extending contacts beyond the household limiting the increase in epidemic risk, if managed appropriately.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of the tier system on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. e050346
Author(s):  
Daniel J Laydon ◽  
Swapnil Mishra ◽  
Wes R Hinsley ◽  
Pantelis Samartsidis ◽  
Seth Flaxman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Time Reproduction ◽  
Tier System ◽  
The Uk ◽  
National Trends ◽  
Tier 3 ◽  
The Impact

ObjectiveTo measure the effects of the tier system on the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns, before the emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern.DesignThis is a modelling study combining estimates of real-time reproduction number Rt (derived from UK case, death and serological survey data) with publicly available data on regional non-pharmaceutical interventions. We fit a Bayesian hierarchical model with latent factors using these quantities to account for broader national trends in addition to subnational effects from tiers.SettingThe UK at lower tier local authority (LTLA) level. 310 LTLAs were included in the analysis.Primary and secondary outcome measuresReduction in real-time reproduction number Rt.ResultsNationally, transmission increased between July and late September, regional differences notwithstanding. Immediately prior to the introduction of the tier system, Rt averaged 1.3 (0.9–1.6) across LTLAs, but declined to an average of 1.1 (0.86–1.42) 2 weeks later. Decline in transmission was not solely attributable to tiers. Tier 1 had negligible effects. Tiers 2 and 3, respectively, reduced transmission by 6% (5%–7%) and 23% (21%–25%). 288 LTLAs (93%) would have begun to suppress their epidemics if every LTLA had gone into tier 3 by the second national lockdown, whereas only 90 (29%) did so in reality.ConclusionsThe relatively small effect sizes found in this analysis demonstrate that interventions at least as stringent as tier 3 are required to suppress transmission, especially considering more transmissible variants, at least until effective vaccination is widespread or much greater population immunity has amassed.

scholarly journals Evaluating the efficacy of technical measures: a case study of selection device legislation in the UK Crangon crangon (brown shrimp) fishery

2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom L. Catchpole ◽  
Andrew S. Revill ◽  
James Innes ◽  
Sean Pascoe
Keyword(s):  
Brown Shrimp ◽  
Crangon Crangon ◽  
Shrimp Fishery ◽  
The North ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Technical Measures

Abstract Catchpole, T. L., Revill, A. S., Innes, J., and Pascoe, S. 2008. Evaluating the efficacy of technical measures: a case study of selection device legislation in the UK Crangon crangon (brown shrimp) fishery. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 267–275. Bycatch reduction devices are being introduced into a wide range of fisheries, with shrimp and prawn fisheries particularly targeted owing to the heavy discarding common in these fisheries. Although studies are often undertaken to estimate the impact of a technical measure on the fishery before implementation, rarely have the impacts been assessed ex post. Here, the efficacy of the UK legislation pertaining to the use of sievenets in the North Sea Crangon crangon fishery is assessed. Three impacts were evaluated: on fisher behaviour (social), on the level of bycatch (biological), and on vessel profitability (economic). An apparent high level of compliance by skippers was identified despite a low level of enforcement. The estimated reduction in fleet productivity following the introduction of the legislation was 14%, equalling the mean loss of Crangon landings when using sievenets calculated from catch comparison trawls. Sievenets did reduce the unnecessary capture of unwanted marine organisms, but were least effective at reducing 0-group plaice, which make up the largest component of the bycatch. Clearly the legislation has had an effect in the desired direction, but it does not address sufficiently the bycatch issue in the Crangon fishery.

scholarly journals Estimating the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in England, using weekly contact survey data

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. Munday ◽  
Christopher I. Jarvis ◽  
Amy Gimma ◽  
Kerry L. M. Wong ◽  
Kevin van Zandvoort ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
School Settings ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Contact Survey ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Schools were closed in England on 4 January 2021 as part of increased national restrictions to curb transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The UK government reopened schools on 8 March. Although there was evidence of lower individual-level transmission risk amongst children compared to adults, the combined effects of this with increased contact rates in school settings and the resulting impact on the overall transmission rate in the population were not clear. Methods We measured social contacts of > 5000 participants weekly from March 2020, including periods when schools were both open and closed, amongst other restrictions. We combined these data with estimates of the susceptibility and infectiousness of children compared with adults to estimate the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number. Results Our analysis indicates that reopening all schools under the same measures as previous periods that combined lockdown with face-to-face schooling would be likely to increase the reproduction number substantially. Assuming a baseline of 0.8, we estimated a likely increase to between 1.0 and 1.5 with the reopening of all schools or to between 0.9 and 1.2 reopening primary or secondary schools alone. Conclusion Our results suggest that reopening schools would likely halt the fall in cases observed between January and March 2021 and would risk a return to rising infections, but these estimates relied heavily on the latest estimates or reproduction number and the validity of the susceptibility and infectiousness profiles we used at the time of reopening.

scholarly journals Promoting Positive Mental Health in International Postgraduate Law Students at a Time of Global Uncertainty: A Case Study from qLegal at Queen Mary, University of London

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 107-134
Author(s):  
Emily Wapples
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Law Students ◽  
Online Delivery ◽  
Student Mental Health ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Academic Consequences ◽  
Global Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

Law student mental health and wellbeing was already a growing concern in the UK prior to COVID-19, but when the pandemic occurred, widespread uncertainty placed an unprecedented level of mental health burden on students. Law students were faced with dashed hopes, uncertain futures and the fear of negative academic consequences. This burden was exacerbated in respect of postgraduate international students in London, who were often also forced to decide whether to return home to their families, or to continue their studies abroad, albeit online. This paper uses a case study approach to discuss how one provider of postgraduate clinical legal education (CLE), approached the promotion of positive student mental health both before, and in response to, the pandemic. qLegal at Queen Mary, University of London provides CLE to postgraduates studying for a one year law masters, and in 2019-2020, qLegal delivered CLE to 134 students from 27 countries. The impact that the pandemic had on the mental health of international postgraduate law students was therefore witnessed first-hand. This paper discusses the challenges faced, and concerns raised by international postgraduate law students at qLegal as a result of the pandemic. It examines the steps taken by qLegal to maximise student engagement and promote positive student mental health when rapidly switching to a model of online delivery. The paper concludes by outlining the steps qLegal will take to monitor and address the impact that online delivery in this period of global uncertainty has on the mental health of the next cohort of postgraduate CLE students.

scholarly journals Vaccinating Adolescents and Children Significantly Reduces COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality across All Ages: A Popula-Tion-Based Modeling Study Using the UK as an Example

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1180
Author(s):  
Tinevimbo Shiri ◽  
Marc Evans ◽  
Carla A. Talarico ◽  
Angharad R. Morgan ◽  
Maaz Mussad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Debate persists around the risk–benefit balance of vaccinating adolescents and children against COVID-19. Central to this debate is quantifying the contribution of adolescents and children to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and the potential impact of vaccinating these age groups. In this study, we present a novel SEIR mathematical disease transmission model that quantifies the impact of different vaccination strategies on population-level SARS-CoV-2 infections and clinical outcomes. The model employs both age- and time-dependent social mixing patterns to capture the impact of changes in restrictions. The model was used to assess the impact of vaccinating adolescents and children on the natural history of the COVID-19 pandemic across all age groups, using the UK as an example. The base case model demonstrates significant increases in COVID-19 disease burden in the UK following a relaxation of restrictions, if vaccines are limited to those ≥18 years and vulnerable adolescents (≥12 years). Including adolescents and children in the vaccination program could reduce overall COVID-related mortality by 57%, and reduce cases of long COVID by 75%. This study demonstrates that vaccinating adolescents and children has the potential to play a vital role in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections, and subsequent COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, across all ages. Our results have major global public health implications and provide valuable information to inform a potential pandemic exit strategy.

Social distancing in a social therapy environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 113-127
Author(s):  
Geraldine Ann Akerman ◽  
Emily Jones ◽  
Harry Talbot ◽  
Gemma Grahame-Wright
Keyword(s):  
Social Isolation ◽  
Current Practice ◽  
Social Therapy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Emotional Environment ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to describe the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a prison-based therapeutic community (TC). Design/methodology/approach The paper takes the form of a case study where the authors reflect on their current practice, using the findings of research on social isolation and the overarching TC principles to explore the effect of the pandemic on the TC at HMP Grendon. The authors consider how the residents and staff adjusted to the change as the parameters changed when the social distancing rules were imposed and how they adapted to the prolonged break to therapy. Sections in the paper were written by a resident and an operational member of staff. The authors conclude with their thoughts on how to manage the consequences the lockdown has brought and start to think about what returning to “normality” might mean. Findings The paper describes the adjustments made by the residents and staff as the UK Government imposed the lockdown. The authors, including a resident and an operational member of staff comment on the psychological and practical impact these adjustments had. The thought is given to the idea of “recovery”, returning to “normality” and how this study can be best managed once restrictions are lifted. Research limitations/implications At the time of writing, there are no confirmed cases of COVID-19 at HMP Grendon. The measures and commitment from all staff and residents in the prison to keep the prison environment safe may in part account for this. This paper explores the effects of lockdown on the emotional environment in a TC and highlights the consequences that social isolation can have on any individual. To the authors’ knowledge, there is currently no research undertaken on the impact of lockdown/social isolation on a TC. This research would be useful, as the authors postulate from reflections on current practice that the effects of the lockdown will be greater in a social therapy environment. Originality/value HMP Grendon started in 1962, as this time there have been no significant events that have meant the suspension of therapy for such a sustained period. It is, therefore, important that the impact of such is considered and reflected upon.

scholarly journals Commercial property tax in the UK: business rates and rating appeals

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (6) ◽  
pp. 602-619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Michael Greenhalgh ◽  
Kevin Muldoon-Smith ◽  
Sophie Angus
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Detailed Examination ◽  
Multiple Perspectives ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the introduction of the business rates retention scheme (BRRS) in England which transferred financial liability for backdated appeals to LAs. Under the original scheme, business rates revenue, mandatory relief and liability for successful appeals is spilt 50/50 between central government and local government which both share the rewards of growth and bear the risk of losses. Design/methodology/approach The research adopts a microanalysis approach into researching local government finance, conducting a case study of Leeds, to investigate the impact of appeals liability and reveal disparities in impact, through detailed examination of multiple perspectives in one of the largest cities in the UK. Findings The case study reveals that Leeds, despite having a buoyant commercial economy driven by retail and service sector growth, has been detrimentally impacted by BRRS as backdated appeals have outweighed uplift in business rates income. Fundamentally BRRS is not a “one size fits all” model – it results in winners and losers – which will be exacerbated if local authorities get to keep 100 per cent of their business rates from 2020. Research limitations/implications LAs’ income is more volatile as a consequence of both the rates retention and appeals liability aspects of BRRS and will become more so with the move to 100 per cent retention and liability. Practical implications Such volatility impairs the ability of local authorities to invest in growth at the same time as providing front line services over the medium term – precisely the opposite of what BRRS was intended to do. It also incentivises the construction of new floorspace, which generates risks overbuilding and exacerbating over-supply. Originality/value The research reveals the significant impact of appeals liability on LAs’ business rates revenues which will be compounded with the move to a fiscally neutral business rates system and 100 per cent business rates retention by 2020.

Probability of Uncontrolled External Leakage During the Production Phase of a Subsea Well

2020 ◽  
Vol 143 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
André L. R. Alves ◽  
T. A. Netto
Keyword(s):  
Failure Modes ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Component Reliability ◽  
Production Phase ◽  
Distribution Parameters ◽  
Common Cause Failures ◽  
Integrity Management ◽  
Closed Position ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This work presents a methodology for evaluating the uncontrolled external leakage probability of a subsea well during the production phase. Based on a barrier diagram, an algorithm for possible leak path identification is proposed, considering different operation modes: gas lift operation, free-flowing, or well closed at the subsea Christmas tree. Considering the equivalency between these paths and the minimum cut sets from a fault tree modeling, the uncontrolled external leakage probability is calculated using the upper bound approximation. The effect of common cause failures is considered for the failure mode fail-to-close-valve. The instantaneous availability function of each component is considered. Non-repairable, repairable, and periodically tested items are used. Probability distribution parameters are estimated in order to make a case study. The failure rate functions determined are used as input for the proposed model, regarding the following failure modes: fail-to-close, external-leakage, and internal-leakage at the closed position. Finally, failure probability results and sensitivity analysis are demonstrated for a base case study. Parameters like time between tests, inspections, and component reliability are varied in order to identify the impact on the uncontrolled external leakage probability. The main objective of the proposed methodology is to support decision-making on the well integrity management system during the production phase of a subsea well. To this end, actual and reliable input data should be considered.

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