Comparative Analysis of Terrorists’ Objectives Hierarchies

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-114
Author(s):  
Johannes Ulrich Siebert ◽  
Detlof von Winterfeldt
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Al Qaeda ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Analysis Methodology ◽  
Intelligence Collection ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
The Relationship

To develop effective counterterrorism strategies, it is important to understand the capabilities and objectives of terrorist groups. Much of the understanding of these groups comes from intelligence collection and analysis of their capabilities. In contrast, the objectives of terrorists are less well understood. In this article, we describe a decision analysis methodology to identify and structure the objectives of terrorists based on the statements and writings of their leaders. This methodology was applied in three case studies, resulting in the three objectives hierarchies of al-Qaeda, Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), and Hezbollah. In this article, we propose a method to compare the three objectives hierarchies, highlight their key differences, and draw conclusions about effective counterterrorism strategies. We find that all three terrorist groups have a wide range of objectives going far beyond the objective of killing and terrorizing people in the non-Muslim world. Among the shared objectives are destroying Israel and expelling Western powers from the Middle East. All three groups share the ambition to become a leader in the Islamic world. Key distinctions are the territorial ambitions of ISIL and Hezbollah versus the large-scale attack objectives of al-Qaeda. Objectives specific to ISIL are the establishment of a caliphate in Iraq and Syria and the re-creation of the power of Sunni Islam. Hezbollah has unique objectives related to the establishment of a Palestine State and to maintain the relationship with and support of Iran and Syria. Al-Qaeda’s objectives remain focused on large-scale attacks in the West. We also note a recent shift to provide support for small-scale attacks in the West by both al-Qaeda and ISIL. Our method can be used for comparing objectives hierarchies of different organizations as well as for comparing objectives hierarchies over time of one organization.

scholarly journals Turkish Approach to Isil, Syria And The Kurdish Region

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulviyya Huseynova
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Regional Power ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
The West ◽  
Delayed Reaction ◽  
The Past ◽  
Or Organization ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
International View

<p>There have been large-scale complaints lately regarding the relationship between Turkey and the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The basis of the mentioned allegations shows that Turkey is unwilling to take very strict measures regarding the security threat over its borders. This research paper examines the Turkish dilemma fighting against the ISIL threat and the contribution of Turkish policy in support of fighting ISIL. In recent meetings, U.S. officials mentioned that Turkey has made a mistake in the past with its borders. They criticize Turkey’s delayed reaction and failure to react strongly against ISIL, but that does not imply that Turkey supports a terrorist group or organization<strong>. </strong>Furthermore, Ankara has always argued that the rebels from Syria should be supported and moderated. But this point of reaction, which is even supported by the West, makes it impossible to differentiate between the 2 camps. The cross-over of arms as well, e.g. to control the deliveries of arms, is impossible to moderate. Turkey tries to keep away the emerging anti –ISIL coalition and does not support an attack on the group. It has been argued in the international view that Turkey cannot become a regional power without joining the fighting coalition against ISIL threat. However, the West and regional countries are trying to understand the Turkish reaction and they are concerned.</p>

scholarly journals Othering the West in the online Jihadist propaganda magazines Inspire and Dabiq

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nuria Lorenzo-Dus ◽  
Stuart Macdonald
Keyword(s):  
Discourse Analysis ◽  
Al Qaeda ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Discourse Studies ◽  
Approach Working ◽  
Jihadist Terrorism

Abstract This paper examines how the jihadist terrorist groups Al Qaeda and the so-called Islamic State discursively construct ‘the West’ as an alien, aberrant ‘other’ in their respective online propaganda magazines Inspire and Dabiq over a 5 year period (2010–2015). The analysis integrates insights from the field of Terrorism Studies into a Corpus Assisted Discourse Studies approach, working centrally with the notions of othering and conventionalised impoliteness. Our findings reveal not only that othering is a key discursive process in the groups’ online propaganda machinery but that it is discursively realised via homogenisation, suppression (stereotyping) and pejoration strategies. The latter are further examined via the notion of conventional impoliteness. Pointed criticism emerges as the most frequent conventionalised impoliteness strategy in both magazines. Threats, condescension and exclusion strategies are also saliently used, albeit with different relative frequencies within each magazine. The findings show the value of Discourse Analysis to research into (jihadist) terrorism, including the possibility of drawing upon its findings to develop tailored counter-messages to those advanced by (jihadist) terrorist groups.

Mapping Global Cyberterror Networks: An Empirical Study of Al-Qaeda and ISIS Cyberterrorism Events

2021 ◽  
pp. 104398622110016
Author(s):  
Claire Seungeun Lee ◽  
Kyung-Shick Choi ◽  
Ryan Shandler ◽  
Chris Kayser
Keyword(s):  
Network Analysis ◽  
Conflict Theory ◽  
Transition Theory ◽  
Al Qaeda ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Internal Dynamics ◽  
Analysis Methodology ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Complex Features ◽  
Cyber Conflict

This study explores the internal dynamics and networks of terrorist groups in cyberspace—in particular, Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). Using a “Global Cyberterrorism Dataset” that features data on cyberterror attacks between 2011 and 2016, this research analyzes these two terrorist groups through the lens of a cyber-conflict theory that integrates conflict theory with Jaishankar’s space transition theory. Through a network analysis methodology, we examine the invisible relationships and connections between the national origins and target countries of cyberterror attacks. The analysis focuses on the networks of national origins of terrorists and victims, network structures of Al-Qaeda and ISIS actors, and clustering networks of Al-Qaeda and ISIS cyberterrorists. Results indicate that terror in cyberspace is ubiquitous, more flexible than traditional terrorism, and that cyberattacks mostly occurred within the countries of origin. We conclude by discussing the complex features of cyberterror networks and identify some of the geostrategic implications of the divergent cyber strategies adopted by Al-Qaeda and ISIS.

Coupled Thermo-Hydro-Geochemical Models of Engineered Barrier Systems: The Febex Project

2000 ◽  
Vol 663 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Samper ◽  
R. Juncosa ◽  
V. Navarro ◽  
J. Delgado ◽  
L. Montenegro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
In Situ Test ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Engineered Barrier

ABSTRACTFEBEX (Full-scale Engineered Barrier EXperiment) is a demonstration and research project dealing with the bentonite engineered barrier designed for sealing and containment of waste in a high level radioactive waste repository (HLWR). It includes two main experiments: an situ full-scale test performed at Grimsel (GTS) and a mock-up test operating since February 1997 at CIEMAT facilities in Madrid (Spain) [1,2,3]. One of the objectives of FEBEX is the development and testing of conceptual and numerical models for the thermal, hydrodynamic, and geochemical (THG) processes expected to take place in engineered clay barriers. A significant improvement in coupled THG modeling of the clay barrier has been achieved both in terms of a better understanding of THG processes and more sophisticated THG computer codes. The ability of these models to reproduce the observed THG patterns in a wide range of THG conditions enhances the confidence in their prediction capabilities. Numerical THG models of heating and hydration experiments performed on small-scale lab cells provide excellent results for temperatures, water inflow and final water content in the cells [3]. Calculated concentrations at the end of the experiments reproduce most of the patterns of measured data. In general, the fit of concentrations of dissolved species is better than that of exchanged cations. These models were later used to simulate the evolution of the large-scale experiments (in situ and mock-up). Some thermo-hydrodynamic hypotheses and bentonite parameters were slightly revised during TH calibration of the mock-up test. The results of the reference model reproduce simultaneously the observed water inflows and bentonite temperatures and relative humidities. Although the model is highly sensitive to one-at-a-time variations in model parameters, the possibility of parameter combinations leading to similar fits cannot be precluded. The TH model of the “in situ” test is based on the same bentonite TH parameters and assumptions as for the “mock-up” test. Granite parameters were slightly modified during the calibration process in order to reproduce the observed thermal and hydrodynamic evolution. The reference model captures properly relative humidities and temperatures in the bentonite [3]. It also reproduces the observed spatial distribution of water pressures and temperatures in the granite. Once calibrated the TH aspects of the model, predictions of the THG evolution of both tests were performed. Data from the dismantling of the in situ test, which is planned for the summer of 2001, will provide a unique opportunity to test and validate current THG models of the EBS.

The Competing Mediations in the Post-Qaddafi Libyan Political Crisis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-31
Author(s):  
Kasaija Phillip Apuuli
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Al Qaeda ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
African Union ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
The United Nations ◽  
Mediation Processes ◽  
The Revolution

Abstract Since the end of the revolution that toppled the rule of Muammar Qaddafi in October 2011, Libya has never known peace. The country descended into civil war with different factions contending for control. In this milieu, the United Nations attempted to mediate an end to the crisis but its efforts have failed to gain traction partly as a result of other mediation initiatives undertaken by several European actors. Sub-regional and continental organizations, including the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) and the African Union (AU) respectively, that should have taken the lead in the mediation have been absent. Meanwhile, continued fighting has hampered a mediated settlement, and terrorist groups such as the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda have taken advantage of the situation to establish a presence in the country. In the end, rather than ending the crisis, Libya has provided the ground for competing mediation processes which have prolonged the crisis.

Buoyancy effects on large-scale motions in convective atmospheric boundary layers: implications for modulation of near-wall processes

2018 ◽  
Vol 856 ◽  
pp. 135-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. T. Salesky ◽  
W. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Velocity Field ◽  
Boundary Layers ◽  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Amplitude Modulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Streamwise Velocity ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Convective Conditions ◽  
Wide Range

A number of recent studies have demonstrated the existence of so-called large- and very-large-scale motions (LSM, VLSM) that occur in the logarithmic region of inertia-dominated wall-bounded turbulent flows. These regions exhibit significant streamwise coherence, and have been shown to modulate the amplitude and frequency of small-scale inner-layer fluctuations in smooth-wall turbulent boundary layers. In contrast, the extent to which analogous modulation occurs in inertia-dominated flows subjected to convective thermal stratification (low Richardson number) and Coriolis forcing (low Rossby number), has not been considered. And yet, these parameter values encompass a wide range of important environmental flows. In this article, we present evidence of amplitude modulation (AM) phenomena in the unstably stratified (i.e. convective) atmospheric boundary layer, and link changes in AM to changes in the topology of coherent structures with increasing instability. We perform a suite of large eddy simulations spanning weakly ($-z_{i}/L=3.1$) to highly convective ($-z_{i}/L=1082$) conditions (where$-z_{i}/L$is the bulk stability parameter formed from the boundary-layer depth$z_{i}$and the Obukhov length $L$) to investigate how AM is affected by buoyancy. Results demonstrate that as unstable stratification increases, the inclination angle of surface layer structures (as determined from the two-point correlation of streamwise velocity) increases from$\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FE}\approx 15^{\circ }$for weakly convective conditions to nearly vertical for highly convective conditions. As$-z_{i}/L$increases, LSMs in the streamwise velocity field transition from long, linear updrafts (or horizontal convective rolls) to open cellular patterns, analogous to turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection. These changes in the instantaneous velocity field are accompanied by a shift in the outer peak in the streamwise and vertical velocity spectra to smaller dimensionless wavelengths until the energy is concentrated at a single peak. The decoupling procedure proposed by Mathiset al.(J. Fluid Mech., vol. 628, 2009a, pp. 311–337) is used to investigate the extent to which amplitude modulation of small-scale turbulence occurs due to large-scale streamwise and vertical velocity fluctuations. As the spatial attributes of flow structures change from streamwise to vertically dominated, modulation by the large-scale streamwise velocity decreases monotonically. However, the modulating influence of the large-scale vertical velocity remains significant across the stability range considered. We report, finally, that amplitude modulation correlations are insensitive to the computational mesh resolution for flows forced by shear, buoyancy and Coriolis accelerations.

scholarly journals Weapons of Mass Destruction and Modern Terrorism: Implications for Global Security

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
O. Ike Okoro ◽  
Nduka Lucas Oluka
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Weapons Of Mass Destruction ◽  
Al Qaeda ◽  
Secondary Source ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Operational Mode ◽  
Mass Destruction ◽  
Counter Measures ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
State Actors

The hazard of biological, chemical and nuclear materials, regarded as Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), intercalating the arsenal of terrorists is the biggest crime and challenge against humanity. Every such crime and challenge ought to be named appropriately; and state actors experiencing such owe it to their citizens to act speedily and with certainty against terrorists. Even with the on-going war on terrorism, there has been a surge in terrorist activities in some parts of the world. Terrorists in our contemporary age have also embraced startling trends in their operational mode since the 11 September 2001 fanatic attacks in New York and Washington D. C. The devastating effect of these twin attacks has raised global concern about the potential use of WMD by Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State of Iran and Syria (ISIS), and their affiliate groups. One major issue of great concern in recent times, apart from the propensity of the terrorist organizations to acquire WMD, is the involvement of state actors that secretly acquire or claim to have acquired them for the purposes of electricity generation. Notably, too, is the trend in modern scientific and technological improvement which has increased the nature of, and access to, WMD. This research, therefore, attempts to access the implication and impact of WMD as terrorists put them to use. The study also examines the concept of terrorism and WMD. Also examined is the general implication of the use of WMD and the challenges this might pose to the international community, considering the current trends in their acquisition by some states and non-state actors. The investigation suggests appropriate counter-measures to thwart terrorists’ effort to acquire WMD. The study also adopted the qualitative approach of research to analyse the sophistication adopted by new terrorist groups particularly by the ISIS terrorist network; the al-Qaeda group and other splinter groups. Thus, historical research is most appropriate for this study, and secondary source of data was adopted as its methodology.

scholarly journals THROUGH THE PRISM OF PREDICTIVE АNALYTICS: CULTURAL AND IDEOLOGICAL TRENDS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE PROBLEM OF TERRORISM

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 110-127
Author(s):  
L. L. FITUNI
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Predictive Analytics ◽  
Basic Research ◽  
International Terrorism ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
The Impact

The article is an attempt to predict the main trends of the political, cultural and ideological development of the Middle East in the  medium and long term, taking into account the impact of  international terrorism. To provide optimal solutions possible the  author identifies a number of core components. Basing this selection  he offers his vision of the likely behaviour of key state and non-state  actors as well as the forthcoming fate of the objects of their attention. In preparing the scenarios, the main methods of  predictive analytics were used: statistical analysis, intellectual  analysis of data, analysis of patterns and models conducted within  the framework of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research project  “The Phenomenon of the Islamic State” in the context of the development of a modern Eastern society. “The article is based  on an interpretation of the main conclusions and results of using those methods and methodologies. The article asserts that the recent growth of radical Islam in the East and political populism  in the West are close root causes. Despite all the differences in the  rhetoric and the outward forms, they represent a defensive response  on the part of those segments of Eastern and  Western societies that have failed to adjust to rigid paradigms of  globalization. Intra- and inter-confessional conflicts may become the  prevailing form of military threats in the region, beginning around  the 2020s. Their heralds are already visible in conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and, to a lesser extent, in Lebanon, Bahrain and on the east  coast of the Arabian Peninsula. Interstate Shiite-Sunni contradictions have so far been limited by political-ideological  confrontation and diplomatic demarches, sometimes accompanied by various embargoes, such as the recent Qatar crisis. Even the physical destruction of the selfproclaimed Islamic pseudo-state in MENA will take some time. Under favorable circumstances, ISIS units may be squeezed out of the important settlements of Syria and Iraq  within a year. This will not mean the end of ISIS. The experience of  the war with terrorist groups in Libya, Algeria, West Africa, Somalia,  Afghanistan, and Southeast Asia shows that even when driven out  into the desert or sparsely populated areas, fragmented but linked  groups of terrorists continue for quite some time to inflict harassing attacks on government forces and objects, to make long  sorties and to arrange spectacular acts of terrorism. Most likely, the  forces interested in maintaining the problems of international terrorism high on the agenda will not sit idly by but will  undertake spectacular and noteworthy actions to keep terrorism  issues in the limelight. As a result, the intensity of terrorist attacks in  the West may increase, since even limited terrorist attacks in  Europe cause more media coverage in the world media than any acts of terrorism in the Middle East. To achieve these goals, new channels and forms of imple mentation of terrorist attacks will  be used, such as terrorist acts involving children, ordinary means of  transport, during the course of mass and symbolic political events, elections, etc.

scholarly journals Self-Supervised Pre-Training of Transformers for Satellite Image Time Series Classification

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan Yuan ◽  
Lei Lin
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Temporal Structure ◽  
Satellite Image ◽  
Fine Tuning ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Wide Range

Satellite image time series (SITS) classification is a major research topic in remote sensing and is relevant for a wide range of applications. Deep learning approaches have been commonly employed for SITS classification and have provided state-of-the-art performance. However, deep learning methods suffer from overfitting when labeled data is scarce. To address this problem, we propose a novel self-supervised pre-training scheme to initialize a Transformer-based network by utilizing large-scale unlabeled data. In detail, the model is asked to predict randomly contaminated observations given an entire time series of a pixel. The main idea of our proposal is to leverage the inherent temporal structure of satellite time series to learn general-purpose spectral-temporal representations related to land cover semantics. Once pre-training is completed, the pre-trained network can be further adapted to various SITS classification tasks by fine-tuning all the model parameters on small-scale task-related labeled data. In this way, the general knowledge and representations about SITS can be transferred to a label-scarce task, thereby improving the generalization performance of the model as well as reducing the risk of overfitting. Comprehensive experiments have been carried out on three benchmark datasets over large study areas. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, leading to a classification accuracy increment up to 1.91% to 6.69%. <div><b>This work has been submitted to the IEEE for possible publication. Copyright may be transferred without notice, after which this version may no longer be accessible.</b></div>

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