Near-Term Climate Prediction Using Ice-Core Data from Greenland

2001 ◽  
pp. 305-316 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ice Core ◽  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Core Data ◽  
Near Term

scholarly journals Kalman Filter Harmonic Bank for Vostok Ice Core Data Analysis and Climate Predictions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Migdat Hodzic ◽  
Ivan Kennedy
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Core Data ◽  
Fast Fourier Transform Analysis ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses

The Vostok ice core data cover 420,000 years indicating the natural regularity of Earth’s surface temperature and climate. Here, we consider four major cycles of similar duration, ranging from 86,000 to 128,000 years, comprising 15% of periods for the warming interglacials compared to some 85% of cooling periods. Globally, we are near the peak of a rapid warming period. We perform a detailed frequency analysis of temperature and CO2 cycles, as a primary stage in building a logical Climate Prediction Engine (CPE), illustrated with specific harmonics. This analysis can be repeated for all harmonics and various cycle combinations. Our time correlation estimates the CO2 time lag for temperature at 400–2300 years, depending on the cycle, longer on average than previously concluded. We also perform Fast-Fourier transform analysis, identifying a full harmonic spectrum for each cycle, plus an energy analysis to identify each harmonic amplitude − to achieve further prediction analysis using a Kalman filter harmonic bank. For Vostok data we can use combinations of different cycles compared to the most recent for learning and then the current ongoing cycle for testing. Assuming causal time regularity, more cycles can be employed in training, hence reducing the prediction error for the next cycle. This results in prediction of climate data with both naturally occurring as well as human forced CO2 values. We perform this detailed time and frequency analysis as a basis for improving the quality of our climate prediction methodologies, with particular attention to testing alternative hypotheses of the possible causes of climate change. These include the effect on albedo of suspended dust and increasing water vapor with temperature in initiating interglacial warming, the effect of temperature and pH values of surface water on ambient level of CO2 in the atmosphere and finding a larger latent heat capacity in the atmosphere required to sustain its circulatory motions, leading to friction and turbulent release of heat in boundary layer. All these potentials can be examined in an effective CPE.

Biospheric CO2emissions during the past 200 years reconstructed by deconvolution of ice core data

Tellus B ◽  
1987 ◽  
Vol 39B (1-2) ◽  
pp. 140-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
U. SIEGENTHALER ◽  
H. OESCHGER
Keyword(s):  
Ice Core ◽  
Core Data ◽  
The Past

scholarly journals Chlorophyll-a in Antarctic Landfast Sea Ice: A First Synthesis of Historical Ice Core Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 123 (11) ◽  
pp. 8444-8459 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. Meiners ◽  
M. Vancoppenolle ◽  
G. Carnat ◽  
G. Castellani ◽  
B. Delille ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Chlorophyll A ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Core Data ◽  
Landfast Sea Ice

scholarly journals Paleoclimatic variability inferred from the spectral analysis of Greenland and Antarctic ice-core data

1997 ◽  
Vol 102 (C12) ◽  
pp. 26441-26454 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Yiou ◽  
K. Fuhrer ◽  
L. D. Meeker ◽  
J. Jouzel ◽  
S. Johnsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Core Data

scholarly journals Centennial mineral dust variability in high-resolution ice core data from Dome C, Antarctica

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 609-623 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Lambert ◽  
M. Bigler ◽  
J. P. Steffensen ◽  
M. Hutterli ◽  
H. Fischer
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Mineral Dust ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Core Data ◽  
The Past ◽  
Dust Flux ◽  
Soluble Calcium

Abstract. Ice core data from Antarctica provide detailed insights into the characteristics of past climate, atmospheric circulation, as well as changes in the aerosol load of the atmosphere. We present high-resolution records of soluble calcium (Ca2+), non-sea-salt soluble calcium (nssCa2+), and particulate mineral dust aerosol from the East Antarctic Plateau at a depth resolution of 1 cm, spanning the past 800 000 years. Despite the fact that all three parameters are largely dust-derived, the ratio of nssCa2+ to particulate dust is dependent on the particulate dust concentration itself. We used principal component analysis to extract the joint climatic signal and produce a common high-resolution record of dust flux. This new record is used to identify Antarctic warming events during the past eight glacial periods. The phasing of dust flux and CO2 changes during glacial-interglacial transitions reveals that iron fertilization of the Southern Ocean during the past nine glacial terminations was not the dominant factor in the deglacial rise of CO2 concentrations. Rapid changes in dust flux during glacial terminations and Antarctic warming events point to a rapid response of the southern westerly wind belt in the region of southern South American dust sources on changing climate conditions. The clear lead of these dust changes on temperature rise suggests that an atmospheric reorganization occurred in the Southern Hemisphere before the Southern Ocean warmed significantly.

The chemical composition of ancient atmospheres: A model study constrained by ice core data

1995 ◽  
Vol 100 (D7) ◽  
pp. 14291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia Martinerie ◽  
Guy P. Brasseur ◽  
Claire Granier
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Composition ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Core Data ◽  
Model Study

scholarly journals The Atmospheric δ13C Record as Derived from 56 Pinyon Trees at 14 Sites in the Southwestern United States

Radiocarbon ◽  
1989 ◽  
Vol 31 (03) ◽  
pp. 469-474 ◽  
Author(s):  
S W Leavitt ◽  
Austin Long
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
The Other ◽  
Core Data ◽  
Single Tree ◽  
Pinyon Pine ◽  
The Individual ◽  
First Time

We have developed a master δ13C chronology from 14 pinyon pine sites in 6 states of the southwestern U S. Two of the individual isotopic chronologies, reported here for the first time, and 10 of those previously reported (Leavitt & Long, 1986; 1988) are from sites where cores from 4 trees were pooled prior to analysis, and the other 2 are merged from groups of 4 single-tree chronologies (sites) developed in an earlier phase of research (Leavitt & Long, 1985). Regressions of first differences of ring-width indices and δ13C values from each site were used to “correct” individual δ13C chronologies for climate effects which appear primarily related to high-frequency δ13C fluctuations, many of which are common among sites. These climate-corrected chronologies were normalized as deviations from their respective 1800–1849 δ13C means, and these normalized chronologies were averaged into the master. The overall δ13C drop from 1600 to the present is ca 1.2–1.4, consistent with recent ice-core data showing a drop of 1.14 ± 0.15% from 1740 to present (Friedli et al, 1986). However, the δ13C decline in the late 19th and early 20th centuries is greater in the pinyon chronology than that of the ice cores, thus supporting a greater biospheric CO2 input to the atmosphere than that indicated in the ice-core data.

Basal ice formation and deformation in central Greenland: a review of existing and new ice core data

2000 ◽  
Vol 176 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Souchez ◽  
G. Vandenschrick ◽  
R. Lorrain ◽  
J.-L. Tison
Keyword(s):  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Formation ◽  
Core Data ◽  
Basal Ice

Constraining future climate change using ice core data

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 012028
Author(s):  
Jean Jouzel ◽  
V Masson-Delmotte ◽  
D Raynaud
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Core Data
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