scholarly journals Prediction of Future Climate Change for Rainfall in the Upper Kurau River Basin, Perak Using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM)

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6A) ◽  
pp. 33-42
Author(s):  
Nuramidah Hamidon ◽  
Sobri Harun ◽  
Norshuhaila Mohamed Sunar ◽  
Nor Hazren A.Hamid ◽  
Mimi Suliza Muhamad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Downscaling Model

scholarly journals Projections of Future Climate Change in the Vu Gia Thu Bon River Basin, Vietnam by Using Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 755
Author(s):  
Dang Nguyen Dong Phuong ◽  
Trung Q. Duong ◽  
Nguyen Duy Liem ◽  
Vo Ngoc Quynh Tram ◽  
Dang Kien Cuong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Temperatures ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Statistical Downscaling Model

Future projections of anthropogenic climate change play a pivotal role in devising viable countermeasures to address climate-related risks. This study strove to construct future daily rainfall and maximum and minimum temperature scenarios in Vu Gia Thu Bon river basin by employing the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The model performance was evaluated by utilizing a Taylor diagram with dimensioned and dimensionless statistics. During validation, all model-performance measures show good ability in simulating extreme temperatures and reasonable ability for rainfall. Subsequently, a set of predictors derived from HadCM3 and CanESM2 was selected to generate ensembles of each climatic variables up to the end of 21st century. The generated outcomes exhibit a consistent increase in both extreme temperatures under all emission scenarios. The greatest changes in maximum and minimum temperature were predicted to increase by 2.67–3.9 °C and 1.24–1.96 °C between the 2080s and reference period for the worst-case scenarios. Conversely, there are several discrepancies in the projections of rainfall under different emission scenarios as well as among considered stations. The predicted outcomes indicate a significant decrease in rainfall by approximately 11.57%–17.68% at most stations by 2099. Moreover, all ensemble means were subjected to the overall and partial trend analysis by applying the Innovative-Şen trend analysis method. The results exhibit similar trend patterns, thereby indicating high stability and applicability of the SDSM. Generally, it is expected that these findings will contribute numerous valuable foundations to establish a framework for the assessment of climate change impacts at the river basin scale.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the effect of future climate on runoff in the Dongjiang River basin, South China

2015 ◽  
Vol 368 ◽  
pp. 257-262
Author(s):  
K. Lin ◽  
W. Zhai ◽  
S. Huang ◽  
Z. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
South China ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Dongjiang River ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of future climate change on the runoff for the Dongjiang River basin, South China, has been investigated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, the SWAT model was applied in the three sub-basins of the Dongjiang River basin, and calibrated for the period of 1970–1975, and validated for the period of 1976–1985. Then the hydrological response under climate change and land use scenario in the next 40 years (2011–2050) was studied. The future weather data was generated by using the weather generators of SWAT, based on the trend of the observed data series (1966–2005). The results showed that under the future climate change and LUCC scenario, the annual runoff of the three sub-basins all decreased. Its impacts on annual runoff were –6.87%, –6.54%, and –18.16% for the Shuntian, Lantang, and Yuecheng sub-basins respectively, compared with the baseline period 1966–2005. The results of this study could be a reference for regional water resources management since Dongjiang River provides crucial water supplies to Guangdong Province and the District of Hong Kong in China.

Future Climate Change Projections of the Kabul River Basin Using a Multi-model Ensemble of High-Resolution Statistically Downscaled Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 477-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Ahsan Ali Bokhari ◽  
Burhan Ahmad ◽  
Jahangir Ali ◽  
Shakeel Ahmad ◽  
Haris Mushtaq ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Kabul River

scholarly journals Projecting future climate change effects on the extreme hydrological drought events in the Weihe River basin, China

2015 ◽  
Vol 369 ◽  
pp. 69-74
Author(s):  
F. Yuan ◽  
Y. Y. San ◽  
Y. Li ◽  
M. Ma ◽  
L. Ren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Drought Analysis ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
Weihe River ◽  
Weihe River Basin

Abstract. In this study, a framework to project the potential future climate change impacts on extreme hydrological drought events in the Weihe River basin in North China is presented. This framework includes a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from a regional climate model for historical streamflow simulations and future streamflow projections, and models for univariate drought assessment and copula-based bivariate drought analysis. It is projected by the univariate drought analysis that future climate change would lead to increased frequencies of extreme hydrological drought events with higher severity. The bivariate drought assessment using copula shows that future droughts in the same return periods as historical droughts would be potentially longer and more severe, in terms of drought duration and severity. This trend would deteriorate the hydrological drought situation in the Weihe River basin. In addition, the uncertainties associated with climate models, hydrological models, and univariate and bivariate drought analysis should be quantified in the future research to improve the reliability of this study.

scholarly journals Projected Effects of Climate Change on Future Hydrological Regimes in the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqian Wang ◽  
Xiaoli Yang ◽  
Mengru Zhang ◽  
Linqi Zhang ◽  
Xiaohan Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Upper Yangtze River ◽  
The Upper Yangtze River ◽  
Hydrological Regimes

Climate change directly impacts the hydrological cycle via increasing temperatures and seasonal precipitation shifts, which are variable at local scales. The water resources of the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) account for almost 40% and 15% of all water resources used in the Yangtze Basin and China, respectively. Future climate change and the possible responses of surface runoff in this region are urgent issues for China’s water security and sustainable socioeconomic development. This study evaluated the potential impacts of future climate change on the hydrological regimes (high flow (Q5), low flow (Q95), and mean annual runoff (MAR)) of the UYRB using global climate models (GCMs) and a variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. We used the eight bias-corrected GCM outputs from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to examine the effects of climate change under two future representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The direct variance method was adopted to analyze the contributions of precipitation and temperature to future Q5, Q95, and MAR. The results showed that the equidistant cumulative distribution function (EDCDF) can considerably reduce biases in the temperature and precipitation fields of CMIP5 models and that the EDCDF captured the extreme values and spatial pattern of the climate fields. Relative to the baseline period (1961–1990), precipitation is projected to slightly increase in the future, while temperature is projected to considerably increase. Furthermore, Q5, Q95, and MAR are projected to decrease. The projected decreases in the median value of Q95 were 21.08% to 24.88% and 16.05% to 26.70% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively; these decreases were larger than those of MAR and Q5. Temperature increases accounted for more than 99% of the projected changes, whereas precipitation had limited projected effects on Q95 and MAR. These results indicate the drought risk over the UYRB will increase considerably in the future.

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE TO FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE TONE RIVER BASIN OF JAPAN

2016 ◽  
Vol 72 (4) ◽  
pp. I_25-I_30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maheswor SHRESTHA ◽  
Toshio KOIKE ◽  
Patricia Ann JARANILLA-SANCHEZ ◽  
Lei WANG ◽  
Yasutaka WAKAZUKI
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Hydrologic Response

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Water Balance Components and Droughts in the Guajoyo River Basin (El Salvador)

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Blanco-Gómez ◽  
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez ◽  
Javier Senent-Aparicio ◽  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Historical Series

This study assessed how changes in terms of temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in water availability and droughts in an area in a developing country with environmental interest. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze the impacts of climate change on water resources of the Guajoyo River Basin in El Salvador. El Salvador is in one of the most vulnerable regions in Latin America to the effects of climate change. The predicted future climate change by two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and five general circulation models (GCMs) were considered. A statistical analysis was performed to identify which GCM was better in terms of goodness of fit to variation in means and standard deviations of the historical series. A significant decreasing trend in precipitation and a significant increase in annual average temperatures were projected by the middle and the end of the twenty–first century. The results indicated a decreasing trend of the amount of water available and more severe droughts for future climate scenarios with respect to the base period (1975–2004). These findings will provide local water management authorities useful information in the face of climate change to help decision making.

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