Il ruolo della previsione nel processo decisionale*

1985 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 189-200
Author(s):  
Ornello Vitali
Keyword(s):  
Present Situation ◽  
Good Information ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Middle Term ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Events

Abstract Though undertakings prefer, usually, to concentrate on short-term previsions, it seems essential for them to develop middle-term and also long-term forecasting.Taking into consideration the interdependence among these three kinds of forecasts, it is unavoidable the suggestion to make an effort to look not only to the next future, but much further, in such a way to reinforce the quality of previsions.To forecast future events, it is important a good information about the present situation, whilst to understand the actual problems it is essential to be able to foresee the future.

Attending to the Heartbeat in Dance Movement Psychotherapy

2017 ◽  
pp. 902-924
Author(s):  
Mariam Mchitarian ◽  
Jospeh A. Moutiris ◽  
Vicky Karkou
Keyword(s):  
Tertiary Hospital ◽  
Psychological Status ◽  
Therapeutic Tool ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Rehabilitation Centre ◽  
Dance Movement ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Term Benefit

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Interventions to reduce future events in patients with established CHD include, apart from medical and pharmaceutical means, a change in lifestyle, social, and psychological support, and other interventions such as dance movement psychotherapy (DMP). This chapter describes the potential usefulness of DMP as a therapeutic tool in acute and chronic cardiac patients. Data from two studies among CHD patients, conducted in a tertiary hospital and in a rehabilitation centre, are presented. Both of these studies show short-term benefit in the quality of life and psychological status of patients. Although methodological limitations did not allow for the establishment of long-term benefits of this intervention for CHD patients, this chapter hypothesizes that long-lasting benefits are possible.

scholarly journals Improving the quality of care in health systems: towards better strategies

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Dixon
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Quality Of Care ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Critical Mass ◽  
National Level ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Future ◽  
Over Time

AbstractImproving the quality of health care across a nation is complex and hard. Countries often rely on multiple single national level programmes to make progress. But the key is to use a framework to develop a balanced overall strategy, and evaluate the main elements continuously and over time. Achieving that requires having a critical mass of leaders who collectively can see the bigger picture now, envision a roadmap for the future to chart an intelligent course, and course correct regularly. This is a long-term agenda requiring commitment, careful stewardship, different perspectives, trust, and the building of knowledge and experience over time. It is also almost completely at odds with much current policymaking which is short term, reactive and demands hard results. Many countries are making progress. But the rapid introduction of new types of care during the COVID 19 pandemic, such as online and digital, the use of new technologies which could soon revolutionalise the way care is delivered, experienced and evaluated, and the huge pressures on spending on health care in future mean we will have to do better. Achieving system-wide quality of care requires having a critical mass of leaders who collectively can see the bigger picture now, envision a roadmap for the future to chart a balanced intelligent course. For the Israeli health system, the recent IJHPR article by Dreiher et al. will help, but it will be important, in the future, to analyse how Israel measures up on the framework outlined above. This ideally would be supplemented with a survey of key leaders for their assessment, and both would be a regular (say 5 yearly) exercise and would help inform future strategies.

Musikalisasi Syi’ir Aqoid Kiai Zaini Mun’im dan Budidaya Tanaman Obat Keluarga (Toga) di Pesantren Nurul Jadid Probolinggo

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-58
Author(s):  
Khodijatul Qodriyah
Keyword(s):  
Herbal Medicine ◽  
Herbal Medicines ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Middle Term

The lack of students’ knowledge of their teachers’ works and the less of their consciousness to the environment are crucial problems in some islamic boardingschool, especially in Nurul Jadid. These issues will be settled by implementation of religious preaching (dakwah) with poem (syi’ir) in Syu’abul Iman of Kiai Zaini Mun’im and prefentive action to the illness through herbal medicines of family crops medicine (tanaman obat keluarga). The program is undertaken with some phases, including planting family crops medicine, making herbal medicines, musicalisation of poem in book of Syu’abul Iman, socialization of the herbal medicine and musical poem of Syu’abul Iman. These phases have been structured with long-term, middle-term, and short-term programs which were finished during approximately 4 months (Augustus – November 2019). The involvement of many parties, such as activists of environment in Nurul Jadid, has strongly influenced on the successful implementation of these programs.Keywords: Family Crops Medicine, Nurul Jadid Islamic Boardingschool, Book of Syu’abul Iman

The Future of Muslim Education in the United States: An Agenda for Research

2003 ◽  
Vol 20 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 46-82
Author(s):  
Fathi Malkawi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
American Education ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Muslim Community ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Future ◽  
Muslim Education ◽  
Future Plans

This paper addresses some of the Muslim community’s concerns regarding its children’s education and reflects upon how education has shaped the position of other communities in American history. It argues that the future of Muslim education will be influenced directly by the present realities and future trends within American education in general, and, more importantly, by the well-calculated and informed short-term and long-term decisions and future plans taken by the Muslim community. The paper identifies some areas in which a wellestablished knowledge base is critical to making decisions, and calls for serious research to be undertaken to furnish this base.

scholarly journals A palace fit for the future: Desirability in temporal work

2021 ◽  
pp. 147612702110120
Author(s):  
Siavash Alimadadi ◽  
Andrew Davies ◽  
Fredrik Tell
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
The Past ◽  
Renewal Program ◽  
The Future ◽  
Depth Study ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Future Outcomes ◽  
Pluralistic Contexts

Research on the strategic organization of time often assumes that collective efforts are motivated by and oriented toward achieving desirable, although not necessarily well-defined, future states. In situations surrounded by uncertainty where work has to proceed urgently to avoid an impending disaster, however, temporal work is guided by engaging with both desirable and undesirable future outcomes. Drawing on a real-time, in-depth study of the inception of the Restoration and Renewal program of the Palace of Westminster, we investigate how organizational actors develop a strategy for an uncertain and highly contested future while safeguarding ongoing operations in the present and preserving the heritage of the past. Anticipation of undesirable future events played a crucial role in mobilizing collective efforts to move forward. We develop a model of future desirability in temporal work to identify how actors construct, link, and navigate interpretations of desirable and undesirable futures in their attempts to create a viable path of action. By conceptualizing temporal work based on the phenomenological quality of the future, we advance understanding of the strategic organization of time in pluralistic contexts characterized by uncertainty and urgency.

scholarly journals The Function of Casual Sex Action and Inaction Regret: A Longitudinal Investigation

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 147470492199833
Author(s):  
Leif Edward Ottesen Kennair ◽  
Trond Viggo Grøntvedt ◽  
Mons Bendixen
Keyword(s):  
Casual Sex ◽  
Adaptive Function ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Behavioral Choices ◽  
Sexual Disgust ◽  
Sexual Regret ◽  
Adaptive Shifts ◽  
Sexual Strategies Theory

In several recent papers the sex difference in regret predicted by sexual strategies theory has been supported: men more than women report regret passing up short-term sexual opportunities (inaction regret), while women regret having had sexual encounters (action regret). However, the adaptive function of regret, to improve future behavioral choices, has not been tested. In this first longitudinal test of behavioral change following regret, we consider whether regret actually results in adaptive shifts of behavior: will men who regret passing up sex engage in more short-term sex following regret? Will women who regret short-term encounters either choose better quality partners, reduce number of one-night stands or shift their strategy to long-term relationships? Across two waves (NT1 = 399, 65.4% women and NT2 = 222, 66.2% women) students responded to questions about casual sex action regret and inaction regret, along with possible outcomes, intrapersonal traits, and concurrent contextual predictors. There was no clear evidence for the proposed functional shifts in sexual behavior. Casual sex regret was associated with respondent sex and stable individual differences, such as sociosexual attitudes, regret processing and metacognitions, but the effect of these predictors were not consistent across the two waves. Among the tested concurrent contextual predictors, sexual disgust was the most consistent across waves. Regret is considered a gauge of the value and quality of the short-term sexual encounter. However, tentatively we conclude that after this first test of function using longitudinal data, we find no evidence of a mating strategy shifting effect following sexual regret.

scholarly journals Strategic Thinking for Sustainability: A Review of 10 Strategies for Sustainable Mobility by Bus for Cities

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 4282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonzalo Fernandez-Sanchez ◽  
Alvaro Fernandez-Heredia
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Thinking ◽  
Sustainable Mobility ◽  
Compressed Natural Gas ◽  
Collective Transport ◽  
The Future ◽  
Urban Bus ◽  
Bus Service ◽  
Main Ideas

The sustainable mobility of the future comes about through sustainable ways of transport, such as walking, cycling, or collective transport. This includes the bus, the underground, and trains in big cities. This article reviews bus-related policies and initiatives worldwide. It also analyses ten cities looking at medium and long-term strategies for the urban bus service. The main ideas are: the forecasts for the use of the urban bus system indicate a significant increase in demand, therefore, there is a need for expanding the offered services; efforts to change the fleets towards Compressed Natural Gas and Electric vehicles; support of technological innovation for communication and accessibility; improving commercial speed and frequencies by infrastructure improvements, operation optimisation and technology; and, the link between these strategies and the air quality of cities. The transition towards a sustainable transport will happen based on the belief that the bus service is no longer the transport of the past or the present, but of the future.

scholarly journals MENEJMEN RISIKO DALAM PERFEKTIF ISLAM

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Supriyo Supriyo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Production System ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Islamic Perspective ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Future ◽  
Short Run ◽  
A Company

Human life with all its activities in order to meet the needs of life always will always faced the possibility of risk either directly or indirectly, can occur in the short term or long term. A possibility of the occurrence or risk had certainly will affect the activity to be done And adversely affect the economy of a family and even a company, if the risks that occur have a vital impact on the family or an organization. Many failures within a company's organization are due to unforeseen risks occurring as for example the company never thinks that a newly established company is still in the short run abruptly because a workforce lacking control in the production system creates a great fire and spends all and has a bad impact For the economy of a family and even a company, if the risks that occur have a vital impact on the family or an organization. Many failures within a company's organization are due to unforeseen risks occurring as for example the company never thinks that a newly established company is still in the short run abruptly because a workforce lacking control in the production system creates a terrible fire and consumes all the company's assets Newly established. Everyone or anyone else would not want the incident to happen and befall themselves and his business in the future. Keywords: Islamic perspective, Risk management

scholarly journals Time-conjunctive representations of future events

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuart Babcock ◽  
Marc Howard ◽  
Joseph McGuire
Keyword(s):  
Response Time ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Correct Item ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Temporal Relationships ◽  
The Future ◽  
Memory Representations ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Probe Letter ◽  
Rule Out

It is widely accepted that people can predict the relative imminence of future events. However, it is unknown whether the timing of future events is represented using only a "strength-like" estimate or if future events are represented conjunctively with their position on a mental timeline. We examined how people judge temporal relationships among anticipated future events using the novel Judgment of Anticipated Co-Occurence (JACO) task. Participants were initially trained on a stream of letters sampled from a probabilistically repeating sequence. During test trials, the stream was interrupted with pairs of probe letters and the participants' task was to choose the probe letter they expected to appear in the stream during a lagged target window 4-6 items (4.3-8.5 seconds) in the future. Participants performed above chance as they gained experience with the task. Because the correct item was sometimes the more imminent probe letter and other times the less imminent probe letter, these results rule out the possibility that participants relied solely on thresholding a strength-like estimate of temporal imminence. Rather, these results suggest that participants held 1) temporally organized predictions of the future letters in the stream, 2) a temporal estimate of the lagged target window, and 3) some means to compare the two and evaluate their temporal alignment. Response time increased with the lag to the more imminent probe letter, suggesting that participants accessed the future sequentially in a manner that mirrors scanning processes previously proposed to operate on memory representations in the short-term judgment of recency task.

scholarly journals ImmunoCAP® ISAC and Microtest for multiplex allergen testing in people with difficult to manage allergic disease: a systematic review and cost analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (67) ◽  
pp. 1-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Westwood ◽  
Bram Ramaekers ◽  
Shona Lang ◽  
Nigel Armstrong ◽  
Caro Noake ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Conference Proceedings ◽  
Citation Index ◽  
Clinical Effectiveness ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cost Analyses ◽  
Immunocap Isac

BackgroundAllergy is a form of immune-mediated exaggerated sensitivity (hypersensitivity) to a substance that is either inhaled, swallowed, injected or comes into contact with the skin. Foreign substances that provoke allergies are called allergens. It has been claimed that multiplex allergen testing may help in diagnosing the cause of symptoms in patients with an unclear cause of allergy or who are allergic to more than one substance.ObjectivesTo evaluate multiplex allergen testing [devices that can measure the presence of multiple immunoglobulin E (IgE) antibodies in a patient’s blood at the same time], by assessing (1) clinical effectiveness (allergy symptoms, incidence of acute exacerbations, mortality, adverse events of testing and treatment, health-care presentations or admissions, health-related quality of life); (2) effects on treatment (diet, immunotherapy medications, other potential testing); (3) any additional diagnostic information provided by multiplex allergen testing; and (4) cost-effectiveness (cost of different assessment strategies).MethodsFifteen databases were searched from 2005 to April 2015, including MEDLINE (via OvidSp), MEDLINE In-Process Citations, MEDLINE Daily Update, PubMed (National Library of Medicine), EMBASE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), Health Technology Assessment (HTA) database, Science Citation Index (SCI), Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science (CPCI-S), BIOSIS Previews, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) HTA programme, and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA); supplementary searches of conference proceedings and trials registries were performed. Review methods followed published guidance from the Cochrane Collaboration and the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, University of York, UK. The methodological quality of included studies was assessed using appropriate published tools or a review-specific tool designed by the project team. Studies were summarised in a narrative synthesis. Owing to a lack of data on the clinical effectiveness of multiplex allergen testing, no long-term cost-effectiveness model was developed. A conceptual model structure was developed and cost analyses were performed to examine the short-term costs of various possible diagnostic pathways.ResultsFifteen studies were included in the review. The very limited available data indicated that the addition of multiplex allergen testing [ImmunoCAP®Immuno Solid-phase Allergen Chip (ISAC), Thermo Fisher Scientific/Phadia AB, Uppsala, Sweden] to standard diagnostic work-up can change the clinicians’ views on the diagnosis, management and treatment of patients. There was some indication that the use of ImmunoCAP ISAC testing may be useful to guide decisions on the discontinuation of restrictive diets, the content of allergen-specific immunotherapy (SIT) prescriptions, and whether or not patients should receive SIT. However, none of the studies that we identified reported any information on clinical outcomes subsequent to changes in treatment or management. There was some evidence that ImmunoCAP ISAC may be useful for discriminating allergens that are structurally similar and are recognised by the same IgE antibody (cross-immunoreactive). No data were available for Microtest (Microtest Matrices Ltd, London, UK). Detailed cost analyses suggested that multiplex allergen testing would have to result in a substantial reduction of the proportions of patients receiving single IgE testing and oral food challenge tests in order to be cost-saving in the short term.ConclusionsNo recommendations for service provision can be made based on the analyses included in this report. It is suggested that a consensus-based protocol for the use of multiplex allergen testing be developed. The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the proposed protocol should then be assessed by comparing long-term clinical and quality of life outcomes and resource use in patients managed using the protocol with those managed using a standard diagnostic pathway.Study registrationThis study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015019739.FundingThis project was a Diagnostic Assessment Report commissioned by the NIHR HTA programme on behalf of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence.

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