Climatic niche of Selinum alatum (Apiaceae, Selineae), a new invasive plant species in Central Europe and its alterations according to the climate change scenarios: Are the European mountains threatened by invasion?

Abstract Background Invasive plant species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and human wellbeing worldwide. Climatically suitable ranges for invasive plant species are expected to expand due to future climate change. The identification of current invasions and potential range expansion of invasive plant species is required to plan for the management of these species. Here, we predicted climatically suitable habitats for 11 invasive plant species and calculated the potential species richness and their range expansions in different provinces of the Republic of Korea (ROK) under current and future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach. Results Based on the model predictions, areas of climatically suitable habitats for 90.9% of the invasive plant species are expected to retain current ecological niches and expand to include additional climatically suitable areas under future climate change scenarios. Species richness is predicted to be relatively high in the provinces of the western and southern regions (e.g., Jeollanam, Jeollabuk, and Chungcheongnam) under current climatic conditions. However, under future climates, richness in the provinces of the northern, eastern, and southeastern regions (e.g., Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi, Gyeongsangnam, Degue, Busan, and Ulsan) is estimated to increase up to 292%, 390.75%, and 468.06% by 2030, 2050, and 2080, respectively, compared with the current richness. Conclusions Our study revealed that the rates of introduction and dispersion of invasive plant species from the western and southern coasts are relatively high and are expanding across the ROK through different modes of dispersion. The negative impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem dynamics, and economy caused by invasive plant species will be high if preventive and eradication measures are not employed immediately. Thus, this study will be helpful to policymakers for the management of invasive plant species and the conservation of biodiversity.

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Responses of insect pests, pathogens, and invasive plant species to climate change in the forests of northeastern North America: What can we predict?This article is one of a selection of papers from NE Forests 2100: A Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts on Forests of the Northeastern US and Eastern Canada.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research ◽

10.1139/x08-171 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 39 (2) ◽

pp. 231-248 ◽

Cited By ~ 268

Author(s):

Jeffrey S. Dukes ◽

Jennifer Pontius ◽

David Orwig ◽

Jeffrey R. Garnas ◽

Vikki L. Rodgers ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Plant Species ◽

Invasive Plant ◽

Insect Pests ◽

Adelges Tsugae ◽

Pest Species ◽

Invasive Plant Species ◽

Eastern Canada ◽

Wide Range ◽

Nuisance Species

Climate models project that by 2100, the northeastern US and eastern Canada will warm by approximately 3–5 °C, with increased winter precipitation. These changes will affect trees directly and also indirectly through effects on “nuisance” species, such as insect pests, pathogens, and invasive plants. We review how basic ecological principles can be used to predict nuisance species’ responses to climate change and how this is likely to impact northeastern forests. We then examine in detail the potential responses of two pest species (hemlock woolly adelgid ( Adelges tsugae Annand) and forest tent caterpillar ( Malacosoma disstria Hubner)), two pathogens (armillaria root rot ( Armillaria spp.) and beech bark disease ( Cryptococcus fagisuga Lind. + Neonectria spp.)), and two invasive plant species (glossy buckthorn ( Frangula alnus Mill.) and oriental bittersweet ( Celastrus orbiculatus Thunb.)). Several of these species are likely to have stronger or more widespread effects on forest composition and structure under the projected climate. However, uncertainty pervades our predictions because we lack adequate data on the species and because some species depend on complex, incompletely understood, unstable relationships. While targeted research will increase our confidence in making predictions, some uncertainty will always persist. Therefore, we encourage policies that allow for this uncertainty by considering a wide range of possible scenarios.

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Changes in the potential distribution of invasive plant species in continental Spain in response to climate change

Plant Ecology & Diversity ◽

10.1080/17550874.2018.1507053 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 349-361 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Alejandro G. Fernández de Castro ◽

Alicia Navajas ◽

Jaime Fagúndez

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Plant Species ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Invasive Plant ◽

Invasive Plant Species

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Simulation of potential distribution patterns of the invasive plant species Xanthium spinosum L. (Bathurst burr) in Xinjiang under climate change

Acta Ecologica Sinica ◽

10.5846/stxb201802040299 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 39 (5) ◽

Author(s):

塞依丁·海米提 SAYIT Hamit ◽

努尔巴依·阿布都沙力克 NURBAY Abdushalih ◽

许仲林 XU Zhonglin ◽

阿尔曼·解思斯 ARMAN Jiesisi ◽

邵华 SHAO Hua ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Plant Species ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Invasive Plant ◽

Distribution Patterns ◽

Invasive Plant Species

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Assessing the risk of potentially invasive plant species in central Europe

Journal for Nature Conservation ◽

10.1016/j.jnc.2004.04.002 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 171-179 ◽

Cited By ~ 77

Author(s):

Ewald Weber ◽

Daniel Gut

Keyword(s):

Central Europe ◽

Plant Species ◽

Invasive Plant ◽

Invasive Plant Species

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Assessing distribution changes of selected native and alien invasive plant species under changing climatic conditions in Nyeri County, Kenya

10.1101/2020.08.25.265991 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Julius Maina Waititu ◽

Charles Ndegwa Mundia ◽

Arthur W Sichangi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Invasive Species ◽

Invasive Plant ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

The Other ◽

Range Shift ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Invasive Plant Species ◽

Species Management ◽

Study Species

AbstractChanges in climatic conditions increases the risks of native and alien taxa expanding in geographical range and causing habitat transformations. The role of climate change in enhancing bio-invasions in local natural environments need to be assessed to guide on effective species management policy formulations. In this present study, we used species presence records, predictor variables and an ensemble of General Circulation Models data to predict suitable ecological niches for five of the selected invasive plant species within Nyeri County, Kenya. We predicted species distributions under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emission scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. We analysed species distribution changes to identify invasive species requiring immediate management action. Our analysis indicated that three of the five study species were suitable in ~50% of the study area while the other two were suitable in ~30% under the current climate. Lantana camara L. and Solanum campylacanthum Hochst. ex A. Rich species would experience the largest range shift distance of ~6 – 10km and the largest habitat gain of ~12 – 33% in the future. Caesalpinia decapetala (Roth) Alston, Opuntia stricta (Haw.) Haw. and Senna didymobotrya (Fresen.) H.S. Irwin & Barneby species on the other hand would have a decline in habitat range under future climate change scenarios. Although, S. didymobotrya is considered a native species, it would lose half of its current suitable habitat in the future. Range shift analysis showed all study species would generally shift to the north west direction or towards the Aberdare ranges. From this study we conclude that invasive species management programs for smaller geographical areas ought to consider projecting species distributions under climate change scenarios to identify areas with high possible biodiversity changes. This would be important to conservationists when prioritizing management actions of invasive species in the region where data on invasive species is still limited.

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Geographic Distribution Shift of Invasive Plant Austroeupatorium inulifolium in the Future Climate Projection

Annual Research & Review in Biology ◽

10.9734/arrb/2021/v36i530373 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 38-47

Author(s):

Angga Yudaputra ◽

Izu Andry Fijridiyanto ◽

Inggit Puji Astuti ◽

Rizmoon Nurul Zulkarnaen ◽

Ade Yuswandi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Plant Species ◽

Geographic Distribution ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Invasive Plant ◽

Global Climate ◽

Invasive Plant Species ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact ◽

Occurrence Records

Aims: This study aims to predict the future geographic distribution shift of invasive plant species Austroeupathorium inulifolium as the impact of global climate change. Study Design: The rising temperature and precipitation change lead to the geographic distribution shift of organisms. A. inulifolium belongs to invasive plant species that often causes a substantial economic loss and ecological degradation in the invaded areas. Modelling of species distribution using the climate-based model could be used to understand the geographic distribution shift of invasive species in the future scenario under global climate change. Place and Duration of Study: Center for Plant Conservation and Botanic Gardens – LIPI and 6 months. Methodology: The total 2228 of occurrence records were derived from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database. The seven climatic variables were selected from 19 variables using a pairwise correlation test (vifcor) with a threshold >0.7. The ensemble model was used by combining Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Results: Both two models are well-performed either using AUC or TSS evaluation methods. RF and SVM have AUC >0.95, and TSS >0.8. The predicted current distribution tends to have larger distribution areas compared to observed occurrence records. The predicted future distribution seems to be shifted in several parts of North America and Europe. Conclusion: The geographic distribution of invasive plant species A. inulifolium will be shifted to the Northern part of globe in 2090. Mean temperature of driest quarter and precipitation of warmest quarter are the two most important variables that determine the distribution pattern of the A. inulifolium. The predictive distribution pattern of invasive plant A. inulifolium would be important to provide information about the impact of climate change to the geographic distribution shift of this species.

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