scholarly journals Development and validation of a clinical risk score to predict the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection from administrative data: A population-based cohort study from Italy

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0237202
Author(s):  
Valentina Orlando ◽  
Federico Rea ◽  
Laura Savaré ◽  
Ilaria Guarino ◽  
Sara Mucherino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Kidney Diseases ◽  
Conditional Logistic Regression ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Infection Risk ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Clinical Predictors ◽  
Retrospective Case ◽  
Campania Region ◽  
Increased Risk

Background The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic spread rapidly worldwide increasing exponentially in Italy. To date, there is lack of studies describing clinical characteristics of the people at high risk of infection. Hence, we aimed (i) to identify clinical predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection risk, (ii) to develop and validate a score predicting SARS-CoV-2 infection risk, and (iii) to compare it with unspecific scores. Methods Retrospective case-control study using administrative health-related database was carried out in Southern Italy (Campania region) among beneficiaries of Regional Health Service aged over than 30 years. For each person with SARS-CoV-2 confirmed infection (case), up to five controls were randomly matched for gender, age and municipality of residence. Odds ratios and 90% confidence intervals for associations between candidate predictors and risk of infection were estimated by means of conditional logistic regression. SARS-CoV-2 Infection Score (SIS) was developed by generating a total aggregate score obtained from assignment of a weight at each selected covariate using coefficients estimated from the model. Finally, the score was categorized by assigning increasing values from 1 to 4. Discriminant power was used to compare SIS performance with that of other comorbidity scores. Results Subjects suffering from diabetes, anaemias, Parkinson’s disease, mental disorders, cardiovascular and inflammatory bowel and kidney diseases showed increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Similar estimates were recorded for men and women and younger and older than 65 years. Fifteen conditions significantly contributed to the SIS. As SIS value increases, risk progressively increases, being odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection among people with the highest SIS value (SIS = 4) 1.74 times higher than those unaffected by any SIS contributing conditions (SIS = 1). Conclusion Conditions and diseases making people more vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 infection were identified by the current study. Our results support decision-makers in identifying high-risk people and adopting of preventive measures to minimize the spread of further epidemic waves.

scholarly journals Development and validation of a clinical risk score to predict the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection from administrative data: a population-based cohort study from Italy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentina Orlando ◽  
Federico Rea ◽  
Laura Savaré ◽  
Ilaria Guarino ◽  
Sara Mucherino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Kidney Diseases ◽  
Conditional Logistic Regression ◽  
Infection Risk ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Clinical Predictors ◽  
Retrospective Case ◽  
Campania Region ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Increased Risk

AbstractBackgroundThe novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic spread rapidly worldwide increasing exponentially in Italy. To date, there is lack of studies describing clinical characteristics of the population most at risk of infection. Hence, we aimed to identify clinical predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection risk and to develop and validate a score predicting SARS-CoV-2 infection risk comparing it with unspecific surrogates.MethodsRetrospective case/control study using administrative health-related database was carried out in Southern Italy (Campania region) among beneficiaries of Regional Health Service aged over than 30 years. For each subject with Covid-19 confirmed diagnosis (case), up to five controls were randomly matched for gender, age and municipality of residence. Odds ratios and 90% confidence intervals for associations between candidate predictors and risk of infection were estimated by means of conditional logistic regression. SARS-CoV-2 Infection Score (SIS), was developed by generating a total aggregate score obtained from assignment of a weight at each selected covariate using coefficients estimated from the model. Finally, the score was categorized by assigning increasing values from 1 to 4. SIS was validated by comparison with specific and unspecific predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection.ResultsSubjects suffering from diabetes, anaemias, Parkinson’s disease, mental disorders, cardiovascular and inflammatory bowel and kidney diseases showed increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Similar estimates were recorded for men and women and younger and older than 65 years. Fifteen conditions significantly contributed to the SIS. As SIS value increases, risk progressively increases, being odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection among people with the highest SIS value (SIS=4), 1.74 times higher than those unaffected by any SIS contributing conditions (SIS=1).ConclusionThis study identified conditions and diseases making individuals more vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our results are a decision-maker support tool for identifying population most at risk allowing adoption of preventive measures to minimize a potential new relapse damage.

scholarly journals Neurodevelopmental and Psychiatric Disorders in Females With Turner Syndrome: A Population-based Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanna Björlin Avdic ◽  
Agnieszka Butwicka ◽  
Anna Nordenström ◽  
Catarina Almqvist ◽  
Agneta Nordenskjöld ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Psychiatric Disorder ◽  
Psychiatric Disorders ◽  
Turner Syndrome ◽  
Psychotic Disorders ◽  
Conditional Logistic Regression ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Autism Spectrum ◽  
Retrospective Case ◽  
Clinical Criteria ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract Background: Turner syndrome is the result of a missing X chromosome, partially or completely, in phenotypic girls. This can cause an array of medical and developmental difficulties. The intelligence quote has previously been described as uneven but considered within normal range. Although a social, intellectual and psychiatric profile is described in females with Turner syndrome, it is unclear to what extent they meet the clinical criteria for neurodevelopmental or psychiatric diagnoses. The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of neurodevelopmental and psychiatric disorders in females with Turner syndrome. Methods: A retrospective case-control study was performed with a total of 1392 females with Turner syndrome identified through the Swedish National Patient Register and compared with 1:100 age- and sex matched controls from the general population. The association between Turner syndrome and diagnoses of neurodevelopmental and/ or psychiatric disorders were calculated using conditional logistic regression and is presented as estimated risk (Odds ratio, OR, 95% Confidence interval, CI) in females with Turner syndrome compared with matched controls. Results: Females with Turner syndrome had higher risk of any neurodevelopmental or psychiatric disorder (OR 1.37, 95% Cl 1.20-1.57), an eightfold (OR 8.59, 95% CI 6.58-11.20) increased risk of intellectual disability and a fourfold (OR 4.26, 95% CI 2.94-6.18) increased risk of autism spectrum disorder compared with the controls. In addition, females with Turner syndrome had an increased risk of a diagnosis of psychotic disorders (OR 1.98, 95% Cl 1.36-2.88), eating disorders (OR 2.03, 95% Cl 1.42-2.91) and behavioral disorders (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.35-2.99). Conclusions: Females with TS have an increased risk of being diagnosed with any neurodevelopmental and psychiatric disorder. This warrants extensive assessment of intellectual and cognitive functions from early ages and increased psychiatric vigilance should be a part of lifelong healthcare for females with TS.

Since blood transfusion is linked to the magnitude of the surgical procedure, comparing transfused patients to untransfused patients will always be confounded by infection risks due to factors related to the procedure. To control for these factors one must compare patients transfused with red cells from different sources or prepared in a manner which minimize infection risk. Patients transfused with homologous blood have infection rates several fold higher than recipients of equal values of autologous blood undergoing the same operative procedure (20-23). Homologous blood recipients have significantly longer hospital stays attributed to treating infections. The cost of a blood transfusion exceeds the cost of collection, storage and administration because of transfusion's association with length of stay. In this era of cost-containment the association with prolonged stay may ultimately curtail the use of blood. Homologous blood can be filtered to remove donor leukocytes which may be contributing to immune suppression and infection risk. A prospective randomized trial comparing the infection rates among colorectal cancer patients receiving filtered and unfiltered blood has been conducted (9). There were 17 infectious complications among the 56 recipients of whole blood and one infectious complication among the 48 recipients of filtered blood. Infections were prevented by the seemingly simplistic addition of a $25/filter to every bag of blood transfused. These clinical studies are very convincing: homologous blood transfusion is associated with increased risk of infection in every clinical situation examined. In multivariate analyses transfusion was a significant predictor of infection after consideration of other variables measured and in the majority of those studies transfusion was the single most significant factor. Patients receiving homologous blood exhibited an incidence of infectious complications that was approximately four times higher than patients receiving autologous blood. The association of transfusion with infection is found among patients undergoing surgery for cardiac, orthopedic and gastrointestinal disorders and for trauma as well as among unoperated patients transfused for bums and gastrointestinal bleeding. The observation that nosocomial infections are increased in these studies argues strongly that the association of transfusion with infection is not simply a reflection of transfusion as a marker of tissue destruction and contamination. Infections that develop in transfused patients away from the site of trauma or in the absence of trauma, cannot be attributed to the quantity of tissue destroyed or to the degree of bacterial contamination. Filtered blood can remove leukocytes and prevent postoperative infections. Since filtering blood can significantly reduce the incidence of infection among transfused patients, all transfused blood will be passing through filters in the very near future. EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES RELATING BLOOD TRANSFUSION TO INCREASED RISK OF INFECTION Patients are extremely heterogeneous and even in prospective randomized trials, factors which influence patients' participation affect the outcome despite double-blinding and randomization. In animal studies using syngeneic strains with identical housing, lighting, access to food and water, control over the extent of injury, use of antibiotics and exposure to other variables the influence of a single variable such as blood transfusion can be measured. Dr. Waymack's laboratory has intensively studied parameters which interact with transfusion in

1995 ◽  
pp. 296-296
Keyword(s):  
Blood Transfusion ◽  
Autologous Blood ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Infection Risk ◽  
Infectious Complications ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Homologous Blood ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Cost

scholarly journals Metabolome-defined obesity and the risk of future diabetes and mortality

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filip Ottosson ◽  
Einar Smith ◽  
Ulrika Ericson ◽  
Salvatore Di Somma ◽  
Paola Antonini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Normal Weight ◽  
Plasma Metabolites ◽  
Italian Population ◽  
Related Risk ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Future Diabetes

Background Obesity is a key risk factor for type 2 diabetes, however, up to 20% of patients are normal weight. Our aim was to identify metabolite patterns reproducibly predictive of BMI, and subsequently to test if lean individuals who carry an obese metabolome are at hidden high risk of obesity related diseases, such as diabetes. Methods We measured 109 metabolites in fasted plasma samples of 7663 individuals from two Swedish and one Italian population-based cohort. Ridge regression models were used to predict BMI using the plasma metabolites. Individuals with a predicted BMI either more than 5 kg/m2 higher (overestimated) or lower (underestimated) than their actual BMI were characterized as outliers and further investigated for obesity related risk factors and future risk of diabetes and mortality. Results The plasma metabolome could predict BMI in all cohorts (r2 = 0.48, 0.26 and 0.19). The overestimated group had a BMI similar to individuals correctly predicted as normal weight, similar waist circumference, were not more likely to change weight over time but had a 2 times higher risk of future diabetes and an 80 % increased risk of all-cause mortality. These associations remained after adjustments for obesity-related risk factors and lifestyle parameters. Conclusions We found that lean individuals with an obese metabolome, have an increased risk for diabetes and all-cause mortality compared to lean individuals with a healthy metabolome. Metabolomics may be used to identify hidden high-risk individuals, in order to initiate lifestyle and pharmacological interventions.

The Genes and Genetics of Malignant Melanoma

2002 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 229-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Gibbs ◽  
Benjamin M. R. Brady ◽  
William A. Robinson
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Sun Exposure ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Uv Exposure ◽  
Molecular Defect ◽  
Clinical Variables ◽  
Red Hair ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
History Of ◽  
Self Examination

Background: Population-based studies have identified several clinical variables associated with an increased risk of developing cutaneous melanoma that include phenotype, amount of and response to sun exposure, and family history. However, these observations are of limited relevance to clinical practice as the risk associated with each factor is individually modest and the characteristics of these variables lack precision when applied to a particular individual. Objective: To review the literature regarding recent advances made in the understanding of the genes and genetics of clinical variables associated with an increased risk of melanoma. Conclusion: Variants of the MC1R (melanocortin-1 receptor) have been identified as major determinants of high-risk phenotypes, such as red hair and pale skin, and the ability to tan in response to UV exposure. Several studies also suggest that such variants may increase melanoma risk independent of their contribution to phenotype. A strong genetic basis for both nevus density and size has been demonstrated and the link between nevi and the development of MM has become better defined. Finally, germline defects in several genes involved in cell cycle regulation, namely, p16 and CDK4, have been demonstrated in many familial melanoma kindreds. This progress has introduced the prospect of genetic testing as a means of identifying a limited number of high-risk individuals who can be targeted with regular screening and education regarding UV exposure and skin self-examination. Ultimately, through rational genetic therapy targeted to correcting the underlying molecular defect, altering the natural history of melanoma development may be possible.

scholarly journals Clinical significance of cerebral microbleeds on MRI: A comprehensive meta-analysis of risk of intracerebral hemorrhage, ischemic stroke, mortality, and dementia in cohort studies (v1)

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 454-468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Charidimou ◽  
Sara Shams ◽  
Jose R Romero ◽  
Jie Ding ◽  
Roland Veltkamp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Intracerebral Hemorrhage ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Cerebral Microbleeds ◽  
Clinical Settings ◽  
Memory Clinic ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Stroke Death

Background Cerebral microbleeds can confer a high risk of intracerebral hemorrhage, ischemic stroke, death and dementia, but estimated risks remain imprecise and often conflicting. We investigated the association between cerebral microbleeds presence and these outcomes in a large meta-analysis of all published cohorts including: ischemic stroke/TIA, memory clinic, “high risk” elderly populations, and healthy individuals in population-based studies. Methods Cohorts (with > 100 participants) that assessed cerebral microbleeds presence on MRI, with subsequent follow-up (≥3 months) were identified. The association between cerebral microbleeds and each of the outcomes (ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, death, and dementia) was quantified using random effects models of (a) unadjusted crude odds ratios and (b) covariate-adjusted hazard rations. Results We identified 31 cohorts ( n = 20,368): 19 ischemic stroke/TIA ( n = 7672), 4 memory clinic ( n = 1957), 3 high risk elderly ( n = 1458) and 5 population-based cohorts ( n = 11,722). Cerebral microbleeds were associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke (OR: 2.14; 95% CI: 1.58–2.89 and adj-HR: 2.09; 95% CI: 1.71–2.57), but the relative increase in future intracerebral hemorrhage risk was greater (OR: 4.65; 95% CI: 2.68–8.08 and adj-HR: 3.93; 95% CI: 2.71–5.69). Cerebral microbleeds were an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (adj-HR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.24–1.48). In three population-based studies, cerebral microbleeds were independently associated with incident dementia (adj-HR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.00–1.82). Results were overall consistent in analyses stratified by different populations, but with different degrees of heterogeneity. Conclusions Our meta-analysis shows that cerebral microbleeds predict an increased risk of stroke, death, and dementia and provides up-to-date effect sizes across different clinical settings. These pooled estimates can inform clinical decisions and trials, further supporting cerebral microbleeds role as biomarkers of underlying subclinical brain pathology in research and clinical settings.

scholarly journals The Role of Stroke as a Trigger for Incident Venous Thromboembolism: Results from a Population-based Case-Crossover Study

TH Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 03 (01) ◽  
pp. e50-e57
Author(s):  
Vânia Morelli ◽  
Joakim Sejrup ◽  
Birgit Småbrekke ◽  
Ludvig Rinde ◽  
Gro Grimnes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Acute Stroke ◽  
Crossover Study ◽  
Conditional Logistic Regression ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Red Blood Cell Transfusion ◽  
Odds Ratios ◽  
Case Crossover ◽  
Increased Risk

AbstractStroke is associated with a short-term increased risk of subsequent venous thromboembolism (VTE). It is unclear to what extent this association is mediated by stroke-related complications that are potential triggers for VTE, such as immobilization and infection. We aimed to investigate the role of acute stroke as a trigger for incident VTE while taking other concomitant VTE triggers into account. We conducted a population-based case-crossover study with 707 VTE patients. Triggers were registered during the 90 days before a VTE event (hazard period) and in four preceding 90-day control periods. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for VTE according to triggers. Stroke was registered in 30 of the 707 (4.2%) hazard periods and in 6 of the 2,828 (0.2%) control periods, resulting in a high risk of VTE, with odds ratios of 20.0 (95% CI: 8.3–48.1). After adjustments for immobilization and infection, odds ratios for VTE conferred by stroke were attenuated to 6.0 (95% CI: 1.6–22.1), and further to 4.0 (95% CI: 1.1–14.2) when other triggers (major surgery, red blood cell transfusion, trauma, and central venous catheter) were added to the regression model. A mediation analysis revealed that 67.8% of the total effect of stroke on VTE risk could be mediated through immobilization and infection. Analyses restricted to ischemic stroke yielded similar results. In conclusion, acute stroke was a trigger for VTE, and the association between stroke and VTE risk appeared to be largely mediated by immobilization and infection.

scholarly journals Population-based study of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and occupational lead exposure in Denmark

2019 ◽  
pp. oemed-2018-105469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aisha S Dickerson ◽  
Johnni Hansen ◽  
Aaron J Specht ◽  
Ole Gredal ◽  
Marc G Weisskopf
Keyword(s):  
Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis ◽  
Conditional Logistic Regression ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Population Based Study ◽  
Employment History ◽  
National Patient Registry ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
National Patient ◽  
Pb Exposure ◽  
Lateral Sclerosis

ObjectivesPrevious research has indicated links between lead (Pb) exposure and increased risk of neurodegenerative disorders, including amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). In this study, we evaluated the association between occupational Pb exposures and ALS.MethodsALS cases were ascertained through the Danish National Patient Registry from 1982 to 2013 and age and sex-matched to 100 controls. Using complete employment history since 1964 from the Danish Pension Fund, cumulative Pb exposure was estimated for each subject via a Danish job exposure matrix. Associations were evaluated using conditional logistic regression analyses and stratified by sex.ResultsFor men with >50% probability of exposure, there was an increase in odds of ALS for exposures in the 60th percentile or higher during any time 5 years prior to diagnosis (aOR: 1.35; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.76) and 10 years prior to diagnosis (aOR: 1.33; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.72). No significant associations were observed in women, and there were no linear trends seen for Pb exposures for either sex.ConclusionsOur study indicates an association between consistently higher occupational Pb exposures and ALS. These findings support those of previously reported associations between ALS and specific occupations that commonly experience Pb exposure.

Association Between Drug Exposure and Occurrence of Parkinsonism in Korea: A Population-Based Case-Control Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (11) ◽  
pp. 1102-1110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siin Kim ◽  
Sang-Myung Cheon ◽  
Hae Sun Suh
Keyword(s):  
Cumulative Dose ◽  
Drug Exposure ◽  
Case Control Study ◽  
Conditional Logistic Regression ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Drug Induced ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Control Study

Background: Although drug-induced parkinsonism is reversible in most cases, some patients can suffer from persistent/recurrent symptoms. Therefore, prevention is the most efficient way to manage drug-induced parkinsonism. However, there is a paucity of studies exploring the relationship between parkinsonism and drug exposure. Objective: To examine the association between drug exposure and the risk of parkinsonism using Korean population-based data. Methods: We conducted a matched case-control study using the National Health Insurance Service—National Sample Cohort database. Cases and controls were defined as individuals with and without parkinsonism, respectively, between 2007 and 2013. Cases and controls were matched for sex, age group, income, type of insurance, and Charlson comorbidity index. Drug exposures, including propulsives, antipsychotics, and flunarizine, were identified at 1 year before the first date of parkinsonism and stratified by recency and cumulative dose. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs. Results: We identified 5496 cases and 5496 controls. ORs for current use group of propulsives, antipsychotics, and flunarizine compared with those of the never use group were 2.812 (95% CI = 2.466-3.206), 3.009 (95% CI = 1.667-5.431), and 4.950 (95% CI = 2.711-9.037), respectively. ORs were greater in those more recently exposed and those exposed to higher cumulative doses. Conclusion and Relevance: At the population level, use of propulsives, antipsychotics, and flunarizine had a significant association with the increased risk of parkinsonism, depending on recency and cumulative dose. Drugs associated with parkinsonism should be used with careful monitoring to prevent drug-induced parkinsonism.

Disease-modifying drugs for multiple sclerosis and infection risk: a cohort study

2018 ◽  
Vol 89 (10) ◽  
pp. 1050-1056 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Maria Andreas Wijnands ◽  
Feng Zhu ◽  
Elaine Kingwell ◽  
John David Fisk ◽  
Charity Evans ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Sclerosis ◽  
First Generation ◽  
Second Generation ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Infection Risk ◽  
Disease Modifying Drugs ◽  
Drug Classes ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Disease Modifying ◽  
Status Index

ObjectiveLittle is known about disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) for multiple sclerosis (MS) and infection risk in clinical practice. We examined the association between DMTs and infection-related medical encounters.MethodsUsing population-based administrative data from British Columbia, Canada, we identified MS cases and followed them from their first demyelinating event (1996–2013) until emigration, death or study end (December 2013). Associations between DMT exposure (by DMT generation or class) and infection-related physician or hospital claims were assessed using recurrent time-to-events models, adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, index year and comorbidity count. Results were reported as adjusted HRs (aHRs).ResultsOf 6793 MS cases, followed for 8.5 years (mean), 1716 (25.3%) were DMT exposed. Relative to no DMT, exposure to any first-generation DMT (beta-interferon or glatiramer acetate) was not associated with infection-related physician claims (aHR: 0.96; 95% CI 0.89 to 1.02), nor was exposure to these drug classes when assessed separately. Exposure to any second-generation DMT (oral DMT or natalizumab) was associated with an increased hazard of an infection-related physician claim (aHR: 1.47; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.85); when assessed individually, the association was significant for natalizumab (aHR: 1.59; 95% CI 1.19 to 2.11) but not the oral DMTs (aHR: 1.17; 95% CI 0.88 to 1.56). While no DMTs were associated with infection-related hospital claims, these hospitalisations were also uncommon.ConclusionExposure to first-generation DMTs was not associated with an altered infection risk. However, exposure to the second-generation DMTs was, with natalizumab associated with a 59% increased risk of an infection-related physician claim. Continued pharmacovigilance is warranted, including an investigation of the DMT-associated infection burden on patient outcomes.

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