scholarly journals Investors’ exit timing of PPP projects based on escalation of commitment

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. e0253394
Author(s):  
Yinglin Wang ◽  
Jingyi Chen ◽  
Jicai Liu ◽  
Chuhan Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Capital ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Escalation Of Commitment ◽  
Model Combining ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
The Impact

Long project cycle and uncertainties are important characteristics of public-private partnership (PPP) projects. Since the introduction of PPP projects in China, the timing of capital withdrawal has become important. With the emergence of risk factors during the course of the project, it will face the problem of investment withdrawal by social capital financial investors. Escalation of commitment (EOC) refers to the erroneous behaviour of project decision makers who do not promptly withdraw from a project when they receive negative feedback and continue to invest resources in the project. EOC not only causes more unnecessary losses but also adversely affects decision makers. Therefore, it is crucial to clarify the impact of EOC on the choice of the exit timing of social capital. This article adopts literature survey method and quantitative analysis method: introducing the theory of maximization of income into the real option model, combining the net present value method with the binary tree option pricing model, constructing the decision-making model to analyze the exit timing of PPP social capital in the context of EOC. Then combined numerical simulation and empirical analysis to verify the effectiveness of the decision-making model, discussed the reasons why the social capital party chooses EOC, and proposes measures for controlling EOC. The higher the degree of completion of the project, the easier it is for the person in charge of the project to make inaccurate judgements about the project due to personal psychological factors, and the easier it is for EOC to occur. Therefore, after setting the minimum goal of the project, the decision maker needs to accurately evaluate the existing value of the project to avoid falling into decision-making errors.

scholarly journals Incorporating Overconfidence into Real Option Decision-Making Model of Metal Mineral Resources Mining Project

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian-bai Huang ◽  
Na Tan ◽  
Mei-rui Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Mineral Resources ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Evaluation Theory ◽  
Mining Project ◽  
Option Model ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
Psychological Bias

As for uncertainties and decision-makers’ overconfidence psychological bias, overconfidence has been incorporated into real option decision-making model of metal mineral resources mining to estimate its effect on decision-making of the project and thus a behavioral real option decision-making model of metal mineral resources mining based on overconfidence has been established. Furthermore, numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis have been conducted to verify the practicality of the model. Results show that model in this paper has greatly changed trigger value and option value of mineral resources mining project compared with traditional real option model, thus greatly changing optimal decision results. Incorporating overconfidence into real option decision-making model of metal mineral resources development is a crucial extension of project evaluation theory.

Students As Sequential Decision-Makers: Quantifying the Impact of Problem Knowledge and Process Deviation on the Achievement of Their Design Problem Objective

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murtuza Shergadwala ◽  
Ilias Bilionis ◽  
Jitesh H. Panchal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Design Process ◽  
Design Problem ◽  
Design Space ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Sequential Decision ◽  
Sequential Decisions ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
The Impact

Factors such as a student’s knowledge of the design problem and their deviation from a design process impact the achievement of their design problem objective. Typically, an instructor provides students with qualitative assessments of such factors. To provide accurate assessments, there is a need to quantify the impact of such factors in a design process. Moreover, design processes are iterative in nature. Therefore, the research question addressed in this study is, How can we quantify the impact of a student’s problem knowledge and their deviation from a design process, on the achievement of their design problem objective, in successive design iterations? We illustrate an approach in the context of a decision-making scenario. In the scenario, a student makes sequential decisions to optimize a mathematically unknown design objective with given constraints. Consequently, we utilize a decision-making model to abstract their design process. Their problem knowledge is quantified as their belief about the feasibility of the design space via a probability distribution. Their deviation from the decision-making model is quantified by introducing uncertainty in the model. We simulate cases where they have a combination of high (or low) knowledge of the design problem and high (or low) deviation in their design process. The results of our simulation study indicate that if students have a high (low) deviation from the modeled design process then we cannot (can) infer their knowledge of the design problem based on their problem objective achievement.

A decision making model based on fuzzy inference to predict the impact of SCOR® indicators on customer perceived value

2020 ◽  
Vol 223 ◽  
pp. 107520
Author(s):  
Lucas Gabriel Zanon ◽  
Rafael Ferro Munhoz Arantes ◽  
Lucas Daniel Del Rosso Calache ◽  
Luiz Cesar Ribeiro Carpinetti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Perceived Value ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Customer Perceived Value ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
The Impact

Decision rules, escalation of commitment and sensitivity to framing in group decision-making

2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (7) ◽  
pp. 1649-1668 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petru Lucian Curseu ◽  
Sandra G. L. Schruijer ◽  
Oana Catalina Fodor
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Rule ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Escalation Of Commitment ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Collaborative Decision

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the influence of collaborative and consultative decision rules on groups’ sensitivity to framing effect (FE) and escalation of commitment (EOC). Design/methodology/approach – In an experimental study (using a sample of 233 professionals with project management experience), the authors test the effects of collaborative and consultative decision rules on groups’ sensitivity to EOC and FE. The authors use four group decision-making tasks to evaluate decision consistency across gain/loss framed decision situations and six decision tasks to evaluate EOC for money as well as time as resources previously invested in the initial decisions. Findings – The results show that the collaborative decision rule increases sensitivity to EOC when financial resources are involved and decreases sensitivity to EOC when time is of essence. Moreover, the authors show that the collaborative decision rule decreases sensitivity to FE in group decision making. Research limitations/implications – The results have important implications for group rationality as an emergent group level competence by extending the insights concerning the impact of decision rules on emergent group level cognitive competencies. Due to the experimental nature of the design, the authors can probe the causal relations between the investigated variables, yet the authors cannot generalize the results to other settings. Practical implications – Managers can use the insights of this study in order to optimize the functioning of decision-making groups and to reduce their sensitivity to FEs and EOC. Originality/value – The study extends the research on group rationality and it is one of the few experimental attempts used to understand the role of decision rules on emergent group level rationality.

The impact on clinical practice of the 2015 reforms to the New South Wales Mental Health Act

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher James Ryan ◽  
Sascha Callaghan
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Persons With Disabilities ◽  
Mental Health Act ◽  
Recovery Movement ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
The Impact

Objectives: The Mental Health Act 2007 (NSW) ( MHA) was recently reformed in light of the recovery movement and the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. We analyse the changes and describe the impact that these reforms should have upon clinical practice. Conclusions: The principles of care and treatment added to the MHA place a strong onus on clinicians to monitor patients’ decision-making capacity, institute a supported decision-making model and obtain consent to any treatment proposed. Patients competently refusing treatment should only be subject to involuntary treatment in extraordinary circumstances. Even when patients incompetently refuse treatment, clinicians must make every effort reasonably practicable to tailor management plans to take account of any views and preferences expressed by them or made known via friends, family or advance statements.

scholarly journals A Decision-Making Model on the Impact of Vehicle Use on Urban Safety

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3585
Author(s):  
Dariusz Masłowski ◽  
Małgorzata Dendera-Gruszka ◽  
Ewa Kulińska
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Internal Combustion Engines ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Brake Pads ◽  
Wear And Tear ◽  
Urban Safety ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Urban Conditions ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
The Impact

In the current era of urban development, people are already using electric vehicles more and more often for transport purposes, which reduces negative impacts on the environment. However, there are still vehicles in towns and cities that run on ordinary internal combustion engines. Performing optimization measures on the operation of these vehicles improves their performance, which can result in positive sustainable development effects. This article presents measures to reduce the wear and tear of urban vehicles and outlines a decision model to determine which of the vehicle parts described suffer the most frequent wear and tear under urban conditions. The article presents a list of structural elements that are most affected by urban traffic, as well as corrective actions to improve such specialized vehicles. Based on the decision analysis, Rule 1 was eliminated as having the least significant impact on vehicle wear and tear, and the least significant impact on urban safety. On the other hand, the most worn-out elements were found to be gearboxes, clutches, bus levelling electronics, and brake pads and discs. The decision-making model made it possible to identify the factors which have the greatest impact on reducing safety in urban spaces.

scholarly journals A Multicriteria Decision Making Approach Based on Fuzzy Theory and Credibility Mechanism for Logistics Center Location Selection

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bowen Wang ◽  
Haitao Xiong ◽  
Chengrui Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Theory ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Location Selection ◽  
Logistics Center ◽  
Multicriteria Decision ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Center Location ◽  
Decision Making Model

As a hot topic in supply chain management, fuzzy method has been widely used in logistics center location selection to improve the reliability and suitability of the logistics center location selection with respect to the impacts of both qualitative and quantitative factors. However, it does not consider the consistency and the historical assessments accuracy of experts in predecisions. So this paper proposes a multicriteria decision making model based on credibility of decision makers by introducing priority of consistency and historical assessments accuracy mechanism into fuzzy multicriteria decision making approach. In this way, only decision makers who pass the credibility check are qualified to perform the further assessment. Finally, a practical example is analyzed to illustrate how to use the model. The result shows that the fuzzy multicriteria decision making model based on credibility mechanism can improve the reliability and suitability of site selection for the logistics center.

Fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making to identify the order of establishing temporary logistics hubs during disaster response

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajali Maharjan ◽  
Shinya Hanaoka
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Numerical Illustration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Post Disaster

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to reveal the importance of the order of establishment of temporary logistics hubs (TLHs) when resources (mobile storage units used as TLHs) are limited and to present the development and implementation of a methodology that determines the order of establishment of TLHs to support post-disaster decision making. Design/methodology/approach It employed a decision support system that considers multiple decision makers and subjective attributes, while also addressing the impreciseness inherent in post-disaster decision making for ordering the establishment of TLHs. To do so, an optimization model was combined with a fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making approach. A numerical illustration was performed using data from the April 2015 Nepal Earthquake. Findings The results showed the location and order of establishment of TLHs, and demonstrated the impact of decision makers’ opinions on the overall ordering. Research limitations/implications The study does not discuss the uncertain nature of the location problem and the potential need for relocation of TLHs. Practical implications This methodology offers managerial insights for post-disaster decision making when resources are limited and their effective utilization is vital. The results highlight the importance of considering the opinions of multiple actors/decision makers to enable coordination and avoid complication between the growing numbers of humanitarian responders during disaster response. Originality/value This study introduces the concept of the order of establishment of TLHs and demonstrates its importance when resources are limited. It develops and implements a methodology determining the order of establishment of TLHs to support post-disaster decision making.

Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making Method for Preference Conflicting with Heterogeneous Information

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai-Rong Liang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Objective Function ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Heterogeneous Information ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Attribute Weights ◽  
Relative Closeness ◽  
Decision Making Model

The aim of this article is to propose a multi-objective decision-making method for researching and solving multi-attribute heterogeneous group decision-making problems. This is in the case that the characters of the decision information and decision makers' preferences are heterogeneous, and the weight information is incomplete. In this method, the multi-objective decision-making model, which considers the alternatives decision relative closeness and the preference of heterogeneous degree of decision makers in the objective function, is put forward. In addition, this article uses the minimax method to derive the multi-objective decision-making model and obtain the attribute weights and decision makers weights, and then the optimal scheme is established. Finally, an illustrative example shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Decision-Making Model for Convention Site Selection

2012 ◽  
Vol 538-541 ◽  
pp. 895-900 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Chen Huang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Site Selection ◽  
Political Conflict ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
City Image ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
Hierarchy Process

A number of factors must be considered when selecting a convention site. Typically, most selections are based on the decision makers’ knowledge and experience, which may lead to biased decisions based on the decision makers’ subjective judgment. This study establishes decision-making evaluation factors and attributes for convention site selection based on a literature review. After surveying experts’ opinions using questionnaires, we employed the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) to analyze the weighting of the factors and attributes. The results show that of the five evaluation factors, site environment is the most important, followed by meeting and accommodation facilities, local support, extraconference opportunities, and costs. Additionally, the five most important attributes among the 20 evaluation attributes are the suitability of convention facilities, suitability and quality of local infrastructure, climate, city image, and political conflict or terrorist threats.

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