Exploring decision-making biases among Iranian entrepreneurs: some novel insights

Purpose Decision-making biases play decisive roles not only in entrepreneurs’ decisions but also in the fate of entrepreneurial businesses. While the extant literature in this regard is relatively rich, it has predominantly focused on certain biases like overconfidence and overoptimism at the expense of other possibly influential biases, which could influence entrepreneurial decisions. Thus, to address this serious research gap, this paper aims to explore four of the less-researched biases of escalation of commitment, the illusion of control, confirmation and the belief in the law of small numbers in entrepreneurial decisions. Design/methodology/approach By taking a qualitative approach, the data for this study were collected through face-to-face interviews with 19 Iranian habitual (experienced) entrepreneurs running small businesses and analyzed by a qualitative thematic analysis. Findings According to the results, the environmental uncertainty, the reluctance to lose face and the experiences of previous failures contributed to the escalation of commitment, while disregard for external factors beyond one’s control caused the illusion of control, factors like prior successful businesses in the same sector, looking for resorts to manage uncertainty, along with the decision to exploit opportunities resulted in the confirmation bias, while the expenses of conducting sweeping pilot tests in the market and the reluctance to reveal a business secret to the competitors were the main contributors of the belief in the law of small numbers. Originality/value This study is a pioneer in scrutinizing four less-researched but important biases in entrepreneurs and, thus extending the line of research in this regard.

ESCALATION OF COMMITMENT AND CEO DEPARTURES: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

The escalation of commitment process involves a decision-maker continuing commitment to an investment after receiving negative information. This study develops a principal-agent model to explore how escalation decisions are linked with departures of CEOs from the position. With asymmetric information, a CEO has an incentive to conceal prior decision errors by escalating commitment to failing investments and leaving the firm before the outcome of investment decisions is disclosed publicly. Results of empirical analysis based on a sample of over 3,000 US firms are consistent with the theory and demonstrate that firms’ reporting of low financial performance relative to their industry as well as initiation of new discontinued operations are preceded, and not followed, by unplanned CEO departures.

Escalation of Commitment: Supporting Role from Accountants

Previous research has mostly examined the phenomenon of escalation of commitment in the context of decision making by managers in an investment project. However, in the capital budgeting process, before making investment decisions managers tend to consider information produced by accountants. This study examines the phenomenon of escalation of commitment using the perspective of supporting role of accountants as the party that provides information for investment decision making by managers, especially in the presence of sunk costs. This study uses a laboratory experimental method. The sample in this study are 156 undergraduate students majoring in Accounting who had passed Financial Accounting and Management Accounting courses. Based on the results of the independent sample t-test, it shows that accountants who experienced sunk cost conditions tend to provide reports that directed managers towards escalation of commitment behavior compared to accountants who do not experience sunk cost conditions. The presence of sunk cost makes accountants have better mind frame to get the possibility of profit compared with a definite loss so that the decisions they make tend to provide reports that lead to the escalation of commitment behavior.

The Role of Ethical Environment in Reducing Escalation of Commitment Bias

Several empirical studies have shown that decision makers tend to experience an escalation of commitment bias, namely a tendency to continue investment projects that are less profitable, even though there is information of the less profitable project performance and that other available alternative investment opportunities are more profitable in the future. This study aims to improve the manager's decision making behavior model by considering the ethical environment as one of the factors that influence investment project evaluation decisions. More specifically, this study empirically examines the ethical environment as a strategy to reduce the tendency for escalation of commitment behavior. This study uses a laboratory experimental method with a 2 x 2 factorial experimental design between subject with adverse selection (present / absent) and ethical environment (strong / weak). The research sample consisted of 246 undergraduate and postgraduate students in Accounting and Management who acted as investment project managers. Based on ANOVA analysis results, it shows that managers who experience adverse selection conditions tend to continue unfavorable projects (conduct escalation of commitment). In addition, the results of this study also show that the tendency of managers to end investment projects that are not profitable for managers who are in a condition of a strong ethical environment will be greater when they experience adverse selection conditions compared to when they do not experience it.

Investors’ exit timing of PPP projects based on escalation of commitment

Long project cycle and uncertainties are important characteristics of public-private partnership (PPP) projects. Since the introduction of PPP projects in China, the timing of capital withdrawal has become important. With the emergence of risk factors during the course of the project, it will face the problem of investment withdrawal by social capital financial investors. Escalation of commitment (EOC) refers to the erroneous behaviour of project decision makers who do not promptly withdraw from a project when they receive negative feedback and continue to invest resources in the project. EOC not only causes more unnecessary losses but also adversely affects decision makers. Therefore, it is crucial to clarify the impact of EOC on the choice of the exit timing of social capital. This article adopts literature survey method and quantitative analysis method: introducing the theory of maximization of income into the real option model, combining the net present value method with the binary tree option pricing model, constructing the decision-making model to analyze the exit timing of PPP social capital in the context of EOC. Then combined numerical simulation and empirical analysis to verify the effectiveness of the decision-making model, discussed the reasons why the social capital party chooses EOC, and proposes measures for controlling EOC. The higher the degree of completion of the project, the easier it is for the person in charge of the project to make inaccurate judgements about the project due to personal psychological factors, and the easier it is for EOC to occur. Therefore, after setting the minimum goal of the project, the decision maker needs to accurately evaluate the existing value of the project to avoid falling into decision-making errors.

The Dark side of helping: Escalation of commitment

In the real world, employees may be presented with difficult tasks that could be tackled in multiple ways and with available resources. On top of this, with deadlines, few external resources, and other tasks that employees typically face, thinking tends to be narrowed and so do the actions that follow. This could lead to a persistent course of action that leads to failure. We call this situation escalation of commitment. When our coworkers offer help and we are stuck and have invested time and effort into near-impossible tasks, is it worth accepting this offer of help? Or, would we rather risk more time and resources and instead persist in solving this near impossible problem? In the latter option, the individual may experience burnout and stress. For the organization, deadlines would not be met, and objectives could not be accomplished. My research looks at these helping behaviours and whether they lead others astray in an escalation of commitment. Specifically, I predict that individuals who have invested in a failing course of action are less likely to abandon this path when they receive help from others. This intersection of escalation and helping behaviours are important because when employees attempt to help a coworker who is invested in an extremely difficult task, they may be doing more harm than good.