scholarly journals Incorporating Overconfidence into Real Option Decision-Making Model of Metal Mineral Resources Mining Project

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian-bai Huang ◽  
Na Tan ◽  
Mei-rui Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Mineral Resources ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Evaluation Theory ◽  
Mining Project ◽  
Option Model ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
Psychological Bias

As for uncertainties and decision-makers’ overconfidence psychological bias, overconfidence has been incorporated into real option decision-making model of metal mineral resources mining to estimate its effect on decision-making of the project and thus a behavioral real option decision-making model of metal mineral resources mining based on overconfidence has been established. Furthermore, numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis have been conducted to verify the practicality of the model. Results show that model in this paper has greatly changed trigger value and option value of mineral resources mining project compared with traditional real option model, thus greatly changing optimal decision results. Incorporating overconfidence into real option decision-making model of metal mineral resources development is a crucial extension of project evaluation theory.

scholarly journals Investors’ exit timing of PPP projects based on escalation of commitment

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. e0253394
Author(s):  
Yinglin Wang ◽  
Jingyi Chen ◽  
Jicai Liu ◽  
Chuhan Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Capital ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Escalation Of Commitment ◽  
Model Combining ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
The Impact

Long project cycle and uncertainties are important characteristics of public-private partnership (PPP) projects. Since the introduction of PPP projects in China, the timing of capital withdrawal has become important. With the emergence of risk factors during the course of the project, it will face the problem of investment withdrawal by social capital financial investors. Escalation of commitment (EOC) refers to the erroneous behaviour of project decision makers who do not promptly withdraw from a project when they receive negative feedback and continue to invest resources in the project. EOC not only causes more unnecessary losses but also adversely affects decision makers. Therefore, it is crucial to clarify the impact of EOC on the choice of the exit timing of social capital. This article adopts literature survey method and quantitative analysis method: introducing the theory of maximization of income into the real option model, combining the net present value method with the binary tree option pricing model, constructing the decision-making model to analyze the exit timing of PPP social capital in the context of EOC. Then combined numerical simulation and empirical analysis to verify the effectiveness of the decision-making model, discussed the reasons why the social capital party chooses EOC, and proposes measures for controlling EOC. The higher the degree of completion of the project, the easier it is for the person in charge of the project to make inaccurate judgements about the project due to personal psychological factors, and the easier it is for EOC to occur. Therefore, after setting the minimum goal of the project, the decision maker needs to accurately evaluate the existing value of the project to avoid falling into decision-making errors.

scholarly journals A Multicriteria Decision Making Approach Based on Fuzzy Theory and Credibility Mechanism for Logistics Center Location Selection

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bowen Wang ◽  
Haitao Xiong ◽  
Chengrui Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Theory ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Location Selection ◽  
Logistics Center ◽  
Multicriteria Decision ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Center Location ◽  
Decision Making Model

As a hot topic in supply chain management, fuzzy method has been widely used in logistics center location selection to improve the reliability and suitability of the logistics center location selection with respect to the impacts of both qualitative and quantitative factors. However, it does not consider the consistency and the historical assessments accuracy of experts in predecisions. So this paper proposes a multicriteria decision making model based on credibility of decision makers by introducing priority of consistency and historical assessments accuracy mechanism into fuzzy multicriteria decision making approach. In this way, only decision makers who pass the credibility check are qualified to perform the further assessment. Finally, a practical example is analyzed to illustrate how to use the model. The result shows that the fuzzy multicriteria decision making model based on credibility mechanism can improve the reliability and suitability of site selection for the logistics center.

An optimal decision making model for supporting week hospital management

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Domenico Conforti ◽  
Francesca Guerriero ◽  
Rosita Guido ◽  
Marco Matucci Cerinic ◽  
Maria Letizia Conforti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Hospital Management ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Optimal Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Model

Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making Method for Preference Conflicting with Heterogeneous Information

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai-Rong Liang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Objective Function ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Heterogeneous Information ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
Attribute Weights ◽  
Relative Closeness ◽  
Decision Making Model

The aim of this article is to propose a multi-objective decision-making method for researching and solving multi-attribute heterogeneous group decision-making problems. This is in the case that the characters of the decision information and decision makers' preferences are heterogeneous, and the weight information is incomplete. In this method, the multi-objective decision-making model, which considers the alternatives decision relative closeness and the preference of heterogeneous degree of decision makers in the objective function, is put forward. In addition, this article uses the minimax method to derive the multi-objective decision-making model and obtain the attribute weights and decision makers weights, and then the optimal scheme is established. Finally, an illustrative example shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Decision-Making Model for Convention Site Selection

2012 ◽  
Vol 538-541 ◽  
pp. 895-900 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Chen Huang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Site Selection ◽  
Political Conflict ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
City Image ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
Hierarchy Process

A number of factors must be considered when selecting a convention site. Typically, most selections are based on the decision makers’ knowledge and experience, which may lead to biased decisions based on the decision makers’ subjective judgment. This study establishes decision-making evaluation factors and attributes for convention site selection based on a literature review. After surveying experts’ opinions using questionnaires, we employed the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) to analyze the weighting of the factors and attributes. The results show that of the five evaluation factors, site environment is the most important, followed by meeting and accommodation facilities, local support, extraconference opportunities, and costs. Additionally, the five most important attributes among the 20 evaluation attributes are the suitability of convention facilities, suitability and quality of local infrastructure, climate, city image, and political conflict or terrorist threats.

Constructing a Hierarchy and Simulation Model to Assess Digital Recorder Sensor System

2012 ◽  
Vol 263-266 ◽  
pp. 857-860
Author(s):  
Kuang Jung Tseng
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Sensor System ◽  
Model Following ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Digital Recorder ◽  
Decision Making Model

This work presents group decision making model, following a university safety evaluation to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Importantly, the proposed model can assist university decision makers to buy the feasibility of digital recorder sensor system, making it highly applicable for academic and commercial purposes.

A Decision Model for Selecting the Optimum Oil Production Profile Using Multi Criteria Decision Making and Social Choice Theory

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samira Keivanpour ◽  
Hassan Haleh ◽  
Hamed Shakouri Ganjavi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Choice ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Social Choice Theory ◽  
Oil Field ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Statistic Model ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
Decision Making Model

Applying a MCDM model has many benefits for decision makers in the course of oil field master development plans preparation and evaluation. In this study, a multi-criteria decision making model is proposed in order to achieve an optimum production profile. The most important criteria and parameters for selection of best production profile are identified. These parameters are derived by several interviews with Iranian oil Industry’s experts. The candidate alternatives for production profile are ranked using a combination of group decision making approach and social choice theory. The degree of group consensus is evaluated by using a statistic model to confirm the validity of decision making model.

Group Decision Model Based on Ordered Weighted Distance to Aid Decisions on Logistics

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (02) ◽  
pp. 233-254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Leao E Silva Filho ◽  
Danielle Costa Morais
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Decision Model ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Weighted Distance ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Decision Making Model

This paper presents a group decision-making model using a distance aggregator based on Ordered Weighted Distance (OWD) which offers a solution that can reduce disagreement between decision makers (DMs). This paper discusses decision rules and sets out measures to evaluate compensatory effects that have a bearing on DMs’ opinions. The model uses formulations of distances to reveal the differences in opinion among DMs and discusses the meanings of distance and the information presented by each DM. Finally, a case study of a logistics problem is used to illustrate how the model is applied.

scholarly journals Multi-Attribute Decision Making Based on Probabilistic Neutrosophic Hesitant Fuzzy Choquet Aggregation Operators

Symmetry ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Songtao Shao ◽  
Xiaohong Zhang ◽  
Quan Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Aggregation Operators ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Third Party Logistics ◽  
The Third Party Logistics ◽  
External Space ◽  
The Third ◽  
Multi Attribute Decision Making

Take the third-party logistics providers (3PLs) as an example, according to the characteristics of correlation between attributes in multi-attribute decision-making, two Choquet aggregation operators adoping probabilistic neutrosophic hesitation fuzzy elements (PNHFEs) are proposed to cope with the situations of correlation among criterions. This measure not only provides support for the correlation phenomenon between internal attributes, but also fully concerns the incidental uncertainty of the external space. Our goal is to make it easier for decision makers to cope with this uncertainty, thus we establish the notion of probabilistic neutrosophic hesitant fuzzy Choquet averaging (geometric) (PNHFCOA, PNHFCOG) operator. Based on this foundation, a method for aggregating decision makers’ information is proposed, and then the optimal decision scheme is obtained. Finally, an example of selecting optimal 3PL is given to demonstrate the objectivity of the above-mentioned standpoint.

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