scholarly journals Analysis and Prediction of Alerts in Perimeter Intrusion Detection System

2020 ◽  
Vol 70 (6) ◽  
pp. 619-625
Author(s):  
Rizul Aggarwal ◽  
Anjali Goswami ◽  
Jitender Kumar ◽  
Gwyneth Abdiel Chullai
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Intrusion Detection ◽  
Intrusion Detection System ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Detection System ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Prediction

Perimeter surveillance systems play an important role in the safety and security of the armed forces. These systems tend to generate alerts in advent of anomalous situations, which require human intervention. The challenge is the generation of false alerts or alert flooding which makes these systems inefficient. In this paper, we focus on short-term as well as long-term prediction of alerts in the perimeter intrusion detection system. We have explored the dependent and independent aspects of the alert data generated over a period of time. Short-term prediction is realized by exploiting the independent aspect of data by narrowing it down to a time-series problem. Time-series analysis is performed by extracting the statistical information from the historical alert data. A dual-stage approach is employed for analyzing the time-series data and support vector regression is used as the regression technique. It is helpful to predict the number of alerts for the nth hour. Additionally, to understand the dependent aspect, we have investigated that the deployment environment has an impact on the alerts generated. Long-term predictions are made by extracting the features based on the deployment environment and training the dataset using different regression models. Also, we have compared the predicted and expected alerts to recognize anomalous behaviour. This will help in realizing the situations of alert flooding over the potential threat.

scholarly journals Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Chaolong ◽  
Xu Weixiang ◽  
Wang Futian ◽  
Wang Hanning
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Measuring Point ◽  
Trend Forecasting ◽  
Changing Trend ◽  
Track Irregularity ◽  
Linear Differential

The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM(1,1)is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

scholarly journals Long Short Term Memory Recurrent Network for Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Modelling

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.15) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Said Jadid Abdulkadir ◽  
Hitham Alhussian ◽  
Muhammad Nazmi ◽  
Asim A Elsheikh
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Forecasting time-series data are imperative especially when planning is required through modelling using uncertain knowledge of future events. Recurrent neural network models have been applied in the industry and outperform standard artificial neural networks in forecasting, but fail in long term time-series forecasting due to the vanishing gradient problem. This study offers a robust solution that can be implemented for long-term forecasting using a special architecture of recurrent neural network known as Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model to overcome the vanishing gradient problem. LSTM is specially designed to avoid the long-term dependency problem as their default behavior. Empirical analysis is performed using quantitative forecasting metrics and comparative model performance on the forecasted outputs. An evaluation analysis is performed to validate that the LSTM model provides better forecasted outputs on Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) in terms of error metrics as compared to other forecasting models.  

scholarly journals Early-Stage Gas Identification Using Convolutional Long Short-Term Neural Network with Sensor Array Time Series Data

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (14) ◽  
pp. 4826
Author(s):  
Kai Zhou ◽  
Yixin Liu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Sensor Array ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Identification Performance ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Gas Identification

Gas identification/classification through pattern recognition techniques based on gas sensor arrays often requires the equilibrium responses or the full traces of time-series data of the sensor array. Leveraging upon the diverse gas sensing kinetics behaviors measured via the sensor array, a computational intelligence- based meta-model is proposed to automatically conduct the feature extraction and subsequent gas identification using time-series data during the transitional phase before reaching equilibrium. The time-series data contains implicit temporal dependency/correlation that is worth being characterized to enhance the gas identification performance and reliability. In this context, a tailored approach so-called convolutional long short-term memory (CLSTM) neural network is developed to perform the identification task incorporating temporal characteristics within time-series data. This novel approach shows the enhanced accuracy and robustness as compared to the baseline models, i.e., multilayer perceptron (MLP) and support vector machine (SVM) through the comprehensive statistical examination. Specifically, the classification accuracy of CLSTM reaches as high as 96%, regardless of the operating condition specified. More importantly, the excellent gas identification performance of CLSTM at early stages of gas exposure indicates its practical significance in future real-time applications. The promise of the proposed method has been clearly illustrated through both the internal and external validations in the systematic case investigation.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DAN COUNTRY RISK TERHADAP INVESTASI PORTOFOLIO ASING DI INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 135
Author(s):  
Halifah Hadi ◽  
Hasdi Aimon ◽  
Dewi Zaini Putri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Country Risk ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Stability

The reseach aims to explain the effect of country risk and variabels macroeconomics to the foreign portofolio invesment in Indonesia in short term and long term. The analysis takes time series time series data from 2006 quarter 1 through 2016 quarter 4by using Error Correction Model (ECM). The source of data are Badan Pusat Statistik, Bank Indonesia, FX Sauder and World Bank. The result are in the short term the exchange rate and economic growth effect the shock that will influence the foreign portofolio invesment. In the long trem the inflation, interst rate, money supply and country risk influence on foreign portofolio invesment significanly. The suggestion in this research is, the goverment sould keep the stability balance of payment in Indonesia .Any change, the condition of  balance of payments effect appreciation and depreciation to Rupiah. To increase the economic growth in Indonesia, goverment could increasing the fiscal income and PMDN realization that will  increase the enterprises productivity.

scholarly journals GLOBALISASI EKONOMI DAN PENGANGGURAN: STUDI KASUS INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 263
Author(s):  
Ari Setyawan ◽  
I Wayan Suparta ◽  
Neli Aida
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Economic Globalization ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Government

ABSTRACTThis study aims to examine the effect of economic globalization on the unemployment rate in Indonesia and the relationship of other macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation rate, and real wage with unemployment. The data used is in the form of annual time series data from 1986 to 2018, whose research results are analyzed using the ARDL method. This study concludes that economic globalization can reduce the unemployment rate in Indonesia in the short term, although in the long term, it increases the unemployment rate. Economic growth and inflation in the short and long term have not been able to reduce the current unemployment rate, while the increase in real wages has reduced the unemployment rate in the short term, although not in the long term. By looking at these results, we need to be wary of economic globalization because economic globalization has a destructive impact in the long term. So that concrete and consistent efforts are needed from the government, the private sector, and other stakeholders so that Indonesia gets the maximum benefit from economic globalization, especially in job creation and reducing unemployment.JEL : B22, E22.Keywords : unemployment, economic globalization, economic growth, inflation, real wages. ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan melihat pengaruh tingkat globalisasi ekonomi terhadap tingkat pengangguran di Indonesia serta hubungan variabel makroekonomi lain seperti tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat inflasi dan tingkat upah riil dengan tingkat pengangguran. Data yang dipergunakan berupa data time series tahunan dari periode 1986 hingga 2018 yang hasil penelitiannya dianalisis menggunakan metode ARDL. Kesimpulan penelitian ini yaitu globalisasi ekonomi mampu mengurangi tingkat pengangguran di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek meskipun dalam jangka panjang malah meningkatkan tingkat pengangguran. Pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi baik dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjangnya belum mampu menurunkan tingkat pengangguran yang ada sedangkan naiknya upah riil mampu menurunkan tingkat pengangguran dalam jangka pendek meskipun tidak dalam jangka panjang. Dengan melihat hasil ini, kita perlu waspada terhadap globalisasi ekonomi karena globalisasi ekonomi ini memiliki dampak buruk dalam jangka panjang sehingga dibutuhkan upaya kongkrit dan konsisten baik dari pemerintah, swasta maupun para stakeholder lain agar Indonesia memperoleh manfaat yang sebesar-besarnya dari globalisasi ekonomi khusunya dalam upaya penciptaan lapangan kerja dan mengurangi pengangguran.

Predicting Time Series from Short-Term High-Dimensional Data

2014 ◽  
Vol 24 (12) ◽  
pp. 1430033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huanfei Ma ◽  
Tianshou Zhou ◽  
Kazuyuki Aihara ◽  
Luonan Chen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
High Dimensional Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
High Dimensional ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Low Dimensional ◽  
Low Dimensional Dynamics ◽  
Term Data

The prediction of future values of time series is a challenging task in many fields. In particular, making prediction based on short-term data is believed to be difficult. Here, we propose a method to predict systems' low-dimensional dynamics from high-dimensional but short-term data. Intuitively, it can be considered as a transformation from the inter-variable information of the observed high-dimensional data into the corresponding low-dimensional but long-term data, thereby equivalent to prediction of time series data. Technically, this method can be viewed as an inverse implementation of delayed embedding reconstruction. Both methods and algorithms are developed. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical result, benchmark examples and real-world problems from various fields are studied.

scholarly journals LSTM-Based Forecasting for Urban Construction Waste Generation

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 8555
Author(s):  
Li Huang ◽  
Ting Cai ◽  
Ya Zhu ◽  
Yuliang Zhu ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Structure Design ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Waste Generation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Construction Waste

Accurate forecasts of construction waste are important for recycling the waste and formulating relevant governmental policies. Deficiencies in reliable forecasting methods and historical data hinder the prediction of this waste in long- or short-term planning. To effectively forecast construction waste, a time-series forecasting method is proposed in this study, based on a three-layer long short-term memory (LSTM) network and univariate time-series data with limited sample points. This method involves network structure design and implementation algorithms for network training and the forecasting process. Numerical experiments were performed with statistical construction waste data for Shanghai and Hong Kong. Compared with other time-series forecasting models such as ridge regression (RR), support vector regression (SVR), and back-propagation neural networks (BPNN), this paper demonstrates that the proposed LSTM-based forecasting model is effective and accurate in predicting construction waste generation.

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