Is 75% of the Sales Promotion Bump Due to Brand Switching? No, Only 33% Is

2003 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 481-491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harald J. Van Heerde ◽  
Sachin Gupta ◽  
Dick R. Wittink
Keyword(s):  
Sales Promotion ◽  
The Other ◽  
Brand Switching ◽  
Scanner Panel Data ◽  
Demand Effects ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Scanner Panel ◽  
Analytical Expressions ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Sales Increase

Several researchers have decomposed sales promotion elasticities based on household scanner-panel data. A key result is that the majority of the sales promotion elasticity, approximately 74% on average, is attributed to secondary demand effects (brand switching) and the remainder is attributed to primary demand effects (timing acceleration and quantity increases). The authors demonstrate that this result does not imply that if a brand gains 100 units in sales during a promotion, the other brands in the category lose 74 units. The authors offer a complementary decomposition measure based on unit sales. The measure shows the ratio of the current cross-brand unit sales loss to the current own-brand unit sales gain during promotion; the authors report empirical results for this measure. They also derive analytical expressions that transform the elasticity decomposition into a decomposition of unit sales effects. These expressions show the nature of the difference between the two decompositions. To gain insight into the magnitude of the difference, the authors apply these expressions to previously reported elasticity decomposition results and find that approximately 33% of the unit sales increase is attributable to losses incurred by other brands in the same category.

A Relationship between Market Share Elasticities and Brand Switching Probabilities

1998 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randolph E. Bucklin ◽  
Gary J. Russell ◽  
V. Srinivasan
Keyword(s):  
Market Share ◽  
Logit Model ◽  
Laundry Detergent ◽  
Brand Switching ◽  
Switching Matrix ◽  
Scanner Panel Data ◽  
Liquid Laundry Detergent ◽  
Heterogeneous Consumers ◽  
Scanner Panel ◽  
The Relationship

The authors derive a theoretical relationship between the aggregate market share elasticity matrix and the aggregate brand switching matrix on the basis of a logit model of heterogeneous consumers choosing among competing brands in a product class. Aggregate cross-elasticities are shown to be proportional (through a single scaling constant) to their corresponding aggregate row-conditional brand switching probabilities. Aggregate own-elasticities are shown to be proportional (through the negative of the same scaling constant) to one minus their corresponding aggregate row-conditional repeat purchase probabilities. An empirical analysis conducted on household scanner panel data in the liquid laundry detergent category shows that the theoretical correspondence holds as a very good approximation. An illustrative use of the relationship in estimating aggregate (store-level) models of market share indicates that the relationship helps improve predictive validity in a holdout period.

Implications for Asymmetry, Nonproportionality, and Heterogeneity in Brand Switching from Piece-wise Exponential Mixture Hazard Models

1995 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 457-462 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Wedel ◽  
Wagner A. Kamakura ◽  
Wayne S. Desarbo ◽  
Frenkel Ter Hofstede
Keyword(s):  
Switching Behavior ◽  
Hazard Models ◽  
Buying Behavior ◽  
Brand Switching ◽  
Exponential Mixture ◽  
Scanner Panel Data ◽  
Marketing Variables ◽  
Scanner Panel ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Better Than

The authors develop a class of mixtures of piece-wise exponential hazard models for the analysis of brand switching behavior. The models enable the effects of marketing variables to change nonproportionally over time and can, simultaneously, be used to identify segments among which switching and repeat buying behavior differ. Several forms of asymmetry in brand switching are accommodated. The authors provide an application to the analysis of scanner panel data on ketchup, which illustrates the implications for asymmetry, nonproportionality, and heterogeneity. The results show that the model predicts purchases and purchase timing in holdout data better than the models proposed by Kamakura and Russell (1989) and Vilcassim and Jain (1991).

Understanding the Course and State of Evolutionary Optimizations Using Visualization: Ten Years of Industry Experience with Evolutionary Algorithms

2006 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hartmut Pohlheim
Keyword(s):  
Evolutionary Algorithms ◽  
Optimization Problems ◽  
The Other ◽  
Simple Manner ◽  
Extra Information ◽  
Real World Applications ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Visualization Techniques ◽  
Industry Experience ◽  
Insight Into

Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) are widely employed to solve a broad range of optimization problems. Even though they work in an algorithmically simple manner, it is not always easy to understand what is going on during a particular optimization run. It is especially desirable to gain further insight into the state and course of the algorithm if the optimization does not yield the expected results or if we are not sure whether the result achieved is really the best result possible. During an optimization run an EA produces a vast amount of data. The extraction of useful information is a nontrivial task. In this article, we review visualization methods used to extract this useful information. We also demonstrate the application of visualization techniques and explain how they help us to understand the course and state of the EA. This extra information gained by the use of visualization techniques is often the difference between a good result and a very good result. In complex real-world applications, merely achieving a good result often means that the approach has failed. On the other hand, a success means large gains in productivity or safety or a decrease in costs.

Effect of the vessel wall on the stability of floating bodies

1982 ◽  
Vol 379 (1777) ◽  
pp. 345-365 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Cylinder ◽  
Approximate Expression ◽  
Cylindrical Vessel ◽  
The Other ◽  
Fluid Interface ◽  
Floating Bodies ◽  
Restoring Force ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Analytical Expressions

The restoring force acting on a vertical cylinder floating or suspended at the liquid interface in a vertical cylindrical vessel is determined when the cylinder is displaced horizontally from the symmetrical position. When both cylinder and vessel walls are wetted, or unwetted, the force urges the inner cylinder towards the wall, but when one wall is wetted and the other not the force acts to recentralize the inner cylinder when the cylinder radii are small. This latter force, although smaller than the former, may be used to centralize a body floating in a cylindrical vessel. When both walls are wetted, or unwetted, an approximate expression for the restoring force f acting on a cylinder of radius r i displaced by a distance δ from the axis of the vessel of radius r o is f = — 4 πσ 2 r i δ / ∆ ρ g ∆ r 3 [1 - ( δ 2 / ∆ r 2 )] 3/2 where σ is the tension of the fluid-fluid interface, ∆ ρ is the density difference between the phases and ∆ r the difference between the radii r o and r i . When one wall is wetted and the other is not, ∆ r may be replaced by r o + r i in the above equation when r o and r i are small, and f then becomes positive. The expression for wetted walls has been experimentally confirmed for different liquids and cylinder geometries. Limiting solutions have been derived for small gap widths and small displacements of the inner cylinder. The latter solution agrees well with the more exact analytical expressions which are also derived.

Impact of Sales Promotions on when, what, and how Much to Buy

1988 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 342-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunil Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Logit Model ◽  
Brand Choice ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Sales Promotion ◽  
Time Model ◽  
Consumer Decisions ◽  
Brand Switching ◽  
Cumulative Logit Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sales Increase

The effectiveness of a sales promotion can be examined by decomposing the sales “bump” during the promotion period into sales increase due to brand switching, purchase time acceleration, and stockpiling. The author proposes a method for such a decomposition whereby brand sales are considered the result of consumer decisions about when, what, and how much to buy. The impact of marketing variables on these three consumer decisions is captured by an Erlang-2 interpurchase time model, a multinomial logit model of brand choice, and a cumulative logit model of purchase quantity. The models are estimated with IRI scanner panel data for regular ground coffee. The results indicate that more than 84% of the sales increase due to promotion comes from brand switching (a very small part of which may be switching between different sizes of the same brand). Purchase acceleration in time accounts for less than 14% of the sales increase, whereas stockpiling due to promotion is a negligible phenomenon accounting for less than 2% of the sales increase.

A Perturbation Method for the Forced Response of a Weakly Bilinear Oscillator

1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip V. Bayly
Keyword(s):  
Small Parameter ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Structural Members ◽  
Stiffness Coefficients ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Mass Spring ◽  
Analytical Expressions ◽  
Harmonic Resonance ◽  
Super Harmonic Resonance ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract Closed-form analytical expressions are obtained for the response of a weakly bilinear oscillator to harmonic forcing. Bilinear systems are used to model cracked beams and rotors; the bilinear oscillator considered here is a lightly damped mass-spring assembly. The spring is linear except that its stiffness is slightly higher when the displacement of the mass is negative. The response is obtained for three ranges of forcing frequencies: far from resonances, and near primary and superharmonic resonances. The difference between the two linear stiffness coefficients is used as the small parameter, ϵ, in a modified perturbation analysis. Of all the behavior analyzed, the response near a super-harmonic resonance of order 2 is the most markedly affected by the weak bilinearity. These results provide insight into the observed behavior of cracked structural members and shafts.

The Effect of Promotion on Consumption: Buying More and Consuming it Faster

1998 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 390-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kusum L. Ailawadi ◽  
Scott A. Neslin
Keyword(s):  
Discriminant Validity ◽  
Sales Promotion ◽  
Conventional Model ◽  
Product Categories ◽  
Packaged Goods ◽  
Consumption Rates ◽  
Scanner Panel Data ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
Scanner Panel

The authors empirically demonstrate the existence of flexible consumption rates in packaged-goods products, how this phenomenon can be modeled, and its importance in assessing the effectiveness of sales promotion. They specify an incidence, choice, and quantity model in which category consumption varies with the level of household inventory. The authors use two different functions to relate consumption rates to household inventory and estimate the models using scanner panel data from two product categories: yogurt and ketchup. Both functions provide a significantly better fit than a conventional model, which assumes a constant daily usage rate. They also have strong discriminant validity; yogurt consumption is found to be much more flexible with respect to inventory than ketchup consumption is. The authors use a Monte Carlo simulation to decompose the long-term impact of promotion into brand switching and consumption effects and conclude with the implications of their findings for researchers and managers.

A Bird in the Hand Isn’t Good for Long

2018 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Scherbaum ◽  
Simon Frisch ◽  
Maja Dshemuchadse
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Control ◽  
The Other ◽  
Decision Task ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Additional Time ◽  
Control Processes ◽  
Folk Wisdom ◽  
Study Participants ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract. Folk wisdom tells us that additional time to make a decision helps us to refrain from the first impulse to take the bird in the hand. However, the question why the time to decide plays an important role is still unanswered. Here we distinguish two explanations, one based on a bias in value accumulation that has to be overcome with time, the other based on cognitive control processes that need time to set in. In an intertemporal decision task, we use mouse tracking to study participants’ responses to options’ values and delays which were presented sequentially. We find that the information about options’ delays does indeed lead to an immediate bias that is controlled afterwards, matching the prediction of control processes needed to counter initial impulses. Hence, by using a dynamic measure, we provide insight into the processes underlying short-term oriented choices in intertemporal decision making.

Enhancement of ADP-induced Platelet Aggregation by Adrenaline in Vivo and Its Prevention

1973 ◽  
Vol 29 (02) ◽  
pp. 490-498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroh Yamazaki ◽  
Itsuro Kobayashi ◽  
Tadahiro Sano ◽  
Takio Shimamoto
Keyword(s):  
Platelet Count ◽  
Platelet Aggregation ◽  
Platelet Rich Plasma ◽  
The Other ◽  
Endothelial Surface ◽  
Important Interaction ◽  
Blood Coagulability ◽  
The Difference

SummaryThe authors previously reported a transient decrease in adhesive platelet count and an enhancement of blood coagulability after administration of a small amount of adrenaline (0.1-1 µg per Kg, i. v.) in man and rabbit. In such circumstances, the sensitivity of platelets to aggregation induced by ADP was studied by an optical density method. Five minutes after i. v. injection of 1 µg per Kg of adrenaline in 10 rabbits, intensity of platelet aggregation increased to 115.1 ± 4.9% (mean ± S. E.) by 10∼5 molar, 121.8 ± 7.8% by 3 × 10-6 molar and 129.4 ± 12.8% of the value before the injection by 10”6 molar ADP. The difference was statistically significant (P<0.01-0.05). The above change was not observed in each group of rabbits injected with saline, 1 µg per Kg of 1-noradrenaline or 0.1 and 10 µg per Kg of adrenaline. Also, it was prevented by oral administration of 10 mg per Kg of phenoxybenzamine or propranolol or aspirin or pyridinolcarbamate 3 hours before the challenge. On the other hand, the enhancement of ADP-induced platelet aggregation was not observed in vitro, when 10-5 or 3 × 10-6 molar and 129.4 ± 12.8% of the value before 10∼6 molar ADP was added to citrated platelet rich plasma (CPRP) of rabbit after incubation at 37°C for 30 second with 0.01, 0.1, 1, 10 or 100 µg per ml of adrenaline or noradrenaline. These results suggest an important interaction between endothelial surface and platelets in connection with the enhancement of ADP-induced platelet aggregation by adrenaline in vivo.

Correlational Methods for Analysis of Dance Movements

2011 ◽  
Vol 29 (supplement) ◽  
pp. 283-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy R. Brick ◽  
Steven M. Boker
Keyword(s):  
Motion Capture ◽  
Mirror Symmetry ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
The Other ◽  
Free Form ◽  
Motion Capture Data ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Dance Movements ◽  
Time Lagged ◽  
Insight Into

Among the qualities that distinguish dance from other types of human behavior and interaction are the creation and breaking of synchrony and symmetry. The combination of symmetry and synchrony can provide complex interactions. For example, two dancers might make very different movements, slowing each time the other sped up: a mirror symmetry of velocity. Examining patterns of synchrony and symmetry can provide insight into both the artistic nature of the dance, and the nature of the perceptions and responses of the dancers. However, such complex symmetries are often difficult to quantify. This paper presents three methods – Generalized Local Linear Approximation, Time-lagged Autocorrelation, and Windowed Cross-correlation – for the exploration of symmetry and synchrony in motion-capture data as is it applied to dance and illustrate these with examples from a study of free-form dance. Combined, these techniques provide powerful tools for the examination of the structure of symmetry and synchrony in dance.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document