Finanzkrisen in Deutschland – Vergleichsperspektiven und Ursachenforschung

Author(s):  
Harald Wixforth

AbstractThe current financial crisis has provoked keen discussion on how to analyze and compare similar types of crises, in order that we might be able to draw lessons from history. This article attempts to outline different instruments of comparison. It also tries to compare the German 1931 banking crisis to the current crisis, in order to highlight parallels and differences.

2009 ◽  
Vol 207 ◽  
pp. 39-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Tatiana Fic ◽  
Dawn Holland

The current financial crisis has evolved slowly over the past eighteen months, and policy reactions have responded to events. In August 2007 it became clear that a number of banks had lost some of their capital base as a result of defaults on home loans in the US. The impacts of these defaults had been spread across the Atlantic as they were contained within bundles of assets that had been constructed into securities and sold to European banks. By the autumn of 2007 it was clear that there was a strong risk of a banking crisis, as discussed by Barrell and Holland (2007) in the October 2007 Review. We considered that this was a risk, but that the costs were so obviously large that policymakers would strive to avoid it, and hence it was not our main scenario. We were wrong on both counts, and a crisis at least as large as that we discussed emerged after the US authorities let Lehman Brothers fail in September 2008. We argued that a crisis would lead to a reduction in growth of a cumulated 3 per cent in the US and a cumulated loss of about 2 ½ per cent in the UK and the Euro Area. If a crisis burst, we expected US interest rates to reach zero in 2009 with deflation toward the end of the year.


1998 ◽  
Vol 165 ◽  
pp. 66-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcus Miller ◽  
Pongsak Luangaram

No one can deny the outstanding success of the East Asian economies in the last two decades of rapid economic growth backed by surging capital inflows. Key questions posed by the current crisis are: what went wrong, and why? how to fix it? and, how to prevent a recurrence? To answer them, the article begins with a brief overview of recent developments in the miracle economies of East Asia, focusing mainly on Korea, Indonesia and Thailand. We focus too on some of the shadows that came to darken the glittering success story—on declining competitiveness and growing financial vulnerability; and on regulatory failures in banking. Then we take a leaf from Charles Kindleberger's book (1996) on Panics, Manias and Crashes and discuss—with historical precedents—various types of financial crisis: speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates, asset bubbles, stock market crashes and bank runs. Based on the distinction between illiquidity, due to a shortage of cash, and insolvency arising from a failure of economic prospects, we go on to outline three main views of the current crisis.First that it was simply due to reversal of capital flows, to a failure of collective action on the part of creditors which could and should have been solved by supplying extra liquidity—or by forcing creditors to roll over their loans. Second the view that the miracle had grown into a bubble that had finally had to burst: so the problem was essentially one of insolvency. Finally the view that we prefer, that the panic was not wholly groundless (and rescue efforts were bound to be difficult) mainly because weak regulation combined with implicit deposit guarantees had left local bankers free to gamble with the money that global capital markets had poured into their parlours. Panic set in when foreign depositors realised that there were not enough dollar reserves left for the guarantee to be credible. This account (championed most notably by Paul Krugman of MIT) involves both illiquidity and insolvency and helps to explain why the IMF was unwilling simply to throw money at the problem.Why did the crisis spread like wildfire around the region? Was it because a bank run due to shaky fundamentals in one country was imitated elsewhere, as investors joined the herd heading for the exit? This and other accounts of contagion are discussed before turning to ideas for crisis prevention and management, and a brief account of future prospects for the region. The article concludes by outlining immediate steps to resolve the current financial crisis and by proposing international monetary reforms to prevent a recurrence.


2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 319-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bill Francis ◽  
Iftekhar Hasan ◽  
Qiang Wu

SYNOPSIS Using the recent financial crisis as a natural quasi-experiment we test whether, and to what extent, conservative accounting affects shareholder value. We find that there is a significantly positive and economically meaningful relation between conservatism and firm stock performance during the current crisis. The result holds for alternative measures of conservatism and is validated in a series of robustness checks. We further find that the relation between conservatism and firm value is more pronounced for firms with weaker corporate governance or higher information asymmetry. Overall, our paper complements LaFond and Watts (2008) by providing empirical evidence to their argument that conservatism is an efficient governance mechanism to mitigate information risk and control for agency problems, and that shareholders benefit from it. JEL Classifications: M41; M48; G01.


2021 ◽  
Vol 122 (1) ◽  
pp. 170-177
Author(s):  
John McDonnell

The banking crisis and the pandemic have both demonstrated the potential for a progressive paradigm shift that could break with the hegemony of neoliberalism over Britain’s political economy. The Covid pandemic has demonstrated how many of the ideas and policies that formed the basis of the Labour Party manifestos of 2017 and 2019 are essential to tackling the current crisis of the pandemic and also for tackling the next crisis, which is the existential threat of climate change. For those on the left and progressives, the task is to discuss and plan the economy and society that will translate these lessons into a vision for the future of our society and into the concrete policy programme needed to achieve that vision. This article is based on a lecture given at the Marx Memorial Library on 23 June 2020 and we are pleased to reproduce it here.


Author(s):  
Ali Ari ◽  
Raif Cergibozan ◽  
Sedat Demir

The last two decades characterized by financial crisis episodes have seen a proliferation of empirical studies. These early warning system models allowed researchers to distinguish certain key determinants of financial crises, and helped predicting and preventing the occurrence of some crises. However, crises continue to arise as recently illustrated by the onset of the global financial crisis. This clarifies that there are still a lot to learn about financial crises. In this sense, this paper aimed to compare the performance of several currency and banking crisis indicators within the Turkish economy which underwent severe financial crises in the last twenty years. Different currency crisis indicators performed well by detecting the 1994, 2001 and 2008 currency crises, while banking crisis indicators had significant inconsistencies. However, two banking crisis indicators we developed stand for valuable efforts in dating banking crises by constructing aggregate indexes, and contribute significantly to the empirical crisis literature.


2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 560-570
Author(s):  
Gerardo del Cerro Santamaría

This article discusses the consequences of the financial crisis that started in 2008 in the West, and particularly in the United States, as a manifestation of neoliberal capitalism’s multiple failures. In doing so, it focuses on the scholarly contributions of Manuel Castells and his colleagues in two important books: Aftermath: The Cultures of the Economic Crisis (2012) and Another Economy is Possible (2017). Both books are collective works led and edited by Castells. Also included in the review is a third book by Castells, Rupture: The Crisis of Liberal Democracy (2018), which can be read as a statement on some of the political consequences of the 2008 financial crisis and a report on the current crisis of liberal democracy. The contention is that Castells et al. make an important contribution to the socio-economic literature on the financial crisis, its consequences, and the interpretation of the societal changes that ensued and are key to understand our contemporary world. Such contribution, as observed in the three books under review, can be summarized as follows: (1) Castells and colleagues provide cases and examples from around the world in a broad comparative fashion, thus expanding our understanding of a crisis that was essentially a crisis of the West with ramifications in other countries but never a truly global crisis. (2) The approach of Castells and his colleagues is interdisciplinary and goes beyond purely economic arguments to include sociological, political and cultural ideas and insights that help us understand the complexity of the historical period under analysis; readers develop an awareness of the systemic character of the crisis, where all events were closely interrelated; in particular, both micro and macro processes leading to the crisis converged into a mutually dialectical and reinforcing relationship that warrants the contention by the authors that ‘economies’ are ‘cultures.’ (3) The authors in both Aftermath and Another Economy is Possible focus on the (long) aftermath of the crisis, which is still ongoing as of September 2019 around the world; in fact, one of Castells’ main points is that the financial crisis brought about irreversible societal change, ongoing and clearly visible today, as it triggered a significant restructuring of global informational capitalism. (4) The authors provide a focus on one of the reactive consequences of the crisis: alternative economic practices developing in the aftermath of the crisis, under the premise that we might be witnessing the rise of a new economic model based on new, alternative values. (5) Castells provides a discussion (in Rupture) of aspects of the contemporary political landscape a decade after the outset of the financial crisis and the Great Recession.


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