scholarly journals THE WEAK FORM MARKET EFFICIENCY IN THE MSCI ETF INDICES: CONVENTIONAL AND THE FOURIER UNIT ROOT TEST ON THE DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 409-423
Author(s):  
Sümeyra GAZEL
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Exchange Traded Funds ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Daily Data

In this study, weak form efficiency of the Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Index of developed and developing countries is tested. The Fourier Unit Root test, which does not lose its predictive power in terms of structural break date, number and form, is used on daily data. Also, conventional unit root tests are used for comparison between two different tests. Analysis results indicate common findings in some countries for both unit root testing. However, the Fourier unit root test results relatively more support the assumption of efficient market hypothesis that developed countries may be more efficient than developing countries.

scholarly journals Random Walk Hypothesis for Stock Prices in Fiji

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-88
Author(s):  
Janesh Sami
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Random Walk Hypothesis ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Historical Movement

The main goal of this paper is to investigate the random walk hypothesis in Fiji using monthly data from January 2000 to October 2017. Applying augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF 1979, 1981) and Phillips-Perron (1988), Zivot-Andrews (1992), and Narayan and Popp (2010) unit root tests, this study finds that stock prices is best characterized as non-stationary. The estimated multiple structural break dates in the stock prices corresponds with devaluation of Fijian dollar by 20 percent in 2009 and General Elections in September 2014, which Fiji First Party won by majority votes. The empirical results indicate that stock prices are best characterized as a unit root (random walk) process, indicating that the weak-form efficient market hypothesis holds in Fiji’s stock market. Hence, it will be difficult to predict future returns based on historical movement of stock prices in Fiji’s stock market.

An Empirical Study on Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Case of Indian Capital Markets

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anjala Kalsie
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Efficient Markets ◽  
Test Unit ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Univariate Time Series

The objective of this paper is to study the efficiency of Indian stock markets during the period 2001-2011. The weak form of efficient markets is extensively tested using NIFTY and 6 major NSE sectoral indices Pharma, IT, MNC, Bank, FMCG and Nifty Junior. Univariate time series analysis of indices returns is carried using tests for randomness / non-stationarity - runs test, unit root testing. ACF, correlograms and other relevant statistical methods. The study concludes that Indian markets are inefficient in its weak form for the study period.

An investigation of time varying market efficiency: evidence from STOXX Europe Christian index

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 631-643
Author(s):  
Tayyaba Yousaf ◽  
Sadia Farooq ◽  
Ahmed Muneeb Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
New Information ◽  
Academic Researchers ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the STOXX Europe Christian price index (SECI) follows the premise of efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Design/methodology/approach The study used daily data of SECI for the period of 15 years as its launch date i.e. 31 December 2004 to 31 December 2019. Data are analyzed by taking a full-length sample and fixed-length subsample. For subsample, the data are divided into five subsamples of three years each. Subsample analysis is important for analyzing time varying efficiency of the series, as the market is said to follow EMH if it is being efficient throughout the sample. Both type of samples is examined through linear tests including autocorrelations test and variance ratio (VR) test. Findings Tests applied conclude that SECI is weak-form efficient, which means that the prices of the index include all the relevant past information and immediately react to new information. Hence, the investors cannot earn abnormal returns. Originality/value Religion-based indices grasped the attention of investors, policymakers and academic researchers because of increased concern over ethics in business. Though the impact of religion on the economy have been studied in many ways but the efficiency of religion-based indices have been less explored. The current study is primary in its nature as it analysis the efficiency of SECI. This index is important to explore because Christianity is the world’s top religion with 2.3 billion followers around the globe.

A revisit of the unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth and Inflation of Pakistan: Whether Structural break or unit root?

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 80-92
Author(s):  
Sara Muhammadullah ◽  
Amena Urooj ◽  
Faridoon Khan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

The study investigates the query of structural break or unit root considering four macroeconomic indicators; unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth, and inflation rate of Pakistan. The previous studies create ambiguity regarding the stationarity and non-stationarity of these variables. We employ Zivot & Andrews (1992) unit root test and Step Indicator Saturation (SIS) method for multiple break detection in mean. GDP growth and inflation rate are stationary at level whereas unit root tests fail to reject the null hypothesis of the unemployment rate and interest rate at level. However, Zivot and Andrew unit root test with a single endogenous break indicates that the unemployment rate and interest rate are stationary at level with a single endogenous break. On the other hand, the SIS method reveals that the series are stationary with multiple structural breaks. It is inferred that it is inappropriate to take the first difference of the unemployment rate and interest rate to attain stationarity. The results of this study confirmed that there exist multiple breaks in the macroeconomic variables considered in the context of Pakistan.

scholarly journals Transportation Dynamic Behaviour of Structural Break and Consumer Price Index

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 283-290
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Dynamic Behaviour ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Break Points

This paper studies the dynamic behaviour of transportation price in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah from 2004 to 2015 using disaggregated monthly price data of consumer price index (CPI). For that, unit root tests and cointegration tests with structural breaks are incorporated. The findings indicated that (i) both Zivot and Andrews unit root test and Perron unit root test provided fairly similar results; most of the break points occurred in 2008, (ii) the variables cointegrate in the Johansen cointegration test which indicates that there is a long-run relationship and (iii) the Gregory and Hansen test also demonstrated some form of cointegration with structural break(s), especially in 2008. Overall, this study intends to match the structural break points with the comparable critical economic events

The effects of shocks on Turkish tourism demand: Evidence using panel unit root test

2020 ◽  
pp. 135481661989983 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yagmur Saglam ◽  
Apostolos Ampountolas
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Panel Unit Root Test ◽  
Panel Unit Root

This empirical study examines the stationarity of tourism demand in Turkey in response to the effects of structural breaks, which indicate external or internal shocks based on tourist arrivals from 12 Slavic-speaking countries between 2000 and 2016. We employed a panel unit root test based on the Flexible Fourier approach, which Karul enhanced to allow gradual shifts and a smooth transition process; structural break dates come from the Carrion-i-Silvestre unit root test framework. The empirical findings indicate that there are differences in the effects of these structural breaks across the 12 countries in question.

scholarly journals The Analysis of External Debt Sustainability by Periodic Unit Root Test with Structural Break: The Case of Turkey

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Ozlem Goktas ◽  
Aycan Hepsag
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Periodic Process ◽  
Periodic Behavior ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
The Third

<p>The aim of this study is to investigate external debt sustainability using the periodic unit root<br />rest with structural break which is introduced by Boswijk and Franses (1995) and then<br />developed by Evans (2006). In order to test the hypothesis, we use quarterly Turkish data<br />measuring the ratio of external debt stock to GDP that covers the period from the first quarter<br />of 1990 to the third quarter of 2012. The empirical results support that the ratio of external<br />debt stock to GDP has the periodic behavior under structural change and follows a<br />nonstationary periodic process with structural break. According to the empirical findings, it is<br />argued that the external debt is unsustainable in Turkey.</p>

scholarly journals Efficient Market Hypotheses Controversy and Nigerian Stock Exchange Relations

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
General Meeting ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Price Series

This study; Nigerian Stock Exchange and Efficient Market Hypothesis was done using All Share Index (ASI) with daily data from January 02, 2014 to May 20, 2019 (1333 observations) and annual data from 1985 to 2018 (34 observations) collected from the Nigeria Stock Market fact books. The study employed three analytical methods namely the unit root test, GARCH Model and the Autocorrelation cum patial autocorrelation method for the assessment of weak form hypothesis on the daily and annual all share index in the Nigerian Stock market. The results of these evaluations indicated a significant relationship between the price series and their lagged values implying that stock price series do not follow a random walk process in Nigerian stock market. Thus, affirming that the Nigeria Stock Exchange is not efficient in weak form. In the light of this, the researchers recommend that the supervisory and regulatory authorities should strengthen the Nigerian Stock Market through palliating its regulations pertaining to transparency of information management rules such as market barriers and stringent listing requirement, publication of accounts, notices of annual general meeting and the like.

scholarly journals A Different Look at Cointegration Relationship between Quarterly Inflation Rates and Growth via Seasonal Integration Tests

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sera Şanlı ◽  
Mehmet Özmen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Maximum Order ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Testing Sequence ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Cointegration Relationship ◽  
Integration Analysis

Detecting the direction of inflation-growth relationship has been a controversial issue in terms of the theoretical framework, notedly since the rise of Mundell-Tobin effect which is based upon the assumption of substitutability between money and capital. In this study, it has been aimed to investigate the cointegrating relationship and its direction between inflation and economic growth covering the period 1998Q1:2014Q4 for Turkey as grounded on the testing sequence that is illustrated by Ilmakunnas (1990) in order to handle unit root testing in a seasonal context by testing the appropriate order of differencing and concerns with the case where SI(2,1) (seasonally integrated of order (2,1)) is the maximum order of seasonal integration. It has been also utilized from ADF unit root test and DHF, HEGY & OCSB seasonal unit root tests in seasonal integration analysis. In the study, five cointegration regressions have been considered in the level, seasonally averaged, quarterly differenced, first differenced and twice differenced forms and two series have been found to have the same degree of seasonal integration as SI(1,1). Applying various residual tests have revealed the presence of a cointegrating relationship between two variables. In addition, the inflation-growth relationship in Turkey has been concluded to perform in an opposite direction.

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