Cohort Fertility Decline in Low Fertility Countries: Decomposition Using Parity Progression Ratios

En el análisis de la fecundidad baja cobra importancia una serie de conceptos básicos como la progresión de paridad a partir de tablas de vida –aquí llamadas tablas de fecundidad–, y la consideración de los efectos de los cambios de calendario sobre las tasas de fecundidad observadas. En este artículo se presenta la génesis histórica de estos conceptos y su relación con otros similares –como la traslación demográfica–, acompañados de ejemplos de aplicación en el análisis de la fecundidad de periodo y de cohorte. Algunas investigaciones recientes, entre las que se incluyen las de los autores, permiten hoy en día obtener intensidades de fecundidad ajustadas por calendario, a partir de las cuales se pueden conseguir todo tipo de medidas de fecundidad de periodo libres de efectos calendario o proyectar la fecundidad a partir del método de progresión de paridad. AbstractIn a low fertility context there are a number of basic concepts that become more relevant for the analysis of fertility, such as parity progression analysis through life-table methods, here called fertility tables, and the consideration of the effects of tempo change on observed fertility rates. In this articles, these ideas are presented together with their historical genesis and their relationship to similar concepts such as demographic translation, together with examples of application to both period and cohort fertility analysis. Recent research, including research done by the authors, allow us today to estimate tempo-adjusted fertility intensities that can be used to obtain any tempo-adjusted period fertility measure or parity-progression fertility projections.

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Cohort Fertility, Parity Progression, and Family Size in Former Yugoslav Countries

Comparative Population Studies ◽

10.12765/cpos-2020-18 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 45 ◽

Author(s):

Ivan Čipin ◽

Kryštof Zeman ◽

Petra Međimurec

Keyword(s):

Census Data ◽

Low Fertility ◽

High Fertility ◽

Parity Progression ◽

Fertility Behaviour ◽

Transition Pathways ◽

Cohort Fertility ◽

Political Economic ◽

Special Case ◽

Rapid Transformation

Yugoslavia was a union of countries at the crossroads of cultures, rich in diversity, bringing together heterogeneous populations with very different demographic transition pathways, particularly with respect to fertility. This paper studies the trends and patterns of cohort fertility in former Yugoslav countries, similarities and differences between the countries, and their possible clustering. Do former Yugoslav countries exhibit persistent diversity to this day, or is there convergence in terms of cohort fertility behaviour? If so, what might account for this homogeneity within Yugoslavia’s heterogeneity? We trace how fertility behaviour changed from the turn of the twentieth century, when Yugoslav countries began their progression from agrarian into industrial capitalist societies. We consider the factors related to a rapid transformation to socialist modernity after 1945 and proceed to investigate the federation’s breakup and the successor states’ transitions to market economies in the early 1990s. Our study thus covers a century of socioeconomic and fertility developments within the region. We analyse census data on children born by means of the completed cohort fertility rate, parity progression ratios, and parity composition. Our results show that while fertility levels decreased in all former Yugoslav republics, this happened at different speeds and taking different paths. Parity progression to higher birth orders was particularly responsible for this development, as well as for the differences and similarities between the respective republics. Former Yugoslav republics are clustered into three groups, where Croatia, Slovenia, and Serbia form the low fertility group, and Bosnia-Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Montenegro belong to a higher fertility group. Kosovo remains a special case with exceptionally high fertility in the European context. We conclude that this clustering stems from a complex interplay of historical, political, economic and social factors.

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Estimation of Cohort Fertility Using Parity Progression Ratio

Curriculum Development Journal ◽

10.3126/cdj.v0i42.33209 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 18-28

Author(s):

Dhanendra Veer Shakya

Keyword(s):

Age Groups ◽

Fertility Level ◽

Parity Progression ◽

Birth Cohorts ◽

Number Of Children ◽

Parity Progression Ratio ◽

History Of ◽

Cohort Fertility ◽

Children Ever Born ◽

Using Data

This study attempts to analyze the levels and patterns of cohort fertility in Nepal in 2016 using data on parity progression ratios (PPRs). Simple PPRs, rather than synthetic PPRs or birth history of women, are used in this study from distribution of women by age and children ever born. Data on PPRs are used from 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey to estimate cohort fertility of currently married and all women separately. Fertility is analyzed for different birth cohorts of women, specifically for birth cohorts of age groups 45-49, 20-24, 25-29, and 30-34 years, beside overall span of reproductive ages (15-49) for different purposes. The PPRs data are employed in this study in three different ways such as PPRs itself, proportion of women with at least ‘N’ number of children ever born (CEB), and cohort fertility rates. All three measures are implied to estimate cohort fertility of both currently married and all women separately. Fertility patterns are almost similar in all the three methods and other the measures show that the level of cohort fertility is still a little higher in Nepal, although it is declining gradually over time. The completed cohort fertility is estimated at around 4 in Nepal in 2016. The contribution of this article will be to check fertility level by applying this simple, but less common, method in estimating cohort fertility.

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The Association between Conditional Cash Transfer Programmes and Cohort Fertility: Evidence from Brazil

Comparative Population Studies ◽

10.12765/cpos-2021-08 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 46 ◽

Author(s):

Camila Ferreira Soares ◽

Everton Emanuel Campos de Lima

Keyword(s):

Social Inequalities ◽

Conditional Cash Transfer ◽

Cash Transfer ◽

Parity Progression ◽

Monetary Transfers ◽

Bolsa Familia ◽

History Of ◽

Cohort Fertility ◽

Reproductive Cycles ◽

The Relationship

Brazil’s Bolsa Família Programme (BFP) aims to combat poverty and social inequalities through monetary transfers to families. A much-discussed indirect effect of the programme was its correlation to the fertility of the beneficiary families. In this paper, we use a cohort fertility approach with parity progression ratios that differs from existing literature, which mainly used period fertility measures, to better understand the relationship between fertility and the BFP. This study analyses the relationship between the BFP and the reproduction of Brazilian women. We use data from the 2010 Brazilian micro-censuses, the only census after the start of the BFP in 2004, to reconstruct the childbirth history of women with incomplete reproductive cycles (women aged 25 to 29), and estimate parity progression ratios (PPRs) and cohort fertility rates (CFR). In addition, we estimate propensity score matching (PSM) models comparing fertility outcomes of beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of the programme. Our results show distinct differences in CFRs and PPRs. On average, BFP beneficiaries had more children than women not covered by the programme. This finding remained consistent even after controlling for educational gradients and other covariates. Our empirical findings show that women opt for a “rational” strategy, where they tend to have children in more rapid succession up until three children. These findings contradict the recent literature that has not found any correlation between BFP and fertility. The results also suggest that cohort analyses may fill certain gaps left by previous studies of period fertility. This paper is one of a few that have analysed the relationship between a conditional income transfer programme and cohort measures in Brazil.

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DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH STATUS RISK FACTORS IN CHILDBEARING AMONG INDIAN WOMEN. EVIDENCE FROM HOSPITAL DATA FOR THE LATER STAGES OF FERTILITY DECLINE

Journal of Biosocial Science ◽

10.1017/s0021932000001917 ◽

2000 ◽

Vol 32 (2) ◽

pp. 191-206 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

KIRSTY MCNAY

Keyword(s):

Health Status ◽

Maternal Mortality ◽

Fertility Decline ◽

Poor Health ◽

Low Fertility ◽

Hospital Data ◽

Poor Health Status ◽

Maternal Deaths ◽

Pregnancy And Childbirth ◽

Increase In Risk

Indirect estimates of maternal mortality in India indicate that fertility decline has reduced maternal deaths by reducing the frequency of pregnancy and childbirth. The earlier stages of fertility decline are also likely to have lowered maternal mortality by reducing the risk of pregnancy and childbirth as the proportion of births among risky multiparous, older women declines. However, further fertility decline may well be associated with some increase in risk. Risk will also remain high if the health status of Indian girls and women remains poor. This study uses a sample of maternal deaths and deliveries among patients who survived which occurred in Civil Hospital, Ahmedabad, Gujarat during 1982–1993 to investigate these issues further. The women in the sample have relatively low fertility and represent a fairly late stage of fertility decline. They also have persistently poor health status. Logit regression analysis reveals that although fertility decline is associated with some increase in risk, poor health status is the more important maternal mortality risk factor. Without attention to female health, even childbearing among expectant mothers with low fertility continues to be hazardous.

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The Iranian Fertility Decline, 1981-1999: An Application of the Synthetic Parity Progression Ratio Method

Population (English Edition) ◽

10.3917/pope.605.0701 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 61 (5) ◽

pp. 701 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi ◽

Peter McDonald ◽

Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi

Keyword(s):

Fertility Decline ◽

Ratio Method ◽

Parity Progression ◽

Parity Progression Ratio

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Age Specific and Differential Fertility in Durham and Easington Registration Districts, England, 1851 and 1861

Social Science History ◽

10.1017/s0145553200022288 ◽

1977 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 23-52 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Michael R. Haines

Keyword(s):

Fertility Decline ◽

The United States ◽

Extensive Study ◽

Low Fertility ◽

Differential Fertility ◽

Specific Data ◽

Fertility Differentials ◽

Secular Decline ◽

Indirect Standardization ◽

Data Constraints

The current interest in fertility decline and the demographic transition has led to extensive study of the secular decline of fertility in countries and sub-regions of presently low fertility. Extensive work has been completed or is underway regarding Europe in connection with Ansley Coale’s European Fertility Project. In addition, considerable attention has been paid to fertility in the demographic experience of the United States, and to other areas which have experienced fertility decline. One problem with most historical fertility studies is that they lack data on age-specific fertility and also on fertility differentials. So, for example, the European Fertility Project has relied on a form of indirect standardization, the indices of overall fertility (If), marital fertility (Ig), illegitimate fertility (Ih), and proportions married (Im), to compensate for the lack of age-specific data. There are similar historical data constraints on some types of differential fertility categorizations (e.g., social class, literacy, occupation, nativity).

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