Money and inflation in Switzerland

This paper characterizes the relationship between monetary aggregates, inflation and economic activity in Switzerland since the mid-1970s. Traditional forms of money demand and quantity theory relationships have remained stable over the whole period. Broad money excesses over trend values, accounting for a secular decline in interest rates and thus in trend velocity, have been followed by persistently higher inflation and output with the usual monetary policy transmission lags. Money and exchange rate fluctuations can explain the major inflation developments in Switzerland over the past four decades.

National polarization and international agreements

The network of international environmental agreements (IEAs) has been characterized as a complex adaptive system (CAS) in which the uncoordinated responses of nation states to changes in the conditions addressed by particular agreements may generate seemingly coordinated patterns of behavior at the level of the system. Unfortunately, since the rules governing national responses are ill understood, it is not currently possible to implement a CAS approach. Polarization of both political parties and the electorate has been implicated in a secular decline in national commitment to some IEAs, but the causal mechanisms are not clear. In this paper, we explore the impact of polarization on the rules underpinning national responses. We identify the degree to which responsibility for national decisions is shared across political parties and calculate the electoral cost of party positions as national obligations under an agreement change. We find that polarization typically affects the degree but not the direction of national responses. Whether national commitment to IEAs strengthens or weakens as national obligations increase depends more on the change in national obligations than on polarization per se. Where the rules governing national responses are conditioned by the current political environment, so are the dynamic consequences both for the agreement itself and for the network to which it belongs. Any CAS analysis requires an understanding of such conditioning effects on the rules governing national responses.

Revisiting voluntarism: Private voluntary regulation by Employer Forums in the United Kingdom

The abstract contributes to the literature by identifying a new form of voluntarism, the employer-led voluntarism of Employer Forums in the United Kingdom. Forums carry out private voluntary regulation to raise labour and social standards within their member firms through introducing codes of conducts and implementing norms through assessments, benchmarking, and certification. The article compares this new form with the traditional approach where unions and employer associations regulate jointly through collective bargaining. While the scope, scale, and impact of new and traditional voluntarism diverge, both are underpinned by the regulation of Employment Relations by non-state actors. Voluntarism is not in secular decline, but instead continues through the emergence of new employer-led forms.

Infant Mortality in England, 1538-2000: Stability and the Beginnings of Change, 1837-1910

This paper, the third of four, discusses infant mortality during the Victorian and Edwardian periods, 1837-1910. It mainly uses sources generated by the civil registration of vital events, which was established in 1837, to identify trends and patterns, and more importantly, it discusses the beginnings of the secular decline in infant mortality that occurred during this period. The paper also includes examples of how research into this important topic can be carried out and it ends with suggestions for future research.

North Korea and the Geopolitics of Development

Kevin Gray and Jong-Woon Lee focus on three geopolitical 'moments' that have been crucial to the shaping of the North Korean system: colonialism, the Cold War, and the rise of China, to demonstrate how broader processes of geopolitical contestation have fundamentally shaped the emergence and subsequent development of the North Korean political economy. They argue that placing the nexus between geopolitics and development at the centre of the analysis helps explain the country's rapid catch-up industrialisation, its subsequent secular decline followed by collapse in the 1990s, and why the reform process has been markedly more conservative compared to other state socialist societies. As such, they draw attention to the specificities of North Korea's experience of late development, but also place it in a broader comparative context by understanding the country not solely through the analytical lens of state socialism but also as an instance of post-colonial national development.

The Cascading Effects of Gross Motor Development and the Impact of Intervention in Early Childhood

Today's preschoolers are facing a secular decline with their motor development. Intervention, via physical education in preschool, can be effective to remediate gross motor delays. Teachers need ongoing support in order to intervene. If teachers intervene, children may be placed onto a positive developmental trajectory towards lifespan health. Children's gains in gross motor can transcend into other domains of development. Thus, the author urges early childhood policymakers to strongly consider hiring a licensed physical educator to implement daily physical education to preschoolers to maximize positive developmental trajectories of health. If these policy changes do not occur, children may continue on their secular decline with deleterious consequences across multiple developmental domains and school readiness.

Bank Lending in the Knowledge Economy

We study the composition of bank loan portfolios during the transition of the real sector to a knowledge economy where firms increasingly use intangible capital. Exploiting heterogeneity in bank exposure to the compositional shift from tangible to intangible capital, we show that exposed banks curtail commercial lending and reallocate lending to other assets, such as mortgages. We estimate that the substantial growth in intangible capital since the mid-1980s explains around 30% of the secular decline in the share of commercial lending in banks' loan portfolios. We provide suggestive evidence that this reallocation increased the riskiness of banks' mortgage lending.

Does Gender Status Translate into Economic Participation of Women? Certain Evidence from Kerala

Many indicators of gender inclusiveness show that Kerala has been much ahead of other states in ensuring the welfare of females. It needs to be reiterated that in both education and health, women in Kerala stand quietly at the receiving ends as the beneficiaries rather than the agents of economic and social change. The women’s inclusive way of progress does not necessarily confine itself to the widening of education and health opportunities for women. Still, it largely and more positively depends on the effective participation of women in economic activities. It is disheartening that if we probe into the status of women from these yardsticks of ‘active’ economic participation, the picture of gender equality appears more discouraging in Kerala, which has been acclaimed as a ‘model’ for not only other states in the country but also for other countries in the world. A secular decline in the Work Participation Rate for women in the labor market clearly shows that education does not aid women to add themselves to the labor market. Economists and sociologists offer many plausible explanations for this absconding nature of educated and skilled women from the labor market. The real gender inclusion and women empowerment will be fulfilled only when women start actively engaging in productive fields using their knowledge and entitlements.