scholarly journals Medición de la baja fecundidad: repensando los métodos demográficos / Measuring Low Fertility: Rethinking Demographic Methods

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 523
Author(s):  
José Antonio Ortega ◽  
Hans-Peter Kholer
Keyword(s):  
Life Table ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Parity Progression ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Fertility Measure ◽  
Tempo Change ◽  
Demographic Methods ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
Basic Concepts ◽  
Fertility Analysis

En el análisis de la fecundidad baja cobra importancia una serie de conceptos básicos como la progresión de paridad a partir de tablas de vida –aquí llamadas tablas de fecundidad–, y la consideración de los efectos de los cambios de calendario sobre las tasas de fecundidad observadas. En este artículo se presenta la génesis histórica de estos conceptos y su relación con otros similares –como la traslación demográfica–, acompañados de ejemplos de aplicación en el análisis de la fecundidad de periodo y de cohorte. Algunas investigaciones recientes, entre las que se incluyen las de los autores, permiten hoy en día obtener intensidades de fecundidad ajustadas por calendario, a partir de las cuales se pueden conseguir todo tipo de medidas de fecundidad de periodo libres de efectos calendario o proyectar la fecundidad a partir del método de progresión de paridad. AbstractIn a low fertility context there are a number of basic concepts that become more relevant for the analysis of fertility, such as parity progression analysis through life-table methods, here called fertility tables, and the consideration of the effects of tempo change on observed fertility rates. In this articles, these ideas are presented together with their historical genesis and their relationship to similar concepts such as demographic translation, together with examples of application to both period and cohort fertility analysis. Recent research, including research done by the authors, allow us today to estimate tempo-ad­justed fertility intensities that can be used to obtain any tempo-adjusted period fertility measure or parity-progression fertility projections.

scholarly journals Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries: Decomposition using parity progression ratios

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 ◽  
pp. 651-690 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krystof Zeman ◽  
Éva Beaujouan ◽  
Zuzanna Brzozowska ◽  
Tomáš Sobotka
Keyword(s):  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Parity Progression ◽  
Cohort Fertility

scholarly journals Cohort Fertility, Parity Progression, and Family Size in Former Yugoslav Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Čipin ◽  
Kryštof Zeman ◽  
Petra Međimurec
Keyword(s):  
Census Data ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Parity Progression ◽  
Fertility Behaviour ◽  
Transition Pathways ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
Political Economic ◽  
Special Case ◽  
Rapid Transformation

Yugoslavia was a union of countries at the crossroads of cultures, rich in diversity, bringing together heterogeneous populations with very different demographic transition pathways, particularly with respect to fertility. This paper studies the trends and patterns of cohort fertility in former Yugoslav countries, similarities and differences between the countries, and their possible clustering. Do former Yugoslav countries exhibit persistent diversity to this day, or is there convergence in terms of cohort fertility behaviour? If so, what might account for this homogeneity within Yugoslavia’s heterogeneity? We trace how fertility behaviour changed from the turn of the twentieth century, when Yugoslav countries began their progression from agrarian into industrial capitalist societies. We consider the factors related to a rapid transformation to socialist modernity after 1945 and proceed to investigate the federation’s breakup and the successor states’ transitions to market economies in the early 1990s. Our study thus covers a century of socioeconomic and fertility developments within the region. We analyse census data on children born by means of the completed cohort fertility rate, parity progression ratios, and parity composition. Our results show that while fertility levels decreased in all former Yugoslav republics, this happened at different speeds and taking different paths. Parity progression to higher birth orders was particularly responsible for this development, as well as for the differences and similarities between the respective republics. Former Yugoslav republics are clustered into three groups, where Croatia, Slovenia, and Serbia form the low fertility group, and Bosnia-Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Montenegro belong to a higher fertility group. Kosovo remains a special case with exceptionally high fertility in the European context. We conclude that this clustering stems from a complex interplay of historical, political, economic and social factors.

scholarly journals Exploring age-specific and cumulative cohort rates using composite fertility lattice plots: an international comparison of Human Fertility database and Human Fertility Collection data

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serena Pattaro ◽  
Laura Vanderbloemen ◽  
Jonathan Minton
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Region ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Fertility Level ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Contour Maps ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Contour Lines ◽  
Human Fertility ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
Geographic Regions

BACKGROUNDThe Human Fertility Database (HFD), and the related Human Fertility Collection (HFC), provide highly disaggregated data on age-specific fertility rates for 45 countries. These sources provide a wealth of opportunity for learning about the development of different pathways of transition to low fertility both within and between countries and geographic regions. OBJECTIVEThe aim of this paper is to use composite fertility lattice plots, which combine information from different visualisation methods of the Lexis surface, such as heat maps and shaded contour plots, to explore changes in age-specific fertility rates and derived cumulative cohort fertility rates across countries and geographic regions. METHODSStandard shaded contour maps use both shade and contour to represent the same variable. In our plots we instead use colour/shade to indicate age-specific fertility rates, and a series of distinct contour lines to indicate the cumulative fertility rates reached by different cohorts at different ages. These figures are then ranked by cumulative cohort fertility rates in the last commonly observed period, and colour coded according to geographic region. RESULTSBy looking first at the thick solid contour lines from left to right in each population figure, we can see at which age different cohorts either reached or last reached replacement fertility levels. Other contours help understand the degree of shortfall below replacement levels for different cohorts. It appears that, once countries have fallen below a replacement fertility level, they tend to not return to it. Exceptions are Norway and the USA, which saw rising fertility rates for cohorts born after 1950s and late 1960s, respectively. The age-specific fertility trends, as well as broader political and socioeconomic conditions in these countries, are very different, suggesting different paths by which replacement fertility rates can be achieved.

scholarly journals Cohort Fertility Decline in Low Fertility Countries: Decomposition Using Parity Progression Ratios

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 1-41
Author(s):  
Kryštof Zeman ◽  
Éva Beaujouan ◽  
Zuzanna Brzozowska ◽  
Tomáš Sobotka
Keyword(s):  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Parity Progression ◽  
Cohort Fertility

scholarly journals Fertility in Austria, Germany and Switzerland:Is there a Common Pattern?

2012 ◽  
Vol 36 (2-3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomáš Sobotka
Keyword(s):  
Living Arrangements ◽  
Maternal Employment ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Common Pattern ◽  
Eastern Germany ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Cohort Fertility

This article reviews major similarities and differences in period and cohort fertility in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. These three countries share a long history of low fertility and currently belong to countries with the lowest cohort fertility rates globally. The study highlights persistent differences in fertility and family patterns between Eastern and Western Germany, which are often rooted in pre-unification contrasts and can be partly linked to continuing differences in institutional set-up and norms on organised childcare, living arrangements and maternal employment. The remarkable stability in period fertility over the last 30 years (with the exception of Eastern Germany) is illustrated with various indicators and discussed on the backdrop of recent reversals in European fertility trends. This stability in fertility levels contrasts with the long-term shift in childbearing towards less stable living arrangements (especially in Eastern Germany), including a high share of single mothers. The study also discusses a relatively small but persistent negative impact of the ongoing shift towards a late timing of childbearing on period fertility in the region. It highlights the educational gradient in fertility, which can be largely attributed to elevated childlessness rates among women with a higher educational degree. Migrant women have on average higher fertility rates than “native-born” women, but their net positive impact on aggregate fertility rates has diminished over time and has become negligible in Germany. A concluding discussion suggests that Austria, Germany and Switzerland share a common pattern of low fertility that sets these countries apart from other regions in Europe.

scholarly journals Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991–2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1052
Author(s):  
Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir ◽  
Gianluca Egidi ◽  
Rosanna Salvia ◽  
Luca Salvati ◽  
Adele Sateriano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Urban Sustainability ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Economic Expansion ◽  
Metropolitan Regions ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
Economic Downturns ◽  
Quasi Experiment

Fertility is a spatially non-stationary property of regional demographic systems. Despite the wealth of quantitative (micro–macro) information delineating short-term population dynamics in advanced economies, the contribution of economic downturns to local fertility has still been under-investigated along urban–rural gradients, especially in low-fertility contexts. Recent studies have assumed suburban fertility rates as systematically higher than urban and rural fertility rates. This assumption (hereafter known as the “suburban fertility hypothesis”) has been grounded on stylized facts and spatial regularities in advanced economies that reflect a significant role of both macro (contextual) and micro (behavioral) factors that positively influence fertility in suburban locations. To test the suburban fertility hypothesis at the macro-scale, the present study compares gross fertility rates from seven regional units of the Athens metropolitan area between 1991 and 2018. A refined spatial analysis of gross fertility rates during an economic expansion (1999–2008) and recession (2009–2018) was carried out in 115 urban, suburban, and rural municipalities of the same area. Experiencing sequential waves of economic expansion and recession, Athens’ socio-demographic dynamics were considered a sort of “quasi-experiment” for Southern Europe, linking late suburbanization with the multiple impacts of (rapid) economic downturns. Compared with both urban and rural locations, a higher fertility rate in suburban municipalities (15–20 km away from downtown Athens) was observed during the study period. However, a subtle distinction was observed during the economic expansion versus the recession. In the first period, the highest birth rates were recorded in industrial locations west of Athens, hosting economically disadvantaged communities with a relatively young population structure. With the recession, the highest fertility was associated with residential and service-specialized (wealthier) locations east of Athens, attracting resident population from neighboring areas, and better responding to crisis. The results of our study document how recent urban expansion and economic downturns have intrinsically shaped fertility dynamics, with implications for urban sustainability and social cohesion of metropolitan regions.

scholarly journals The length of the dry season may be associated with leaf scleromorphism in cerrado plants

2015 ◽  
Vol 87 (3) ◽  
pp. 1691-1699 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARCELO C. SOUZA ◽  
AUGUSTO C. FRANCO ◽  
MUNDAYATAN HARIDASAN ◽  
DAVI R. ROSSATTO ◽  
JANAÍNA F. DE ARAÚJO ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Fertility ◽  
Specific Leaf Area ◽  
Woody Species ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Core Region ◽  
The Other ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Cerrado Vegetation ◽  
Central Brazil

Despite limitations of low fertility and high acidity of the soils, the cerrado flora is the richest amongst savannas. Many cerrado woody species show sclerophyllous leaves, which might be related to the availability of water and nutrients in the soil. To better understand the function and structure of cerrado vegetation within its own variations, we compared two cerrado communities: one in its core region in central Brazil (Brasília, DF) and the other on its southern periphery (Itirapina, SP). We contrasted the length of the dry season, soil fertility rates, leaf concentrations of N, P, K, Ca and Mg and the specific leaf area (SLA) between these communities. The dry season was shorter on the periphery, where the soil was more fertile although more acidic. Plants from the periphery showed higher SLA and higher leaf concentrations of N, P, Ca and Mg. We propose that the higher SLA of plants from the periphery is related to the shorter dry season, which allows better conditions for nutrient uptake.

scholarly journals How many children does Serbia need?

Stanovnistvo ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 42 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 29-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Branislav Djurdjev
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Family Planning Program ◽  
Linear Interpolation ◽  
Parity Progression ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Replacement Level ◽  
Planning Program ◽  
The Third ◽  
Reproductive Life ◽  
Reproductive Life Span

The work is an attempt to determine basic quantities for introducing a family planning program which will be aiming at a replacement level. In order to do that census year 2002 was taken as an example for calculation. Total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman was considered as necessary level and that means Serbia needs 105.000 newborns each year. In accordance with that level a set of five age specific fertility rates (ASFR) were established in order to find appropriate model of reproductive behavior for Serbia. The sets are established in the following manner: multiplying ASFR by quotient between necessary and real number of newborns, by the data from the last year when fertility was large enough to provide for replacement level (with mortality level from 2002), by linear interpolation between two ASFR models and by Brass fertility polynomial. All five different models of age specific fertility rates suggest that there is no ideal distribution of ASFR. Also parity progression from zero to first, from first to second, and from second to third child is determined. The main reason for below replacement level in Serbia is small parity progression from second to third child. So, rearing the third child should be the most stimulated in every family planning program, as long as every second women have them by the end of her reproductive life span.

scholarly journals Has fertility increased at very high levels of development?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hampton Gray Gaddy
Keyword(s):  
Human Development Index ◽  
National Level ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Clear Relationship ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
The Past ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Very High

Increasing development is historically associated with fertility declines. However, demographic paradigms disagree about whether that relationship should hold at very high levels of development. Using national-level data through 2005, Myrskylä, Kohler, and Billari (2009) found that very high levels of the Human Development Index (HDI) were associated with increasing total fertility rates (TFR). This paper updates that finding with data up to 2017. It investigates whether the observed association has continued to hold for the countries originally studied and whether it holds for countries that have more recently reached very high HDI. For countries that reached HDI ≥ 0.8 in 2000 or before (n=27), the data indicate no clear relationship between changes in HDI and TFR at HDI ≥ 0.8. There is also no clear relationship for countries that reached HDI ≥ 0.8 between 2001 and 2010 (n=13). For countries that reached HDI ≥ 0.8 in 2000 or before, there appear to have been notable increases in TFR between 2000 and 2010, but those gains appear to have completely reversed between 2010 and 2017. The past finding of TFR increases at very high levels of development has not borne out in recent years. In fact, TFRs declined markedly in very high development countries between 2010 and 2017. This paper contributes to the debate over the relationship between development and fertility. That debate has an important bearing on how low fertility is conceived by social scientists and policymakers.

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