The Association between Conditional Cash Transfer Programmes and Cohort Fertility: Evidence from Brazil

Brazil’s Bolsa Família Programme (BFP) aims to combat poverty and social inequalities through monetary transfers to families. A much-discussed indirect effect of the programme was its correlation to the fertility of the beneficiary families. In this paper, we use a cohort fertility approach with parity progression ratios that differs from existing literature, which mainly used period fertility measures, to better understand the relationship between fertility and the BFP. This study analyses the relationship between the BFP and the reproduction of Brazilian women. We use data from the 2010 Brazilian micro-censuses, the only census after the start of the BFP in 2004, to reconstruct the childbirth history of women with incomplete reproductive cycles (women aged 25 to 29), and estimate parity progression ratios (PPRs) and cohort fertility rates (CFR). In addition, we estimate propensity score matching (PSM) models comparing fertility outcomes of beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of the programme. Our results show distinct differences in CFRs and PPRs. On average, BFP beneficiaries had more children than women not covered by the programme. This finding remained consistent even after controlling for educational gradients and other covariates. Our empirical findings show that women opt for a “rational” strategy, where they tend to have children in more rapid succession up until three children. These findings contradict the recent literature that has not found any correlation between BFP and fertility. The results also suggest that cohort analyses may fill certain gaps left by previous studies of period fertility. This paper is one of a few that have analysed the relationship between a conditional income transfer programme and cohort measures in Brazil.

Fertility Trends in European Countries

This work is intended as an attempt to illustrate and compare the pattern of fertility in European countries: Belarus, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland. It deals with the analysis of fertility trends, with an emphasis on birth by parity. Using data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD) from the year 2016, it has considered the parameters of parity progression ratios (PPR), projected parity progression ratios (PPPR), age‑specific fertility rates (ASFR), age‑order specific fertility rates (AOSFR), and cumulated order‑specific fertility rates accordingly analysed. We have applied indicators known as the projected parity progression ratios to estimate trends of fertility. These offer a more detailed view of the family formation process than the traditional total fertility rate (TFR).

Estimation of Cohort Fertility Using Parity Progression Ratio

This study attempts to analyze the levels and patterns of cohort fertility in Nepal in 2016 using data on parity progression ratios (PPRs). Simple PPRs, rather than synthetic PPRs or birth history of women, are used in this study from distribution of women by age and children ever born. Data on PPRs are used from 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey to estimate cohort fertility of currently married and all women separately. Fertility is analyzed for different birth cohorts of women, specifically for birth cohorts of age groups 45-49, 20-24, 25-29, and 30-34 years, beside overall span of reproductive ages (15-49) for different purposes. The PPRs data are employed in this study in three different ways such as PPRs itself, proportion of women with at least ‘N’ number of children ever born (CEB), and cohort fertility rates. All three measures are implied to estimate cohort fertility of both currently married and all women separately. Fertility patterns are almost similar in all the three methods and other the measures show that the level of cohort fertility is still a little higher in Nepal, although it is declining gradually over time. The completed cohort fertility is estimated at around 4 in Nepal in 2016. The contribution of this article will be to check fertility level by applying this simple, but less common, method in estimating cohort fertility.

Cohort Fertility, Parity Progression, and Family Size in Former Yugoslav Countries

Yugoslavia was a union of countries at the crossroads of cultures, rich in diversity, bringing together heterogeneous populations with very different demographic transition pathways, particularly with respect to fertility. This paper studies the trends and patterns of cohort fertility in former Yugoslav countries, similarities and differences between the countries, and their possible clustering. Do former Yugoslav countries exhibit persistent diversity to this day, or is there convergence in terms of cohort fertility behaviour? If so, what might account for this homogeneity within Yugoslavia’s heterogeneity? We trace how fertility behaviour changed from the turn of the twentieth century, when Yugoslav countries began their progression from agrarian into industrial capitalist societies. We consider the factors related to a rapid transformation to socialist modernity after 1945 and proceed to investigate the federation’s breakup and the successor states’ transitions to market economies in the early 1990s. Our study thus covers a century of socioeconomic and fertility developments within the region. We analyse census data on children born by means of the completed cohort fertility rate, parity progression ratios, and parity composition. Our results show that while fertility levels decreased in all former Yugoslav republics, this happened at different speeds and taking different paths. Parity progression to higher birth orders was particularly responsible for this development, as well as for the differences and similarities between the respective republics. Former Yugoslav republics are clustered into three groups, where Croatia, Slovenia, and Serbia form the low fertility group, and Bosnia-Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Montenegro belong to a higher fertility group. Kosovo remains a special case with exceptionally high fertility in the European context. We conclude that this clustering stems from a complex interplay of historical, political, economic and social factors.

Parity disparity: Educational differences in Nordic fertility across parities and number of reproductive partners

Most research on trends in socioeconomic fertility differences focus on cohort total fertility.This study asks how cohort trends in parity-specific fertility differ across educationalsegments for men and women, and what role multi-partner fertility plays in these trends. Thestudy used Finnish and Swedish register data on cohorts born in 1940–1973/1978. The mainanalyses use parity progression ratios. Ordinary ratios were contrasted with ratios on births tofirst reproductive partner. Among low- and medium-educated persons we observe paritypolarization, where both childlessness and higher parity (3+) births increase, largelyreflecting increases in multi-partner fertility. Highly educated men and women more oftenhave exactly two children. We demonstrate that cohort total fertility can mask significantparity-specific trends across educational groups, and that changes in multi-partner fertilitycan be a part and parcel of cohort trends in socioeconomic fertility differentials.

TREND OF SYNTHETIC PARITY PROGRESSION RATIO (SPPR) OF INDIA: EVIDENCE FROM NATIONAL FAMILY HEALTH SURVEYS

Fertility dynamics have been studied in this paper from 1977 to 2015. Regional fertility changes are analyzed using all four rounds of National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data. Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios (SPPR) and Total fertility rate (based on PPR) are used to analyze the fertility trend. Except for first parity, there is a decline in second and higher order birth of all the six regions. Reduction of third and higher order birth is the main reason for this decline.

Does Mothers’ Parental Leave Uptake Stimulate Continued Employment and Family Formation? Evidence for Belgium

Parental leave schemes undoubtedly facilitate the combination of work and family life during leave-taking. In addition to this instantaneous effect of parental leave uptake, a growing yet limited body of research addresses the question of subsequent effects of parental leave uptake. As work-family policies, such as parental leave, are geared towards stimulating family formation and (female) employment, this study assessed whether the individual uptake of parental leave by employed mothers after the birth of a child yielded differential parity progression and employment patterns compared to eligible employed mothers that did not take leave. Using data from the Belgian Administrative Socio-Demographic panel, we applied dynamic propensity score matching and hazard models. Our results indicate that previous leave uptake is a differentiating factor in subsequent fertility and employment outcomes, but also that (self-)selection strongly affects this relation. Descriptive analyses indicate that mothers who use leave shortly after childbearing exhibit a similar progression to second births, more third births and less fourth births, while displaying substantially lower hazards of exiting the labour force regardless of parity. However, when controlling for the fact that mothers who use parental leave exhibit a stronger pre-birth attachment to the labour force, work for larger employers in specific employment sectors, and also differ from non-users in terms of household characteristics (e.g., higher household income, more likely to be married and less likely to have a non-Belgian background), many associations between leave uptake and subsequent fertility and employment outcomes turn neutral or even negative. No indication for higher parity progression among leave users was found and the hazard of exiting the labour force was moderately higher for leave users. These empirical results are discussed in the Belgian context of low parental leave benefits, short leave entitlements and low uptake of parental leave, features which are also displayed by other Western European countries and contrast with the Nordic European countries studied in previous research.