A note on the cohort-fertility analysis in the paper ‘Patterns of low and lowest-low fertility in Europe’,Population Studies58(2): 161–176, by Francesco C. Billari and Hans-Peter Kohler

2005 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-238
Author(s):  
Tomas Frejka ◽  
Jean-Paul Sardon
Keyword(s):  
Low Fertility ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
Fertility Analysis

scholarly journals Medición de la baja fecundidad: repensando los métodos demográficos / Measuring Low Fertility: Rethinking Demographic Methods

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 523
Author(s):  
José Antonio Ortega ◽  
Hans-Peter Kholer
Keyword(s):  
Life Table ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Parity Progression ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Fertility Measure ◽  
Tempo Change ◽  
Demographic Methods ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
Basic Concepts ◽  
Fertility Analysis

En el análisis de la fecundidad baja cobra importancia una serie de conceptos básicos como la progresión de paridad a partir de tablas de vida –aquí llamadas tablas de fecundidad–, y la consideración de los efectos de los cambios de calendario sobre las tasas de fecundidad observadas. En este artículo se presenta la génesis histórica de estos conceptos y su relación con otros similares –como la traslación demográfica–, acompañados de ejemplos de aplicación en el análisis de la fecundidad de periodo y de cohorte. Algunas investigaciones recientes, entre las que se incluyen las de los autores, permiten hoy en día obtener intensidades de fecundidad ajustadas por calendario, a partir de las cuales se pueden conseguir todo tipo de medidas de fecundidad de periodo libres de efectos calendario o proyectar la fecundidad a partir del método de progresión de paridad. AbstractIn a low fertility context there are a number of basic concepts that become more relevant for the analysis of fertility, such as parity progression analysis through life-table methods, here called fertility tables, and the consideration of the effects of tempo change on observed fertility rates. In this articles, these ideas are presented together with their historical genesis and their relationship to similar concepts such as demographic translation, together with examples of application to both period and cohort fertility analysis. Recent research, including research done by the authors, allow us today to estimate tempo-ad­justed fertility intensities that can be used to obtain any tempo-adjusted period fertility measure or parity-progression fertility projections.

scholarly journals A cohort perspective on the fertility postponement transition and low fertility in Central Europe

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 109-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Branislav Šprocha ◽  
Pavol Tišliar ◽  
Luděk Šídlo
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Eastern Bloc ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Central European ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
The Postponement

Abstract Fertility postponement and the concomitant decline in fertility levels are the most prominent trends in the demographic behaviours of the former Eastern Bloc countries in Central Europe. A number of studies have analysed period fertility development but the cohort perspective is often neglected. The postponement transition has evolved over a long time span and affected many cohorts, so the cohort approach is appropriate for studying long-term changes in fertility tempo and quantum. A cohort analysis engenders an analysis in detail of the onset, dynamics and ultimate extent of this process. Using the cohort benchmark model, we have been able to pinpoint differences in postponement and recuperation levels and have combined it with projection scenarios. Thus we have been able to model the hypothetical trajectory of the completed cohort fertility rate. Our analysis highlights differences in the timing of the onset of the postponement transition, its trajectory and extent, as well as in the recuperation of postponed childbearing. These findings suggest differences in completed fertility across the selected four Central European countries are likely to continue and perhaps increase.

scholarly journals The modest demographic results of pronatalist policy against the background of the long-term evolution of fertility in Russia

2017 ◽  
pp. 4-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Zakharov
Keyword(s):  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
Reproductive Activity ◽  
Financial Measures ◽  
Media Space ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
The Government ◽  
Fertility Analysis ◽  
Expert Community ◽  
Positive Results

The idea of an extraordinary growth in fertility in Russia is widespread in the Russian expert community and media space. This increase is believed to be indicative of the positive results of the special financial measures taken by the government after 2006 to stimulate fertility. The author’s viewpoint is more reserved. There are some positive developments, but their significance is quite insufficient to view the future of Russian fertility through rose-colored glasses. With this paper, we continue our previous long-term research in the field of in-depth demographic analysis of Russian fertility, incorporating the latest official statistical data for 2014. The paper provides an overview of the trends of key fertility indicators over a few decades, as well as developing some approaches to cohort fertility analysis in order to obtain more reliable projections. In the first part, we examine period fertility indicators (for calendar years), taking into account the latest changes in the structural characteristics of the Russian model of fertility that have occurred over the past several decades. In the second part of the article, we analyse cohort fertility indicators of generations of women whose actual and expected reproductive activity has been occurring in the second half of the twentieth and the first decades of the twenty-first centuries.

scholarly journals Why the Standard TFR gives a Misleading Impression of the Fertility of Foreign Women: Insights from Switzerland

2020 ◽  
Vol 45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Burkimsher ◽  
Clémentine Rossier ◽  
Philippe Wanner
Keyword(s):  
Input Data ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Accurate Estimate ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Foreign Nationals ◽  
Foreign Population ◽  
Foreign Nationality ◽  
Reproductive Life ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
Average Fertility

Since 1971 the Swiss Federal Statistical Office has published annual fertility data split by nationality (Swiss/foreign). These indicate that the TFR for women of foreign nationality has been 0.5 children higher than for Swiss women for most of the period since 1991. However, statistics from household registration (STATPOP) and the Families and Generations Surveys (FGS) in 2013 and 2018 indicate that foreign women, approaching the end of their reproductive lives, have slightly smaller families than women of Swiss nationality. The purpose of this paper is to reconcile these contradictory fertility measures. To do this, we design a novel methodology for tallying the fertility of cohorts of Swiss and foreign nationals through their reproductive life. In addition to birth registrations and population totals by age (the input data for calculating the TFR) we also include estimates of how many children women have at the time of their immigration, emigration and naturalisation. Using these input data, we compile the fertility profiles of Swiss and foreign women aged 15-49 (cohorts 1966-2003). These correspond well with the FGS and household register data. Several processes impact the final fertility of the two sub-populations. Women frequently immigrate into Switzerland in their 20s. Often arriving childless, they commonly start childbearing soon after immigration. However, there is still a flow of low-fertility women into the country in their 30s and 40s, lowering the average fertility of the foreign population. By contrast, Swiss women start childbearing later and a significant proportion remain childless; however, after starting childbearing they have a higher propensity than foreign women to have a second and third child. Naturalisation and fertility are interlinked; women with children are more likely to naturalise than those without, which then boosts the average fertility of the Swiss population. We confirm that the standard TFR gives an inflated impression of the ultimate (cohort) fertility of foreign nationals and under-estimates that of Swiss women, and we describe how this happens. Fundamentally, the TFR is a measure of childbearing intensity, not an accurate estimate of completed cohort fertility, especially for a mobile population.

scholarly journals Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries: Decomposition using parity progression ratios

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 ◽  
pp. 651-690 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krystof Zeman ◽  
Éva Beaujouan ◽  
Zuzanna Brzozowska ◽  
Tomáš Sobotka
Keyword(s):  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Parity Progression ◽  
Cohort Fertility

scholarly journals Less is more or more is more? Union dissolution and re-partnering as an engine for fertility in a demographic forerunner context – a register based completed cohort fertility approach

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linus Andersson ◽  
Marika Jalovaara ◽  
Caroline Uggla ◽  
Jan Saarela
Keyword(s):  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Union Dissolution ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Less Is More ◽  
Marriage Premium ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Cohort Fertility

Extensive literature theorizes the role of re-partnering on cohort fertility and whether union dissolution can be an engine for fertility. A large share of higher-order unions is non-marital cohabitations. Yet, most previous completed cohort fertility studies on the topic analyze marital unions only and none have measured cohabitations using population-level data. We use Finnish register data to enumerate every birth, marriage, and cohabitation from ages 18-46 in the 1969–1972 birth cohorts, and analyze the relationship between the number of unions and cohort fertility for men and women using Poisson regression. We show that re-partnering is driven by cohabitations. Re-marriage is positively associated with cohort fertility, compared to individuals in a single intact marriage. However, when measured using marriages as well as non-marital cohabitations, re-partnering is negatively associated with fertility, compared to individuals in a single intact union. This negative association increases with socioeconomic status. “Serial cohabitation” is a strong predictor of low fertility. Men see a slight “re-marriage premium” in fertility and a (non-marital) “re-partnering penalty,” compared to women. Thus, re-partnering is likely not an efficient engine for fertility. Further, marriage and cohabitation are far from indistinguishable in a country often described as a second demographic transition forerunner.

scholarly journals Cohort Fertility, Parity Progression, and Family Size in Former Yugoslav Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Čipin ◽  
Kryštof Zeman ◽  
Petra Međimurec
Keyword(s):  
Census Data ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Parity Progression ◽  
Fertility Behaviour ◽  
Transition Pathways ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
Political Economic ◽  
Special Case ◽  
Rapid Transformation

Yugoslavia was a union of countries at the crossroads of cultures, rich in diversity, bringing together heterogeneous populations with very different demographic transition pathways, particularly with respect to fertility. This paper studies the trends and patterns of cohort fertility in former Yugoslav countries, similarities and differences between the countries, and their possible clustering. Do former Yugoslav countries exhibit persistent diversity to this day, or is there convergence in terms of cohort fertility behaviour? If so, what might account for this homogeneity within Yugoslavia’s heterogeneity? We trace how fertility behaviour changed from the turn of the twentieth century, when Yugoslav countries began their progression from agrarian into industrial capitalist societies. We consider the factors related to a rapid transformation to socialist modernity after 1945 and proceed to investigate the federation’s breakup and the successor states’ transitions to market economies in the early 1990s. Our study thus covers a century of socioeconomic and fertility developments within the region. We analyse census data on children born by means of the completed cohort fertility rate, parity progression ratios, and parity composition. Our results show that while fertility levels decreased in all former Yugoslav republics, this happened at different speeds and taking different paths. Parity progression to higher birth orders was particularly responsible for this development, as well as for the differences and similarities between the respective republics. Former Yugoslav republics are clustered into three groups, where Croatia, Slovenia, and Serbia form the low fertility group, and Bosnia-Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Montenegro belong to a higher fertility group. Kosovo remains a special case with exceptionally high fertility in the European context. We conclude that this clustering stems from a complex interplay of historical, political, economic and social factors.

scholarly journals Exploring age-specific and cumulative cohort rates using composite fertility lattice plots: an international comparison of Human Fertility database and Human Fertility Collection data

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serena Pattaro ◽  
Laura Vanderbloemen ◽  
Jonathan Minton
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Region ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Fertility Level ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Contour Maps ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Contour Lines ◽  
Human Fertility ◽  
Cohort Fertility ◽  
Geographic Regions

BACKGROUNDThe Human Fertility Database (HFD), and the related Human Fertility Collection (HFC), provide highly disaggregated data on age-specific fertility rates for 45 countries. These sources provide a wealth of opportunity for learning about the development of different pathways of transition to low fertility both within and between countries and geographic regions. OBJECTIVEThe aim of this paper is to use composite fertility lattice plots, which combine information from different visualisation methods of the Lexis surface, such as heat maps and shaded contour plots, to explore changes in age-specific fertility rates and derived cumulative cohort fertility rates across countries and geographic regions. METHODSStandard shaded contour maps use both shade and contour to represent the same variable. In our plots we instead use colour/shade to indicate age-specific fertility rates, and a series of distinct contour lines to indicate the cumulative fertility rates reached by different cohorts at different ages. These figures are then ranked by cumulative cohort fertility rates in the last commonly observed period, and colour coded according to geographic region. RESULTSBy looking first at the thick solid contour lines from left to right in each population figure, we can see at which age different cohorts either reached or last reached replacement fertility levels. Other contours help understand the degree of shortfall below replacement levels for different cohorts. It appears that, once countries have fallen below a replacement fertility level, they tend to not return to it. Exceptions are Norway and the USA, which saw rising fertility rates for cohorts born after 1950s and late 1960s, respectively. The age-specific fertility trends, as well as broader political and socioeconomic conditions in these countries, are very different, suggesting different paths by which replacement fertility rates can be achieved.

scholarly journals Cohort Fertility Decline in Low Fertility Countries: Decomposition Using Parity Progression Ratios

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 1-41
Author(s):  
Kryštof Zeman ◽  
Éva Beaujouan ◽  
Zuzanna Brzozowska ◽  
Tomáš Sobotka
Keyword(s):  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Parity Progression ◽  
Cohort Fertility
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